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M. Kery

Publications and source records attributed to M. Kery.

24 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2003

Effects of life-state on detectability in a demographic study of the terrestrial orchid Cleistes bifaria

1. Most plant demographic studies follow marked individuals in permanent plots. Plots tend to be small, so detectability is assumed to be one for every individual. However, detectability could be affected by factors such as plant traits, time, space, observer, previous detection, biotic interactions, and especially by life - state . 2. We used a double-observer survey and closed population capture-recapture modelling to estimate state -specific detectability of the orchid Cleistes bifaria in a long-term study plot of 41.2 m 2 . Based on AIC c model selection, detectability was different for each life - state and for tagged vs. previously untagged plants. There were no differences in detectability between the two observers. 3. Detectability estimates (SE) for one-leaf vegetative, two-leaf vegetative, and flowering/fruiting states correlated with mean size of these states and were 0.76 (0.05), 0.92 (0.06), and 1 (0.00), respectively, for previously tagged plants, and 0.84 (0.08), 0.75 (0.22), and 0 (0.00), respectively, for previously untagged plants. (We had insufficient data to obtain a satisfactory estimate of previously untagged flowering plants). 4. Our estimates are for a medium-sized plant in a small and intensively surveyed plot. It is possible that detectability is even lower for larger plots and smaller plants or smaller life -states (e.g. seedlings) and that detectabilities < I are widespread in plant demographic studies. 5. State -dependent detectabilities are especially worrying since they will lead to a size- or state -biased sample from the study plot. Failure to incorporate detectability into demographic estimation methods introduces a bias into most estimates of population parameters such as fecundity, recruitment, mortality, and transition rates between life -states. We illustrate this by a simple example using a matrix model, where a hypothetical population was stable but, due to imperfect detection, wrongly projected to be declining at a rate of 8% per year. 6. Almost all plant demographic studies are based on models for discrete states. State and size are important predictors both for demographic rates and detectability . We suggest that even in studies based on small plots, state - or size-specific detectability should be estimated at least at some point to avoid biased inference about the dynamics of the population sampled.

Journal of Ecology↗
USGS2003

Demographic stochasticity in small remnant populations of the declining distylous plant Primula veris

We studied ecological consequences of distyly for the declining perennial plant Primula veris in the Swiss Jura. Distyly favours cross-fertilization and avoids inbreeding, but may lead to pollen limitation and reduced reproduction if morph frequencies deviate from 50 %. Disassortative mating is promoted by the reciprocal position of stigmas and anthers in the two morphs (pin and thrum) and by intramorph incompatibility and should result in equal frequencies of morphs at equilibrium. However, deviations could arise because of demographic stochasticity, the lower intra-morph incompatibility of the pin morph, and niche differentiation between morphs. Demographic stochasticity should result in symmetric deviations from an even morph frequency among populations and in increased deviations with decreasing population size. If crosses between pins occurred, these would only generate pins, and this could result in a pin-bias of morph frequencies in general and in small populations in particular. If the morphs have different niches, morph frequencies should be related to environmental factors, morphs might be spatially segregated, and morphological differences between morphs would be expected. We tested these hypotheses in the declining distylous P. veris. We studied morph frequencies in relation to environmental conditions and population size, spatial segregation in field populations, morphological differences between morphs, and growth responses to nutrient addition. Morph frequencies in 76 populations with 1 - 80000 flowering plants fluctuated symmetrically about 50 %. Deviations from 50 % were much larger in small populations, and sixof the smallest populations had lost one morph altogether. In contrast, morph frequencies were neither related to population size nor to 17 measures of environmental conditions. We found no spatial segregation or morphological differences in the field or in the common garden. The results suggest that demographic stochasticity caused deviations of the morph ratiofrom unity in small populations. Demographic stochasticity was probably caused by the random elimination of plants during the fragmentation of formerly large continuous populations. Biased morph frequencies may be one of the reasons for the strongly reduced reproduction in small populations of P. veris.

Basic and Applied Ecology↗
USGS2003

Estimation of ocelot density in the pantanal using capture-recapture analysis of camera-trapping data

Neotropical felids such as the ocelot ( Leopardus pardalis ) are secretive, and it is difficult to estimate their populations using conventional methods such as radiotelemetry or sign surveys. We show that recognition of individual ocelots from camera-trapping photographs is possible, and we use camera-trapping results combined with closed population capture-recapture models to estimate density of ocelots in the Brazilian Pantanal. We estimated the area from which animals were camera trapped at 17.71 km 2 . A model with constant capture probability yielded an estimate of 10 independent ocelots in our study area, which translates to a density of 2.82 independent individuals for every 5 km 2 ( SE 1.00).

Journal of Mammalogy↗
USGS2002

Demographic consequences of inbreeding and outbreeding in Arnica montana: A field experiment

1. The genetic constitution of populations may significantly affect demography. Founder populations or isolated remnants may show inbreeding depression, while established populations can be strongly adapted to the local environment. Gene exchange between populations can lead to better performance if heterozygosity levels are restored (heterosis), or to reduced performance if coadapted gene complexes are disrupted (outbreeding depression). 2. Five populations of the self-incompatible perennial Arnica montana (Asteraceae) were analysed for the demographic consequences of inbreeding and of intra- and interpopulation outcrossing, using both small and large populations as donors for the latter. We analysed seed production and seed weight and monitored growth, survival and flowering of offspring introduced as seeds and as 4-week-old seedlings in a 4-year field experiment. 3. Reduced seed set after selfing was probably due to the self-incompatibility system rather than to inbreeding depression. There was a significant increase for seed set after interpopulation crosses, which resulted from the alleviation of low mate availability in one of the small populations. 4. Significant inbreeding depression was observed for growth rates of plants introduced as seedlings. We found significant heterosis for flowering probability of plants introduced as seeds, but for plants introduced as seedlings, heterosis for seedling size and flowering probability was only marginally significant. Outbreeding depression was not observed. 5. The results of this study are important for reinforcement measures in small, remnant populations. Significant differences among populations for all measured fitness components suggest that reinforcement is best achieved using material from several populations. 6. The observed higher survival of seedlings as compared with seeds suggests that it is better to plant individuals than to sow. Sowing, however, is easier and cheaper, and was more likely to eliminate poorly adapted genotypes before they contribute to the next generation.

Journal of Ecology↗
USGS2002

Inferring the absence of a species: A case study of snakes

Though the presence of a species can be unequivocally confirmed, its absence can only be inferred with a degree of probability. I used a model to calculate the minimum number of unsuccessful visits to a site that are necessary to assume that a species is absent. The model requires the probability of detection of the species per visit to be known. This probability may vary depending on habitat, year, season, the area surveyed, the population size of the species, and the observer. I studied 3 European snake species-asp viper ( Vipera aspis ), smooth snake ( Coronella austriaca ), and grass snake ( Natrix natrix )-over a 5-yr (1994-1998) interval, and made 645 visits to 87 sites during their activity periods. I used a generalized logistic regression approach with random effects for years and sites to (1) estimate the probability of detection of these species from sites known to be occupied, (2) test factors affecting it, and (3) compute the minimum number of times that a site must be visited to infer the absence of the particular species. Probability of detection for all species was heavily influenced by an index of population size. For V. aspis , probability of detection increased from 0.23 to 0.50 and 0.70 in small, medium, and large populations, respectively. Similarly, probability of detection increased from 0.09 to 0.45 and 0.56 in small, medium, and large populations of C. austriaca , respectively, and from 0.11 in small to 0.25 in medium and large populations of N. natrix . Probability of detection also varied across months for all 3 species, among habitat types ( C. austriaca only), and from year to year ( N. natrix only). Sites with unknown occupancy status conservatively may be assumed to be occupied by small populations. I calculated that such sites need to be surveyed 12, 34, and 26 times for V. aspis , C. austriaca , and N. natrix , respectively, before assuming with 95% probability that the site is unoccupied. These results suggest that some species may be more wide-spread than thought. However, to ascertain the presence of such species at a site, search efforts need to be intensive.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗