Geology topics

Michael Lisowski

Publications and source records attributed to Michael Lisowski.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2021

Geodetic constraints on a 25-year magmatic inflation episode near Three Sisters, central Oregon

Crustal inflation near the Three Sisters volcanic center documented since the mid-1990s has persisted for more than two decades. We update past analyses of the event through 2020 by simultaneously inverting InSAR interferograms, GPS time series, and leveling data for time-dependent volcanic deformation source parameters. We explore several source models to estimate how the deformation rate varied through time and to identify parameters that can reproduce measured deformation. Our preferred model is a Mogi source 4.1 km below sea level (5.9 km below the surface) about 5 km west of the summit of South Sister. Inflation started in late 1995 or 1996; the rate increased rapidly during 1998–1999, and peaked in late 1999, resulting in maximum surface uplift of about 30 cm by mid-2020. Since 2000, the inflation rate generally declined exponentially with a time constant of about 6 years. Two source inflation scenarios fit the data equally well. In the first, the crust surrounding the source is elastic and the net source-volume increase, which we attribute to persistent magma input, has been about 49 × 10 6 m 3 . The second scenario adds a viscoelastic shell surrounding the Mogi source. In that case, an injection of about 21 × 10 6 m 3 of magma prior to 2000, followed by continuing relaxation of the viscoelastic shell, can account for most of the observed surface deformation. In both scenarios, modeling reveals quasiperiodic increases in the inflation rate (pulses) with a recurrence interval of 3–4 years, both before and after 2000.

Oregon↗

USGS2019

The 2017-19 activity at Mount Agung in Bali (Indonesia): Intense unrest, monitoring, crisis response, evacuation, and eruption

After 53 years of quiescence, Mount Agung awoke in August 2017, with intense seismicity, measurable ground deformation, and thermal anomalies in the summit crater. Although the seismic unrest peaked in late September and early October, the volcano did not start erupting until 21 November. The most intense explosive eruptions with accompanying rapid lava effusion occurred between 25 and 29 November. Smaller infrequent explosions and extrusions continue through the present (June 2019). The delay between intense unrest and eruption caused considerable challenges to emergency responders, local and national governmental agencies, and the population of Bali near the volcano, including over 140,000 evacuees. This paper provides an overview of the volcanic activity at Mount Agung from the viewpoint of the volcano observatory and other scientists responding to the volcanic crisis. We discuss the volcanic activity as well as key data streams used to track it. We provide evidence that magma intruded into the mid-crust in early 2017, and again in August of that year, prior to intrusion of an inferred dike between Mount Agung and Batur Caldera that initiated an earthquake swarm in late September. We summarize efforts to forecast the behavior of the volcano, to quantify exclusion zones for evacuations, and to work with emergency responders and other government agencies to make decisions during a complex and tense volcanic crisis.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2018

Mass addition at Mount St. Helens, Washington, inferred from repeated gravity surveys

Measurements of subtle changes in the Earth’s gravityfield can provideinformation on the addition/loss of mass (e.g., magma or aqueousfluids) beneath a volcano. In this study, wemeasured gravity at Mount St. Helens from 2010 to 2016 to investigate possible mass changes followingthe 2004–2008 dome-forming eruption. The raw gravity measurements were corrected for changes in themass and shape of Crater Glacier and for deformation of the volcanic edifice to obtain residual gravity values.We found positive residual gravity changes that we interpret as evidence for partial recharge of the magmareservoir that fed the 2004–2008 eruption and/or for accumulation of groundwater in one or more shallowaquifers. Most of the gravity signal can be explained by groundwater accumulation; magma recharge is notrequired. However, there is additional evidence for at least partial recharge from seismic, deformation, andgeochemical observations

Washington↗

USGS2017

Volcano geodesy in the Cascade arc, USA

Experience during historical time throughout the Cascade arc and the lack of deep-seated deformation prior to the two most recent eruptions of Mount St. Helens might lead one to infer that Cascade volcanoes are generally quiescent and, specifically, show no signs of geodetic change until they are about to erupt. Several decades of geodetic data, however, tell a different story. Ground- and space-based deformation studies have identified surface displacements at five of the 13 major Cascade arc volcanoes that lie in the USA (Mount Baker, Mount St. Helens, South Sister, Medicine Lake, and Lassen volcanic center). No deformation has been detected at five volcanoes (Mount Rainier, Mount Hood, Newberry Volcano, Crater Lake, and Mount Shasta), and there are not sufficient data at the remaining three (Glacier Peak, Mount Adams, and Mount Jefferson) for a rigorous assessment. In addition, gravity change has been measured at two of the three locations where surveys have been repeated (Mount St. Helens and Mount Baker show changes, while South Sister does not). Broad deformation patterns associated with heavily forested and ice-clad Cascade volcanoes are generally characterized by low displacement rates, in the range of millimeters to a few centimeters per year, and are overprinted by larger tectonic motions of several centimeters per year. Continuous GPS is therefore the best means of tracking temporal changes in deformation of Cascade volcanoes and also for characterizing tectonic signals so that they may be distinguished from volcanic sources. Better spatial resolution of volcano deformation can be obtained through the use of campaign GPS, semipermanent GPS, and interferometric synthetic aperture radar observations, which leverage the accumulation of displacements over time to improve signal to noise. Deformation source mechanisms in the Cascades are diverse and include magma accumulation and withdrawal, post-emplacement cooling of recent volcanic deposits, magmatic-tectonic interactions, and loss of volatiles plus densification of magma. The Cascade Range thus offers an outstanding opportunity for investigating a wide range of volcanic processes. Indeed, there may be areas of geodetic change that have yet to be discovered, and there is good potential for addressing a number of important questions about how arc volcanoes work before, during, and after eruptions by continuing geodetic research in the Cascade Range.

Cascade Arc↗

USGS2017

Semipermanent GPS (SPGPS) as a volcano monitoring tool: Rationale, method, and applications

Semipermanent GPS (SPGPS) is an alternative to conventional campaign or survey-mode GPS (SGPS) and to continuous GPS (CGPS) that offers several advantages for monitoring ground deformation. Unlike CGPS installations, SPGPS stations can be deployed quickly in response to changing volcanic conditions or earthquake activity such as a swarm or aftershock sequence. SPGPS networks can be more focused or more extensive than CGPS installations, because SPGPS equipment can be moved from station to station quickly to increase the total number of stations observed in a given time period. SPGPS networks are less intrusive on the landscape than CGPS installations, which makes it easier to satisfy land-use restrictions in ecologically sensitive areas. SPGPS observations are preferred over SGPS measurements because they provide better precision with only a modest increase in the amount of time, equipment, and personnel required in the field. We describe three applications of the SPGPS method that demonstrate its utility and flexibility. At the Yellowstone caldera, Wyoming, a 9-station SPGPS network serves to densify larger preexisting networks of CGPS and SGPS stations. At the Three Sisters volcanic center, Oregon, a 14-station SPGPS network complements an SGPS network and extends the geographic coverage provided by 3 CGPS stations permitted under wilderness land-use restrictions. In the Basin and Range province in northwest Nevada, a 6-station SPGPS network has been established in response to a prolonged earthquake swarm in an area with only sparse preexisting geodetic coverage. At Three Sisters, the estimated precision of station velocities based on annual ~ 3 month summertime SPGPS occupations from 2009 to 2015 is approximately half that for nearby CGPS stations. Conversely, SPGPS-derived station velocities are about twice as precise as those based on annual ~ 1 week SGPS measurements. After 5 years of SPGPS observations at Three Sisters, the precision of velocity determinations is estimated to be 0.5 mm/yr in longitude, 0.6 mm/yr in latitude, and 0.8 mm/yr in height. We conclude that an optimal approach to monitoring volcano deformation includes complementary CGPS and SPGPS networks, periodic InSAR observations, and measurements from in situ borehole sensors such as tiltmeters or strainmeters. This comprehensive approach provides the spatial and temporal detail necessary to adequately characterize a complex and evolving deformation pattern. Such information is essential to multi-parameter models of magmatic or tectonic processes that can help to guide research efforts, and also to inform hazards assessments and land-use planning decisions.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2015

The 2004–2008 dome-building eruption at Mount St. Helens, Washington: Epilogue

The 2004–2008 dome-building eruption at Mount St. Helens ended during winter 2007–2008 at a time when field observations were hampered by persistent bad weather. As a result, recognizing the end of the eruption was challenging—but important for scientists trying to understand how and why long-lived eruptions end and for public officials and land managers responsible for hazards mitigation and access restrictions. In hindsight, the end of the eruption was presaged by a slight increase in seismicity in December 2007 that culminated on January 12–13, 2008, with a burst of more than 500 events, most of which occurred in association with several tremor-like signals and a spasmodic burst of long-period earthquakes. At about the same time, a series of regular, localized, small-amplitude tilt events—thousands of which had been recorded during earlier phases of the eruption—came to an end. Thereafter, seismicity declined to 10–20 events per day until January 27–28, when a spasmodic burst of about 50 volcano-tectonic earthquakes occurred over a span of 3 h. This was followed by a brief return of repetitive “drumbeat” earthquakes that characterized much of the eruption. By January 31, however, seismicity had declined to 1–2 earthquakes per day, a rate similar to pre-eruption levels. We attribute the tilt and seismic observations to convulsive stagnation of a semisolid magma plug in the upper part of the conduit. The upward movement of the plug ceased when the excess driving pressure, which had gradually decreased throughout the eruption as a result of reservoir deflation and increasing overburden from the growing dome, was overcome by increasing friction as a result of cooling and crystallization of the plug.

Washington↗

USGS2015

Renewed inflation of Long Valley Caldera, California (2011 to 2014)

Slow inflation began at Long Valley Caldera in late 2011, coinciding with renewed swarm seismicity. Ongoing deformation is concentrated within the caldera. We analyze this deformation using a combination of GPS and InSAR (TerraSAR-X) data processed with a persistent scatterer technique. The extension rate of the dome-crossing baseline during this episode (CA99 to KRAC) is 1 cm/yr, similar to past inflation episodes (1990–1995 and 2002–2003), and about a tenth of the peak rate observed during the 1997 unrest. The current deformation is well modeled by the inflation of a prolate spheroidal magma reservoir &sim;7 km beneath the resurgent dome, with a volume change of &sim;6 × 10 6  m 3 /yr from 2011.7 through the end of 2014. The current data cannot resolve a second source, which was required to model the 1997 episode. This source appears to be in the same region as previous inflation episodes, suggesting a persistent reservoir.

California↗

USGS2015

Strain accumulation across the Prince William Sound asperity, Southcentral Alaska

The surface velocities predicted by the conventional subduction model are compared to velocities measured in a GPS array (surveyed in 1993, 1995, 1997, 2000, and 2004) spanning the Prince William Sound asperity. The observed velocities in the comparison have been corrected to remove the contributions from postseismic (1964 Alaska earthquake) mantle relaxation. Except at the most seaward monument (located on Middleton Island at the seaward edge of the continental shelf, just 50 km landward of the deformation front in the Aleutian Trench), the corrected velocities qualitatively agree with those predicted by an improved, two-dimensional, back slip, subduction model in which the locked megathrust coincides with the plate interface identified by seismic refraction surveys, and the back slip rate is equal to the plate convergence rate. A better fit to the corrected velocities is furnished by either a back slip rate 20% greater than the plate convergence rate or a 30% shallower megathrust. The shallow megathrust in the latter fit may be an artifact of the uniform half-space Earth model used in the inversion. Backslip at the plate convergence rate on the megathrust mapped by refraction surveys would fit the data as well if the rigidity of the underthrust plate was twice that of the overlying plate, a rigidity contrast higher than expected. The anomalous motion at Middleton Island is attributed to continuous slip at near the plate convergence rate on a postulated, listric fault that splays off the megathrust at depth of about 12 km and outcrops on the continental slope south-southeast of Middleton Island.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2014

Continuous uplift near the seaward edge of the Prince William Sound megathrust: Middleton Island, Alaska

Middleton Island, located at the seaward edge of the continental shelf 50 km from the base of the inner wall of the Aleutian Trench, affords an opportunity to make land-based measurements of uplift near the toe of the Prince William Sound megathrust, site of the 1964, M  = 9.2, Alaska earthquake. Leveling surveys (1973–1993) on Middleton Island indicate roughly uniform tilting (~1 µrad/a down to the northwest) of the island, and GPS surveys (1993–2012) show an uplift rate of 14 mm/a of the island relative to fixed North America. The data are consistent with a combined (coseismic and postseismic) uplift (in meters) due to the 1964 earthquake as a function of time τ (years after the earthquake) u ( τ ) = (3.5 + 1.21 log 10  [1 + 1.67  τ ]) H ( τ ) where 3.5 is the coseismic uplift and H ( τ ) is 0 for τ  < 0 and 1 otherwise. The current uplift on Middleton Island is attributed to continuous slip on a fault splaying off from the megathrust, and the long-term uplift is the superposition of the effects of past earthquakes, each earthquake being similar to the 1964 event. Then, the predicted uplift at time t due to a sequence of earthquakes at times t i would be . From studies of strandlines associated with the uplifted terraces on Middleton Island, Plafker et al. (1992) estimated the occurrence times of the last six earthquakes and measured the present-day elevations of those strandlines. The predicted uplift is in rough agreement with those measurements. About half of the predicted uplift is due to postseismic relaxation from previous earthquakes.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Long Valley Caldera 2003 through 2014: Overview of low level unrest in the past decade

Long Valley Caldera is located in California along the eastern escarpment of the Sierra Nevada Range. The caldera formed about 760,000 years ago as the eruption of 600 km 3 of rhyolite magma (Bishop Tuff) resulted in collapse of the partially evacuated magma chamber. Resurgent doming in the central part of the caldera occurred shortly afterwards, and the most recent eruptions inside the caldera occurred about 50,000 years ago. The caldera remains thermally active, with many hot springs and fumaroles, and has had significant deformation and seismicity since at least 1978. Periods of intense unrest in the 1980s to early 2000s are well documented in the literature (Hill and others, 2002; Ewert and others, 2010). In this poster, we extend the timeline forward, documenting seismicity and deformation over the past decade.

California↗

USGS2012

Strain accumulation in the Shumagin Islands: Results of initial GPS measurements

Deformation in the Shumagin seismic gap has been monitored with repeated trilateration (EDM) in the 1980–1987 interval and with the Global Positioning System (GPS) in the 1987–1991 interval. The geodetic network extends for 100-km across the Shumagin Islands to the Alaska Peninsula. Results from the GPS surveys are consistent with those previously reported for the EDM surveys: we failed to detect significant strain accumulation in the N30°W direction of plate convergence. Using the method of simultaneous reduction for position and strain rates, we found the average rate of extension in the direction of plate convergence to be −25±25 nanostrain/yr (nstrain/yr) during the 1987–1991 interval of GPS surveys compared with −20±15 nstrain/yr during the 1981–1987 interval of complete EDM surveys. We found a marginally significant −26±12 nstrain/yr extension rate in the 1981–1991 interval covered by the combined EDM and GPS surveys. Strain rates are higher, but not significantly so, in the part of the network closest to the trench. Spatial variation in the deformation is observed in the 1980–1991 average station velocities, where three of the four stations closest to the trench have an arcward velocity of a few mm/yr. The observed strain rates are an order of magnitude lower than the −200 nstrain/yr rate predicted by dislocation models.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2012

Strain accumulation north of Los Angeles, California, as a function of time, 1977–1992

No significant change in the rate of strain accumulation in a 40×120 km trilateration network spanning the San Gabriel mountains was observed from 1977.5 to 1991.8 despite an apparent increase in seismicity ( M L > 4.5) beginning in late 1987 in the northern Los Angeles basin immediately to the south. The observed deformation (0.13±0.01 µstrain/yr right‐lateral shear across a vertical plane striking N63°W±1°) can be attributed to strain accumulation on the San Andreas fault (local strike N65°W). No significant accumulation of compression normal to the strike of the San Andreas fault was observed in the network as a whole.

California↗

USGS2012

GPS measured rates of deformation in the northern San Francisco Bay Region, California, 1990–1993

A 100-km-long, 13-station profile extending across the San Andreas fault system north of San Francisco Bay was measured 7 times between March 1990 and January 1993 with the Global Positioning System (GPS). The data have been processed using the Bernese Version 3.2 software. Data from a continental-scale fiducial network were included in the solutions to aid orbit improvement and provide a consistent reference frame. We find 33 ± 2 mm/yr of fault-parallel (N33°W) shear evenly distributed southwest and northeast of the Rodgers Creek fault and a near linear velocity gradient across the profile. The profile spans most of the zone of active deformation associated with the San Andreas fault system. Shear is negligible at the east end of the profile near the Great Valley. Additional shear of a few millimeters per year is likely beyond Point Reyes Head, the west end of the profile. We observe no systematic convergence upon the fault. The GPS measured velocities are similar to those derived previously from trilateration. The velocity change across the GPS profile (31–35 mm/yr) plus that west of the profile (0–3 mm/yr) and that observed with VLBI east of the Sierra Nevada Mountains (∼10–12 mm/yr) accounts for the North American-Pacific plate rate (46–47 mm/yr).

California↗

USGS2012

Changes in long‐term extension rates associated with the Morgan Hill and Loma Prieta earthquakes in California

Frequent measurements since mid‐1981 of the distances from a geodetic monument located about 100 km south‐southeast of San Francisco to three monuments 30 to 40 km distant provide an unusually complete record of the deformation before and after two nearby earthquakes, the 1984 Morgan Hill ( M L = 6.2) and 1989 Loma Prieta ( M s = 7.1) earthquakes. Except possibly for the first few months postseismic, the extension rates indicated by these measurements appear to be steady over the four or five years both preceding and following those earthquakes. However, the preseismic and postseismic rates differ significantly for at least one of the baselines measured for each earthquake. The data over the four to five year postseismic records available are not adequate to demonstrate whether the postseismic rates are relaxing back to the preseismic rates.

California↗

USGS2012

A possible geodetic anomaly observed prior to the Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake

Monthly measurements since mid‐1981 of distance from a geodetic station located 11 km from the epicenter of the Loma Prieta earthquake ( M s = 7.1; October 17, 1989) to three stations 30 to 40 km distant provides an unusually complete record of deformation in the epicentral region in the years prior to an earthquake. Roughly 1.3 years before the earthquake, at about the time of the first magnitude‐5 foreshock, the rate of change in line length for two of the lines appears to change; the rate for the third line does not change. Other similar, though smaller, changes in rate are apparent in the eight‐year record. Thus, there is marginal evidence for a change in deformation rate about one year before the Loma Prieta earthquake, but that change need not be a precursor.

California↗

USGS2012

Geodetic estimate of coseismic slip during the 1989 Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake

Offsets in the relative positions of geodetic stations resulting from the Loma Prieta earthquake can be explained with a dislocation model that includes buried oblique slip on a rupture surface extending 37 km along the strike of the San Andreas fault, dipping 70° to the SW, and extending from a depth of about 5 to 17.5 km. Assuming uniform slip on a rectangular surface, the mean values for a range of reasonable fault geometries are 1.6 ± 0.3 m right‐lateral strike slip and 1.2 ±0.3 m reverse slip. Slip on an adjacent extension of the rupture to the southeast, recorded in the aftershock sequence, is not well constrained by the geodetic data. The geodetic data clearly preclude rupture extending near the surface.

California↗

USGS2012

An apparent shear zone trending north‐northwest across the Mojave Desert into Owens Valley, eastern California

Strain rates measured at four geodetic networks in eastern California situated between northern Owens Valley and the Transverse Ranges along a small circle drawn about the Pacific‐North America pole of rotation are remarkably consistent. Each exhibits 0.14 μrad/yr simple right‐lateral engineering‐shear‐strain accumulation across the local vertical plane tangent to the small circle. Local faults ( e.g. , Owens Valley, Garlock, Helendale) traversing these networks are not as closely aligned with the vertical planes of maximum shear‐strain accumulation as is the local tangent to the small circle. A fifth network slightly east of the small circle shows no significant strain accumulation. Thus, a shear zone trending N35° W from near the eastern end of the big bend of the San Andreas fault to northern Owens Valley is indicated by these data. This corresponds to the Eastern California shear zone proposed on geological evidence by Dokka and Travis. The shear zone carries ∼8 mm/yr of the Pacific‐North America relative plate motion from the San Andreas fault north‐northwest across the Mojave Desert into Owens Valley and the northern Basin and Range province. The shear zone observed at the surface may be a manifestation of a through‐going subcrustal fault.

California↗

USGS2012

Geodolite measurements of deformation near Hollister, California, 1971-1978

A 24‐station trilateration network spanning the San Andreas and Calaveras faults near Hollister, California, has been surveyed each year between 1971 and 1978, inclusive. Two moderate ( M L = 5) earthquakes have occurred within the network during the interval. No convincing preseismic or coseismic anomalies associated with those earthquakes have been identified. The deformation of the network can be described roughly by rigid body motion of the three blocks bounded by the two faults with accommodation occurring by right‐lateral strike slip on the San Andreas (13±2 mm/a) and Calaveras (17±2 mm/a) faults. The required slip rates are within the range of the observed fault creep on those faults. A more detailed analysis of the deformation indicates appreciable strain accumulation (0.4 μstrain/a tensor shear) within the block lying between the San Andreas and Calaveras faults. Many of the features of the observed deformation can be produced by an elementary dislocation model, indicating that most of the deformation is associated directly with slip on the major faults. The network is not extensive enough to define uniquely the relative motion across the San Andreas fault system, but the data are consistent with a value of about 38 mm/a. The rate of deformation in 1971–1978 was not uniform but rather appears to have been higher than normal in 1973–1974 and lower than normal in 1975–1976.

California↗