Geology topics

Michael L. Jones

Publications and source records attributed to Michael L. Jones.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Participatory modelling to support evaluation of management actions for recreational fisheries

Participatory modelling (PM) is a collaborative problem-solving approach that involves shared learning through the development of a model or multiple models with a group of participants and a modelling team. PM has the potential to be used more frequently to address recreational fisheries problems. We focus on our experience working with small groups (usually <40 people) to address natural resource issues. This chapter focuses on building a PM team and the communications that occur before, during, and after a PM process. The participants usually include people like recreational and commercial fishers, members of environmental non-governmental organizations, and fishery managers or other decision makers. Ground rules, expectations, and end goals should be established early in the PM process. We emphasize that benefits arise from including the participants in the development and validation of the models in a process that includes feedback between the modellers and participants. Although participants are ideally involved in all stages, their inclusion during model development and testing can be critical for buy-in within the group. When the modellers listen carefully to participant concerns and respond to those concerns during model development, we have experienced favourable process outcomes such as improved participant engagement and building of trust.

Book chapter↗

USGS2025

Ten lessons for controlling invasive species: Wisdom from the long-standing sea lamprey control program on the Laurentian Great Lakes

Sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) control in the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America is among the largest and most successful control programs of an invasive species anywhere on the planet. The effort began more than 75 years ago; it unites multiple nations, states, and provinces with the common goal of controlling this invasive species and protecting a valuable fishery. The science-based control program is administered by the Great Lakes Fishery Commission (GLFC), a body arising from a treaty signed by the United States and Canada. In the present article, we share 10 lessons learned from decades of successful sea lamprey control with the hopes of informing ongoing and future control programs targeting biological invasions. The 10 lessons we identified are to act boldly in times of crisis, to maintain the social license, to invest in capacity building, to break down the silos, to support fundamental science, to diversify your portfolio of control measures, to strive for continuous improvement, to confront the trade-off between information and action, to keep your foot on the gas, and to keep your eyes on the prize. The GLFC has long fostered a framework that uses some military strategy and verbiage that extends across the lessons (e.g., know your enemy). Other lessons are more nascent as the GLFC reenvisions its relationship with Indigenous peoples and governments in a path to reconciliation where two-eyed seeing is being embraced. Through adaptive management, horizon scanning methods, and embracing implementation science, the lessons learned about sea lamprey control will continue to evolve, which is itself a lesson. We submit that the lessons shared in the present article will help guide invasive species control programs spanning taxa, ecosystems, and regions.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗

USGS2023

Lessons learned in applying decision analysis to natural resource management for high stakes issues surrounded by uncertainty

Management agencies are tasked with difficult decisions for conservation and management of natural resources. These decisions are difficult because of ecological and social uncertainties, the potential for multiple decision makers from multiple jurisdictions, and the need to account for the diverse values of stakeholders. Decision analysis provides a framework for accounting for these difficulties when making conservation and management decisions. We discuss the benefits of the application of decision analysis for these types of issues and provide insights from three case studies from the Laurentian Great Lakes. These case studies describe applications of decision analysis for decisions within an agency (management of double-crested cormorant), among agencies (response to invasive grass carp), and among agencies and stakeholders (sustainable fisheries harvest management). These case studies provide insight into the ways that decision analysis can be useful for conservation and management of natural resources, but we also highlight future needs for decision making for these resources. In particular, applications of decision analysis for conservation and management would benefit from enhanced integration of both ecological and social science, inclusion of a broader base of stakeholders and rightsholders, and better educational opportunities surrounding decision analysis for undergraduates and graduate students of natural resources management programs. Specific lessons from our experiences include the importance of establishing trust and transparency early through the formation of a working group, collaboratively defining objectives and evaluating uncertainties, risks, and tradeoffs, and implementing participatory modeling processes with an independent facilitator with appropriate quantitative skills.

Decision Analysis↗

USGS2023

Updated decision analysis to inform multi-species salmonine management in Lake Michigan

The recreational fishery for salmonine species in Lake Michigan (lake trout, Chinook salmon, coho salmon, steelhead, and brown trout) is largely maintained through stocking. Decisions about how many of each species to stock require an understanding of how to maintain a sustainable balance of predators (salmonine species) to prey (alewife) in the lake. The current models used to make these decisions can estimate the ratio of Chinook salmon to alewife in the lake. However, the Lake Michigan Committee’s new stocking strategy aims to incorporate the other salmonine species into this predator-prey ratio. We used structured decision making to evaluate potential stocking strategies. We worked with fishery stakeholders and members of the Lake Michigan Committee, conducted participatory modeling to forecast outcomes of stocking scenarios using updated information on fish movement and feeding, and evaluated the risk of these stocking strategies. Most of the stocking practices we evaluated resulted in a high risk of large declines in alewife abundance, negatively affecting future salmon fisheries. The forecasts were substantially more pessimistic than those resulting from a similar analysis conducted a decade earlier, apparently due to more recent alewife assessments indicating lower alewife productivity (recruits per spawner). Alewife recruitment dynamics is an area of substantial uncertainty, with apparently large consequences for management; decision makers on Lake Michigan would benefit from greater understanding of alewife recruitment dynamics to reduce this uncertainty when accounting for risks.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2022

Estimation of lake-scale stock-recruitment models for Great Lakes sea lampreys

Understanding recruitment dynamics is an essential part of effective fisheries management, whether the focus is on conservation, harvest policy development, or invasive species control. We developed a model that estimates lake-wide Ricker stock-recruitment relations for invasive sea lampreys ( Petromyzon marinus ) in each of the five Laurentian Great Lakes to inform future control efforts. We fit adult-to-adult models, taking advantage of a long time series of lake-wide, adult, sea lamprey abundance estimates. We incorporated proportional contributions at age for the stock as well as additional explanatory variables sea lamprey weight, as a surrogate for fecundity, and lampricide quantity applied, as a surrogate for anthropogenic mortality, to explain residual recruitment variability. The best model incorporated equal cohort contributions from the adult stock (that matured 5, 6, and 7 years prior to recruitment), a single productivity parameter ( α "> α ) common to all five lakes, lake-specific carrying capacity parameters ( β j "> βj ), and coefficients for sea lamprey weight and lampricide quantity applied. The precision of the estimated Ricker parameters compared favorably to those estimated by adult-to-larva models, a promising development in the pursuit of sea lamprey recruitment prediction. The model should be useful to fisheries managers in the Great Lakes wishing to consider various recruitment overfishing strategies in the control of invasive sea lampreys, reaffirming that even models built on a single life stage can inform our understanding of ecological interactions and explorative management scenarios.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2021

Evidence of host switching: Sea lampreys disproportionately attack Chinook salmon when lake trout abundance is low in Lake Ontario

Lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) is the presumed preferred host of the invasive sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) in the Great Lakes, but little is understood about this preference outside of laboratory experiments. By preference we mean sea lamprey attacks on hosts are disproportionate to host relative abundance. The purpose of this study was to quantify host preference of sea lampreys in the field for the first time. We focused our analysis on Lake Ontario, where the two dominant host species for sea lampreys are lake trout and Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ). Sea lampreys exhibited a strong preference for lake trout when host abundance was ≥ "> ≥ 32% lake trout, but sea lamprey preference switched to Chinook salmon when host abundance was ≤ "> ≤ 13% lake trout. Model results were equivocal with respect to determining whether the primary predictor of sea lamprey preference was relative or absolute abundance of lake trout. Other evidence, particularly the different spatial distributions of the two hosts, suggests that sea lamprey preference for lake trout is based on a higher encounter probability, driven by absolute abundance of lake trout. This study confirms a widely held concern that observed sea lamprey-induced marking rates on lake trout, used to assess the status of sea lamprey control in the Great Lakes, can be influenced by the abundance of alternative hosts. As an alternative host for sea lamprey parasitism, Chinook salmon may contribute to the persistence of lake trout in Lake Ontario.

Lake Ontario↗

USGS2021

Eradication of sea lampreys from the Laurentian Great Lakes is possible

Eradication has been achieved for many vertebrate pest control programs, primarily on small, isolated islands, but has never been considered a practical goal for invasive sea lampreys in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Our objective was to examine evidence relevant to the feasibility of setting eradication as a management goal for Great Lakes sea lampreys. Bomford and O'Brien (1995) listed six conditions for successful eradication of a vertebrate pest; here we examine evidence that these conditions are likely to be met for Great Lakes sea lampreys, with a focus on the first condition: that removal of the pest through control can exceed their rate of replenishment . We analyzed two data sets – one empirical and one synthetic – to estimate stock-recruitment relationships and calculate the exploitation rate necessary for extinction. The empirical data set included the effect of existing lampricide control and suggested an exploitation rate of 59%, in addition to lampricide control, would be sufficient for eventual eradication. The synthetic data set, derived from a simulation of stream-level recruitment dynamics in the absence of lampricide control, suggested that an overall exploitation rate of 90% would be sufficient. We suggest that both of these targets could be achieved. Meeting the other conditions will depend on the scale of the eradication effort, and on development of an exploitation strategy, such as genetic biocontrol, that can target sea lampreys in presently invulnerable habitats. Overall, we concluded that eradication of sea lampreys from the Great Lakes should not be dismissed as a prospective goal.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗

USGS2021

Using simulation to understand annual sea lamprey marking rates on lake trout

Sea lampreys attack fish, killing some and leaving marks on others. Great Lakes fishery managers rely on observed marking rates to assess the success of the sea lamprey control program and estimate sea lamprey-induced mortality of lake trout. Because marking rates are only observed on survivors of sea lamprey attacks, they may not provide a reliable index of actual attack or mortality rates. To investigate the effect of survivor bias, we developed a simulation model representing a single season (June–December) of sea lamprey attacks. Simulated attack rates varied with month and lake trout size; simulated pierce and lethality rates varied with month alone. Surveyed marking rates were represented by simulated survivors in October; true rates were calculated from all simulated lake trout (dead and alive) in December. Simulation results were subsetted to include only those within the range of marking rates actually observed in the Great Lakes. Type A (piercing) marking rates were a good index of the sea lamprey attack rate and the sea lamprey-induced mortality rate if annual lethality rates were relatively constant. Type B (non-piercing) marking rates were a good index of the sea lamprey attack rate and the sea lamprey-induced mortality rate if annual pierce rates were relatively constant. Due to the uncertainty surrounding the pierce and lethality rates, we recommend that sea lamprey abundance information be incorporated in existing lake trout statistical catch-at-age models via a functional response component relating sea lamprey feeding to lake trout abundance, if possible.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2021

Trade-offs between suppression and eradication of sea lampreys from the Great Lake

Ecosystem managers confronted with newly invasive species may respond with a program of suppression or eradication. Suppression of an invasive species refers to management of a species such that its effect on other biota in the local ecosystem is acceptable. Eradication is the removal of all individuals of a species from a defined region. We examine the cost and benefit trade-offs between suppression and eradication of Laurentian Great Lakes sea lampreys ( Petromyzon marinus ) based on discussions at the 3rd Sea Lamprey International Symposium (held in 2019). Substantial effort has been expended annually since the 1960s to suppress sea lampreys in the Great Lakes basin. Choosing between suppression and eradication is a value judgement, ideally made jointly by scientists, decision-makers, stakeholders, and society. Successful large-scale eradications have been limited to a small number of cases for which the cost to human society justified and supported the long-term commitment necessary for success. The greatest challenge to successful eradication of sea lampreys from the Great Lakes may be a suitable social, political, legal, and institutional environment. Preparations could be made now for a transition in which public pushback on current control methods (pesticide applications and barriers to fish passage) leads to more extensive use of an alternative control method, such as genetic control.

Great Lakes and Saint Lawrence River areas↗

USGS2020

Investigating apparent misalignment of predator-prey dynamics: Great Lakes lake trout and sea lampreys

Interpreting ecological dynamics is challenging when observed patterns are not aligned with presumed models. Investigating possible sources of uncertainty is critical to understand the underlying system and ultimately inform management decisions. In this study, we used simulation to investigate the hypothesis that observed inconsistencies in Great Lakes lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) and sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) predator-prey dynamics were caused by measurement error in the abundance and predation metrics. When lake trout abundances increase and sea lamprey abundances decrease, predation rates are expected to decline (and vice versa). Occasionally predation rates do not change as expected, leading to an inconsistency in expected predator-prey dynamics. We used a Type II functional response model to align lake trout relative abundance, adult sea lamprey abundance, and sea lamprey marking rates of lake trout in each Great Lake. Then we added measurement error to each of the simulated metrics to see how it contributed to observed inconsistencies in the marking rates. The simulated inconsistency rate was far less than the observed inconsistency rate in Lakes Superior and Erie, indicating that measurement error was not primarily responsible for the misalignment of metrics, contrary to our hypothesis. Rather than ignoring these inconsistencies as unfortunate consequences of imperfect assessments, we recommend that future inconsistencies be scrutinized for possible mechanistic explanations. We suspect that predator-prey dynamics are being influenced by spatially structured within-lake components and the presence of alternative hosts, neither of which were accounted for in the functional response model we used.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2018

Rapid evolution meets invasive species control: The potential for pesticide resistance in sea lamprey

Rapid evolution of pest, pathogen and wildlife populations can have undesirable effects; for example, when insects evolve resistance to pesticides or fishes evolve smaller body size in response to harvest. A destructive invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes, the sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) has been controlled with the pesticide 3-trifluoromethyl-4-nitrophenol (TFM) since the 1950s. We evaluated the likelihood of sea lamprey evolving resistance to TFM by (1) reviewing sea lamprey life history and control; (2) identifying physiological and behavioural resistance strategies; (3) estimating the strength of selection from TFM; (4) assessing the timeline for evolution; and (5) analyzing historical toxicity data for evidence of resistance. The number of sea lamprey generations exposed to TFM was within the range observed for fish populations where rapid evolution has occurred. Mortality from TFM was estimated as 82-90%, suggesting significant selective pressure. However, 57 years of toxicity data revealed no increase in lethal concentrations of TFM. Vigilance and the development of alternative controls are required to prevent this aquatic invasive species from evolving strategies to evade control.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2016

Thiamine and lipid utilization in fasting Chinook salmon

A laboratory study was conducted to estimate utilization rates of thiamine (vitamin B 1 ) and lipid in whole fish, muscle, and liver tissues of fasting Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ). The experiment was conducted with Chinook salmon held at 5ºC over a period of 150 days to simulate fasting during migration or overwintering. Chinook salmon body length and wet weight did not change ( p > 0.05) over the course of the study; however, significant declines were observed in muscle thiamine ( p < 0.01) and lipid (p < 0.01). There was an inverse relationship between lipid and water content. Under the experimental conditions with no strenuous swimming, thiamine utilization rates reported are conservative estimates and were found to be 5.3–6.8 pmol·g -1 ·day -1 in muscle tissue and ~110 pmol·g -1 ·day -1 in liver tissue over the first 100 days. Fasting lipid depletion rates in whole fish were calculated to be 0.14–0.16%·d -1 . Muscle lipid decline rate (0.13%·day -1 ) over the first 100 days was similar to whole fish lipid loss, however, muscle lipid utilization was slower (0.04%·day -1 ) over the last 50 days. During periods of fasting, Chinook salmon deplete bodily reserves of both thiamine and lipid which may have consequences for successful spawning migration and overwinter survival.

North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission Bulletin↗

USGS2016

Evaluating harvest-based control of invasive fish with telemetry: Performance of sea lamprey traps in the Great Lakes

Physical removal (e.g., harvest via traps or nets) of mature individuals may be a cost-effective or socially acceptable alternative to chemical control strategies for invasive species, but requires knowledge of the spatial distribution of a population over time. We used acoustic telemetry to determine the current and possible future role of traps to control and assess invasive sea lampreys, Petromyzon marinus , in the St. Marys River, the connecting channel between Lake Superior and Lake Huron. Exploitation rates (i.e., fractions of an adult sea lamprey population removed by traps) at two upstream locations were compared among three years and two points of entry to the system. Telemetry receivers throughout the drainage allowed trap performance (exploitation rate) to be partitioned into two components: proportion of migrating sea lampreys that visited trap sites (availability) and proportion of available sea lampreys that were caught by traps (local trap efficiency). Estimated exploitation rates were well below those needed to provide population control in the absence of lampricides and were limited by availability and local trap efficiency. Local trap efficiency estimates for acoustic-tagged sea lampreys were lower than analogous estimates regularly obtained using traditional mark–recapture methods, suggesting that abundance had been previously underestimated. Results suggested major changes would be required to substantially increase catch, including improvements to existing traps, installation of new traps, or other modifications to attract and retain more sea lampreys. This case study also shows how bias associated with telemetry tags can be estimated and incorporated in models to improve inferences about parameters that are directly relevant to fishery management.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2016

Effects of coded-wire-tagging on stream-dwelling Sea Lamprey larvae

The effects of coded wire tagging Sea Lamprey Petromyzon marinus larvae from a known-aged stream-dwelling population were assessed. Tagged larvae were significantly shorter on average than untagged larvae from 3 to 18 months after tagging. However, 30 months after tagging, the length distribution of tagged and untagged larvae did not differ and tagged Sea Lampreys were in better condition (i.e., higher condition factor) and more likely to have undergone metamorphosis than the untagged population. The reason why tagged larvae were more likely to metamorphose is not clear, but the increased likelihood of metamorphosis could have been a compensatory response to the period of slower growth after tagging. Slower growth after tagging was consistent across larval size-classes, so handling and displacement from quality habitat during the early part of the growing season was likely the cause rather than the tag burden. The tag effects observed in this study, if caused by displacement and handling, may be minimized in future studies if tagging is conducted during autumn after growth has concluded for the year.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2016

Management strategy evaluation of pheromone-baited trapping techniques to improve management of invasive sea lamprey

We applied a management strategy evaluation (MSE) model to examine the potential cost-effectiveness of using pheromone-baited trapping along with conventional lampricide treatment to manage invasive sea lamprey. Four pheromone-baited trapping strategies were modeled: (1) stream activation wherein pheromone was applied to existing traps to achieve 10 −12 mol/L in-stream concentration, (2) stream activation plus two additional traps downstream with pheromone applied at 2.5 mg/hr (reverse-intercept approach), (3) trap activation wherein pheromone was applied at 10 mg/hr to existing traps, and (4) trap activation and reverse-intercept approach. Each new strategy was applied, with remaining funds applied to conventional lampricide control. Simulating deployment of these hybrid strategies on fourteen Lake Michigan streams resulted in increases of 17 and 11% (strategies 1 and 2) and decreases of 4 and 7% (strategies 3 and 4) of the lakewide mean abundance of adult sea lamprey relative to status quo. MSE revealed performance targets for trap efficacy to guide additional research because results indicate that combining lampricides and high efficacy trapping technologies can reduce sea lamprey abundance on average without increasing control costs.

Natural Resource Modeling↗

USGS2016

Tradeoff between assessment and control of aquatic invasive species: A case study of sea lamprey management in the St. Marys River

Allocating resources between the gathering of information to guide management actions and implementing those actions presents an inherent tradeoff. This tradeoff is evident for control of the Sea Lamprey Petromyzon marinus in the St. Marys River, connecting Lakes Huron and Superior and a major source of parasitic Sea Lampreys to Lake Huron and northern Lake Michigan. Larval Sea Lampreys in the St. Marys River are controlled through the application of Bayluscide, which is applied to areas of high larval density. Bayluscide applications are guided with an annual deepwater electrofishing survey to estimate larval Sea Lamprey density at relatively fine spatial scales. We took a resampling approach to describe the effect of sampling intensity on the success of the larval Sea Lamprey management program and explicitly incorporated the economic tradeoff between assessment and control efforts to maximize numbers of larvae killed in the St. Marys River. When no tradeoff between assessment and control was incorporated, increasing assessment always led to more larvae killed for the same treatment budget. When the tradeoff was incorporated, the sampling intensity that maximized the number of larvae killed depended on the overall budget available. Increased sampling intensities maximized effectiveness under medium to large budgets (US \$0.4 to \$2.0 million), and intermediate sampling intensities maximized effectiveness under low budgets. Sea Lamprey control actions based on assessment information outperformed those that were implemented with no assessment under all budget scenarios.

St. Marys River↗

USGS2015

Spatial synchrony in cisco recruitment

We examined the spatial scale of recruitment variability for disparate cisco ( Coregonus artedi ) populations in the Great Lakes ( n = 8) and Minnesota inland lakes ( n = 4). We found that the scale of synchrony was approximately 400 km when all available data were utilized; much greater than the 50-km scale suggested for freshwater fish populations in an earlier global analysis. The presence of recruitment synchrony between Great Lakes and inland lake cisco populations supports the hypothesis that synchronicity is driven by climate and not dispersal. We also found synchrony in larval densities among three Lake Superior populations separated by 25–275 km, which further supports the hypothesis that broad-scale climatic factors are the cause of spatial synchrony. Among several candidate climate variables measured during the period of larval cisco emergence, maximum wind speeds exhibited the most similar spatial scale of synchrony to that observed for cisco. Other factors, such as average water temperatures, exhibited synchrony on broader spatial scales, which suggests they could also be contributing to recruitment synchrony. Our results provide evidence that abiotic factors can induce synchronous patterns of recruitment for populations of cisco inhabiting waters across a broad geographic range, and show that broad-scale synchrony of recruitment can occur in freshwater fish populations as well as those from marine systems.

Minnesota↗

USGS2015

Comparing methods for estimating larval sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) density in the St. Marys River for the purposes of control

The St. Marys River is a major producer of parasitic sea lampreys ( Petromyzon marinus ) to Lake Huron making it an important area for larval control. Bayluscide treatments are conducted in areas of high larval density requiring density estimation at fine spatial scales to inform treatment decisions. We evaluated six methods of estimating spatially specific density including the currently used sampling-based estimates, a generalized linear model (GLM) based on mean larval density per plot, a GLM based on larval density per sample, a generalized additive model based on mean larval density per plot, a spatial age-structured population model, and a hybrid approach, which averaged the best performing sampling- and model-based methods. Methods were evaluated based on accuracy in matching independent validation data. Specifically, the methods were evaluated based on their ability to project plot-level larval density, identify high density plots for treatment, and rank plots in order based on density resulting in high numbers of sea lampreys killed per hectare treated. Performance was variable, and no single method outperformed the others for all metrics. Although the sampling-based estimation method and the GLM based on catch data performed adequately for estimating density and identifying high density plots, the hybrid approach was identified as the best method to inform sea lamprey control decisions in the St. Marys River due to its consistent performance. Incorporating model-based approaches should lead to a more efficient and effective treatment program in the St. Marys River and aid in making decisions about the allocation of control resources.

St. Marys River↗