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Maoya Bassiouni

Publications and source records attributed to Maoya Bassiouni.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

Drought stress and hurricane defoliation influence mountain clouds and moisture recycling in a tropical forest

Mountain ranges generate clouds, precipitation, and perennial streamflow for water supplies, but the role of forest cover in mountain hydrometeorology and cloud formation is not well understood. In the Luquillo Experimental Forest of Puerto Rico, mountains are immersed in clouds nightly, providing a steady precipitation source to support the tropical forest ecosystems and human uses. A severe drought in 2015 and the removal of forest canopy (defoliation) by Hurricane Maria in 2017 created natural experiments to examine interactions between the living forest and hydroclimatic processes. These unprecedented land-based observations over 4.5 y revealed that the orographic cloud system was highly responsive to local land-surface moisture and energy balances moderated by the forest. Cloud layer thickness and immersion frequency on the mountain slope correlated with antecedent rainfall, linking recycled terrestrial moisture to the formation of mountain clouds; and cloud-base altitude rose during drought stress and posthurricane defoliation. Changes in diurnal cycles of temperature and vapor-pressure deficit and an increase in sensible versus latent heat flux quantified local meteorological response to forest disturbances. Temperature and water vapor anomalies along the mountain slope persisted for at least 12 mo posthurricane, showing that understory recovery did not replace intact forest canopy function. In many similar settings around the world, prolonged drought, increasing temperatures, and deforestation could affect orographic cloud precipitation and the humans and ecosystems that depend on it.

Puerto Rico

A method for quantifying cloud immersion in a tropical mountain forest using time-lapse photography

Quantifying the frequency, duration, and elevation range of fog or cloud immersion is essential to estimate cloud water deposition in water budgets and to understand the ecohydrology of cloud forests. The goal of this study was to develop a low-cost and high spatial-coverage method to detect occurrence of cloud immersion within a mountain cloud forest by using time-lapse photography. Trail cameras and temperature/relative humidity sensors were deployed at five sites covering the elevation range from the assumed lifting condensation level to the mountain peaks in the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico. Cloud-sensitive image characteristics (contrast, the coefficient of variation and the entropy of pixel luminance, and image colorfulness) were used with a k -means clustering approach to accurately detect cloud-immersed conditions in a time series of images from March 2014 to May 2016. Images provided hydrologically meaningful cloud-immersion information while temperature-relative humidity data were used to refine the image analysis using dew point information and provided temperature gradients along the elevation transect. Validation of the image processing method with human-judgment based classification generally indicated greater than 90% accuracy. Cloud-immersion frequency averaged 80% at sites above 900 m during nighttime hours and 49% during daytime hours, and was consistent with diurnal patterns of cloud immersion measured in a previous study. Results for the 617 m site demonstrated that cloud immersion in the Luquillo Mountains rarely occurs at the previously-reported cloud base elevation of about 600 m (11% during nighttime hours and 5% during daytime hours). The framework presented in this paper will be used to monitor at a low cost and high spatial resolution the long-term variability of cloud-immersion patterns in the Luquillo Mountains, and can be applied to ecohydrology research at other cloud-forest sites or in coastal ecosystems with advective sea fog.

El Yunque National Forest, Puerto Rico

Panel regressions to estimate low-flow response to rainfall variability in ungaged basins

Multicollinearity and omitted-variable bias are major limitations to developing multiple linear regression models to estimate streamflow characteristics in ungaged areas and varying rainfall conditions. Panel regression is used to overcome limitations of traditional regression methods, and obtain reliable model coefficients, in particular to understand the elasticity of streamflow to rainfall. Using annual rainfall and selected basin characteristics at 86 gaged streams in the Hawaiian Islands, regional regression models for three stream classes were developed to estimate the annual low-flow duration discharges. Three panel-regression structures (random effects, fixed effects, and pooled) were compared to traditional regression methods, in which space is substituted for time. Results indicated that panel regression generally was able to reproduce the temporal behavior of streamflow and reduce the standard errors of model coefficients compared to traditional regression, even for models in which the unobserved heterogeneity between streams is significant and the variance inflation factor for rainfall is much greater than 10. This is because both spatial and temporal variability were better characterized in panel regression. In a case study, regional rainfall elasticities estimated from panel regressions were applied to ungaged basins on Maui, using available rainfall projections to estimate plausible changes in surface-water availability and usable stream habitat for native species. The presented panel-regression framework is shown to offer benefits over existing traditional hydrologic regression methods for developing robust regional relations to investigate streamflow response in a changing climate.

Hawaii

Volcanic aquifers of Hawai‘i—Hydrogeology, water budgets, and conceptual models

Hawai‘i’s aquifers have limited capacity to store fresh groundwater because each island is small and surrounded by saltwater. Saltwater also underlies much of the fresh groundwater. Fresh groundwater resources are, therefore, particularly vulnerable to human activity, short-term climate cycles, and long-term climate change. Availability of fresh groundwater for human use is constrained by the degree to which the impacts of withdrawal—such as lowering of the water table, saltwater intrusion, and reduction in the natural discharge to springs, streams, wetlands, and submarine seeps—are deemed acceptable. This report describes the hydrogeologic framework, groundwater budgets (inflows and outflows), conceptual models of groundwater occurrence and movement, and the factors limiting groundwater availability for the largest and most populated of the Hawaiian Islands—Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, Maui, and Hawai‘i Island. The bulk of each of Hawai‘i’s islands is built of many thin lava flows erupted from shield volcanoes; the great piles of lava flows form highly permeable aquifers. In some areas, low-permeability dikes cutting across the lava flows, or low-permeability ash and soil horizons interlayered with the lava flows, can substantially alter groundwater flow. On some islands, sedimentary rocks form thick semiconfining coastal-plain deposits, locally known as caprock, that impede natural groundwater discharge to the ocean. In some regions, thick lava flows that ponded in preexisting depressions form aquifers that are much less permeable than aquifers formed by thin lava flows. Fresh groundwater inflow to Hawai‘i’s aquifers comes from recharge. For predevelopment conditions (1870), estimates of groundwater recharge from this study are 871, 675, 1,279, and 5,291 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) for Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, Maui, and Hawai‘i Island, respectively. Estimates of recharge for recent conditions (2010 land cover and 1978–2007 rainfall for Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, and Maui; 2008 land cover and 1916–1983 rainfall for Hawai‘i Island) are 875, 660, 1,308, and 6,595 Mgal/d for Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, Maui, and Hawai‘i Island, respectively. Recent recharge values differ from predevelopment recharge values by only a few percent for all islands except Hawai‘i Island, where changes in forest cover affected recharge. Spatial distribution of recharge mimics the orographic rainfall pattern—recharge is high on windward slopes and mountain peaks below the top of the trade-wind inversion. Human activity such as irrigation also contributes to recharge in some areas. Outflows from Hawai‘i’s aquifers include withdrawals from wells and natural groundwater discharge to springs, streams, wetlands, and submarine seeps. Under predevelopment conditions, groundwater withdrawal is assumed to be negligible and natural groundwater discharge probably was equal, or close, to recharge. Under recent conditions (2000–2010), groundwater withdrawal averaged 19, 209, 104, and 103 Mgal/d on Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, Maui, and Hawai‘i Island, respectively. If recent withdrawal and recharge rates are maintained until steady state is achieved, natural groundwater discharge will be reduced by an amount equal to the withdrawal rate. Total recent withdrawal for the four islands is only about 5 percent of total recharge, but about half of the withdrawal comes from O‘ahu, whereas O‘ahu receives only 7 percent of the total recharge. Effects of high withdrawals on O‘ahu cannot be mitigated by the lower withdrawals on other islands because no freshwater flows between islands. Even within an island, high withdrawals from one area cannot be completely mitigated by recharge in another area. Water-level, saltwater/freshwater-transition-zone, spring, and stream base-flow data indicate an overall reduction in storage for most areas where groundwater has been developed. Groundwater occurrence and movement in Hawai‘i’s volcanic aquifers can be described in terms of four conceptual models: (1) fresh groundwater lenses in high-permeability lava-flow aquifers, (2) aquifers with groundwater impounded by dikes, (3) thickly saturated low-permeability aquifers, and (4) perched aquifers. In Hawai‘i, most fresh groundwater withdrawn for human use comes from freshwater lenses in the dike-free high-permeability lava-flow aquifers where the principal limiting factor to groundwater availability is saltwater intrusion, but impacts of reduced natural groundwater discharge may also limit availability. Dike-impounded groundwater is common near the center of Hawaiian shield volcanoes, where water moves and is stored in permeable lava flows between the dikes; groundwater availability in these aquifers is primarily limited by storage depletion and reduction of flow to adjacent aquifers and natural groundwater discharge. Thickly saturated low-permeability aquifers have been identified on Kaua‘i and Maui; groundwater availability is primarily limited by streamflow depletion and water-table decline. Perched groundwater is postulated to exist in some areas of Hawai‘i, but store much less water than other modes ofgroundwater occurrence. Limits on groundwater availability in perched aquifers include the potential of reducing inflow to other groundwater settings and reducing natural discharge and stream seepage. Some groundwater bodies in Hawai‘i are enigmatic; consequences of groundwater development in these bodies and their relation to groundwater availability are not completely understood.

Hawai'i

Spatially distributed groundwater recharge for 2010 land cover estimated using a water-budget model for the Island of O‘ahu, Hawai‘i

Owing mainly to projected population growth, demand for freshwater on the Island of Oʻahu is expected to increase by about 26 percent between 2010 and 2030, according to the City and County of Honolulu. Estimates of groundwater recharge are needed to evaluate the availability of fresh groundwater. For this study, a water-budget model with a daily computation interval was developed and used to estimate the spatial distribution of recharge on Oʻahu for average climate conditions (1978–2007 rainfall and 2010 land cover) and for drought conditions (1998–2002 rainfall and 2010 land cover). For average climate conditions, mean annual recharge for Oʻahu is about 660 million gallons per day, or about 36 percent of precipitation (rainfall and fog interception). Recharge for average climate conditions is about 34 percent of total water inflow, which consists of precipitation, irrigation, septic leachate, water-main leakage, and seepage from reservoirs and cesspools. Recharge is high along the crest of the Koʻolau Range, reaching as much as about 180 inches per year in the north-central part of the range. Recharge is much lower outside of the mountainous areas of the island, commonly less than 5 inches per year in unirrigated areas. The island-wide estimate of groundwater recharge for average climate conditions from this study is within 1 percent of the recharge estimate used in the 2008 State of Hawaiʻi Water Resource Protection Plan, which divides the Island of Oʻahu into 23 aquifer systems for groundwater management purposes. To facilitate direct comparisons with this study, these 23 aquifer systems were consolidated into 21 aquifer systems. Recharge estimates from this study are higher for 12 of the aquifer-system areas and lower for 9. Differences in mean rainfall distribution and the inclusion of irrigation in this study are the primary reasons for discrepancies in recharge estimates between this study and the 2008 Hawaiʻi Water Resources Protection Plan. For drought conditions, mean annual recharge for Oʻahu is about 417 million gallons per day, which is about 37 percent less than recharge for average climate conditions. For individual aquifer-system areas, recharge for drought conditions is about 25 to 70 percent less than recharge for average climate conditions.

Hawai'i

Spatially distributed groundwater recharge estimated using a water-budget model for the Island of Maui, Hawai`i, 1978–2007

Demand for freshwater on the Island of Maui is expected to grow. To evaluate the availability of fresh groundwater, estimates of groundwater recharge are needed. A water-budget model with a daily computation interval was developed and used to estimate the spatial distribution of recharge on Maui for average climate conditions (1978–2007 rainfall and 2010 land cover) and for drought conditions (1998–2002 rainfall and 2010 land cover). For average climate conditions, mean annual recharge for Maui is about 1,309 million gallons per day, or about 44 percent of precipitation (rainfall and fog interception). Recharge for average climate conditions is about 39 percent of total water inflow consisting of precipitation, irrigation, septic leachate, and seepage from reservoirs and cesspools. Most recharge occurs on the wet, windward slopes of Haleakalā and on the wet, uplands of West Maui Mountain. Dry, coastal areas generally have low recharge. In the dry isthmus, however, irrigated fields have greater recharge than nearby unirrigated areas. For drought conditions, mean annual recharge for Maui is about 1,010 million gallons per day, which is 23 percent less than recharge for average climate conditions. For individual aquifer-system areas used for groundwater management, recharge for drought conditions is about 8 to 51 percent less than recharge for average climate conditions. The spatial distribution of rainfall is the primary factor determining spatially distributed recharge estimates for most areas on Maui. In wet areas, recharge estimates are also sensitive to water-budget parameters that are related to runoff, fog interception, and forest-canopy evaporation. In dry areas, recharge estimates are most sensitive to irrigated crop areas and parameters related to evapotranspiration.

Hawai'i

Trends and shifts in streamflow in Hawaii, 1913-2008

This study addresses a need to document changes in streamflow and base flow (groundwater discharge to streams) in Hawai'i during the past century. Statistically significant long-term (1913-2008) downward trends were detected (using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test) in low-streamflow and base-flow records. These long-term downward trends are likely related to a statistically significant downward shift around 1943 detected (using the nonparametric Pettitt test) in index records of streamflow and base flow. The downward shift corresponds to a decrease of 22% in median streamflow and a decrease of 23% in median base flow between the periods 1913-1943 and 1943-2008. The shift coincides with other local and regional factors, including a change from a positive to a negative phase in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, shifts in the direction of the trade winds over Hawai'i, and a reforestation programme. The detected shift and long-term trends reflect region-wide changes in climatic and land-cover factors. A weak pattern of downward trends in base flows during the period 1943-2008 may indicate a continued decrease in base flows after the 1943 shift. Downward trends were detected more commonly in base-flow records than in high-streamflow, peak-flow, and rainfall records. The decrease in base flow is likely related to a decrease in groundwater storage and recharge and therefore is a valuable indicator of decreasing water availability and watershed vulnerability to hydrologic changes. Whether the downward trends will continue is largely uncertain given the uncertainty in climate-change projections and watershed responses to changes.

Hawai'i