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Matthew Richard Falcy

Publications and source records attributed to Matthew Richard Falcy.

11 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Integrating data on a mixed stock anadromous fishery to estimate stock-specific escapement and mortalities

Objective Anadromous fisheries can affect stocks with differing management objectives. Understanding the effects of fisheries on individual stocks by quantifying final dispositions, including escapement and mortalities, is important for sustainable fishery management. Our objectives were to extend an existing management model that is used to evaluate final stock dispositions to estimate confidence intervals and to generalize the model so that it could be applied in other systems. Methods An annual run reconstruction model for estimating final dispositions of Snake River steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss was previously developed to evaluate mortalities and escapement for each stock. We extended and generalized this model in two ways: (1) to propagate uncertainty using Monte Carlo simulation and (2) to fit the model using maximum likelihood methods. We generated confidence intervals and conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate sources of uncertainty. Results The Monte Carlo version of the model explicitly propagates uncertainty in inputs through to model predictions, whereas the maximum likelihood version includes additional data sources, such as catch composition and escapement. We estimated disposition metrics for Snake River steelhead using the original formulation, Monte Carlo version, and the maximum likelihood version for the 2018–2019 season, and we found that the results were similar but that the maximum likelihood version provided a better fit to the observed data. Conclusions We demonstrate how to account for uncertainty when synthesizing several kinds of monitoring data. Improved characterizations of uncertainty facilitate better decision making about future data collection and fisheries management.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
USGS2025

Mechanisms influencing thermal refuges and territory occupancy by collared pikas during summer and winter

Collared pikas ( Ochotona collaris ) are cold adapted alpine lagomorphs of western Canada and Alaska, USA, that are vulnerable to direct and indirect effects of climate change. However, how and to what extent such changes influence persistence for this species is not well understood, particularly at fine spatial scales. Our goal was to evaluate how microclimate and microhabitat characteristics influence occupancy of collared pikas. We quantified thermal conditions during both summer and winter to test hypotheses about potential drivers of pika persistence. We recorded den occupancy and territory characteristics, including in situ measurements of den microclimate, across three study areas with contrasting climate gradients in southcentral and interior Alaska during 2017–2022. We examined changes in pika den occurrence by estimating annual colonization and extinction rates with a Bayesian dynamic occurrence model with forage availability, rock size, and multiple den temperature metrics as the explanatory variables. Our top model indicated that daily maximum temperature during both summer and winter best predicted den persistence and larger rocks had a moderating effect on warm summer den temperatures. This information helps to advance understanding about the mechanistic links between climate and population persistence for small mammal species under a rapidly changing arctic climate.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

Mammalian predator co‐occurrence affected by prey and habitat more than competitor presence at multiple time scales

The behavior and abundance of sympatric predators can be affected by a complex dominance hierarchy. The strength of antagonistic interactions in predator communities is difficult to study and remains poorly understood for many predator assemblages. Predators directly and indirectly influence the broader ecosystem, so identifying the relative importance of competition, prey, and habitat in shaping predator interactions has broad conservation and management implications. We investigated space use among five predator species (black bear [ Ursus americanus ], bobcat [ Lynx rufus ], coyote [ Canis latrans ], mountain lion [ Puma concolor ], and gray wolf [ Canis lupus ]) across three temporal scales in northern Idaho, USA. We used camera trap data to test whether potentially subordinate predators spatially avoided dominant predators and how prey availability influenced those relationships. We found few instances of subordinate predators spatially avoiding dominant predators and only at the finest temporal scale of our analyses. Instead, habitat features generally influenced predator space use patterns at coarser scales whereas prey and competitor presence influenced space use patterns at finer scales. Co-occurrence was positively associated between coyotes and bobcats at coarser timescales and between mesopredators and apex predators at finer timescales. Bobcats and mountain lions temporarily delayed the use of sites recently visited by coyotes and black bears, respectively. And all predator species used sites sooner following the detection of a competitor in areas with higher relative abundances of prey (primarily white-tailed deer [ Odocoileus virginianus ]). Our results suggest attraction to shared habitats and prey resources influenced space use in the predator community more than avoidance of competitors. We propose that the effects of interspecific interactions on predator distributions were most evident for mesopredators because their trophic position requires balancing risks and rewards associated with prey, apex predators, and other mesopredators. In addition, relatively high densities of a common prey source likely facilitated the spatial coexistence in this predator community. Our study demonstrates the value of simultaneously assessing multiple interspecific interactions across different spatiotemporal scales to discern relationships within the predator guild.

Idaho↗
USGS2025

Elevation mediates juvenile steelhead demographic response to stream temperature and flow

Climate change alters streams by modifying flow dynamics, temperature, and biotic communities, changing the habitat where stream dwelling fish have evolved. We used snorkel survey data spanning four decades to investigate how juvenile steelhead (anadromous Oncorhynchus mykiss ) counts and size structure were influenced by stream temperature and flow. Warmer temperatures were associated with lower abundance and larger fish at low elevations and with higher abundance and smaller fish at higher elevations. Low flows were related to increased abundance and smaller fish at low elevations but to decreased abundance at high elevations, suggesting that lower elevation streams, which tend to be larger, provided additional habitat during low flows. High flows were negatively related to abundance and positively related to average size, suggesting emigration of fish in younger age-classes. Overall, steelhead exhibited greater resilience to warm temperatures at high elevations and, conversely, greater resilience to low and high flows at lower elevations. Understanding how streamflow and temperature affect juvenile steelhead abundance and size structure provides insight into how climate change can affect juvenile steelhead production.

Idaho↗
USGS2024

Gene flow prevents genetic diversity loss despite small effective population size in fragmented grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) populations

Genetic monitoring is important in small, fragmented populations that rely on gene flow to maintain genetic diversity. The Selkirk, Yaak, and Cabinet grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ) populations are among the smallest in North America and are near the southernmost extent of the species’ range. These populations received little to no effective migration for generations but have recently experienced increased gene flow through natural migration and a population augmentation program. A long-term dataset of grizzly bear microsatellite genotypes from 1973 to 2021 presented a unique opportunity to examine genetic trends in these populations over time. We used this dataset of 464 bears to evaluate if gene flow affected observed heterozygosity ( H O ), expected heterozygosity ( H E ), allelic richness ( A R ), and average pairwise relatedness ( r ) in each of these populations. We also estimated effective population size ( N e ) using the temporal and linkage disequilibrium (LD) methods. Post gene flow, A R increased in the Selkirk and Cabinet populations and r decreased in all three populations. We did not observe any significant changes in H E or H O , but H E values in our populations were significantly higher than those estimated using a model without gene flow. Our N e estimates were consistent between the temporal and LD methods and ranged from 15.2 to 15.8, 15.4–17.5, and 5.6–8.9 for the Selkirk, Yaak, and Cabinet populations, respectively. Overall, our findings indicate that gene flow is increasing or maintaining genetic diversity in these populations. However, N e remains low and additional connectivity or augmentation may be needed, particularly in the Cabinet population.

Idaho, Montana, Washington↗
USGS2024

Spatio-temporal distribution of adult Pacific lamprey Entosphenus tridentatus relative to habitat fragmentation

Pacific lamprey ( Entosphenus tridentatus ), a fish species native to the Pacific Northwest (USA), have distinctive cultural and ecological value but determining their spatial and temporal distribution is challenging due to a general lack systematic monitoring. In this study, we used counts of Pacific lamprey redds to model the probability of occurrence and abundance of Pacific lamprey based on environmental covariates including artificial barriers, assuming higher predicted lamprey redds translates to more suitable spawning habitats. Using generalized linear mixed zero-inflated models, results suggest that Pacific lamprey abundance was generally lower in high gradient streams, further from the ocean. Stream reaches with warmer spring water temperatures and greater historical median spring flows supported higher abundances. Lamprey occurrence was primarily influenced by spring water temperatures and distance from the ocean. We further observed that when streams warm beyond 18°C, confidence intervals around the abundance estimates widen and zero-inflation increases, indicating a decrease in occurrence. One objective of the study was to recommend where barrier removal or restoration should be prioritized to increase passage and thus access to upstream habitats. We considered artificial barriers to primarily influence the probability of occurrence through access. The barrier variable in this model had a negative effect on the probability of lamprey occurrence, but it was not a strong predictor in the model. While we are not able to suggest specific locations that would most benefit barrier removal or improvement based on these model results, we can identify the watersheds with a higher probability to support Pacific lamprey and provide potential additional habitats by improving habitat connectivity. Focusing restoration and/ or removal of barriers on watersheds in the Mid-South region of the Oregon Coast (i.e., Alsea, Siuslaw, Coos, Coquille, and Sixes rivers) with higher habitat suitability could prioritize use of limited funds, increase the probability of benefiting Pacific lamprey, and potentially other native lampreys and migratory (e.g., salmon, steelhead; Oncorhynchus ) species. Although this manuscript focuses on the Oregon Coast region, the methods are transferrable to other regions where Pacific lamprey are present.

Oregon↗
USGS2024

Quantifying uncertainty when extrapolating the relationship between snorkel counts and mark-recapture estimates of juvenile salmonids

Snorkel surveys are frequently used to monitor stream-dwelling fish. Inferring local abundance from snorkel surveys is complicated by two primary factors: variable fish detection probabilities and the relative abundance of fish in habitat types below the recommended minimum depth for snorkeling. We examine these factors across three salmonid species ( Oncorhynchus spp . ), 4 years, and 113 location-years in Oregon coastal streams. We calibrate snorkel counts to mark-recapture estimates and develop mathematically explicit expressions that convert a new snorkel count into a probability density of abundance for streams containing mixed habitat types that were and were not snorkeled. Snorkelers detected 63%, 47%, and 39% of juvenile coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kitsutch ), steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ), and cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkia ) estimated by mark-recapture, respectively, but uncertainty within and among sampling units was high. Further, analytics developed here can be used to infer abundance and uncertainty for habitat types that were not snorkeled. Our quantification of uncertainty arising from using snorkel counts as a proxy for abundance will help managers balance biological risks with available resources.

Oregon↗
USGS2024

Cycles in adult steelhead length suggest interspecific competition in the North Pacific Ocean

Anadromous fishes rely on abundant prey in the ocean to grow large quickly, but prey limitation leads to interspecific competition. When species interactions are difficult to observe, growth can be studied to detect otherwise cryptic signals of competition. We describe a previously undocumented two-year cycle in the lengths of adult natural-origin steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) returning to spawn in the Snake River Basin. Returning steelhead were 38 mm shorter on odd return years, not accounting for sex, stock, and years of ocean residence. The well-known cycle in abundance of Pink Salmon from eastern Kamchatka and North America had statistically significant negative effects on returning steelhead lengths that depended on sex and the number of years of ocean residence. These results suggest that competition for limited resources occurs well after initial ocean entry and that interactions during later stages of ocean residence can be influential. Interspecific competition has implications for future returns of steelhead from the ocean, especially as metabolic demands for steelhead increase as the ocean warms.

North Pacific Ocean↗
USGS2023

Can angler-assisted broodstock collection programs improve harvest rates of hatchery-produced steelhead?

Fish that exhibit high foraging activity or bold behavior can be particularly vulnerable to angling. If these traits are heritable, selection through harvest can drive phenotypic change, eventually rendering a target population less vulnerable to angling and consequently impacting the quality of the fishery. In this study, we used parental-based tags to investigate whether vulnerability to angling might be heritable in steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) spawned at a hatchery in western Oregon, USA. We found modest evidence to support the hypothesis that vulnerability to angling is a heritable trait in steelhead. However, our data unexpectedly revealed that steelhead collected with in-river traps produced nearly twice as many adult offspring as steelhead collected by anglers. This difference in adult-to-adult production is explained in part through lower egg-to-fry survival of steelhead produced with angler-caught broodstock, possibly related to collection stress and greater time in captivity experienced by angler-caught broodstock. Our findings suggest that managers could improve broodstock fitness and program efficiencies by preferentially spawning fish collected with traps, and limiting use of broodstock collected by anglers. Additional research is needed to identify mechanisms contributing to higher juvenile mortality of steelhead produced with angler-caught broodstock.

Oregon↗
USGS2021

Using social values in the prioritization of research: Quantitative examples and generalizations

Identifying critical uncertainties about ecological systems can help prioritize research efforts intended to inform management decisions. However, exclusively focusing on the ecological system neglects the objectives of natural resource managers and the associated social values tied to risks and rewards of actions. I demonstrate how to prioritize research efforts for a harvested population by applying expected value of perfect information (EVPI) to harvest decisions made with a density-independent matrix population model. Research priorities identified by EVPI diverge from priorities identified by matrix elasticity analyses that ignore social utility. Using a density-dependent harvest model, the value of information about the intrinsic productivity of a population is shown to be sensitive to the socially determined penalty for implementing a harvest rate that deviates from the goal because of imperfection in estimation. Synthesis and applications . The effect of including social values into harvest decision-making depends on the assumed population model, uncertainty in population vital rates, and the particular form of the utility function used to represent risk/reward of harvest. EVPI analyses that include perceived utility of different outcomes can be used by managers seeking to optimize monitoring and research spending. Collaboration between applied ecologists and social scientists that quantitatively measure peoples' values is needed in many structured decision-making processes.

Ecology and Evolution↗