Geology topics

Molly Bletz

Publications and source records attributed to Molly Bletz.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Quantitative support for the benefits of proactive management for wildlife disease control

Finding effective pathogen mitigation strategies is one of the biggest challenges humans face today. In the context of wildlife, emerging infectious diseases have repeatedly caused widespread host morbidity and population declines of numerous taxa. In areas yet unaffected by a pathogen, a proactive management approach has the potential to minimize or prevent host mortality. However, typically critical information on disease dynamics in a novel host system is lacking, empirical evidence on efficacy of management interventions is limited, and there is a lack of validated predictive models. As such, quantitative support for identifying effective management interventions is largely absent, and the opportunity for proactive management is often missed. We considered the potential invasion of the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal), whose expected emergence in North America poses a severe threat to hundreds of salamander species in this global salamander biodiversity hotspot. We developed and parameterized a dynamic multistate occupancy model to forecast host and pathogen occurrence, following expected emergence of the pathogen, and evaluated the response of salamander populations to different management scenarios. Our model forecasted that taking no action is expected to be catastrophic to salamander populations. Proactive action was predicted to maximize host occupancy outcomes relative to wait-and-see reactive management, thus providing quantitative support for proactive management opportunities. The eradication of Bsal was unlikely under all the evaluated management options. Contrary to our expectations, even early pathogen detection had little effect on Bsal or host occupancy outcomes. Our results provide quantitative support that proactive management is the optimal strategy for promoting persistence of disease-threatened salamander populations. Our approach fills a critical gap by defining a framework for evaluating management options prior to pathogen invasion and can thus serve as a template for addressing novel disease threats that jeopardize wildlife and human health.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2024

Reframing wildlife disease management problems with decision analysis

Contemporary wildlife disease management is complex because managers need to respond to a wide range of stakeholders, multiple uncertainties, and difficult trade-offs that characterize the interconnected challenges of today. Despite general acknowledgment of these complexities, managing wildlife disease tends to be framed as a scientific problem, in which the major challenge is lack of knowledge. The complex and multifactorial process of decision-making is collapsed into a scientific endeavor to reduce uncertainty. As a result, contemporary decision-making may be oversimplified, rely on simple heuristics, and fail to account for the broader legal, social, and economic context in which the decisions are made. Concurrently, scientific research on wildlife disease may be distant from this decision context, resulting in information that may not be directly relevant to the pertinent management questions. We propose reframing wildlife disease management challenges as decision problems and addressing them with decision analytical tools to divide the complex problems into more cognitively manageable elements. In particular, structured decision-making has the potential to improve the quality, rigor, and transparency of decisions about wildlife disease in a variety of systems. Examples of management of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, white-nose syndrome, avian influenza, and chytridiomycosis illustrate the most common impediments to decision-making, including competing objectives, risks, prediction uncertainty, and limited resources.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2024

Preparing for a Bsal invasion into North America has improved multi-sector readiness

Western palearctic salamander susceptibility to the skin disease caused by the amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) was recognized in 2014, eliciting concerns for a potential novel wave of amphibian declines following the B. dendrobatidis (Bd) chytridiomycosis global pandemic. Although Bsal had not been detected in North America, initial experimental trials supported the heightened susceptibility of caudate amphibians to Bsal chytridiomycosis, recognizing the critical threat this pathogen poses to the North American salamander biodiversity hotspot. Here, we take stock of 10 years of research, collaboration, engagement, and outreach by the North American Bsal Task Force. We summarize main knowledge and conservation actions to both forestall and respond to Bsal invasion into North America. We address the questions: what have we learned; what are current challenges; and are we ready for a more effective reaction to Bsal’s eventual detection? We expect that the many contributions to preemptive planning accrued over the past decade will pay dividends in amphibian conservation effectiveness and can inform future responses to other novel wildlife diseases and extreme threats.

North America↗

USGS2019

Conservation decisions under pressure: Lessons from an exercise in rapid response to wildlife disease

Novel outbreaks of emerging pathogens require rapid responses to enable successful mitigation. We simulated a 1‐day emergency meeting where experts were engaged to recommend mitigation strategies for a new outbreak of the amphibian fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans . Despite the inevitable uncertainty, experts suggested and discussed several possible strategies. However, their recommendations were undermined by imperfect initial definitions of the objectives and scope of management. This problem is likely to arise in most real‐world emergency situations. The exercise thus highlighted the importance of clearly defining the context, objectives, and spatial–temporal scale of mitigation decisions. Managers are commonly under pressure to act immediately. However, an iterative process in which experts and managers cooperate to clarify objectives and uncertainties, while collecting more information and devising mitigation strategies, may be slightly more time consuming but ultimately lead to better outcomes.

Conservation Science and Practice↗