Geology topics

Michael E. Wieczorek

Publications and source records attributed to Michael E. Wieczorek.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2022

A hydrologic perspective of major U.S. droughts

Drought is a recurring natural hazard that has substantial human and environmental impacts. Given continued global warming and associated climate change, there is concern that droughts could become more severe and longer lasting. To better monitor and understand drought development and persistence, it is helpful to understand the development and climatic drivers of past droughts. In this study we use monthly runoff percentiles to identify five major drought events in the conterminous United States (CONUS) from 1901 through 2020. For each drought event we examined spatial patterns of departures of mean monthly precipitation, temperature, soil moisture storage, and runoff for 2,107 hydrologic units (HUs) across the CONUS. Results indicated that precipitation deficits have been the primary driver of past major-drought events and temperature a secondary driver, even of the most recent drought event (September 1999 through September 2015) when positive temperature anomalies occurred over most of the CONUS. Additionally, negative soil moisture storage departures were more negative than runoff departures during the five drought events we examined, which emphasizes the importance of measuring both runoff and soil moisture to monitor drought conditions. We also examined the use of statistical persistence to develop short-term (i.e., 1 month) forecasts of runoff drought conditions in the CONUS by developing autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for each HU. Results indicated that persistence can be used to predict short-term changes in the spatial pattern of drought and the areal extent of drought, but that predictions of runoff magnitude for any particular site are often poor.

International Journal of Climatology↗

USGS2020

An enhanced hydrologic stream network based on the NHDPlus medium resolution dataset

The National Hydrography Dataset Plus, Version 2.1 (NHDPlusV2.1) is an attribute-rich digital stream network for the conterminous United States, serving as a foundational infrastructure for reporting hydrologic information at both regional and national scales. SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) is a process-based statistical model that relies on a digital hydrologic network like NHDPlusV2.1 to establish spatial relations between quantities of monitored contaminant loads and contaminant sources, accounting for the physical characteristics along flow paths affecting contaminant transport. The U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment project adopted and modified the medium-resolution NHDPlusV2.1 network for use as the primary framework supporting SPARROW modeling. This report describes the enhancements made to improve the routing capabilities and the value-added attributes of NHDPlusV2.1 to support modeling and other hydrologic analyses. These enhancements include corrections to inconsistencies in network/routing information, filling in missing attribute values of associated characteristics, accounting of water use affecting flow, new variables useful for interpreting network data, revised flowline attributes such as slope and flow, and incorporation of ancillary spatial data into the network. The resulting dataset containing the enhancements to the network is named E2NHDPlusV2_US. Although the enhancements described in the report were developed for use in SPARROW modeling, the enhancements are expected to be useful for a wide variety of hydrologic studies within the United States.

Conterminous United States↗

USGS2019

Prediction and inference of flow-duration curves using multi-output neural networks

We develop multi-output neural network models (MNNs) to predict flow-duration curves (FDCs) in 9,203 ungaged locations in the Southeastern United States for six decades between 1950-2009. The model architecture contains multiple response variables in the output layer that correspond to individual quantiles along the FDC. During training, predictions are made for each quantile, and a combined loss function is used for back propagation and parameter updating. The loss function accounts for the covariance between the quantiles and generates physically consistent outputs (i.e., monotonically increasing quantiles with increasing nonexceedance probabilities). We use neural-network dropout to generate posterior-predictive distributions for FDCs, and test model performance under cross validation. Finally, we demonstrate how local surrgotate models, via the Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) method, can be used to infer the relation between basin characteristics and the predicted FDCs. Results suggest that MNNs can learn the monotonic relations between adjacent quantiles on an FDC, they result in better predictions than single output neural-network models that predict each quantile independently, and basin characteristics are most useful for predicting smaller quantiles, whereas bias terms from neighboring quantiles are most informative for predicting higher quantiles.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2016

High nitrate concentrations in some Midwest United States streams in 2013 after the 2012 drought

Nitrogen sources in the Mississippi River basin have been linked to degradation of stream ecology and to Gulf of Mexico hypoxia. In 2013, the USGS and the USEPA characterized water quality stressors and ecological conditions in 100 wadeable streams across the midwestern United States. Wet conditions in 2013 followed a severe drought in 2012, a weather pattern associated with elevated nitrogen concentrations and loads in streams. Nitrate concentrations during the May to August 2013 sampling period ranged from <0.04 to 41.8 mg L −1 as N (mean, 5.31 mg L −1 ). Observed mean May to June nitrate concentrations at the 100 sites were compared with May to June concentrations predicted from a regression model developed using historical nitrate data. Observed concentrations for 17 sites, centered on Iowa and southern Minnesota, were outside the 95% confidence interval of the regression-predicted mean, indicating that they were anomalously high. The sites with a nitrate anomaly had significantly higher May to June nitrate concentrations than sites without an anomaly (means, 19.8 and 3.6 mg L −1 , respectively) and had higher antecedent precipitation indices, a measure of the departure from normal precipitation, in 2012 and 2013. Correlations between nitrate concentrations and watershed characteristics and nitrogen and oxygen isotopes of nitrate indicated that fertilizer and manure used in crop production, principally corn, were the dominant sources of nitrate. The anomalously high nitrate levels in parts of the Midwest in 2013 coincide with reported higher-than-normal nitrate loads in the Mississippi River.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

USGS1998

National water-quality assessment of the Lake Erie-Lake St. Clair Basin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York — Environmental and hydrologic setting

The Lake Erie-Lake St. Clair Basin covers approximately 22,300 mi 2 (square miles) in parts of Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York. Situated in two major physiographic provinces, the Appalachian Plateaus and the Central Lowland, the basin includes varied topographic and geomorphic features that affect the hydrology. As of 1990, the basin was inhabited by approximately 10.4 million people. Lake effect has a large influence on the temperature and precipitation of the basin, especially along the leeward southeast shore of Lake Erie. Mean annual precipitation generally increases from west to east, ranging from 31.8 inches at Detroit, Mich., to 43.8 inches at Erie, Pa. The rocks that underlie the Lake Erie-Lake St. Clair Basin range in age from Cambrian through Pennsylvanian, but only Silurian through Pennsylvanian rocks are part of the shallow ground-water flow system. The position of the basin on the edge of the Michigan and Appalachian Basins is responsible for the large range in geologic time of the exposed rocks. Rock types range from shales, siltstones, and mudstones to coarse-grained sandstones and conglomerates. Carbonate rocks consisting of limestones, dolomites, and calcareous shales also underlie the basin. All the basin is overlain by Pleistocene deposits- till, fine-grained stratified sediments, and coarse-grained stratified sediments-most of Wisconsinan age. A system of buried river valleys filled with various lacustrine, alluvial, and coarse glacial deposits is present in the basin. The soils of the Lake Erie-Lake St. Clair Basin consist of two dominant soil orders: Alfisols and Inceptisols. Four other soil orders in the basin (Mollisols, Histisols, Entisols, and Spodosols) are of minor significance, making up less than 8 percent of the total area. The estimated water use for the Lake Erie-Lake St. Clair Basin for 1990 was 10,649 Mgal/d (million gallons per day). Power generation accounted for about 77 percent of total water withdrawals for the basin, whereas agriculture accounted for the least water-use withdrawals, at an estimated 38 Mgal/d. About 98 percent of the total water used in the basin was drawn from surface water; the remaining 2 percent was from ground water. Agricultural and urban land are the predominant land covers in the basin. Agriculture makes up approximately 74.7 percent of the total basin area; urban land use accounts for 11.2 percent; forested areas constitute 10.5 percent; and water, wetlands, rangeland, and barren land constitute less than 4.0 percent. The eight principal streams in the basin are the Clinton, Huron, and Raisin Rivers in Michigan, the Maumee, Sandusky, Cuyahoga, and Grand Rivers in Ohio, and Cattaraugus Creek in New York. The Maumee River, the largest stream in the basin, drains 6,609 mi 2 and discharges just under 24 percent of the streamflow from the basin into Lake Erie. Combined, the eight principal streams discharge approximately 54 percent of the surface water from the basin to the Lake Erie system per year. Average runoff increases from west to east in the basin. The glacial and recent deposits comprise the unconsolidated aquifers and confining units within the basin. Yields of wells completed in tills range from 0 to 20 gal/min (gallon per minute), but yields generally are near the lower part of this range. Fine-grained stratified deposits can be expected to yield from 0 to 3 gal/ min, and coarse-grained stratified deposits can yield 0.3 to 2,050 gal/min. Pennsylvanian sandstones can yield more than 25 gal/min, but they generally yield 10 to 25 gal/min. Mississippian sandstones in the basin generally yield 2 to 100 gal/min. The Mississippian and Devonian shales are considered to be confining units; in places, they produce small quantities of water from fractures at or near the bedrock surface. Wells completed in the Devonian and Silurian carbonates yield 25 to 500 gal/min, but higher yields have been reported in several zones.

Indiana, Michigan, New York , Ohio, Pennsylvania↗