Geology topics

Mick Van der Wegen

Publications and source records attributed to Mick Van der Wegen.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

Observations and morphodynamic modeling of decadal-scale morphologic change in estuaries under sea level rise

Sea level rise is expected to affect coastal areas all around the world, including the estuarine environment. New bathymetry collected in 2014 provided a unique opportunity to test the modeling of Elmilady et al. (2019), who presented a morphodynamic DELFT3D model of San Pablo Bay, California, that included detailed tidal water movement, wind-wave action, sediment transport, and resulting bed level updates. Their hindcasts (1856–1983) showed significant skill in reproducing observed patterns and volumes of deposition and erosion in San Pablo Bay. Their forecasts (1983–2100) showed that sea level rise results in increased deposition, loss of intertidal flats because of drowning, and a greater channel volume. The model, in general, forecasted observed trends in change from 1983 to 2014. Morphodynamic modeling is a promising approach for identifying the effect of sea level rise on estuarine environments.

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USGS2023

Successful hindcast of 7 years of mud morphodynamics influenced by salt pond restoration in south San Francisco Bay

Alviso Slough in South San Francisco Bay has been experiencing restoration of adjacent former salt-production ponds into muted tidal ponds, tidal ponds, and salt marsh. As a result, tidal prism through Alviso Slough has increased and mercury-contaminated sediment has been remobilized. We developed a 2D, high-resolution, process-based model (Delft3D FM-wave) to hindcast observed morpho-dynamic developments and to investigate associated sediment flux in the slough and pond system. Our results contrastingly demonstrate that a successful hindcast of the observed morphodynamic trend is made while reproducing observed intratidal suspended sediment concentrations in Alviso Slough remains a challenge. Our explanation is that the model is able to capture spatial gradients in the tide-residual sediment transports as the result of the large-scale management actions in the system, i.e., the opening of the salt ponds. These tide-residual processes are generally difficult to measure over an entire domain, but are very relevant to model the morphodynamic development. Our model provides a promising tool to trace eroding contaminated sediments to the benefit of restoration project managers and to support planning and design phases of adaptive management measures.

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USGS2021

Drivers of extreme water levels in a large, urban, high-energy coastal estuary – A case study of the San Francisco Bay

Reliable and long-term hindcast data of water levels are essential in quantifying return period and values of extreme water levels. In order to inform design decisions on a local flood control district level, process-based numerical modeling has proven an essential tool to provide the needed temporal and spatial coverage for different extreme value analysis methods. To determine the importance of different physical processes to the extreme water levels we developed a process-based numerical model (Delft3D Flexible Mesh) and applied it to simulate a large, urban, high-energy coastal estuary (the San Francisco Bay). The unstructured grid with 1D/2DH model elements, allows for efficient model simulations and therefore it was possible to simulate over 70 years between 1950 and 2019. Results show significant skill in reproducing observations for the entire modeled time period with an average root-mean-square error of 8.0 cm. A process-based modeling approach allows for the explicit in- and exclusion of different physical processes to quantify their importance to the extremes. For the 100-year still water level (SWL), tide (70%) and non-tidal residual (NTR) (25%) explain the majority of the simulated high water levels in the Bay relative to Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). However, closer to the Delta, local fluvial inflow increases in importance. For longer return periods, the importance of tide decreases and the importance of remote NTRs and fluvial inflow increases.

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USGS2019

Morphodynamic resilience of intertidal mudflats on a seasonal time scale

Intertidal mudflats are morphodynamic features present in many estuaries worldwide. Often located between vegetated shores and deep channels they comprise valuable ecosystems and serve to protect the hinterland by attenuating waves. Although mudflats are persistently present on yearly to decadal time scales, little is known on their morphodynamic adaptation to short‐term variations in forcing such as storms, spring‐neap tidal cycles, and sediment supply. This study aims to explore the morphodynamic resilience of mudflats to seasonal variations in forcing. First, we compare transects observed in South Bay, California, at 3‐ to 6‐monthly intervals. Second, we present the results of a process‐based, morphodynamic profile model (Mflat). Mflat is an open source, Matlab code that describes both cross‐shore and alongshore tidal hydrodynamics as well as a stationary wave model. An advection‐diffusion equation solves sediment transport while bed level changes occur by the divergence of the sediment transport field. Mflat reproduces the observed South San Francisco Bay profile in equilibrium with significant skill. Short‐term variations in hydrodynamic forcing and sediment characteristics disturb the profile mainly at the channel‐shoal edge. The modeled profile disturbance is consistent with observations. The modeled profile is remarkably resilient since it recovers to the equilibrium profile within weeks to months. The model results suggest that 3‐monthly observation intervals are probably too long to discriminate processes responsible for the profile disturbance. These processes may include variations in sediment supply, mudflat erodibility, and wave action as well as the spring‐neap tidal cycle.

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USGS2018

Modeling morphodynamic development in the Alviso Slough system, South San Francisco Bay, California

Alviso Slough area, South San Francisco Bay, California, is the site of an ongoing effort to restore former salt production ponds to intertidal habitat. As restoration proceeds and the levees surrounding the former salt production ponds are breached, the increase in tidal prism and associated sediment scour in the sloughs will remobilize legacy mercury deposits. A numerical model that is able to assess patterns of sediment transport, erosion, and the fate of remobilized sediments can improve mercury remobilization estimates and inform management actions. The goals of the current research are to (1) validate a 2D geomorphic model for Alviso Slough using bathymetric surveys and to (2) apply the validated model for Alviso Slough to investigate scenarios of sea level rise and levee breaching on the long-term scour in Alviso Slough. The 2D geomorphic numerical model applies the Delft3D Flexible Mesh (software by Deltares) that describes detailed interaction between hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and geomorphic change on a high resolution mesh. The morphodynamic modeling exercise shows that observed erosion and sedimentation patterns can be reproduced with skill. The associated suspended sediment concentrations are more difficult to reproduce. The model reveals tide residual flow patterns that are difficult to measure. These residual flow and transport patterns are the result of subtle, tide residual transport trends so that their effect becomes visible in multi-year simulations. Scenario model simulations show possible, illustrative impacts of sea level rise and potential management interventions (additional levee breaches).

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USGS2017

What determines water temperature dynamics in the San Francisco Bay-Delta system?

Water temperature is an important factor determining estuarine species habitat conditions. Water temperature is mainly governed by advection (e.g., from rivers) and atmospheric exchange processes varying strongly over time (day-night, seasonally) and the spatial domain. On a long time scale, climate change will impact water temperature in estuarine systems due to changes in river flow regimes, air temperature, and sea level rise. To determine which factors govern estuarine water temperature and its sensitivity to changes in its forcing, we developed a process-based numerical model (Delft3D Flexible Mesh) and applied it to a well-monitored estuarine system (the San Francisco Estuary) for validation. The process-based approach allows for detailed process description and a physics-based analysis of governing processes. The model was calibrated for water year 2011 and incorporated 3-D hydrodynamics, salinity intrusion, water temperature dynamics, and atmospheric coupling. Results show significant skill in reproducing temperature observations on daily, seasonal, and yearly time scales. In North San Francisco Bay, thermal stratification is present, enhanced by salinity stratification. The temperature of the upstream, fresh water Delta area is captured well in 2-D mode, although locally—on a small scale—vertical processes (e.g., stratification) may be important. The impact of upstream river temperature and discharge and atmospheric forcing on water temperatures differs throughout the Delta, possibly depending on dispersion and residence times. Our modeling effort provides a sound basis for future modeling studies including climate change impact on water temperature and associated ecological modeling, e.g., clam and fish habitat and phytoplankton dynamics.

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USGS2017

How can climate change and engineered water conveyance affect sediment dynamics in the San Francisco Bay-Delta system?

Suspended sediment concentration is an important estuarine health indicator. Estuarine ecosystems rely on the maintenance of habitat conditions, which are changing due to direct human impact and climate change. This study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change relative to engineering measures on estuarine fine sediment dynamics and sediment budgets. We use the highly engineered San Francisco Bay-Delta system as a case study. We apply a process-based modeling approach (Delft3D-FM) to assess the changes in hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics resulting from climate change and engineering scenarios. The scenarios consider a direct human impact (shift in water pumping location), climate change (sea level rise and suspended sediment concentration decrease), and abrupt disasters (island flooding, possibly as the results of an earthquake). Levee failure has the largest impact on the hydrodynamics of the system. Reduction in sediment input from the watershed has the greatest impact on turbidity levels, which are key to primary production and define habitat conditions for endemic species. Sea level rise leads to more sediment suspension and a net sediment export if little room for accommodation is left in the system due to continuous engineering works. Mitigation measures like levee reinforcement are effective for addressing direct human impacts, but less effective for a persistent, widespread, and increasing threat like sea level rise. Progressive adaptive mitigation measures to the changes in sediment and flow dynamics resulting from sea level rise may be a more effective strategy. Our approach shows that a validated process-based model is a useful tool to address long-term (decades to centuries) changes in sediment dynamics in highly engineered estuarine systems. In addition, our modeling approach provides a useful basis for long-term, process-based studies addressing ecosystem dynamics and health.

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USGS2016

Mudflat morphodynamics and the impact of sea level rise in South San Francisco Bay

Estuarine tidal mudflats form unique habitats and maintain valuable ecosystems. Historic measurements of a mudflat in San Fancsico Bay over the past 150 years suggest the development of a rather stable mudflat profile. This raises questions on its origin and governing processes as well as on the mudflats’ fate under scenarios of sea level rise and decreasing sediment supply. We developed a 1D morphodynamic profile model (Delft3D) that is able to reproduce the 2011 measured mudflat profile. The main, schematised, forcings of the model are a constant tidal cycle and constant wave action. The model shows that wave action suspends sediment that is transported landward during flood. A depositional front moves landward until landward bed levels are high enough to carry an equal amount of sediment back during ebb. This implies that, similar to observations, the critical shear stress for erosion is regularly exceeded during the tidal cycle and that modelled equilibrium conditions include high suspended sediment concentrations at the mudflat. Shear stresses are highest during low water, while shear stresses are lower than critical (and highest at the landward end) along the mudflat during high water. Scenarios of sea level rise and decreasing sediment supply drown the mudflat. In addition, the mudflat becomes more prone to channel incision because landward accumulation is hampered. This research suggests that sea level rise is a serious threat to the presence of many estuarine intertidal mudflats, adjacent salt marshes and their associated ecological values.

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USGS2011

Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a century of continuing climate change

Background Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. Methodology/Principal Findings We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010–2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. Conclusions/Significance Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21 st century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts.

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