Geology topics
Mark P. Herzog
Publications and source records attributed to Mark P. Herzog.
Projecting demographic responses to climate change: adult and juvenile survival respond differently to direct and indirect effects of weather in a passerine population
Few studies have quantitatively projected changes in demography in response to climate change, yet doing so can provide important insights into the processes that may lead to population declines and changes in species distributions. Using a long-term mark-recapture data set, we examined the influence of multiple direct and indirect effects of weather on adult and juvenile survival for a population of Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia) in California. We found evidence for a positive, direct effect of winter temperature on adult survival, and a positive, indirect effect of prior rainy season precipitation on juvenile survival, which was consistent with an effect of precipitation on food availability during the breeding season. We used these relationships, and climate projections of significantly warmer and slightly drier winter weather by the year 2100, to project a significant increase in mean adult survival (12-17%) and a slight decrease in mean juvenile survival (4-6%) under the B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. Together with results from previous studies on seasonal fecundity and postfledging survival in this population, we integrated these results in a population model and projected increases in the population growth rate under both climate change scenarios. Our results underscore the importance of considering multiple, direct, and indirect effects of weather throughout the annual cycle, as well as differences in the responses of each life stage to climate change. Projecting demographic responses to climate change can identify not only how populations will be affected by climate change but also indicate the demographic process(es) and specific mechanisms that may be responsible. This information can, in turn, inform climate change adaptation plans, help prioritize future research, and identify where limited conservation resources will be most effectively and efficiently spent.
Marsh wrens as bioindicators of mercury in wetlands of Great Salt Lake: do blood and feathers reflect site-specific exposure risk to bird reproduction?
Nonlethal sampling of bird blood and feathers are among the more common ways of estimating the risk of mercury exposure to songbird reproduction. The implicit assumption is that mercury concentrations in blood or feathers of individuals captured in a given area are correlated with mercury concentrations in eggs from the same area. Yet, this assumption is rarely tested. We evaluated mercury concentrations in blood, feathers, and eggs of marsh wrens in wetlands of Great Salt Lake, Utah, and, at two spatial scales, specifically tested the assumption that mercury concentrations in blood and feather samples from birds captured in a defined area were predictive of mercury concentrations in eggs collected in the same area. Mercury concentrations in blood were not correlated with mercury concentrations in eggs collected within the same wetland unit, and were poorly correlated with mercury concentrations in eggs collected at the smaller home range spatial scale of analysis. Moreover, mercury exposure risk, as estimated via tissue concentrations, differed among wetland units depending upon whether blood or egg mercury concentrations were sampled. Mercury concentrations in feathers also were uncorrelated with mercury concentrations in eggs, and were poorly correlated with mercury concentrations in blood. These results demonstrate the potential for contrasting management actions that may be implemented based solely on the specific avian tissue that is sampled, and highlight the importance of developing avian tissues as biomonitoring tools for assessing local risk of mercury exposure to bird reproduction.
Methylmercury is the predominant form of mercury in bird eggs: a synthesis
Bird eggs are commonly used in mercury monitoring programs to assess methylmercury contamination and toxicity to birds. However, only 6% of >200 studies investigating mercury in bird eggs have actually measured methylmercury concentrations in eggs. Instead, studies typically measure total mercury in eggs (both organic and inorganic forms of mercury), with the explicit assumption that total mercury concentrations in eggs are a reliable proxy for methylmercury concentrations in eggs. This assumption is rarely tested, but has important implications for assessing risk of mercury to birds. We conducted a detailed assessment of this assumption by (1) collecting original data to examine the relationship between total and methylmercury in eggs of two species, and (2) reviewing the published literature on mercury concentrations in bird eggs to examine whether the percentage of total mercury in the methylmercury form differed among species. Within American avocets ( Recurvirostra americana ) and Forster’s terns ( Sterna forsteri ), methylmercury concentrations were highly correlated (R 2 = 0.99) with total mercury concentrations in individual eggs (range: 0.03–7.33 μg/g fww), and the regression slope (log scale) was not different from one (m = 0.992). The mean percentage of total mercury in the methylmercury form in eggs was 97% for American avocets (n = 30 eggs), 96% for Forster’s terns (n = 30 eggs), and 96% among all 22 species of birds (n = 30 estimates of species means). The percentage of total mercury in the methylmercury form ranged from 63% to 116% among individual eggs and 82% to 111% among species means, but this variation was not related to total mercury concentrations in eggs, foraging guild, nor to a species life history strategy as characterized along the precocial to altricial spectrum. Our results support the use of total mercury concentrations to estimate methylmercury concentrations in bird eggs.
American Avocet (Recurvirostra americana)
This large, striking shorebird with long bluish-gray legs, a long recurved bill, and a black-and-white chevron pattern on its back and wings is one of four Avocet species in the world, the only one with distinct breeding and non-breeding plumages -- its grayish-white head and neck feathers become cinnamon in early spring as birds begin to form pairs and migrate to breeding areas.
Harvest and dynamics of duck populations
The role of harvest in the dynamics of waterfowl populations continues to be debated among scientists and managers. Our perception is that interested members of the public and some managers believe that harvest influences North American duck populations based on calls for more conservative harvest regulations. A recent review of harvest and population dynamics of North American mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) populations (Pöysä et al. 2004) reached similar conclusions. Because of the importance of this issue, we reviewed the evidence for an impact of harvest on duck populations. Our understanding of the effects of harvest is limited because harvest effects are typically confounded with those of population density; regulations are typically most liberal when populations are greatest. This problem also exists in the current Adaptive Harvest Management Program (Conn and Kendall 2004). Consequently, even where harvest appears additive to other mortality, this may be an artifact of ignoring effects of population density. Overall, we found no compelling evidence for strong additive effects of harvest on survival in duck populations that could not be explained by other factors.
Does mercury contamination reduce body condition of endangered California clapper rails?
We examined mercury exposure in 133 endangered California clapper rails ( Rallus longirostris obsoletus ) within tidal marsh habitats of San Francisco Bay, California from 2006 to 2010. Mean total mercury concentrations were 0.56 μg/g ww in blood (range: 0.15–1.43), 9.87 μg/g fw in head feathers (3.37–22.0), 9.04 μg/g fw in breast feathers (3.68–20.2), and 0.57 μg/g fww in abandoned eggs (0.15–2.70). We recaptured 21 clapper rails and most had low within-individual variation in mercury. Differences in mercury concentrations were largely attributed to tidal marsh site, with some evidence for year and quadratic date effects. Mercury concentrations in feathers were correlated with blood, and slopes differed between sexes ( R 2 = 0.58–0.76). Body condition was negatively related to mercury concentrations. Model averaged estimates indicated a potential decrease in body mass of 20–22 g (5–7%) over the observed range of mercury concentrations. Our results indicate the potential for detrimental effects of mercury contamination on endangered California clapper rails in tidal marsh habitats.
Waterbird nest monitoring program in San Francisco Bay (2005-10)
Historically, Forster’s Terns ( Sterna forsteri ), American Avocets ( Recurvirostra americana ), and Black-necked Stilts ( Himantopus mexicanus ) were uncommon residents of San Francisco Bay, California (Grinnell and others, 1918; Grinnell and Wythe, 1927; Sibley, 1952). Presently, however, avocets and stilts are the two most abundant breeding shorebirds in San Francisco Bay (Stenzel and others, 2002; Rintoul and others, 2003). More than 4,000 avocets and 1,000 stilts, roughly 20 percent of their San Francisco Bay wintering populations, breed within the estuary, making San Francisco Bay the largest breeding area for these species on the Pacific Coast (Stenzel and others, 2002; Rintoul and others, 2003). Forster’s Terns were first observed breeding in the San Francisco Bay in 1948 (110 nests); they had increased to over 4000 individuals by the 1980s (Sibley, 1952; Gill, 1977; Harvey and others, 1992; Carter and others, 1990) and were estimated at 2000–3000 for 1998–2002; (Strong and others, 2004). It is hypothesized that the relatively large size of the current waterbird breeding populations is a result of the creation of artificial salt evaporation ponds from the 1930s through the 1950s (Gill, 1977; Goals Project, 1999). Until recently, these salt ponds and associated islands used by waterbirds for nesting have been managed relatively similarly and have supported large breeding waterbird populations. Recently, the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project has implemented plans to convert 50–90 percent of the 15,000 acres of salt ponds in the South San Francisco Bay back to tidal marsh habitat. Therefore, there is concern that the Restoration Project, while benefiting other native species, could negatively influence local breeding populations of waterbirds that are reliant on salt pond habitats for both breeding and foraging. A primary goal of the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project is to maintain current breeding waterbird populations (South Bay Salt Pond Long-Term Restoration Project, 2004); thus, specific efforts are planned to ensure that the Restoration Project enhances the habitats of the remaining salt ponds for breeding waterbirds. Here, we provide a summary of nesting ecology data for Forster’s Terns, American Avocets, and Black-necked Stilts, collected from 2005 to 2010 in the areas of the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project, including lands managed by the Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge and Eden Landing Ecological Reserve. These results provide baseline conditions for breeding waterbirds prior to implementation of most restoration actions and can be used to both guide future restoration actions as well as to determine the effect of the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project on breeding waterbirds. It is imperative to continue to collect nesting waterbird data annually to assess the response of birds to the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project.
Bird mercury concentrations change rapidly as chicks age: Toxicological risk is highest at hatching and fledging
Toxicological risk of methylmercury exposure to juvenile birds is complex due to the highly transient nature of mercury concentrations as chicks age. We examined total mercury and methylmercury concentrations in blood, liver, kidney, muscle, and feathers of 111 Forster's tern (Sterna forsteri), 69 black-necked stilt (Himantopus mexicanus), and 43 American avocet (Recurvirostra americana) chicks as they aged from hatching through postfledging at wetlands that had either low or high mercury contamination in San Francisco Bay, California. For each waterbird species, internal tissue, and wetland, total mercury and methylmercury concentrations changed rapidly as chicks aged and exhibited a quadratic, U-shaped pattern from hatching through postfledging. Mercury concentrations were highest immediately after hatching, due to maternally deposited mercury in eggs, then rapidly declined as chicks aged and diluted their mercury body burden through growth in size and mercury depuration into growing feathers. Mercury concentrations then increased during fledging when mass gain and feather growth slowed, while chicks continued to acquire dietary mercury. In contrast to mercury in internal tissues, mercury concentrations in chick feathers were highly variable and declined linearly with age. For 58 recaptured Forster's tern chicks, the proportional change in blood mercury concentration was negatively related to the proportional change in body mass, but not to the amount of feathers or wing length. Thus, mercury concentrations declined more in chicks that gained more mass between sampling events. The U-shaped pattern of mercury concentrations from hatching to fledging indicates that juvenile birds may be at highest risk to methylmercury toxicity shortly after hatching when maternally deposited mercury concentrations are still high and again after fledging when opportunities for mass dilution and mercury excretion into feathers are limited.
The effects of wetland restoration on mercury bioaccumulation in the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project: Using the biosentinel toolbox to monitor changes across multiple habitats and spatial scales
The project was initiated in April 2010, and to date has included four sampling events of surface water (April, May, June/July, and August 2010) and five sampling events of biota (April, May, June/July, August, and September 2010) and three sampling events for surface sediment (May, June/July, and August 2010). This annual report briefly summarizes our progress to date.
Warmwater fish in rivers
Large warmwater rivers are complex ecosystems and often contain numerous species and habitats. We loosely define a large river as having a drainage area greater than 50,000 km2 and a stream order great than six. Further, these rivers typically have mean discharges greater than 1,500 m3/s. Channel patterns are highly variable among and within large rivers, generally forming a meandering pattern. Currently, many large rivers are confined by bank stabilization and are characterized by a straight channel because of anthropogenic alterations. Further, most large rivers in North America have altered hydrographs because of main-stem dams or dams within the drainage area. Large rivers that have been modified to reduce meandering and flooding present challenges for deployment and operation of fish sampling gear. Water temperature in large rivers is highly variable across North America and varies longitudinally within a river. For example, the Missouri River originates in the Rocky Mountains and terminates at the confluence with the Mississippi River near St. Louis, Missouri. Thus, mean water temperature in the headwaters is considerably different than the confluence. As a result, we defined warmwater by the dominant fish assemblage found in the river. Most fish species can be categorized into broad categories, such as coldwater, coolwater, or warmwater, based on water temperature in the natural environments where they occur. We define warmwater rivers as rivers that were naturally void of coldwater fishes such as trouts, salmons, and ciscoes. This is appropriate because it disregards zoogeographic boundaries that may limit the inclusion of rivers in the warmwater category. For example, the Colorado River is in a different zoogeographic subdivision than the Ohio River (Moyle and Cech 2000), but both rivers contain warmwater fish assemblages.
Effects of El Niño on distribution and reproductive performance of Black Brant
Climate in low-latitude wintering areas may influence temperate and high-latitude breeding populations of birds, but demonstrations of such relationships have been rare because of difficulties in linking wintering with breeding populations. We used long-term aerial surveys in Mexican wintering areas and breeding areas in Alaska, USA, to assess numbers of Black Brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ; hereafter brant) on their principal wintering and breeding area in El Niño and non-El Niño years. We used Pollock's robust design to directly estimate probability of breeding and apparent annual survival of individually marked brant at the Tutakoke River (TR) colony, Alaska, in each year between 1988 and 2001. Fewer brant wintered in Mexico during every El Niño event since 1965. Fewer brant were observed on the principal breeding area following each El Niño since surveys began in 1985. Probability of breeding was negatively related to January sea surface temperature along the subtropical coast of North America during the preceding winter. Between 23% (five-year-olds or older) and 30% (three-year-olds) fewer brant nested in 1998 following the strong El Niño event in the winter of 1997–1998 than in non-El Niño years. This finding is consistent with life history theory, which predicts that longer-lived species preserve adult survival at the expense of reproduction. Oceanographic conditions off Baja California, apparently by their effect on Zostera marina (eelgrass), strongly influence winter distribution of brant geese and their reproduction (but not survival), which in turn affects ecosystem dynamics in Alaska.
Early environment and recruitment of black brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) into the breeding population
In geese, growth regulates survival in the first year. We examined whether early growth, which is primarily governed by environmental conditions, also affects the probability that individuals that survive their first year enter the breeding population. We used logistic regression on a sample of Black Brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) that were weighed at a known age in their first summer and observed during winter (indicating that they had survived the principal mortality period in their first year) to study whether early growth influenced the probability that those individuals would be recruited into the breeding population. We also examined the effects of cohort (1986-1996), sex, age when measured, and area where individuals were reared. The model with the lowest Akaike's Information Criterion score contained body mass, age (days) at measurement, cohort, sex, and brood-rearing area. Models that included variable mass had 85% of the cumulative model weight of the models we considered, indicating that gosling mass had a substantial effect on probability of them entering the breeding population. Females were more likely to be detected breeding than males, which is consistent with the differential fidelity of the sexes. Of individuals that survived the first year, larger goslings were more likely to become breeders. More recent cohorts were less likely to have been detected as breeders. Our findings indicate that environment during the growth period affects the ability of individuals to enter the breeding population, even after accounting for the effects of growth on survival.