Geology topics

Michelle L. Brown

Publications and source records attributed to Michelle L. Brown.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Net carbon sequestration implications of intensified timber harvest in Northeastern U.S. forests

U.S. forests, particularly in the eastern states, provide an important offset to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Some have proposed that forest-based natural climate solutions can be strengthened via a number of strategies, including increases in the production of forest biomass energy. We used output from a forest dynamics model (SORTIE-ND) in combination with a GHG accounting tool (ForGATE) to estimate the carbon consequences of current and intensified timber harvest regimes in the Northeastern United States. We considered a range of carbon pools including forest ecosystem pools, forest product pools, and waste pools, along with different scenarios of feedstock production for biomass energy. The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which represents current harvest practices derived from the analysis of U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data, sequestered more net CO 2 equivalents than any of the intensified harvest and feedstock utilization scenarios over the next decade, the most important time period for combatting climate change. Increasing the intensity of timber harvest increased total emissions and reduced landscape average forest carbon stocks, resulting in reduced net carbon sequestration relative to current harvest regimes. Net carbon sequestration “parity points,” where the regional cumulative net carbon sequestration from alternate intensified harvest scenarios converge with and then exceed the BAU baseline, ranged from 12 to 40 years. A “no harvest” scenario provides an estimate of an upper bound on forest carbon sequestration in the region given the expected successional dynamics of the region's forests but ignores leakage. Regional net carbon sequestration is primarily influenced by (1) the harvest regime and amount of forest biomass removal, (2) the degree to which bioenergy displaces fossil fuel use, and (3) the proportion of biomass diverted to energy feedstocks versus wood products.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗

USGS2018

Timber harvest as the predominant disturbance regime in northeastern U.S. forests: Effects of harvest intensification

Harvesting is the leading cause of adult tree mortality in forests of the northeastern United States. While current rates of timber harvest are generally sustainable, there is considerable pressure to increase the contribution of forest biomass to meet renewable energy goals. We estimated current harvest regimes for different forest types and regions across the U.S. states of New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine using data from the U.S. Forest Inventory and Analysis Program. We implemented the harvest regimes in SORTIE‐ND, an individual‐based model of forest dynamics, and simulated the effects of current harvest regimes and five additional harvest scenarios that varied by harvest frequency and intensity over 150 yr. The best statistical model for the harvest regime described the annual probability of harvest as a function of forest type/region, total plot basal area, and distance to the nearest improved road. Forests were predicted to increase in adult aboveground biomass in all harvest scenarios in all forest type and region combinations. The magnitude of the increase, however, varied dramatically—increasing from 3% to 120% above current landscape averages as harvest frequency and intensity decreased. The variation can be largely explained by the disproportionately high harvest rates estimated for Maine as compared with the rest of the region. Despite steady biomass accumulation across the landscape, stands that exhibited old‐growth characteristics (defined as ≥300 metric tons of biomass/hectare) were rare (8% or less of stands). Intensified harvest regimes had little effect on species composition due to widespread partial harvesting in all scenarios, resulting in dominance by late‐successional species over time. Our analyses indicate that forest biomass can represent a sustainable, if small, component of renewable energy portfolios in the region, although there are tradeoffs between carbon sequestration in forest biomass and sustainable feedstock supply. Integrating harvest regimes into a disturbance theory framework is critical to understanding the dynamics of forested landscapes, especially given the predominance of logging as a disturbance agent and the increasing pressure to meet renewable energy needs.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2014

Predicting impacts of future human population growth and development on occupancy rates of forest-dependent birds

Forest loss and fragmentation are among the largest threats to forest-dwelling wildlife species today, and projected increases in human population growth are expected to increase these threats in the next century. We combined spatially-explicit growth models with wildlife distribution models to predict the effects of human development on 5 forest-dependent bird species in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts, USA. We used single-species occupancy models to derive the probability of occupancy for each species across the study area in the years 2000 and 2050. Over half a million new housing units were predicted to be added to the landscape. The maximum change in housing density was nearly 30 houses per hectare; however, 30% of the towns in the study area were projected to add less than 1 housing unit per hectare. In the face of predicted human growth, the overall occupancy of each species decreased by as much as 38% (ranging from 19% to 38% declines in the worst-case scenario) in the year 2050. These declines were greater outside of protected areas than within protected lands. Ninety-seven percent of towns experienced some decline in species occupancy within their borders, highlighting the value of spatially-explicit models. The mean decrease in occupancy probability within towns ranged from 3% for hairy woodpecker to 8% for ovenbird and hermit thrush. Reductions in occupancy probability occurred on the perimeters of cities and towns where exurban development is predicted to increase in the study area. This spatial approach to wildlife planning provides data to evaluate trade-offs between development scenarios and forest-dependent wildlife species.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2012

The effects of drought and disturbance on the growth and developmental instability of loblolly pine ( Pinus taeda L.)

Ecological indicators provide early warning of adverse environmental change, helping land managers adaptively manage their resources while minimizing costly remediation. In 1999 and 2000, we studied two such indicators, growth and developmental instability, of loblolly pine ( Pinus taeda L.) influenced by mechanized infantry training at Fort Benning, Georgia. Disturbed areas were used for military training; tracked and wheeled vehicles damaged vegetation and soils. Highly disturbed sites had fewer trees, diminished ground cover, warmer soils in the summer, and more compacted soils with a shallower A-horizon. We hypothesized that disturbance would decrease the growth of needles, branches, and tree rings, increase the complexity of tree rings, and increase the developmental instability of needles. Contrary to our expectations, however, disturbance enhanced growth in the first year of the study, possibly by reducing competition. In the second year, a drought reduced growth of branches and needles, eliminating the stimulatory effect of disturbance. Growth-ring widths increased with growing-season precipitation, and decreased with growing-season temperature over the last 40 years. Disturbance had no effect on tree-ring complexity, as measured by the Hurst exponent. Within-fascicle variation of current-year needle length, a measure of developmental instability, differed among the study populations, but appeared unrelated to mechanical disturbance or drought.

Ecological Indicators↗

USGS2004

Developmental instability in Rhus copallinum L.: multiple stressors, years, and responses

Developmental instability, as assessed by leaf fluctuating asymmetry and stem internode allometry, was examined at nine sites, representing three levels of disturbance, over multiple years. Site selection was based on land‐use disturbance classes related to training of mechanized infantry and other land management activities at Fort Benning, Georgia. Developmental instability varied among sites and years, and there was a strong site‐by‐year interaction for many traits. Indeed, depending on the year, the same site could be ranked as having the greatest and least amount of leaf fluctuating asymmetry. Burning a site the year prior to collecting the leaves profoundly influenced measures of leaf fluctuating asymmetry. In the absence of recent burning, leaf fluctuating asymmetry declined with increasing disturbance, but burning the year prior to collecting the leaves reversed this trend. Total plant cover, proportion of bare ground, and amount of plant litter influenced the amount of leaf asymmetry in a site‐dependent manner. Overall, burning influenced the levels of developmental instability more than either disturbance or microhabitat variables such as total plant cover, which should reflect competition in a plant’s immediate neighborhood.

International Journal of Plant Sciences↗

USGS2004

Photosynthesis and fluctuating asymmetry as indicators of plant response to soil disturbance in the Fall-Line Sandhills of Georgia: a case study using Rhus copallinum and Ipomoea pandurata

We examined net photosynthesis, transpiration, stomatal conductance, and leaf fluctuating asymmetry on two species ( Rhus copallinum and Ipomoea pandurata ) as indicators of stress at nine sites across a gradient of soil disturbance at Fort Benning, Georgia. There were three sites for each of three disturbance levels. Physical habitat disturbance was caused by activities associated with infantry training, including mechanized elements (tanks and personnel carriers) and foot soldiers. In addition, we examined the influence of prescribed burns and microhabitat effects (within meter‐square quadrats centered about the plant) on these measures of plant stress. Net photosynthesis declined with increasing disturbance in the absence of burning for both species. However, when sites were burned the previous year, net photosynthesis increased with increasing disturbance. Developmental instability in Rhus , as measured by fluctuating asymmetry, also declined with increasing disturbance in the absence of burning but increased with disturbance if sites were burned the previous year. Developmental instability was much less sensitive to burning in Ipomoea and in general was lowest at intermediate disturbance sites. Microenvironmental and microhabitat effects were weakly correlated with measures of plant stress when all sites were combined. However, higher correlations were obtained within site categories, especially when the recent history of prescribed burning was used as a category. Finally, using all of the combined data in a discriminant function analysis allowed us to correctly predict the disturbance level of more than 80% of the plants. Plant stress is responsive to both large‐scale perturbations, such as burning, and microhabitat parameters. Because of this, it is important to include macro‐ and microhabitat parameters when assessing stress. Similarly, we found a combination of developmental and physiological indicators of stress was superior to using them separately.

International Journal of Plant Sciences↗