Geology topics

M.S. Mitchell

Publications and source records attributed to M.S. Mitchell.

24 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2006

Spatio-temporal availability of soft mast in clearcuts in the Southern Appalachians

Soft mast is an important resource for many wild populations in the Southern Appalachians, yet the way clear-cutting affects availability of soft mast though time is not fully understood. We tested a theoretical model of temporal availability of soft mast in clearcuts using empirical data on percent cover and berry production of Gaylussacia, Vaccinium, and Rubus spp. plants in 100 stands that were clearcut (0-122 years old) in the Southern Appalachian Mountains. We modeled the relationship between soft mast availability and stand age, evaluated the effects of topography and forest type on soft mast, developed statistical models for predicting the spatio-temporal distribution of soft mast, and tested the hypothesis that percent cover of berry plants and berry production provided similar information about soft mast availability. We found temporal dynamics explained berry production better than it predicted percent plant cover, whereas topographic variables influenced percent plant cover more than they influenced berry production. Berry production and percent plant cover were highest in ???2-9-year-old stands. Percent plant cover was lowest in 10-69-year-old stands and intermediate in 70+-year-old stands. Three of our spatio-temporal models performed well during model testing and they were not biased by the training data, indicating the inferences about spatio-temporal availability of soft mast extended beyond our sample data. The methods we used to estimate the distribution of soft mast may be useful for modeling distributions of other resources. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

USGS2005

Long-term analysis of survival, fertility, and population growth rate of black bears in North Carolina

We estimated survival, fertility, and realized and asymptotic population growth rates from 1981 to 2002 for a protected population of black bears (Ursus americanus) in the southern Appalachian Mountains. We used Akaike's information criterion to assess the time interval for averaging observations that was best for estimating vital rates for our study, given our yearly sample sizes. The temporal symmetry approach allowed us to directly assess population growth and to address all losses and gains to the population by using only capture data, offering an alternative to the logistically intensive collection of reproductive data. Models that averaged survival and fertility across 5- and 7-year time intervals were best supported by our data. Studies of black bear populations with annual sample sizes similar to ours should be of at least 5 years in duration to estimate vital rates reliably, and at least 10 years in duration to evaluate changes in population growth rate (??). We also hypothesized that survival would not track changes in ?? because ?? is influenced by both survival and fertility. The 5-year model supported our hypothesis, but the 7-year model did not. Where long-term dynamics of large, relatively stable bear populations are of interest, monitoring survival is likely to be sufficient for evaluating trends in ??. For rapidly changing, small populations, however, failure to incorporate fertility into assessments of ?? could be misleading. ?? 2005 American Society of Mammalogists.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

USGS2005

Effects of trapping with bait on bait-station indices to black bear abundance

Indices of relative abundance allow managers and researchers to examine changes in population size over time or compare relative population sizes in different areas. In the Pisgah Bear Sanctuary, bait-station surveys were conducted in most years from 1983 to 2000 to follow trends over time in the black bear (Ursus americanus) population. Baited bear trapping also took place in the sanctuary during those years, and some trap lines coincided with bait-station lines. Because the same baits were used for both trapping and bait station lines, we hypothesized that visitation rates of bears to bait stations established in proximity to baited trap lines would differ from rates at bait stations that were not associated with baited trap lines. We modeled probability of bait stations being visited by bears on trapped and untrapped lines to estimate the effect baited trapping had on visitation rates. We found that population trends inferred from bait-station visits in areas that also were trapped with bait were biased high and that bias increased over time. Bears may have become habituated to the bait on trap lines and incorporated it as a regular food source. Bait-station indices should not be conducted near research sites that employ similar bait when both produce a tangible reward for the animals.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2002

Test of a habitat suitability index for black bears in the southern Appalachians

We present a habitat suitability index (HSI) model for black bears (Ursus americanus) living in the southern Appalachians that was developed a priori from the literature, then tested using location and home range data collected in the Pisgah Bear Sanctuary, North Carolina, over a 12-year period. The HSI was developed and initially tested using habitat and bear data collected over 2 years in the sanctuary. We increased number of habitat sampling sites, included data collected in areas affected by timber harvest, used more recent Geographic Information System (GIS) technology to create a more accurate depiction of the HSI for the sanctuary, evaluated effects of input variability on HSI values, and duplicated the original tests using more data. We found that the HSI predicted habitat selection by bears on population and individual levels and the distribution of collared bears were positively correlated with HSI values. We found a stronger relationship between habitat selection by bears and a second-generation HSI. We evaluated our model with criteria suggested by Roloff and Kernohan (1999) for evaluating HSI model reliability and concluded that our model was reliable and robust. The model's strength is that it was developed as an a priori hypothesis directly modeling the relationship between critical resources and fitness of bears and tested with independent data. We present the HSI spatially as a continuous fitness surface where potential contribution of habitat to the fitness of a bear is depicted at each point in space.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2000

Wildlife tradeoffs based on landscape models of habitat preference

Wildlife tradeoffs based on landscape models of habitat preference were presented. Multiscale logistic regression models were used and based on these models a spatial optimization technique was utilized to generate optimal maps. The tradeoffs were analyzed by gradually increasing the weighting on a single species in the objective function over a series of simulations. Results indicated that efficiency of habitat management for species diversity could be maximized for small landscapes by incorporating spatial context.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2000

Wildlife tradeoffs based on landscape models of habitat

It is becoming increasingly clear that the spatial structure of landscapes affects the habitat choices and abundance of wildlife. In contrast to wildlife management based on preservation of critical habitat features such as nest sites on a beach or mast trees, it has not been obvious how to incorporate spatial structure into management plans. We present techniques to accomplish this goal. We used multiscale logistic regression models developed previously for neotropical migrant bird species habitat use in South Carolina (USA) as a basis for these techniques. Based on these models we used a spatial optimization technique to generate optimal maps (probability of occurrence, P = 1.0) for each of seven species. To emulate management of a forest for maximum species diversity, we defined the objective function of the algorithm as the sum of probabilities over the seven species, resulting in a complex map that allowed all seven species to coexist. The map that allowed for coexistence is not obvious, must be computed algorithmically, and would be difficult to realize using rules of thumb for habitat management. To assess how management of a forest for a single species of interest might affect other species, we analyzed tradeoffs by gradually increasing the weighting on a single species in the objective function over a series of simulations. We found that as habitat was increasingly modified to favor that species, the probability of presence for two of the other species was driven to zero. This shows that whereas it is not possible to simultaneously maximize the likelihood of presence for multiple species with divergent habitat preferences, compromise solutions are possible at less than maximal likelihood in many cases. Our approach suggests that efficiency of habitat management for species diversity can by maximized for even small landscapes by incorporating spatial context. The methods we present are suitable for wildlife management, endangered species conservation, and nature reserve design.

Conference Paper↗