Geology topics

Leslie New

Publications and source records attributed to Leslie New.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2021

Adaptive management to improve eagle conservation at terrestrial wind facilities

The development and installation of renewable energy comes with environmental cost, including the death of wildlife. These costs occur locally, and seem small compared to the global loss of biodiversity. However, failure to acknowledge uncertainties around these costs affects local conservation, and may lead to the loss of populations or species. Working with these uncertainties can result in adaptive management plans designed to benefit renewable energy development and conservation. An example is the U.S. government's policy for managing bald ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) and golden ( Aquila chrysaetos ) eagle deaths at terrestrial wind facilities. Using records from 422 U.S. wind facilities we improved the precision of estimates of exposure (8.79 eagle minutes hr −1 km −3 , SD: 13.64) and collision probability (0.0058 birds per minute of exposure, SD: 0.0038) currently used in U.S. policy. The new estimates for bald (exposure: 3.19 eagle minutes hr −1 km −3 , SD: 2.583; collision probability: 0.007025 eagles per minute of exposure, SD: 0.004379) and golden (exposure: 1.21 eagle minutes hr −1 km −3 , SD: 0.352; collision probability: 0.005648 birds per minute of exposure, SD: 0.004413) eagles had a smaller mean and standard deviation. Thus, their implementation within the government's adaptive management framework could help refine the balance between energy consumption and conservation.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

USGS2018

State‐space modelling of the flight behaviour of a soaring bird provides new insights to migratory strategies

Characterising the spatiotemporal variation of animal behaviour can elucidate the way individuals interact with their environment and allocate energy. Increasing sophistication of tracking technologies paired with novel analytical approaches allows the characterisation of movement dynamics even when an individual is not directly observable. In this study, high‐resolution movement data collected via global positioning system (GPS) tracking in three dimensions were paired with topographical information and used in a Bayesian state‐space model to describe the flight modes of migrating golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) in eastern North America. Our model identified five functional behavioural states, two of which were previously undescribed variations on thermal soaring. The other states comprised gliding, perching and orographic soaring. States were discriminated by movement features in the horizontal (step length and turning angle) and vertical (change in altitude) planes and by the association with ridgelines promoting wind deflection. Tracked eagles spent 2%, 31%, 38%, 9% and 20% of their daytime in directed thermal soaring, gliding, convoluted thermal soaring, perching and orographic soaring, respectively. The analysis of the relative occurrence of these flight modes highlighted yearly, seasonal, age, individual and sex differences in flight strategy and performance. Particularly, less energy‐efficient orographic soaring was more frequent in autumn, when thermals were less available. Adult birds were also better at optimising energy efficiency than subadults. Our approach represents the first example of a state‐space model for bird flight mode using altitude data in conjunction with horizontal locations and is applicable to other flying organisms where similar data are available. The ability to describe animal movements in a three‐dimensional habitat is critical to advance our understanding of the functional processes driving animals’ decisions.

Functional Ecology↗

USGS2015

The effects of body size and climate on post-weaning survival of elephant seals at Heard Island

The population size of southern elephant seals in the southern Indian and Pacific Oceans decreased precipitously between the 1950s and 1990s. To investigate the reasons behind this, we studied the population of southern elephant seals at Heard Island between 1949 and 1954, using data collected by the early Australian National Antarctic Research Expeditions. Seals were marked and measured (lengths) as weaned pups, and resighted at Heard and Marion islands and in the Vestfold Hills, Antarctica in subsequent years. Bayesian state-space mark-recapture models were used to determine post-weaning survival. Yearling survival was consistently lower (ϕy: 0.28–0.40) than sub-adult survival (ϕs: 0.79–0.83). We found evidence for constant sub-adult survival and time-dependent resight probabilities. Weaning length was an important determinate of yearling survival, with the probability of survival increasing with individual length. There was some suggestion that the Southern Annular Mode influenced yearling survival but this evidence was not strong. Nonetheless, our results provide further support showing that size at independence affects yearling survival. Given the known sensitivity of southern elephant seal populations to survival early in life, it is possible that the decline in population size at Heard Island between the 1950s and 1990s like that at Macquarie Island was due to low yearling survival mediated through maternal ability to produce large pups and the dominant environmental conditions mothers experience during pregnancy.

Heard Island↗

USGS2015

A collision risk model to predict avian fatalities at wind facilities: an example using golden eagles, Aquila chrysaetos

Wind power is a major candidate in the search for clean, renewable energy. Beyond the technical and economic challenges of wind energy development are environmental issues that may restrict its growth. Avian fatalities due to collisions with rotating turbine blades are a leading concern and there is considerable uncertainty surrounding avian collision risk at wind facilities. This uncertainty is not reflected in many models currently used to predict the avian fatalities that would result from proposed wind developments. We introduce a method to predict fatalities at wind facilities, based on pre-construction monitoring. Our method can directly incorporate uncertainty into the estimates of avian fatalities and can be updated if information on the true number of fatalities becomes available from post-construction carcass monitoring. Our model considers only three parameters: hazardous footprint, bird exposure to turbines and collision probability. By using a Bayesian analytical framework we account for uncertainties in these values, which are then reflected in our predictions and can be reduced through subsequent data collection. The simplicity of our approach makes it accessible to ecologists concerned with the impact of wind development, as well as to managers, policy makers and industry interested in its implementation in real-world decision contexts. We demonstrate the utility of our method by predicting golden eagle ( Aquila chrysaetos ) fatalities at a wind installation in the United States. Using pre-construction data, we predicted 7.48 eagle fatalities year -1 (95% CI: (1.1, 19.81)). The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service uses the 80th quantile (11.0 eagle fatalities year -1 ) in their permitting process to ensure there is only a 20% chance a wind facility exceeds the authorized fatalities. Once data were available from two-years of post-construction monitoring, we updated the fatality estimate to 4.8 eagle fatalities year-1 (95% CI: (1.76, 9.4); 80 th quantile, 6.3). In this case, the increased precision in the fatality prediction lowered the level of authorized take, and thus lowered the required amount of compensatory mitigation.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2015

The modelling and assessment of whale-watching impacts

In recent years there has been significant interest in modelling cumulative effects and the population consequences of individual changes in cetacean behaviour and physiology due to disturbance. One potential source of disturbance that has garnered particular interest is whale-watching. Though perceived as ‘green’ or eco-friendly tourism, there is evidence that whale-watching can result in statistically significant and biologically meaningful changes in cetacean behaviour, raising the question whether whale-watching is in fact a long term sustainable activity. However, an assessment of the impacts of whale-watching on cetaceans requires an understanding of the potential behavioural and physiological effects, data to effectively address the question and suitable modelling techniques. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the viability of long-term whale-watching, as well as logistical limitations and potential opportunities. We conclude that an integrated, coordinated approach will be needed to further understanding of the possible effects of whale-watching on cetaceans.

Ocean and Coastal Management↗