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M. Lisowski

Publications and source records attributed to M. Lisowski.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2001

Constraints on dike propagation from continuous GPS measurements

The January 1997 East Rift Zone eruption on Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, occurred within a network of continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers. The GPS measurements reveal the temporal history of deformation during dike intrusion, beginning ∼8 hours prior to the onset of the eruption. The dike volume as a function of time, estimated from the GPS data using elastic Green's functions for a homogeneous half-space, shows that only two thirds of the final dike volume accumulated prior to the eruption and the rate of volume change decreased with time. These observations are inconsistent with simple models of dike propagation, which predict accelerating dike volume up to the time of the eruption and little or no change thereafter. Deflationary tilt changes at Kilauea summit mirror the inferred dike volume history, suggesting that the rate of dike propagation is limited by flow of magma into the dike. A simple, lumped parameter model of a coupled dike magma chamber system shows that the tendency for a dike to end in an eruption (rather than intrusion) is favored by high initial dike pressures, compressional stress states, large, compressible magma reservoirs, and highly conductive conduits linking the dike and source reservoirs. Comparison of model predictions to the observed dike volume history, the ratio of erupted to intruded magma, and the deflationary history of the summit magma chamber suggest that most of the magma supplied to the growing dike came from sources near to the eruption through highly conductive conduits. Interpretation is complicated by the presence of multiple source reservoirs, magma vesiculation and cooling, as well as spatial variations in dike-normal stress. Reinflation of the summit magma chamber following the eruption was measured by GPS and accompanied a rise in the level of the Pu'u O'o lava lake. For a spheroidal chamber these data imply a summit magma chamber volume of ∼20 km 3 , consistent with recent estimates from seismic tomography. Continuous deformation measurements can be used to image the spatiotemporal evolution of propagating dikes and to reveal quantitative information about the volcanic plumbing systems.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2001

Volcano monitoring using the Global Positioning System: Filtering strategies

Permanent Global Positioning System (GPS) networks are routinely used for producing improved orbits and monitoring secular tectonic deformation. For these applications, data are transferred to an analysis center each day and routinely processed in 24-hour segments. To use GPS for monitoring volcanic events, which may last only a few hours, real-time or near real-time data processing and subdaily position estimates are valuable. Strategies have been researched for obtaining station coordinates every 15 min using a Kalman filter; these strategies have been tested on data collected by a GPS network on Kilauea Volcano. Data from this network are tracked continuously, recorded every 30 s, and telemetered hourly to the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. A white noise model is heavily impacted by data outages and poor satellite geometry, but a properly constrained random walk model fits the data well. Using a borehole tiltmeter at Kilauea's summit as ground-truth, solutions using different random walk constraints were compared. This study indicates that signals on the order of 5 mm/h are resolvable using a random walk standard deviation of 0.45 cm/√h. Values lower than this suppress small signals, and values greater than this have significantly higher noise at periods of 1–6 hours.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2000

Strain accumulation along the Cascadia subduction zone

We combine triangulation, trilateration, and GPS observations to determine horizontal strain rates along the Cascadia subduction zone from Cape Mendocino to the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Shear-strain rates are significantly greater than zero (95% confidence) in all forearc regions (26-167 nanoradians/yr), and are not significant in the arc and backarc regions. The deformation is primarily uniaxial contraction nearly parallel to Juan de Fuca-North America plate convergence (N55??-80??E). The strain rates are consistent with an elastic dislocation model for interseismic slip with a shallow 100-km wide locked zone and a deeper 75-km transition zone along the entire megathrust, except along the central Oregon coast where relatively lower strain rates are consistent with 30-40 km wide locked and transition zones.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2000

January 30, 1997 eruptive event on Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii, as monitored by continuous GPS

A continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) network on Kilauea Volcano captured the most recent fissure eruption in Kilauea's East Rift Zone (ERZ) in unprecedented spatial and temporal detail. The short eruption drained the lava pond at Pu'u O' o, leading to a two month long pause in its on-going eruption. Models of the GPS data indicate that the intrusion's bottom edge extended to only 2.4 km. Continuous GPS data reveal rift opening 8 hours prior to the eruption. Absence of precursory summit inflation rules out magma storage overpressurization as the eruption's cause. We infer that stresses in the shallow rift created by the continued deep rift dilation and slip on the south flank decollement caused the rift intrusion.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS1998

Viscoelastic coupling model of the San Andreas fault along the Big Bend, southern California

The big bend segment of the San Andreas fault is the 300-km-long segment in southern California that strikes about N65°W, roughly 25° counterclockwise from the local tangent to the small circle about the Pacific-North America pole of rotation. The broad distribution of deformation of trilateration networks along this segment implies a locking depth of at least 25 km as interpreted by the conventional model of strain accumulation (continuous slip on the fault below the locking depth at the rate of relative plate motion), whereas the observed seismicity and laboratory data on fault strength suggest that the locking depth should be no greater than 10 to 15 km. The discrepancy is explained by the viscoelastic coupling model which accounts for the viscoelastic response of the lower crust. Thus the broad distribution of deformation observed across the big bend segment can be largely associated with the San Andreas fault itself, not subsidiary faults distributed throughout the region. The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities [1995] in using geodetic data to estimate the seismic risk in southern California has assumed that strain accumulated off the San Andreas fault is released by earthquakes located off the San Andreas fault. Thus they count the San Andreas contribution to total seismic moment accumulation more than once, leading to an overestimate of the seismicity for magnitude 6 and greater earthquakes in their Type C zones.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1997

Postseismic strain following the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake from GPS and leveling measurements

Postseismic deformation in the 5 years following the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake has been measured with the Global Positioning System and precise leveling. Postearthquake velocities at distances greater than ∼20 km from the coseismic rupture are not significantly different from those observed in the 20 years prior to the earthquake. However, velocities at stations within ∼20 km of the rupture exceed preearthquake rates and exhibit unanticipated contraction normal to the strike of the San Andreas fault system. A combination of forward modeling and nonlinear optimization suggests that the observed postseismic deformations were caused by aseismic oblique reverse slip averaging 2.9 cm/yr on the San Andreas fault and/or the Loma Prieta rupture zone and 2.4 cm/yr reverse slip along a buried fault within the Foothills thrust belt. The best fitting sources of postseismic deformation are all located at depths of less than 15 km. We find no evidence for accelerated flow or shear below the Loma Prieta rupture in the first 5 years following the earthquake. The inferred postseismic slip is likely to have been caused by the coseismic stress change updip of the 1989 rupture.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1997

Resolution of fault slip along the 470-km-long rupture of the great 1906 San Francisco earthquake and its implications

Data from all available triangulation networks affected by the 1906 earthquake have been combined to assess the trade-off between slip resolution and its uncertainty and to construct a conservative image of coseismic slip along the rupture. Because of varying network aperture and station density, slip resolution is very uneven. Although slip is determined within uncertainties of ??1.0 m along 60% of the fault, constraints are poor on the remaining, mostly offshore portions of the rupture. Slip decreases from maxima of 8.6 and 7.5 m at Shelter Cove and Tomales Bay to 4.5 m near Mount Tamalpais and 2.7 m at Loma Prieta. The geodetically derived slip distribution is in poor agreement with estimates based on analysis of S wave seismograms, probably because these waves register only 20-30% of the total seismic moment obtained from longer-period surface waves. Consideration of a range of fault geometries for 1906 slip near Loma Prieta indicates right-lateral motions lie between 2.3 and 3.1 m. These values are considerably greater than the 1.5 m of measured surface slip on which several assessments of high earthquake hazard for this fault segment were based. This factor, along with the absence of 1989 slippage where 1906 surface slip was used to make the forecasts, casts doubt on some claims of success in predicting the 1989 M = 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1997

Inflation of Long Valley caldera, California, Basin and Range strain, and possible Mono Craters dike opening from 1990-94 GPS surveys

Five years of annual Global Positioning System (GPS) surveys of a network centered on Long Valley, California, constrain displacement rates for these stations relative to a central station in the network. These observations are consistent with recent models of resurgent dome inflation in Long Valley (Langbein et al., 1995) and have sufficient signal to detect the presence of Basin and Range strain in the Long Valley region. The data also allow for the possibility of dike inflation beneath the Mono Craters; dike intrusion is consistent with the Mono Craters' recent geologic history of ash eruptions, with seismic tomography, leveling data, and geologic studies of these volcanic domes and flows.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS1996

Observed discrepancy between geodolite and GPS distance measurements

Comparison of contemporaneous measurements of 84 distances in the range of 10 to 50 km by both Global Positioning System (GPS) and Geodolite (an electro-optical distance-measuring instrument) indicates that the Geodolite measurements are systematically longer by 0.283 ± 0.100 parts per million of the measured distance. Quoted uncertainty is 1 standard deviation. This amounts to 11.3 ± 4.0 mm at 40 km, which is near the maximum Geodolite range. The systematic difference is within the random uncertainty of an individual GPS-Geodolite comparison and was detected only from an analysis of a large number (84) of such comparisons. The source of the systematic difference has not been identified.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1996

The 1992 M=7 Cape Mendocino, California, earthquake: Coseismic deformation at the south end of the Cascadia megathrust

We invert geodetic measurements of coseismic surface displacements to determine a dislocation model for the April 25, 1992, M = 7 Cape Mendocino, California, earthquake. The orientation of the model slip vector, which nearly parallels North America-Juan de Fuca relative plate convergence, and the location and orientation of the model fault relative to the offshore Cascadia megathrust, suggest that the 1992 Cape Mendocino earthquake is the first well-recorded event to relieve strain associated with the Cascadia subduction zone. We use data from three geodetic techniques: (1) the horizontal and vertical displacements of 13 monuments surveyed with the Global Positioning System, corrected for observed horizontal interseismic strain accumulation, (2) 88 section-elevation differences between leveling monuments, and (3) the uplift of 12 coastal sites observed from the die-off of intertidal marine organisms. Maximum observed displacements are 0.4 m of horizontal movement and 1.5 m of uplift along the coast. We use Monte Carlo techniques to estimate an optimal uniform slip rectangular fault geometry and its uncertainties. The optimal model using all the data resolves 4.9 m of slip on a 14 by 15 km fault that dips 28° SE. The fault extends from 1.5 to 8.7 km in depth and the main-shock hypocenter is close to the downdip projection of the fault. The shallowly dipping fault plane is consistent with the observed aftershock locations, and the estimated geodetic moment is 3.1 × 10 19 N m, 70% of the seismic moment. Other models that exclude leveling data collected in 1935 and 1942 are more consistent with seismological estimates of the fault geometry. If the earthquake is characteristic for this segment, the estimated horizontal slip vector compared with plate convergence rates suggests a recurrence interval of 140 years, with a 95% confidence range of 100–670 years. The coseismic uplift occurred in a region that also has high Quaternary uplift rates determined from marine terrace studies. If repeated ruptures of this southernmost segment of the Cascadia megathrust are responsible for the Quaternary uplift, a comparison of the coseismic uplift with coastal uplift rates suggests a recurrence interval of 200–400 years. Thus comparing horizontal and vertical coseismic to long-term deformation suggests a recurrence interval of about 100–300 years for M = 7 events at the south end of the Cascadia megathrust.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1996

Crustal velocity field near the big bend of California's San Andreas fault

We use geodetic data spanning the 1920–1992 interval to estimate the horizontal velocity field near the big bend segment of California's San Andreas fault (SAF). More specifically, we estimate a horizontal velocity vector for each node of a two-dimensional grid that has a 15-min-by-15-min mesh and that extends between latitudes 34.0°N and 36.0°N and longitudes 117.5°W and 120.5°W. For this estimation process, we apply bilinear interpolation to transfer crustal deformation information from geodetic sites to the grid nodes. The data include over a half century of triangulation measurements, over two decades of repeated electronic distance measurements, a decade of repeated very long baseline interferometry measurements, and several years of Global Positioning System measurements. Magnitudes for our estimated velocity vectors have formal standard errors ranging from 0.7 to 6.8 mm/yr. Our derived velocity field shows that (1) relative motion associated with the SAF exceeds 30 mm/yr and is distributed on the Earth's surface across a band (>100 km wide) that is roughly centered on this fault; (2) when velocities are expressed relative to a fixed North America plate, the motion within our primary study region has a mean orientation of N44°W ± 2° and the surface trace of the SAF is congruent in shape to nearby contours of constant speed yet this trace is oriented between 5° and 10° counterclockwise relative to these contours; and (3) large strain rates (shear rates > 150 nrad/yr and/or areal dilatation rates < −150 nstr/yr) exist near the Garlock fault, near the White Wolf fault, and in the Ventura basin.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1994

Geodetic slip rate for the eastern California shear zone and the recurrence time of Mojave desert earthquakes

Where the San Andreas fault passes along the southwestern margin of the Mojave desert, it exhibits a large change in trend, and the deformation associated with the Pacific/North American plate boundary is distributed broadly over a complex shear zone. The importance of understanding the partitioning of strain across this region, especially to the east of the Mojave segment of the San Andreas in a region known as the eastern California shear zone (ECSZ), was highlighted by the occurrence (on 28 June 1992) of the magnitude 7.3 Landers earthquake in this zone. Here we use geodetic observations in the central Mojave desert to obtain new estimates for the rate and distribution of strain across a segment of the ECSZ, and to determine a coseismic strain drop of ~770 ??rad for the Landers earthquake. From these results we infer a strain energy recharge time of 3,500-5,000 yr for a Landers-type earthquake and a slip rate of ~12 mm yr-1 across the faults of the central Mojave. The latter estimate implies that a greater fraction of plate motion than heretofore inferred from geodetic data is accommodated across the ECSZ.

Nature↗
USGS1993

The Cape Mendocino, California, earthquakes of April 1992: Subduction at the triple junction

The 25 April 1992 magnitude 7.1 Cape Mendocino thrust earthquake demonstrated that the North America—Gorda plate boundary is seismogenic and illustrated hazards that could result from much larger earthquakes forecast for the Cascadia region. The shock occurred just north of the Mendocino Triple Junction and caused strong ground motion and moderate damage in the immediate area. Rupture initiated onshore at a depth of 10.5 kilometers and propagated up-dip and seaward. Slip on steep faults in the Gorda plate generated two magnitude 6.6 aftershocks on 26 April. The main shock did not produce surface rupture on land but caused coastal uplift and a tsunami. The emerging picture of seismicity and faulting at the triple junction suggests that the region is likely to continue experiencing significant seismicity.

California↗
USGS1991

Strain measurements and the potential for a great subduction earthquake off the coast of Washington

Geodetic measurements of deformation in northwestern Washington indicate that strain is accumulating at a rate close to that predicted by a model of the Cascadia subduction zone in which the plate interface underlying the continental slope and outer continental shelf is currently locked but the remainder of the interface slips continuously. Presumably this locked segment will eventually rupture in a great thrust earthquake with a down-dip extent greater than 100 kilometers.

Washington↗
USGS1986

Strain accumulation in the Shumagin and Yakataga seismic gaps, Alaska

Strain accumulation during the 1980-85 interval has been measured by means of trilateration surveys in the Shumagin and Yakataga seismic gaps, which are the two regions identified as the most likely sites for the next great thrust earthquakes along the Alaska-Aleutian arc. No significant strain accumulation was detected in the Shumagin gap, but experience at similar subduction zones and simple models of the subduction process suggest that a measurable amount of strain should have accumulated. The most likely explanation of the observation is that subduction mere is either aseismic or episodic. The strain accumulation measured in the Yakataga gap is consistent with that expected for the plate convergence rate, although the direction of maximum compression may suggest a somewhat more oblique convergence than expected.

Alaska↗
USGS1983

Strain accumulation along the San Andreas fault system east of San Francisco Bay, California

The occurrence of several large earthquakes to the east of San Francisco Bay during historical times, and present high levels of microseismicity, indicate that a significant part of the relative plate motion may be occurring east of San Francisco Bay. Furthermore, the Hayward fault is known to be slipping aseismically at the surface, and the Calaveras fault may be slipping aseismically also. These facts raise an important question: Is the observed creep rate accommodating all of the east bay deformation or is there a significant amount of strain accumulating along these faults? Several small survey networks (< 2 km diameter) located along the Hayward and Calaveras faults, have been measured occasionally since 1965. Recent observations of these and other networks have been made by the U.S. Geological Survey. These observations imply a surface slip rate on the Hayward fault at Fremont, Hayward, Berkeley, and Richmond of about 6 mm/yr. On the Calaveras fault, north of the Hayward-Calaveras fault junction, surface slip rates have been determined from only four data sets. Three of which give a rate of 3 mm/yr. The U.S. Geological Survey annually measures 32 longer lines (10–30 km) in the east bay. Observations of these lines extend back to 1977 for most and to 1970 for some of the lines. The observed creep rates and the data for the longer east-bay lines provide constraints on the amount and position of deeper slip on the Hayward and Calaveras faults. After correcting for line-length changes due to fault slip, we calculated the strain accumulation rate. The shear strain rate parallel to east bay faults is 0.07 ± 0.02 μstrain / yr , a rate well below that of other areas along the San Andreas fault system, suggesting that creep is relieving a large part of the strain in this area.

California↗
USGS1981

Strain on the San Andreas fault near Palmdale, California: Rapid, aseismic change

Frequently repeated strain measurements near Palmdale, California, during the period from 1971 through 1980 indicate that, in addition to a uniform accumulation of right-lateral shear strain (engineering shear, 0.35 microradian per year) across the San Andreas fault, a 1-microstrain contraction perpendicular to the fault that accumulated gradually during the interval 1974 through 1978 was aseismically released between February and November 1979. Subsequently (November 1979 to March 1980), about half of the contraction was recovered. This sequence of strain changes can be explained in terms of south-southwestward migration of a slip event consisting of the south-southwestward movement of the upper crust on a horizontal detachment surface at a depth of 10 to 30 kilometers. The large strain change in 1979 corresponds to the passage of the slip event beneath the San Andreas fault.

California↗