Monica Veale Yesildirek

USGS2023

The use of historical data and global climate models to assess historical and future surface water and groundwater availability in the Trinity River Basin in Texas

This paper describes the results of a study that was done by the USGS to assess recent (2017) water availability, forecast long-term trends in water availability, assess changes in water availability, and forecast future water availability in the Trinity River Basin in Texas. The Trinity River Basin surface water model and Trinity River alluvium aquifer (TRAA) groundwater model were created to evaluate future conditions under different global climate models (GCM). The results of this study show minimal overall changes in water availability for both surface water and groundwater. Trend analyses using historical data (1900–2017) indicated an increase of annual precipitation on the watersheds that drain into the reservoirs in Regional Water Planning Group C. However, the Trinity River Basin surface water model GCM ensemble mean annual precipitation indicates a downward trend, resulting in a downward trend in surface runoff. Additionally, the GCM ensemble mean for the Trinity River Basin surface water model and the TRAA groundwater model both indicate a downward trend in recharge while the TRAA model GCM ensemble mean indicates an upward trend in the amount of groundwater leaving the aquifer to rivers and streams resulting in an upward trend of cumulative storage change.

Texas↗

USGS2021

Technique to estimate generalized skew coefficients of annual peak streamflow for natural watershed conditions in Texas, Oklahoma, and eastern New Mexico

Reliable information about the frequency of annual peak streamflow is needed for floodplain management, objective assessment of flood risk, and cost-effective design of dams, levees, other flood-control structures, and roads, bridges, and culverts. Generalized skew coefficients are among the data needed for log-Pearson type III peak-streamflow frequency analyses of annual peak streamflows. A technique is presented to estimate generalized skew coefficients used for log-Pearson type III peak-streamflow frequency analyses of annual peak streamflow from natural watersheds (minimal regulation and minimal impervious cover). The estimation of generalized skew coefficients was based on annual and historical peak streamflow data from an initial set of 444 selected USGS streamgaging stations (streamgages) with at least 30 years of recorded annual peak streamflows from natural watersheds in Texas, Oklahoma, and the part of New Mexico east of the Great Continental Divide. The primary focus was to obtain information that could be used to update previously published generalized skew coefficients in Texas. Of the 444 candidate streamgages, 341 were used in the final construction of statistical models. Two generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to predict generalized skew based on a 2-dimensional smooth on projected Albers equal area coordinates of either (1) the locations of the centroids of the gaged watersheds or (2) the streamgage locations. To create maps of generalized skew coefficients, predictions were made on a 1-kilometer grid and contour lines were superimposed. The centroid-location map, with a mean-squared error (MSE) of 0.216, is preferred. Generalized skew coefficients from the centroid-location map, along with the MSE, are useful for computing weighted-skew values when conducting frequency analyses of annual peak streamflow following the guidelines set forth in Bulletin 17C. Based on the results of the study, text revision of the TxDOT Hydraulic Design Manual could be made.

New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗