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Louis C. Murray

Publications and source records attributed to Louis C. Murray.

7 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2012

Relations between precipitation, groundwater withdrawals, and changes in hydrologic conditions at selected monitoring sites in Volusia County, Florida, 1995--2010

A study to examine the influences of climatic and anthropogenic stressors on groundwater levels, lake stages, and surface-water discharge at selected sites in northern Volusia County, Florida, was conducted in 2009 by the U.S. Geological Survey. Water-level data collected at 20 monitoring sites (17 groundwater and 3 lake sites) in the vicinity of a wetland area were analyzed with multiple linear regression to examine the relative influences of precipitation and groundwater withdrawals on changes in groundwater levels and lake stage. Analyses were conducted across varying periods of record between 1995 and 2010 and included the effects of groundwater withdrawals aggregated from municipal water-supply wells located within 12 miles of the project sites. Surface-water discharge data at the U.S. Geological Survey Tiger Bay canal site were analyzed for changes in flow between 1978 and 2001. As expected, water-level changes in monitoring wells located closer to areas of concentrated groundwater withdrawals were more highly correlated with withdrawals than were water-level changes measured in wells further removed from municipal well fields. Similarly, water-level changes in wells tapping the Upper Floridan aquifer, the source of municipal supply, were more highly correlated with groundwater withdrawals than were water-level changes in wells tapping the shallower surficial aquifer system. Water-level changes predicted by the regression models over precipitation-averaged periods of record were underestimated for observations having large positive monthly changes (generally greater than 1.0 foot). Such observations are associated with high precipitation and were identified as points in the regression analyses that produced large standardized residuals and/or observations of high influence. Thus, regression models produced by multiple linear regression analyses may have better predictive capability in wetland environments when applied to periods of average or below average precipitation conditions than during wetter than average conditions. For precipitation-averaged hydrologic conditions, water-level changes in the surficial aquifer system were statistically correlated solely with precipitation or were more highly correlated with precipitation than with groundwater withdrawals. Changes in Upper Floridan aquifer water levels and in water-surface stage (stage) at Indian and Scoggin Lakes tended to be highly correlated with both precipitation and withdrawals. The greater influence of withdrawals on stage changes, relative to changes in nearby surficial aquifer system water levels, indicates that these karstic lakes may be better connected hydraulically with the underlying Upper Floridan aquifer than is the surficial aquifer system at the other monitoring sites. At most sites, and for both aquifers, the 2-month moving average of precipitation or groundwater withdrawals included as an explanatory variable in the regression models indicates that water-level changes are not only influenced by stressor conditions across the current month, but also by those of the previous month. The relations between changes in water levels, precipitation, and groundwater withdrawals varied seasonally and in response to a period of drought. Water-level changes tended to be most highly correlated with withdrawals during the spring, when relatively large increases contributed to water-level declines, and during the fall when reduced withdrawal rates contributed to water-level recovery. Water-level changes tended to be most highly (or solely) correlated with precipitation in the winter, when withdrawals are minimal, and in the summer when precipitation is greatest. Water-level changes measured during the drought of October 2005 to June 2008 tended to be more highly correlated with groundwater withdrawals at Upper Floridan aquifer sites than at surficial aquifer system sites, results that were similar to those for precipitation-averaged conditions. Also, changes in stage at Indian and Scoggin Lakes were highly correlated with precipitation and groundwater withdrawals during the drought. Groundwater-withdrawal rates during the drought were, on average, greater than those for precipitation-averaged conditions. Accounting only for withdrawals aggregated from pumping wells located within varying radial distances of less than 12 miles of each site produced essentially the same relation between water-level changes and groundwater withdrawals as that determined for withdrawals aggregated within 12 miles of the site. Similarly, increases in withdrawals aggregated over distances of 1 to 12 miles of the sites had little effect on adjusted R-squared values. Analyses of streamflow measurements collected between 1978 and 2001 at the U.S. Geological Survey Tiger Bay canal site indicate that significant changes occurred during base-flow conditions during that period. Hypothesis and trend testing, together with analyses of flow duration, the number of zero-flow days, and double-mass curves indicate that, after 1988, when a municipal well field began production, base flow was statistically lower than the period before 1988. This decrease in base flow could not be explained by variations in precipitation between these two periods.

Florida↗
USGS2010

Relations between groundwater levels and anthropogenic and meteorological stressors at selected sites in east-central Florida, 1995-2007

Multivariate linear regression analyses were used to define the relations of water levels in the Upper Floridan aquifer (UFA) and surficial aquifer system (SAS) to anthropogenic and meteorological stressors between 1995 and 2007 at two monitoring well sites (Charlotte Street and Lake Oliver) in east-central Florida. Anthropogenic stressors of interest included municipal and agricultural groundwater withdrawals, and application of reclaimed-water to rapid-infiltration basins (source of aquifer recharge). Meteorological stressors included precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. Overall, anthropogenic and meteorological stressors accounted for about 40 to 89 percent of the variance in UFA and SAS groundwater levels and water-level changes. While mean monthly water levels were better correlated with monthly stressor values, changes in UFA and SAS water levels were better correlated with changes in stressor values. Water levels and water-level changes were influenced by system persistence as the moving-averaged values of both stressor types, which accounted for the influence of the previous month(s) conditions, consistently yielded higher adjusted coefficients of determination (R2 adj) values than did single monthly values. While monthly water-level changes tend to be influenced equally with both stressors across the hydrologically averaged 13-year period, changes were more influenced by one stressor or the other seasonally and during extended wet and dry periods. Seasonally, UFA water-level changes tended to be more influenced by anthropogenic stressors than by meteorological stressors, while changes in SAS water levels tended to be more influenced by meteorological stressors. During extended dry periods (12 months or greater), changes in UFA water levels at Charlotte Street were more affected by anthropogenic stressors than by meteorological stressors, while changes in SAS levels were more affected by meteorological stressors. At Lake Oliver, changes in both UFA and SAS water levels were better correlated with meteorological stressors for all but the wet period between April 1995 and April 1996. Interestingly, changes in both UFA and SAS water levels at Charlotte Street were also better correlated with anthropogenic stressors during a similar wet period between April 1995 and June 1996 when substantive reductions in groundwater withdrawals resulted in appreciable recovery of both UFA and SAS water levels. The regional effects of anthropogenic stressors had limited influence on water-level changes at Charlotte Street and virtually no influence on changes at Lake Oliver. When regressed against the 2.2 Mgal/d (million gallons per day) of municipal withdrawals located within 2 miles of the Charlotte Street site, water-level changes were influenced solely by precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. At a radius of 2.5 miles, however, where cumulative withdrawals totaled about 9.5 Mgal/d, water-level changes were equally influenced by both anthropogenic and meteorological stressors. Withdrawals located at distances of greater than 3 miles from this site had no appreciable effect on relations between water-level changes and these stressors. At Lake Oliver, changes in UFA water levels were equally influenced by both stressors regardless of distance, while changes in SAS levels were more influenced by meteorological stressors at all distances.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2009

Relations between Municipal Water Use and Selected Meteorological Parameters and Drought Indices, East-Central and Northeast Florida

Water-use data collected between 1992 and 2006 at eight municipal water-supply utilities in east-central and northeast Florida were analyzed to identify seasonal trends in use and to quantify monthly variations. Regression analyses were applied to identify significant correlations between water use and selected meteorological parameters and drought indices. Selected parameters and indices include precipitation (P), air temperature (T), potential evapotranspiration (PET), available water (P-PET), monthly changes in these parameters (Delta P, Delta T, Delta PET, Delta(P-PET), the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Selected utilities include the City of Daytona Beach (Daytona), the City of Eustis (Eustis), Gainesville Regional Utilities (GRU), Jacksonville Electric Authority (JEA), Orange County Utilities (OCU), Orlando Utilities Commission (OUC), Seminole County Utilities (SCU), and the City of St. Augustine (St. Augustine). Water-use rates at these utilities in 2006 ranged from about 3.2 million gallons per day at Eustis to about 131 million gallons per day at JEA. Total water-use rates increased at all utilities throughout the 15-year period of record, ranging from about 4 percent at Daytona to greater than 200 percent at OCU and SCU. Metered rates, however, decreased at six of the eight utilities, ranging from about 2 percent at OCU and OUC to about 17 percent at Eustis. Decreases in metered rates occurred because the number of metered connections increased at a greater rate than did total water use, suggesting that factors other than just population growth may play important roles in water-use dynamics. Given the absence of a concurrent trend in precipitation, these decreases can likely be attributed to changes in non-climatic factors such as water-use type, usage of reclaimed water, water-use restrictions, demographics, and so forth. When averaged for the eight utilities, metered water-use rates depict a clear seasonal pattern in which rates were lowest in the winter and greatest in the late spring. Averaged water-use rates ranged from about 9 percent below the 15-year daily mean in January to about 11 percent above the daily mean in May. Water-use rates were found to be statistically correlated to meteorological parameters and drought indices, and to be influenced by system memory. Metered rates (in gallons per day per active metered connection) were consistently found to be influenced by P, T, PET, and P-PET and changes in these parameters that occurred in prior months. In the single-variant analyses, best correlations were obtained by fitting polynomial functions to plots of metered rates versus moving-averaged values of selected parameters (R2 values greater than 0.50 at three of eight sites). Overall, metered water-use rates were best correlated with the 3- to 4-month moving average of Delta T or Delta PET (R2 values up to 0.66), whereas the full suite of meteorological parameters was best correlated with metered rates at Daytona and least correlated with rates at St. Augustine. Similarly, metered rates were substantially better correlated with moving-averaged values of precipitation (significant at all eight sites) than with single (current) monthly values (significant at only three sites). Total and metered water-use rates were positively correlated with T, PET, Delta P, Delta T, and Delta PET, and negatively correlated with P, P-PET, Delta (P-PET), PDSI, and SPI. The drought indices were better correlated with total water-use rates than with metered rates, whereas metered rates were better correlated with meteorological parameters. Multivariant analyses produced fits of the data that explained a greater degree of the variance in metered rates than did the single-variant analyses. Adjusted R2 values for the 'best' models ranged from 0.79 at JEA to 0.29 at St. Augustine and exceeded 0.60 at five of eight sites. The amount of available water (P-PET) was the si

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2007

Analyses of Water-Level Differentials and Variations in Recharge between the Surficial and Upper Floridan Aquifers in East-Central and Northeast Florida

Continuous (daily) water-level data collected at 29 monitoring-well cluster sites were analyzed to document variations in recharge between the surficial (SAS) and Floridan (FAS) aquifer systems in east-central and northeast Florida. According to Darcy's law, changes in the water-level differentials (differentials) between these systems are proportional to changes in the vertical flux of water between them. Variations in FAS recharge rates are of interest to water-resource managers because changes in these rates affect sensitive water resources subject to minimum flow and water-level restrictions, such as the amount of water discharged from springs and changes in lake and wetland water levels. Mean daily differentials between 2000-2004 ranged from less than 1 foot at a site in east-central Florida to more than 114 feet at a site in northeast Florida. Sites with greater mean differentials exhibited lower percentage-based ranges in fluctuations than did sites with lower mean differentials. When averaged for all sites, differentials (and thus Upper Floridan aquifer (UFA) recharge rates) decreased by about 18 percent per site between 2000-2004. This pattern can be associated with reductions in ground-water withdrawals from the UFA that occurred after 2000 as the peninsula emerged from a 3-year drought. Monthly differentials exhibited a well-defined seasonal pattern in which UFA recharge rates were greatest during the dry spring months (8 percent above the 5-year daily mean in May) and least during the wetter summer/early fall months (4 percent below the 5-year daily mean in October). In contrast, differentials exceeded the 5-year daily mean in all but 2 months of 2000, indicative of relatively high ground-water withdrawals throughout the year. On average, the UFA received about 6 percent more recharge at the project sites in 2000 than between 2000-2004. No statistically significant correlations were detected between monthly differentials and precipitation at 27 of the 29 sites between 2000-2004. For longer periods of record, double-mass plots of differentials and precipitation indicate the UFA recharge rate increased by about 34 percent at a site in west Orange County between the periods of 1974-1983 and 1983-2004. Given the absence of a trend in rainfall, the increase can likely be attributed to ground-water development. At a site in south Lake County, double-mass plots indicate that dredging of the Palatlakaha River and other nearby drainage improvements may have reduced recharge rates to the UFA by about 30 percent from the period between 1960-1965 to 1965-1970. Water-level differentials were positively correlated with land-surface altitude. The correlation was particularly strong for the 11 sites located in physiographically-defined ridge areas (coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.89). Weaker yet statistically significant negative correlations were detected between differentials and the model-calibrated leakance and thickness of the intermediate confining unit (ICU). Recharge to the UFA decreased by about 14 percent at the Charlotte Street monitoring-well site in Seminole County between 2000-2004. The decrease can be attributed to a reduction in nearby pumpage, from 57 to 49 million gallons per day over the 5-year period, with a subsequent recovery in UFA water levels that exceeded those in the SAS. Differentials at Charlotte were influenced by system memory of both precipitation and pumpage. While not statistically correlated with monthly precipitation, monthly differentials were well correlated with the 9-month moving average of precipitation. Similarly, differentials were best correlated with the 2-month moving average of pumpage. The polynomial function that quantifies the correlation between differentials and the 2-month moving average of pumpage indicates that, in terms of UFA recharge rates, the system was closer to a steady-state condition in 2000 when pumpage rates were high, than from 2001-2004 when p

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS1999

Simulated effects of projected ground-water withdrawals in the Floridan aquifer system, greater Orlando metropolitan area, east-central Florida

Ground-water levels in the Floridan aquifer system within the greater Orlando metropolitan area are expected to decline because of a projected increase in the average pumpage rate from 410 million gallons per day in 1995 to 576 million gallons per day in 2020. The potential decline in ground-water levels and spring discharge within the area was investigated with a calibrated, steady-state, ground-water flow model. A wetter-than-average condition scenario and a drought-condition scenario were simulated to bracket the range of water-levels and springflow that may occur in 2020 under average rainfall conditions. Pumpage used to represent the drought-condition scenario totaled 865 million gallons per day, about 50 percent greater than the projected average pumpage rate in 2020. Relative to average 1995 steady-state conditions, drawdowns simulated in the Upper Floridan aquifer exceeded 10 and 25 feet for wet and dry conditions, respectively, in parts of central and southwest Orange County and in north Osceola County. In Seminole County, drawdowns of up to 20 feet were simulated for dry conditions, compared with 5 to 10 feet simulated for wet conditions. Computed springflow was reduced by 10 percent for wet conditions and by 38 percent for dry conditions, with the largest reductions (28 and 76 percent) occurring at the Sanlando Springs group. In the Lower Floridan aquifer, drawdowns simulated in southwest Orange County exceeded 20 and 40 feet for wet and dry conditions, respectively.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗