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Mark W. Fritts

Publications and source records attributed to Mark W. Fritts.

8 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Combining branching processes and Allee effects into an integral projection model to assess invasion risk

Invasive species threaten both ecological systems and economies. Successful establishment is governed partly by demographic stochasticity, where random individual-level variation can significantly influence invasion dynamics. A critical factor is the Allee effect, which describes reduced population growth at low densities, potentially serving as a barrier to persistence. Size-dependent growth and survival further shape outcomes based on the size distribution of individuals within the population. To address these complexities, we developed a population-level model integrating an Integral Projection Model (IPM) for the expected size distribution with an Allee effect for recruitment dynamics and a branching process to account for demographic stochasticity. We applied this framework to Silver Carp ( Hypophthalmichthys molitrix ), a species established in the Upper Mississippi River system that poses significant risk of expanding into the Great Lakes. Our analysis compared temporal dynamics and population-size distributions under hypothetical introduction scenarios for large adult and smaller subadult fish. In both cases, initial population size relative to the Allee threshold was a critical determinant of establishment probability, with introductions below the threshold requiring stochastic growth across a critical biomass boundary before self-sustaining dynamics could take hold. Sensitivity analysis further indicated that per-spawner recruitment played a compounding role in invasion risk: higher recruitment rates reduced the critical introduction size for establishment and compressed the time to self-sustaining population size, jointly broadening the window of invasion risk. These findings highlight the framework’s potential for invasion assessments and offer insights into how Allee effects, size structure, and recruitment rates interact to govern establishment outcomes, while underscoring the need for species-specific parameter estimates before quantitative outputs can guide management decisions.

PLOS Ecosystems↗
USGS2026

Silver Carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix broad movement patterns and dispersal dynamics in the upper Mississippi River

Rivers are important movement corridors for fishes that allow for population connectivity. Within the upper Mississippi River Basin, invasive Silver Carp ( Hypophthalmichthys molitrix ) use tributaries including the Des Moines, Iowa, and Cedar rivers; however, the extent Silver Carp move and intermix among these systems and pools of the upper Mississippi River (UMR) is largely unknown. We used acoustic telemetry and multistate models to (1) identify individual and spatial variability in movement strategies, (2) use survival and transition probability estimates to evaluate population dynamics and connectivity, and (3) evaluate the influence of temporal and environmental variables on survival and transition probabilities. Weekly transition probabilities generally increased with discharge and ranged between 0.01 from UMR Pool 20 to outside the study area at 575 m 3 /s to 0.75 from UMR Pool 18 to outside the study area at 7200 m 3 /s. Survival decreased as temperature increased from 0 to 30 °C and was higher in tributaries than mainstem pools correlated with lower discharge. Overall, Silver Carp displayed diverse movement strategies with high connectivity that can inform invasive species management strategies.

upper Mississippi River↗
USGS2024

Flooding and dam operations facilitate rapid upstream migrations of native and invasive fish species on a regulated large river

Dams commonly restrict fish movements in large rivers but can also help curtail the spread of invasive species, such as invasive bigheaded carps ( Hypophthalmichthys spp). To determine how dams in the upper Mississippi River (UMR) affect large-scale invasive and native fish migrations, we tracked American paddlefish ( Polyodon spathula ) and bigheaded carp across > 600 river km (rkm) and 16 navigation locks and dams (LD) of the UMR during 2 years with contrasting water levels. In 2022, a low-water year, both native paddlefish and invasive bigheaded carp had low passage rates (4% and 0.6% respectively) through LD15, a movement bottleneck being studied for invasive carp control. In contrast, flooding in 2023 led to open-river conditions across multiple dams simultaneously, allowing 53% of paddlefish and 46% of bigheaded carp detected in Pool 16 to move upstream through LD15. Bigheaded carp passed upstream through LD15 rapidly (μ = 32 rkm per day) a maximum of 381 rkm, whereas paddlefish moved an average of 9 upstream rkm per day (maximum of 337 rkm). Our results can inform managers examining trade-offs between actions that enhance native fish passage or deter movements of invasive species. This understanding is critical because current climate change models project increases in flooding events like that observed during 2023.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗
USGS2024

Upstream experience and experimental translocation of invasive bigheaded carps results in increased upstream passage success at a navigation lock in a large river

Fish movements in regulated rivers can be challenging to study because anthropogenic modifications, such as locks and dams, can influence animal behavior. Upper Mississippi River Lock and Dam 19 (LD 19), for example, is an invasive carp movement bottleneck due to an impassable dam. Upstream fish passage at LD19 is restricted to the lock chamber, making it an optimal location to test invasive fish deterrents that could limit further range expansion. Evaluating the effectiveness of experimental deterrents requires baseline knowledge of fish movements and suitable sample sizes of fish encountering the deterrents to ensure adequate statistical power. Some evidence indicates fish with prior upstream experience may return upstream or challenge potential deterrents at a higher rate than fish without such experience. To test how previous upstream experience could increase the rate at which fish moved upstream through a navigation lock chamber, we compared upstream passage through LD 19 using bigheaded carp captured below the dam (downstream-origin) and two groups of bigheaded carp captured upstream from the dam: those that swam downstream on their own volition (upstream-origin fish) and those that were captured upstream and translocated downstream of LD 19 (translocated upstream-origin). Translocated upstream-origin carp demonstrated the highest rate of upstream passage, with 59% of the fish detected downstream from LD 19 passing upstream during our study. In contrast, downstream-origin carp made no upstream passages over 2 years. Fish origin was shown to influence upstream passage success. This may be an important consideration for fish passage studies and deterrent evaluations.

Illinois, Iowa↗
USGS2020

Asian carp population modeling to support an adaptive management framework

This Monitoring and Response Plan provides the Asian Carp Regional Coordinating Committee (ACRCC) with updates on FWS and USGS modeling efforts for the Spatially Explicit Asian carp Population (SEAcarP) model. For FY2020, efforts are underway to parameterize and analyze the SEAcarP model. Themes: invasive species; Asian carp; Great Lakes.

Illinois↗
USGS2013

Shifts in stable-isotope signatures confirm parasitic relationship of freshwater mussel glochidia attached to host fish

The parasitic nature of the association between glochidia of unionoidean bivalves and their host fish (i.e. the role of fish hosts in providing nutritional resources to the developing glochidia) is still uncertain. While previous work has provided descriptions of development of glochidia on fish hosts, earlier studies have not explicitly documented the flow of nutrition from the host fish to the juvenile mussel. Therefore, our objective was to use stable isotope analysis to quantitatively document nutrient flow between fish and glochidia. Glochidia were collected from nine adult Lampsilis cardium and used to inoculate Micropterus salmoides ( n = 27; three fish per maternal mussel) that produced juvenile mussels for the experiment. Adult mussel tissue samples, glochidia, transformed juvenile mussels and fish gill tissues were analysed for δ 15 N and δ 13 C isotope ratios. We used a linear mixing model to estimate the fraction of juvenile mussel tissue derived from the host fish's tissue during attachment. Our analyses indicate a distinct shift in both C and N isotopic ratios from the glochidial stage to the juvenile stage during mussel attachment and development. Linear mixing model analysis indicated that 57.4% of the δ 15 N in juvenile tissues were obtained from the host fish. This work provides novel evidence that larval unionoideans are true parasites that derive nutrition from host fish during their metamorphosis into the juvenile stage.

Journal of Molluscan Studies↗