Geology topics

Mary Jo Casalena

Publications and source records attributed to Mary Jo Casalena.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

A framework for analyzing wild turkey summer sighting data.

Wildlife agencies collect data on productivity (e.g., proportion of hens with poults and number of poults per hen) of wild turkey ( Meleagris gallopavo ) to monitor population status and trends. However, sampling protocols to collect productivity data rely on opportunistic observations reported by wildlife agency personnel and the public and have changed over time and differed among agencies. A protocol to standardize data collection was adopted by most state wildlife agencies in 2019, but long-term historical datasets exist that cannot be analyzed readily to make inferences about spatial and temporal patterns in wild turkey productivity. We developed statistical models to allow comparisons and model trends in productivity among and within states even though data collection protocols changed over time and differed among states. We found greater spatial variation in the proportion of hens with poults than the number of poults per brood, which may reflect how environmental factors influence wild turkey productivity. Our models can also provide inferences about productivity when data are limited or temporally discontinuous for some spatial units. Additionally, we found that temporal and spatial variation in data collection, even under the new protocol, can affect inferences about trends in productivity. The statistical models we developed address the uncontrolled nature of when and where data are collected and offer the ability to investigate long-term patterns of productivity in relation to factors such as changing climate or habitat conditions.

Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania↗

USGS2024

Multistage time-to-event models improve survival inference by partitioning mortality processes of tracked organisms

Advances in tagging technologies are expanding opportunities to estimate survival of fish and wildlife populations. Yet, capture and handling effects could impact survival outcomes and bias inference about natural mortality processes. We developed a multistage time-to-event model that can partition the survival process into sequential phases that reflect the tagged animal experience, including handling and release mortality, post-release recovery mortality, and subsequently, natural mortality. We demonstrate performance of multistage survival models through simulation testing and through fish and bird telemetry case studies. Models are implemented in a Bayesian framework and can accommodate left, right, and interval censorship events. Our results indicate that accurate survival estimates can be achieved with reasonable sample sizes ( n ≈ 100 + ) "> 𝑛≈100+) and that multimodel inference can inform hypotheses about the configuration and length of survival stages needed to adequately describe mortality processes for tracked specimens. While we focus on survival estimation for tagged fish and wildlife populations, multistage time-to-event models could be used to understand other phenomena of interest such as migration, reproduction, or disease events across a range of taxa including plants and insects.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2016

Retention of riveted aluminum leg bands by wild turkeys

In order for mark–recapture models to provide unbiased estimates of population parameters, it is critical that uniquely identifying tags or marks are not lost. We double-banded male and female wild turkeys with aluminum rivet bands and estimated the probability that a bird would be recovered with both bands <1–225 wk since banding (mean = 51.2 wk, SD = 44.0). We found that 100% of females ( n = 37) were recovered with both bands. For males, we recovered 6 of 188 turkeys missing a rivet band for a retention probability of 0.984 (95% CI = 0.96–0.99). If male turkeys are double-banded with rivet bands the probability of recovering a turkey without any marks is <0.001. We failed to detect a change in band retention over time or differences between adults and juveniles. Given the low cost and high retention rates of rivet aluminum bands, we believe they are an effective marking technique for wild turkeys and, for most studies, will minimize any concern about the assumption that marks are not lost.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2011

Variation in spring harvest rates of male wild turkeys in New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania

Spring harvest rates of male wild turkeys ( Meleagris gallapavo ) influence the number and proportion of adult males in the population and turkey population models have treated harvest as additive to other sources of mortality. Therefore, hunting regulations and their effect on spring harvest rates have direct implications for hunter satisfaction. We used tag recovery models to estimate survival rates, investigate spatial, temporal, and demographic variability in harvest rates, and assess how harvest rates may be related to management strategies and landscape characteristics. We banded 3,266 male wild turkeys throughout New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania during 2006–2009. We found little evidence that harvest rates varied by year or management zone. The proportion of the landscape that was forested within 6.5 km of the capture location was negatively related to harvest rates; however, even though the proportion forested ranged from 0.008 to 0.96 across our study area, this corresponded to differences in harvest rates of only 2–5%. Annual survival was approximately twice as high for juveniles as adults . In turn, spring harvest rates for adult turkeys were greater for adults than juveniles . We estimated the population of male turkeys in New York and Pennsylvania ranged from 104,000 to 132,000 in all years and ranged from 63,000 to 75,000 in Ohio. Because of greater harvest rates for adult males, the proportion of adult males in the population was less than in the harvest and ranged from 0.40 to 0.81 among all states and years. The high harvest rates observed for adults may be offset by greater recruitment of juveniles into the adult age class the following year such that these states can sustain high harvest rates yet still maintain a relative high proportion of adult males in the harvest and population.

New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania↗