Geology topics

Lindsey Ayn Schafer

Publications and source records attributed to Lindsey Ayn Schafer.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Spatially consistent but temporally divergent changes in nitrate and phosphorus loads and yields in Illinois watersheds, 1997–2022

Illinois contributes substantial nutrient loads to the Gulf of America, warranting watershed-scale assessment. This study estimated nitrate-nitrogen (nitrate-N) and total phosphorus (TP) loads and yields for 49 Illinois 8-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC8) watersheds draining to the Mississippi River Basin from 1997–2022, comparing recent (2018–2022) to baseline (1997–2011) conditions. Estimates included point and nonpoint source contributions, dissolved phosphorus, and water yields. During the recent period, nonpoint sources dominated nutrient export (82% nitrate-N, 78% TP), though point sources drove high yields in the Chicago area. Spatially, nonpoint source nutrient hotspots persisted with nitrate-N yields highest in east-central and northern Illinois and TP yields higher in southern and western Illinois. Temporally, statewide nitrate-N loads decreased 9%, while TP loads increased 27%. Nitrate-N yields increased in 22 HUC8s and decreased in 20, while TP yields increased in 32 HUC8s and decreased in 9. For both nutrients, baseline yields were negatively correlated with yield changes, indicating high-yielding watersheds tended toward larger decreases or smaller increases. Water yields increased 19% on average but were weakly correlated with nutrient yield changes ( r = 0.23 and 0.20 for nitrate-N and TP). These results reveal spatially persistent yet temporally divergent nutrient export across Illinois, with contrasting nitrate-N and TP trajectories for nonpoint sources.

Illinois↗

USGS2025

Tracking persistent declines in suspended sediment in the Lower Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers, 1992–2021: Harnessing WRTDSplus to characterize longitudinally varying trends and explore connections to streamflow

Suspended sediment (SS) continues a century-long decline in the Lower Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers, United States. In this study, we use the WRTDSplus model to estimate concentrations and loads for total, fine (<0.0625 millimeter (mm)), and coarse (≥0.0625 mm) SS for 11 sites. This extension of the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) model allows a fourth explanatory variable in the model formulation. We incorporated hysteresis terms for most models based on a residual analysis, which allowed for the identification of decreased flushing over time at some sites. Total, fine, and coarse SS concentrations and loads decreased at all sites over two trend periods (water years (WY) 1992–2021 and WY 2012–2021). Declines were largely due to changes in fine SS (mud and silt) but decreases in coarse SS (sands) were also widespread. On average, recent declines are more severe in the Lower Mississippi River below the Old River Control Complex (ORCC, −3.7 mg per liter per year (mg/L/yr)) compared to the Atchafalaya River (−2.0 mg/L/yr), although there is longitudinal variability within each river. The reach below the ORCC is a net SS sink, leading to complex temporal changes for the sites in this area. Streamflows (low, moderate, and high) have increased over these periods, with the last decade being particularly wet. Increasing streamflow and decreasing SS, with little evidence of amelioration, may influence spillway operations during floods, sediment diversion construction and operation, coastal restoration efforts, and aquatic health.

Louisiana, Mississippi↗

USGS2025

Diverging trends in nitrate and phosphorus loads and yields across Illinois watersheds, 1997–2022

Illinois is a major contributor of nutrients to the northern Gulf of Mexico. As such, the State of Illinois initiated efforts to curb nutrient runoff over the last several decades. To evaluate progress towards these reductions, water-quality data were used to estimate incremental loads and yields of nitrate plus nitrite (NO3) and total phosphorus (TP) from 1997–2022 for 49 Illinois watersheds, defined using eight-digit hydrologic unit codes (HUC8), draining to the Mississippi River Basin. To estimate changes in NO3 and TP loads, recent loads from the period 2018 through 2022 were compared to baseline loads from 1997 through 2011. Nonpoint and point source loads, dissolved phosphorus (DP) loads, and water yields were also estimated. The sum of the incremental NO3 loads from the 49 HUC8s decreased 9% despite a 19% increase in water yield. Much of this decline occurred in HUC8s that had NO3 yields greater than 17 pounds per acre per year (lbs/acre/yr) during a 1997–2011 baseline period. The sum of all incremental HUC8 TP loads increased 25% despite a 27% reduction in point source discharge. Loads and yields were substantially larger for both NO3 and TP in the Chicago area. Outside the Chicago area, central and northern Illinois had higher NO3 yields than southern Illinois and a reverse pattern for TP where higher yields occur in southern Illinois. Nonpoint sources made up an estimated 82% and 78% of the NO3 and TP yields, respectively, across the HUC8s. In general, point source yields have mostly decreased over time, while nonpoint source yields varied depending on location and reflect the changes in the total yield.

Illinois↗

USGS2023

Differing field methods and site conditions lead to varying bias in suspended sediment concentrations in the Lower Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers

At sites that have been sampled for decades, changes in field and laboratory methods happen over time as instrumentation and protocols improve. Here, we compare the influence of depth- and point-integrated sampling on total, fine (< 0.0625 mm), and coarse (≥ 0.0625 mm) suspended sediment (SS) concentrations in the Lower Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers. Using historical field method information, we identified seven sites to test such differences. We found SS samples collected using point-integration tended to have higher concentrations than those collected using depth-integration. However, the presence and magnitude of the bias were inconsistent across sites. Bias was present at the site with less-than-ideal conditions (i.e., non-trapezoidal channel, non-uniform flow) and non-existent at the ideal site location, indicating the bias between sampling methods depends on site sampling conditions. When present, the bias is greater at higher concentrations and at moderate to high flows. At the less-than-ideal site, point-integrated samples can have 16% (total) and 34% (coarse) higher concentrations than depth-integrated samples. When flow effects are removed, this translates to a bias of 19, 9, and 8 mg per liter for total, fine, and coarse SS. When a change in field methods occurs, comparison samples and a rigorous evaluation of those samples are warranted to determine the proper course of action for a particular site. Often, the effect and solution will not be known until several years of comparison samples have been collected under a variety of hydrologic conditions.

Louisiana↗