Geology topics

Mario B. Pesendorfer

Publications and source records attributed to Mario B. Pesendorfer.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Environmental and demographic mechanisms underlying population dynamics provide relative stability in an island songbird

Understanding demographic and ecological mechanisms underlying population dynamics is a key goal in population ecology and can inform effective conservation and management. Species may be well adapted to persist under normal ranges of environmental conditions, but increasingly novel conditions due to climate change may strain their demographic buffering mechanisms. Small isolated populations on islands are expected to be especially vulnerable to declines caused by novel environmental conditions, but the ecological drivers of population dynamics on islands are often unknown. We used an integrated population model to (1) examine ecological drivers of population growth and (2) assess global population trends of the Island Scrub-Jay ( Aphelocoma insularis ) from 2009 to 2019. Our results suggest that population size increased slightly over this interval despite declines during severe drought. We also found evidence that density dependence, precipitation, and food availability affected fecundity and the survival of nonbreeding individuals. Breeder survival was relatively stable and had a weak effect on population growth as expected for long-lived species. Overall, our results provide an optimistic snapshot for this species by demonstrating resilience to contemporary drought but also emphasize the species' potential vulnerability due to its small population size.

California↗

USGS2025

Weather drivers of reproductive variability in perennial plants and their implications for climate change risks

Seed production in perennial plants often shows strong year-to-year variation, a phenomenon known as masting. Masting is typically adaptive and driven by weather cues that synchronize reproduction by promoting or suppressing flowering and seed set. These cues, involving temperature, precipitation, and drought, differ across species and regions, yet a global synthesis is needed. Understanding such patterns is crucial, as reproductive responses to climate interact with resource constraints to shape plant fitness under climate change. Here, we analyze climate-reproduction relationships in 746 populations of 331 species worldwide using moving-window methods. We find that temperature is the dominant cue for reproductive investment, though its influence is weaker in the wettest and driest climates. In temperate and boreal regions, reproduction is most often linked to warmer conditions, whereas in the tropics, reproduction is disproportionately linked to cooler temperatures. Therefore, we expect rising temperatures to increase reproductive failures in the tropics, but to reduce interannual variability in temperate and boreal zones as favorable cues become more frequent. These results confirm long-standing theoretical predictions and provide a global framework for evaluating climate change risks to mast seeding.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2024

Evolutionary ecology of masting: Mechanisms, models, and climate change

Many perennial plants show mast seeding, characterized by synchronous and highly variable reproduction across years. We propose a general model of masting, integrating proximate factors (environmental variation, weather cues, and resource budgets) with ultimate drivers (predator satiation and pollination efficiency). This general model shows how the relationships between masting and weather shape the diverse responses of species to climate warming, ranging from no change to lower interannual variation or reproductive failure. The role of environmental prediction as a masting driver is being reassessed; future studies need to estimate prediction accuracy and the benefits acquired. Since reproduction is central to plant adaptation to climate change, understanding how masting adapts to shifting environmental conditions is now a central question.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2022

MASTREE+: Time-series of plant reproductive effort from six continents

Significant gaps remain in understanding the response of plant reproduction to environmental change. This is partly because measuring reproduction in long-lived plants requires direct observation over many years and such datasets have rarely been made publicly available. Here we introduce MASTREE+, a data set that collates reproductive time-series data from across the globe and makes these data freely available to the community. MASTREE+ includes 73,828 georeferenced observations of annual reproduction (e.g. seed and fruit counts) in perennial plant populations worldwide. These observations consist of 5971 population-level time-series from 974 species in 66 countries. The mean and median time-series length is 12.4 and 10 years respectively, and the data set includes 1122 series that extend over at least two decades (≥20 years of observations). For a subset of well-studied species, MASTREE+ includes extensive replication of time-series across geographical and climatic gradients. Here we describe the open-access data set, available as a.csv file, and we introduce an associated web-based app for data exploration. MASTREE+ will provide the basis for improved understanding of the response of long-lived plant reproduction to environmental change. Additionally, MASTREE+ will enable investigation of the ecology and evolution of reproductive strategies in perennial plants, and the role of plant reproduction as a driver of ecosystem dynamics.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2022

Budburst timing of valley oaks at Hastings Reservation, central coastal California

We studied the timing of budburst of valley oak ( Quercus lobata Née) at Hastings Reservation, central coastal California. Similar to other taxa, budburst was advanced by warmer temperatures. Over the 30-year study period, however, there were no significant trends in either air temperature or the timing of budburst, except during the 2014–2016 drought, during which the earliest budburst dates were advanced. Several individual tree characteristics correlated with budburst timing, including access to ground water, soil available phosphorus, and elevation, the effects of which were in turn correlated with winter microclimatic conditions of individual trees. Budburst timing was significantly related to both subsequent acorn production and radial growth; trees leafing out on or near the population mean for the year experienced greater radial growth and produced larger acorn crops than trees leafing out earlier or later than the mean. Differences in acorn production were due to both differences in phenology among trees and plasticity in the phenology of individual trees across years, while differences in radial growth were primarily due to plasticity in individual tree phenology. Valley oak phenology exhibits considerable variability; the extent to which this plasticity will help this keystone California species adapt to future climate change remains to be seen.

California↗

USGS2021

The ecology and evolution of synchronized reproduction in long-lived plants

Populations of many long-lived plants exhibit spatially synchronized seed production that varies extensively over time, so that seed production in some years is much higher than on average, while in others, it is much lower or absent. This phenomenon termed masting or mast seeding has important consequences for plant reproductive success, ecosystem dynamics and plant–human interactions. Inspired by recent advances in the field, this special issue presents a series of articles that advance the current understanding of the ecology and evolution of masting. To provide a broad overview, we reflect on the state-of-the-art of masting research in terms of underlying proximate mechanisms, ontogeny, adaptations, phylogeny and applications to conservation. While the mechanistic drivers and fitness consequences of masting have received most attention, the evolutionary history, ontogenetic trajectory and applications to plant–human interactions are poorly understood. With increased availability of long-term datasets across broader geographical and taxonomic scales, as well as advances in molecular approaches, we expect that many mysteries of masting will be solved soon. The increased understanding of this global phenomenon will provide the foundation for predictive modelling of seed crops, which will improve our ability to manage forests and agricultural fruit and nut crops in the Anthropocene.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

USGS2021

Understanding mast seeding for conservation and land management

Masting, the intermittent and synchronous production of large seed crops, can have profound consequences for plant populations and the food webs that are built on their seeds. For centuries, people have recorded mast crops because of their importance in managing wildlife populations. In the past 30 years, we have begun to recognize the importance of masting in conserving and managing many other aspects of the environment: promoting the regeneration of forests following fire or other disturbance, conserving rare plants, conscientiously developing the use of edible seeds as non-timber forest products, coping with the consequences of extinctions on seed dispersal, reducing the impacts of plant invasions with biological control, suppressing zoonotic diseases and preventing depredation of endemic fauna. We summarize current instances and future possibilities of a broad set of applications of masting. By exploring in detail several case studies, we develop new perspectives on how solutions to pressing conservation and land management problems may benefit by better understanding the dynamics of seed production. A lesson common to these examples is that masting can be used to time management, and often, to do this effectively, we need models that explicitly forecast masting and the dynamics of seed-eating animals into the near-term future.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

USGS2019

From theory to experiments for testing the proximate mechanisms of mast seeding: An agenda for an experimental ecology

Highly variable and synchronised production of seeds by plant populations is called masting and is implicated in many important ecological processes, but how it arises remains poorly understood. The lack of experimental studies prevents underlying mechanisms from being explicitly tested, and thereby precludes meaningful predictions on the consequences of changing environments for plant reproductive patterns and global vegetation dynamics. Here we review the most relevant hypothetical drivers of masting and outline a research agenda that takes the biology of masting from a largely observational field of ecology to one rooted in mechanistic understanding. We divide the experimental framework into three main processes: resource dynamics, pollen limitation, and genetic and hormonal regulation, and illustrate how specific predictions about proximate mechanisms can be tested, highlighting the few successful experiments as examples. We envision that the experiments we outline will deliver new insights into how and why masting patterns might respond to a changing environment.

Ecology Letters↗

USGS2017

Oak habitat recovery on California's largest islands: Scenarios for the role of corvid seed dispersal

Seed dispersal by birds is central to the passive restoration of many tree communities. Reintroduction of extinct seed dispersers can therefore restore degraded forests and woodlands. To test this, we constructed a spatially explicit simulation model, parameterized with field data, to consider the effect of different seed dispersal scenarios on the extent of oak populations. We applied the model to two islands in California's Channel Islands National Park (USA), one of which has lost a key seed disperser. We used an ensemble modelling approach to simulate island scrub oak ( Quercus pacifica ) demography. The model was developed and trained to recreate known population changes over a 20-year period on 250-km 2 Santa Cruz Island, and incorporated acorn dispersal by island scrub-jays ( Aphelocoma insularis ), deer mice ( Peromyscus maniculatus ) and gravity, as well as seed predation. We applied the trained model to 215-km 2 Santa Rosa Island to examine how reintroducing island scrub-jays would affect the rate and pattern of oak population expansion. Oak habitat on Santa Rosa Island has been greatly reduced from its historical extent due to past grazing by introduced ungulates, the last of which were removed by 2011. Our simulation model predicts that a seed dispersal scenario including island scrub-jays would increase the extent of the island scrub oak population on Santa Rosa Island by 281% over 100 years, and by 544% over 200 years. Scenarios without jays would result in little expansion. Simulated long-distance seed dispersal by jays also facilitates establishment of discontinuous patches of oaks, and increases their elevational distribution. Synthesis and applications . Scenario planning provides powerful decision support for conservation managers. We used ensemble modelling of plant demographic and seed dispersal processes to investigate whether the reintroduction of seed dispersers could provide cost-effective means of achieving broader ecosystem restoration goals on California's second-largest island. The simulation model, extensively parameterized with field data, suggests that re-establishing the mutualism with seed-hoarding jays would accelerate the expansion of island scrub oak, which could benefit myriad species of conservation concern.

California↗