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Geology topics

M. Dettinger

Publications and source records attributed to M. Dettinger.

10 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2014

An enhanced archive facilitating climate impacts analysis

We describe the expansion of a publicly available archive of downscaled climate and hydrology projections for the United States. Those studying or planning to adapt to future climate impacts demand downscaled climate model output for local or regional use. The archive we describe attempts to fulfill this need by providing data in several formats, selectable to meet user needs. Our archive has served as a resource for climate impacts modelers, water managers, educators, and others. Over 1,400 individuals have transferred more than 50 TB of data from the archive. In response to user demands, the archive has expanded from monthly downscaled data to include daily data to facilitate investigations of phenomena sensitive to daily to monthly temperature and precipitation, including extremes in these quantities. New developments include downscaled output from the new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations at both the monthly and daily time scales, as well as simulations of surface hydrologi- cal variables. The web interface allows the extraction of individual projections or ensemble statistics for user-defined regions, promoting the rapid assessment of model consensus and uncertainty for future projections of precipitation, temperature, and hydrology. The archive is accessible online (http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_ cmip_projections).

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗
USGS2012

The response of Lake Tahoe to climate change

Meteorology is the driving force for lake internal heating, cooling, mixing, and circulation. Thus continued global warming will affect the lake thermal properties, water level, internal nutrient loading, nutrient cycling, food-web characteristics, fish-habitat, aquatic ecosystem, and other important features of lake limnology. Using a 1-D numerical model - the Lake Clarity Model (LCM) - together with the down-scaled climatic data of the two emissions scenarios (B1 and A2) of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Global Circulation Model, we found that Lake Tahoe will likely cease to mix to the bottom after about 2060 for A2 scenario, with an annual mixing depth of less than 200 m as the most common value. Deep mixing, which currently occurs on average every 3-4 years, will (under the GFDL B1 scenario) occur only four times during 2061 to 2098. When the lake fails to completely mix, the bottom waters are not replenished with dissolved oxygen and eventually dissolved oxygen at these depths will be depleted to zero. When this occurs, soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and ammonium-nitrogen (both biostimulatory) are released from the deep sediments and contribute approximately 51 % and 14 % of the total SRP and dissolved inorganic nitrogen load, respectively. The lake model suggests that climate change will drive the lake surface level down below the natural rim after 2085 for the GFDL A2 but not the GFDL B1 scenario. The results indicate that continued climate changes could pose serious threats to the characteristics of the Lake that are most highly valued. Future water quality planning must take these results into account.

California;Nevada↗
USGS2007

Holocene climates and connections between the San Francisco Bay Estuary and its watershed: A review

Climate over the watershed of the San Francisco Bay Delta estuary system varies on a wide range of space and time scales, and affects downstream estuarine ecosystems. The historical climate has included mild to severe droughts and torrential rains accompanied by flooding, providing important lessons for present-day resource managers. Paleoclimate records spanning the last 10,000 years, synthesized across the Estuary, watershed and key regions beyond, provide a basis for increased understanding of how variable California’s climate can be and how it affects the Bay Delta system. This review of paleoclimate records reveals a gradual warming and drying in California from about 10,000 years to about 4,000 years before present. During this period, the current Bay and Delta were inundated by rising sea level so that by 4,000 years ago the Bay and Delta had taken on much of their present shape and extent. Between about 4,000 and 2,000 years ago, cooler and wetter conditions prevailed in the watershed, lowering salinity in the Estuary and altering local ecosystems. Those wetter conditions gave way to increasing aridity during the past 2,000 years, a general trend punctuated by occasional prolonged and severe droughts and occasional unusually wet, cool periods. California’s climate since A.D. 1850 has been unusually stable and benign, compared to climate variations during the previous 2,000 or more years. Thus, climate variations in California’s future may be even more (perhaps much more) challenging than those of the past 100 years. To improve our understanding of these past examples of climate variability in California, and of the linkages between watershed climate and estuarine responses, greater emphases on paleoclimate records in and around the Estuary, improved temporal resolutions in several record types, and linked watershed-estuary paleo-modeling capabilities are needed.

California↗
USGS2004

Winter orographic precipitation ratios in the Sierra Nevada: Large-scale atmospheric circulations and hydrologic consequences

The extent to which winter precipitation is orographically enhanced within the Sierra Nevada of California varies from storm to storm, and season to season, from occasions when precipitation rates at low and high altitudes are almost the same to instances when precipitation rates at middle elevations (considered here) can be as much as 30 times more than at the base of the range. Analyses of large-scale conditions associated with orographic precipitation variations during storms and seasons from 1954 to 1999 show that strongly orographic storms most commonly have winds that transport water vapor across the range from a more nearly westerly direction than during less orographic storms and than during the largest overall storms, and generally the strongly orographic storms are less convectively stable. Strongly orographic conditions often follow heavy precipitation events because both of these wind conditions are present in midlatitude cyclones that form the cores of many Sierra Nevada storms. Storms during La Niña winters tend to yield larger orographic ratios (ORs) than do those during El Niños. A simple experiment with a model of streamflows from a river basin draining the central Sierra Nevada indicates that, for a fixed overall basin-precipitation amount, a decrease in OR contributes to larger winter flood peaks and smaller springtime flows, and thus to an overall hastening of the runoff season.

Sierra Nevada↗
USGS2003

A delayed action oscillator shared by biennial, interannual, and decadal signals in the Pacific Basin

Biennial, interannual, and decadal signals in the Pacific basin are observed to share patterns and evolution in covarying sea surface temperature (SST), 18??C isotherm depth (Z18), zonal surface wind (ZSW), and wind stress curl (WSC) anomalies from 1955 to 1999. Each signal has warm SST anomalies propagating slowly eastward along the equator, generating westerly ZSW anomalies in their wake. These westerly ZSW anomalies produce cyclonic WSC anomalies off the equator which pump baroclinic Rossby waves in the western/central tropical North Pacific Ocean. These Rossby waves propagate westward, taking ???6, ???12, and ???36 months to reach the western boundary near ???7??N, ???12??N, and ???18??N on biennial, interannual, and decadal period scales, respectively. There, they reflect as equatorial coupled waves, propagating slowly eastward in covarying SST, Z18, and ZSW anomalies, taking ???6, ???12, and ???24 months to reach the central/eastern equatorial ocean. These equatorial coupled waves produce a delayed-negative feedback to the warm SST anomalies there. The decrease in Rossby wave phase speed with latitude, the increase in meridional scale of equatorial SST anomalies with period scale, and the associated increase in latitude of Rossby wave forcing are consistent with the delayed action oscillator (DAO) model used to explain El Nin??o. However, this is not true of the western-boundary reflection of Rossby waves into slow equatorial coupled waves. This requires modification of the extant DAO model. We construct a modified DAO model, demonstrating how the various mechanisms and the size and sources of their delays yield the resulting frequency of each signal.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2002

Snow, topography, and the diurnal cycle in streamflow

Because snowmelt processes are spatially complex, point measurements, particularly in mountainous regions, are often inadequate to resolve basin-scale characteristics. Satellite measurements provide good spatial sampling but are often infrequent in time, particularly during cloudy weather. Fortunately, hourly measurements of river discharge provide another widely available, but as yet underutilized, source of information, providing direct information on basin output at a fine temporal scale. The hour of maximum discharge recorded each day reflects the travel time between peak melt and the time most water reaches the gauge. Traditional theories, based on numerical models of melt-water percolation through a snowpack and localized, small-basin observations, report that the hour of daily maximum flow becomes earlier as the snowpack thins and matures, reflecting shorter travel times for surface melt to reach the base of the snowpack. However, an examination of hourly discharge from 100 basins in the Western United States, ranging in size from 1.3 km2 to 10,813 km2, reveals a more complex situation. The sequences of seasonal evolution of the hour of maximum discharge are unique to each basin, but within a given basin are remarkably consistent between years, regardless of the size of the snowpack. This seems to imply that basin topography strongly influences the timing of peak flow. In most of the basins examined, at the end of the melt season, the hour of maximum discharge shifts to later in the day, reflecting increased travel times as the snowline retreats to higher elevations.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2002

United States streamflow probabilities and uncertainties based on anticipated El Niño, water year 2003

During the course of spring and summer 2002, tropical sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean have warmed and the wind and pressure fields have shifted, so that by August, there was considerable confidence that water year (October–September) 2003 will be characterized by a weak to mild El Niño climate (http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/archive/200208/QuickLook.html). At the same time, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation pattern of sea-surface temperatures in the North Pacific (Mantua et al., 1997) has shifted towards a more neutral state than in the past several years and will not be considered in detail here. Previous studies of the connections between El Niños and streamflow in the United States by the authors (e.g., Redmond and Koch, 1991; Cayan and Webb, 1992; Cayan et al., 1999; Dettinger et al., 2001) indicate that El Niño conditions influence historical streamflow distributions to varying extents. These conclusions, along with those of other researchers, suggest that foreknowledge of El Niño conditions can inform seasonal outlooks for streamflows throughout the Americas and elsewhere. For example, Dettinger et al. (2001), as distilled here into Fig. 1, showed that historical annual streamflow totals have correlated negatively with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI, which is negatively associated with El Niños) in the U.S. Southwest as well as in the subtropics of South America, and correlate positively in the U.S. Northwest, in much of tropical South America, and, perhaps, in southernmost South America. These interhemispheric bands of El Niño influence are a matter of considerable concern for water- and land-managers throughout the Americas, and expand upon results from previous studies in the western United States (e.g., Redmond and Koch, 1991; Cayan and Webb, 1992), including a recent analysis by Pizarro and Lall (2002), where water availability and hydrologic extremes are particularly pressing issues.

Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin↗