Geology topics

Layne G. Adams

Publications and source records attributed to Layne G. Adams.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

DNA metabarcoding and video camera collars yield different inferences about the summer diet of an arctic ungulate

The diets of wild ungulates are a foundational component of their ecology, influencing their behavior, body condition, and demography. With changing environmental conditions, there is a significant need to identify important forage items for ungulates, but this has often proved challenging. Declines in several barren-ground caribou herds across the North American Arctic have raised concerns about the influence of climate change on caribou forage conditions. Shifts in plant phenology, biomass, quality, and composition may be influencing caribou diets and subsequently affecting their body condition and demographic rates. Although forage is a primary driver of barren-ground caribou behavior and population dynamics, there is limited recent information about the specific foods they consume, and uncertainty about appropriate methods for identifying those foods. Investigators are increasingly using fecal DNA metabarcoding and video camera collars to assess ungulate diets, but comparative studies of these approaches are lacking. To examine the summer diets of barren-ground caribou, we used both fecal metabarcoding and video camera collars to identify forage used by the Porcupine caribou herd, which spans the Alaska–Yukon border. In 2021, we sampled the diets of adult females by collecting fecal samples and observing collar videos during 4 sampling occasions. We found that caribou consumed very specific forage items, and those items varied markedly across the growing season. Caribou predominantly consumed graminoids and lichens during early summer, and shrubs and forbs later in the season. Metabarcoding and video data provided significantly different estimates of diet for all taxonomic levels we evaluated, and inferences from the two approaches were often disparate. Metabarcoding failed to detect some items frequently consumed in videos, such as lichens, and indicated high use of other items rarely consumed, such as mosses. We found that video data provided greater taxonomic diversity and resolution for vascular plants and lichens, and more closely aligned with past research and biological expectations than data from fecal metabarcoding. Additional research is needed to be able to use these methods to identify the biomass of different forage items consumed.

Alaska, Yukon↗

USGS2025

Marginalizing time in habitat selection and species distribution models improves inference

Aim Recent methodological advances for studying how animals move and use space with telemetry data have focused on fine-scale, more mechanistic inference. However, in many cases, researchers and managers remain interested in larger scale questions regarding species distribution and habitat use across study areas, landscapes, or seasonal ranges. Point processes offer a unified framework for many methods applied in studies of species distribution and resource selection; however, challenges remain in terms of dealing with temporal autocorrelation common in many types of telemetry data collected from animal locations. Innovation Space–time point processes (STPPs) have a unique property, in that marginalising time offers a connection between individual animal movement and broader point processes, yet this property has seen little attention in both statistical and applied research. In this paper, we first present some of the details of this marginalisation property and methods for applying marginalised STPPs (mSTTPs) to autocorrelated telemetry data and then apply a mSTTP in a case study on the summer space use and habitat selection of female caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ) in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska. Main Conclusions The case study demonstrated that an mSTPP approach can improve inference over other commonly used methods in terms of its ability to account for temporal autocorrelation and offers greater precision in parameter estimates and improved predictions of space use. As this method fits conveniently into the existing point process frameworks, it offers a practical solution to dealing with temporal autocorrelation inherent to many types of telemetry data when research questions center around broader scale patterns of animal habitat selection and space use.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

Survival and reproduction in Arctic caribou are associated with summer forage and insect harassment

Investigators have speculated that the climate-driven “greening of the Arctic” may benefit barren-ground caribou populations, but paradoxically many populations have declined in recent years. This pattern has raised concerns about the influence of summer habitat conditions on caribou demographic rates, and how populations may be impacted in the future. The short Arctic summer provides caribou with important forage resources but is also the time they are exposed to intense harassment by insects, factors which are both being altered by longer, warmer growing seasons. To better understand the effects of summer forage and insect activity on Arctic caribou demographic rates, we investigated the influence of estimated forage biomass, digestible energy (DE), digestible nitrogen (DN), and mosquito activity on the reproductive success and survival of adult females in the Central Arctic Herd on the North Slope of Alaska. We tested the hypotheses that greater early summer DN would increase subsequent reproduction (parturition and late June calving success) while greater biomass and DE would increase adult survival (September–May), and that elevated mosquito activity would reduce both demographic rates. Because the period when abundant forage DN is limited and overlaps with the period of mosquito harassment, we also expected years with low DN and high harassment to synergistically reduce caribou reproductive success. Examining these relationships at the individual-level, using GPS-collared females, and at the population-level, using long-term monitoring data, we generally found support for our expectations. Greater early summer DN was associated with increased subsequent calving success, while greater summer biomass was associated with increased adult survival. Mosquito activity was associated with reductions in adult female parturition, late June calving success, and survival, and in years with low DN, had compounding effects on subsequent late June calving success. Our findings indicate that summer nutrition and mosquito activity collectively influence the demographic rates of Arctic caribou, and may impact the dynamics of populations in the future under changing environmental conditions.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

A serological survey of Francisella tularensis exposure in wildlife on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska

Tularemia is an infectious zoonotic disease caused by one of several subspecies of Francisella tularensis bacteria. Infections by F. tularensis are common throughout the northern hemisphere and have been detected in more than 250 wildlife species. In Alaska, US, where the pathogen was first identified in 1938, studies have identified F. tularensis antibodies in a diverse suite of taxa, including insects, birds, and mammals. However, few such investigations have been conducted recently and knowledge about the current distribution and disease ecology of F. tularensis is limited, particularly in Arctic Alaska, an area undergoing rapid environmental changes from climate warming. To help address these information gaps and provide insights about patterns of exposure among wildlife, we assessed the seroprevalence of F. tularensis antibodies in mammals and tundra-nesting geese from the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska, 2014–17. With a commercially available slide agglutination test, we detected antibodies in 14.7% of all individuals sampled ( n =722), with titers ranging from 1:20 to 1:320. We detected significant differences in seroprevalence between family groups, with Canidae (foxes, Vulpes spp.) and Sciuridae (Arctic ground squirrel, Spermophilus parryii ) having the highest seroprevalence at 21.5% and 33.3%, respectively. Mean seroprevalence for Ursidae (polar bears, Ursus maritimus ) was 13.3%, whereas Cervidae (caribou, Rangifer tarandus ) had comparatively low seroprevalence at 6.5%. Antibodies were detected in all Anatidae species sampled, with Black Brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) having the highest seroprevalence at 13.6%. The detection of F. tularensis antibodies across multiple taxa from the Arctic Coastal Plain and its nearshore marine region provides evidence of exposure to this pathogen throughout the region and highlights the need for renewed surveillance in Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Dynamic selection for forage quality and quantity in response to phenology and insects in an Arctic ungulate

Spatiotemporal variation in forage is a primary driver of ungulate behavior, yet little is known about the nutritional components they select, and how selection varies across the growing season with changes in forage quality and quantity. We addressed these uncertainties in barren-ground caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ), which experience their most important foraging opportunities during the short Arctic summer. Recent declines in Arctic caribou populations have raised concerns about the influence of climate change on summer foraging opportunities, given shifting vegetation conditions and insect harassment, and their potential effects on caribou body condition and demography. We examined Arctic caribou selection of summer forage by pairing locations from females in the Central Arctic Herd of Alaska with spatiotemporal predictions of biomass, digestible nitrogen (DN), and digestible energy (DE). We then assessed selection for these nutritional components across the growing season at landscape and patch scales, and determined whether foraging opportunities were constrained by insect harassment. During early summer, at the landscape scale, caribou selected for intermediate biomass and high DN and DE, following expectations of the forage maturation hypothesis. At the patch scale, however, caribou selected for high values of all forage components, particularly DN, suggesting that protein may be limiting. During late summer, after DN declined below the threshold for protein gain, caribou exhibited a switch at both spatial scales, selecting for higher biomass, likely enabling mass and fat deposition. Mosquito activity strongly altered caribou selection of forage and increased their movement rates, while oestrid fly activity had little influence. Our results demonstrate that early and late summer periods afford Arctic caribou distinct foraging opportunities, as they prioritize quality earlier in the summer and quantity later. Climate change may further constrain caribou access to DN as earlier, warmer Arctic summers may be associated with reduced DN and increased mosquito harassment.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Novel insights into serodiagnosis and epidemiology of Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae, a newly recognized pathogen in muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus)

Muskoxen are a key species of Arctic ecosystems and are important for food security and socio-economic well-being of many Indigenous communities in the Arctic and Subarctic. Between 2009 and 2014, the bacterium Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae was isolated for the first time in this species in association with multiple mortality events in Canada and Alaska, raising questions regarding the spatiotemporal occurrence of the pathogen and its potential impact on muskox populations.

Alaska, Yukon, Northwester Territories, Nunavut↗

USGS2019

Caribou use of habitat near energy development in Arctic Alaska

Increasing demands for energy have generated interest in expanding oil and gas production on the North Slope of Alaska, raising questions about the resilience of barren-ground caribou populations to new development. Although the amount of habitat lost directly to energy development in the Arctic will likely be relatively small, there are significant concerns about habitat that may be indirectly impacted due to caribou avoidance behaviors. Behavioral responses to energy development for wildlife have been well-documented, but such responses are often assumed to dissipate over time, despite scant information on the ability of animals to habituate. To understand the long-term effects of energy development on barren-ground caribou we investigated the behavior of the Central Arctic Herd in northern Alaska, which has been exposed to oil development on its summer range for approximately 40 years. Using recent (2015-2017) location data from GPS collared females, we conducted a zone of influence analysis to assess whether caribou reduced their use of habitat near energy development, and if so, the distance the effects attenuated. We conducted this analysis for the calving, post-calving and mosquito harassment periods when caribou exhibit distinct resource selection patterns, and contrasted our results to past research that investigated the responses of the Central Arctic Caribou Herd immediately following the construction of the oil fields. Despite the long-term presence of energy development within the Central Arctic Herd summer range, we found that female caribou exhibited avoidance responses to infrastructure during all time periods, although the effects waned across the summer. Caribou reduced their use of habitat within 5 km of development during the calving period, within 2 km during the post-calving period, and within 1 km during the mosquito harassment period, areas which were predicted to overlap 12%, 15% and 17% of important calving, post-calving, and mosquito habitat areas, respectively. During the calving period, the indirect effects we observed were similar to those observed in past research, whereas during the post-calving and mosquito periods, we detected avoidance responses which had not been previously reported. These findings corroborate a growing body of evidence suggesting that habituation to industrial development in Arctic caribou is likely to be weak or absent, and emphasizes the value of minimizing the footprint of infrastructure within important seasonal habitat areas to reduce behavioral impacts to barren-ground caribou.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Evaluation of maternal penning to improve calf survival in the Chisana Caribou Herd

Predation is a major limiting factor for most small sedentary caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ) populations, particularly those that are threatened or endangered across the southern extent of the species’ range. Thus, reducing predation impacts is often a management goal for improving the status of small caribou populations, and lethal predator removal is the primary approach that has been applied. Given that predator control programs are often contentious, other management options that can garner broader public acceptance need to be considered. Substantial calf losses to predation in the few weeks following birth are common for these small caribou populations. Therefore, we employed a novel experimental approach of maternal penning with the goal of reducing early calf mortality in the Chisana Caribou Herd, a declining population in southwest Yukon and adjacent Alaska thought to number around 300 individuals. Maternal penning entailed temporarily holding pregnant females on their native range in a large pen secure from predators from late March through the initial weeks of calf rearing to mid‐June. During 2003–2006, we conducted 4 annual penning trials with 17–50 pregnant females each year ( n = 146 total), assessed survival of calves born in the pens, and evaluated survival and nutritional effects of penning for females that were held. We also investigated the herd's population dynamics during 2003–2008 to determine effects of maternal penning on calf recruitment and population growth. In addition to information gained during maternal penning, we determined natality and survival patterns via radiotelemetry, conducted autumn age‐sex composition surveys each year, and censused the population in mid‐October 2003, 2005, and 2007. Based on our penning trials and demographic investigations, we used simulation models to evaluate the effects of maternal penning relative to a population's inherent growth rate (finite rate of increase [λ] without maternal penning) and penning effort (proportion of calves born in penning) to provide perspective on utility of this approach for improving the status of small imperiled caribou populations. Pregnant females held in maternal penning tolerated captivity well in that they exhibited positive nutritional responses to ad libitum feed we provided and higher survival than free‐ranging females (0.993 and 0.951 for penned and free‐ranging females, respectively). Survival of pen calves from birth to mid‐June was substantially higher than that of free‐ranging calves ( = 0.950 and 0.376, respectively). This initial period accounted for 76% of the annual calf mortality in the free‐ranging population. Pen‐born calves maintained their survival advantage over wild‐born calves to the end of their first year ( = 0.575 and 0.192, respectively) during years penning occurred. Females in the Chisana Herd were highly productive with 57% producing their first offspring at 2 years of age, and annual natality rates averaging 0.842 calves/female ≥2 years old. Age‐specific natality rates exceeded 0.900 for 4–9‐year‐olds, then exhibited senescent decline to 0.467 by 19 years old. Annual survival of free‐ranging adult females and calves averaged 0.892 and 0.184, respectively, over all study years; both were reduced during 2004 because of poor winter survival. We noted reduced nutritional condition of caribou late that winter in that females we captured were lighter than in other years and produced lighter calves. We suspect that the reduced survival during winter 2004 and the observed nutritional characteristics resulted from adverse snow conditions in combination with effects of the extreme drought experienced the previous summer. Age‐specific survival of adult females was ≥0.900 through 10 years of age, then declined with age. The Chisana Herd numbered 720 caribou in mid‐October 2003, or more than twice that estimated prior to initiating maternal penning, and increased to 766 caribou by mid‐October 2007. We calculated that penning added 54.2 yearling recruits, or 40% of calves released from penning. Based on the maternal penning results and the population's vital rates, we determined that the herd would have been stable during 2003–2007 at about 713 caribou without maternal penning; thus, the increase in herd size we observed resulted from maternal penning and was equivalent to the estimate of additional yearling recruits. The improvement in the population trend invoked by maternal penning was limited by the larger than expected population size and resulting low penning effort ( = 11% of calves born in pen). Our simulations corroborated that maternal penning increased population size by the number of additional recruits provided, even at low penning effort, for inherently stable populations. As the inherent rate of increase dropped below λ = 1.000, more of the additional recruits from penning were needed to offset the downward population inertia, thus requiring increased penning effort to reach stability. For populations declining at λ < 0.890, stability could not be achieved with 100% penning effort given the vital rates in our models. Maternal penning in its limited application to date has proven to be broadly popular as a nonlethal management action aimed at reducing initial calf mortality from predation in small caribou populations. However, based on the Chisana program and 3 subsequent efforts elsewhere, improvement in population trends have been modest at best and come at a high financial cost. Given the necessity of maximizing penning effort, maternal penning may have a role in addressing conservation challenges for some small caribou populations that are stable or slowly declining, but its application should be primarily driven by objective assessment of the likelihood of improving population trends rather than popularity relative to other management options.

Wrangell‐St. Elias National Park and Preserve, Klu↗

USGS2018

NDVI exhibits mixed success in predicting spatiotemporal variation in caribou summer forage quality and quantity

The satellite‐derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is commonly used by researchers and managers to represent ungulate forage conditions in landscapes across the globe, despite limited information about how it compares to empirical measurements of forage quality and quantity. The application of NDVI as a forage metric is particularly appealing for studying migratory caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ) in remote Arctic ecosystems, where field assessments are logistically and financially prohibitive, and climate‐mediated changes in vegetation have been hypothesized to influence population declines. To determine the utility of NDVI for adequately representing caribou forage conditions, we compared NDVI derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery to empirical measures of caribou forage biomass, nitrogen, digestible nitrogen, and digestible energy within the summer range of the Central Arctic Caribou Herd on the North Slope of Alaska. Specifically, we determined the strength of forage–NDVI relationships at the start of the growing season and across the summer, assessed the efficacy of NDVI variables for modeling spatiotemporal variation in field measurements of different forage components, and used long‐term MODIS data to estimate temporal changes in forage between 2000 and 2016. We found that NDVI values were weakly correlated with caribou forage quality at the start of the growing season and throughout the summer. Although linear models of forage–NDVI relationships performed poorly, NDVI variables (NDVI and the number of days from when NDVI reached its maximum value) were useful for modeling spatiotemporal variation in empirical measurements of forage components across the growing season, but only when we incorporated nonlinear forage–NDVI relationships and other habitat covariates. Phenological advances in the date of peak NDVI were associated with significant changes in forage conditions, particularly nitrogen, which exhibited earlier seasonal declines. Using long‐term MODIS data, predicted values of forage nitrogen declined between 2000 and 2016, driven by exceedingly low values in 2014 and 2015. Given our results, we caution the application of NDVI as a general (linear) proxy of caribou forage conditions across the growing season, and encourage practitioners to use NDVI variables to model spatiotemporal variation in specific forage conditions from empirical field data, accounting for nonlinear forage–NDVI relationships.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Summary of wildlife-related research on the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, 2002–17

We summarize recent (2002–17) publicly available information from studies within the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge as well as terrestrial and coastal ecosystems elsewhere on the Arctic Coastal Plain that are relevant to the 1002 Area. This report provides an update on earlier research summaries on caribou (Rangifer tarandus), forage quality and quantity, polar bears (Ursus maritimus), muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus), and snow geese (Chen caerulescens). We also provide information on new research related to climate, migratory birds, permafrost, coastal erosion, coastal lagoons, fish, water resources, and potential effects of industrial disturbance on wildlife. From this literature review, we noted evidence for change in the status of some wildlife and their habitats, and the lack of change for others. In the 1002 Area, muskox numbers have decreased and the Porcupine Caribou Herd has exhibited variation in use of the area during the calving season. Polar bears are now more common on shore in summer and fall because of declines in sea ice in the Beaufort Sea. In a study spanning 25 years, there were no significant changes in vegetation quality and quantity, soil conditions, or permafrost thaw in the coastal plain of the 1002 Area. Based on studies from the central Arctic Coastal Plain, there are persistent and emerging uncertainties about the long-term effects of energy development for caribou. In contrast, recent studies that examined direct and indirect effects of industrial activities and infrastructure on birds in the central Arctic Coastal Plain found little effect for the species and disturbances examined, except for the possibility of increased predator activity near human developments.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Survey of Arctic Alaskan wildlife for influenza A antibodies: Limited evidence for exposure of mammals

Influenza A viruses (IAVs) are maintained in wild waterbirds and have the potential to infect a broad range of species, including wild mammals. The Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska supports a diverse suite of species, including waterfowl that are common hosts of IAVs. Mammals co-occur with geese and other migratory waterbirds during the summer breeding season, providing a plausible mechanism for interclass transmission of IAVs. To estimate IAV seroprevalence and identify the subtypes to which geese, loons, Arctic foxes ( Vulpes lagopus ), caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ), and polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are potentially exposed, we used a blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (bELISA) and a hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay to screen for antibodies to IAVs in samples collected during spring and summer of 2012–16. Apparent IAV seroprevalence using the bELISA was 50.7% in geese (range by species: 46.1–52.8%), 9.2% in loons, (range by species: 3.4–20.0%), and 0.4% in Arctic foxes. We found no evidence for exposure to IAVs in polar bears or caribou by either assay. Among geese, we estimated detection probability from replicate bELISA analyses to be 0.92 and also found good concordance (>85%) between results from bELISA and HI assays, which identified antibodies reactive to H1, H6, and H9 subtype IAVs. In contrast, the HI assay detected antibodies in only one of seven loon samples that were positive by bELISA; that sample had low titers to both H4 and H5 IAV subtypes. Our results provide evidence that a relatively high proportion of waterbirds breeding on the Arctic Coastal Plain are exposed to IAVs, although it is unknown whether such exposure occurs locally or on staging or wintering grounds. In contrast, seroprevalence of IAVs in concomitant mammals is apparently low.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Advancing the match-mismatch framework for large herbivores in the Arctic: Evaluating the evidence for a trophic mismatch in caribou

Climate-induced shifts in plant phenology may adversely affect animals that cannot or do not shift the timing of their reproductive cycle. The realized effect of potential trophic “mismatches” between a consumer and its food varies with the degree to which species rely on dietary income and stored capital. Large Arctic herbivores rely heavily on maternal capital to reproduce and give birth near the onset of the growing season but are they vulnerable to trophic mismatch? We evaluated the long-term changes in the temperatures and characteristics of the growing seasons (1970–2013), and compared growing conditions and dynamics of forage quality for caribou at peak parturition, peak lactation, and peak forage biomass, and plant senescence between two distinct time periods over 36 years (1977 and 2011–13). Despite advanced thaw dates (7−12 days earlier), increased growing season lengths (15−21 days longer), and consistent parturition dates, we found no decline in forage quality and therefore no evidence within this dataset for a trophic mismatch at peak parturition or peak lactation from 1977 to 2011–13. In Arctic ungulates that use stored capital for reproduction, reproductive demands are largely met by body stores deposited in the previous summer and autumn, which reduces potential adverse effects of any mismatch between food availability and timing of parturition. Climate-induced effects on forages growing in the summer and autumn ranges, however, do correspond with the demands of female caribou and their offspring to gain mass for the next reproductive cycle and winter. Therefore, we suggest the window of time to examine the match-mismatch framework in Arctic ungulates is not at parturition but in late summer-autumn, where the multiplier effects of small changes in forage quality are amplified by forage abundance, peak forage intake, and resultant mass gains in mother-offspring pairs.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Bacterial genomics reveal the complex epidemiology of an emerging pathogen in arctic and boreal ungulates

Northern ecosystems are currently experiencing unprecedented ecological change, largely driven by a rapidly changing climate. Pathogen range expansion, and emergence and altered patterns of infectious disease, are increasingly reported in wildlife at high latitudes. Understanding the causes and consequences of shifting pathogen diversity and host-pathogen interactions in these ecosystems is important for wildlife conservation, and for indigenous populations that depend on wildlife. Among the key questions are whether disease events are associated with endemic or recently introduced pathogens, and whether emerging strains are spreading throughout the region. In this study, we used a phylogenomic approach to address these questions of pathogen endemicity and spread for Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae , an opportunistic multi-host bacterial pathogen associated with recent mortalities in arctic and boreal ungulate populations in North America. We isolated E. rhusiopathiae from carcasses associated with large-scale die-offs of muskoxen in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and from contemporaneous mortality events and/or population declines among muskoxen in northwestern Alaska and caribou and moose in western Canada. Bacterial genomic diversity differed markedly among these locations; minimal divergence was present among isolates from muskoxen in the Canadian Arctic, while in caribou and moose populations, strains from highly divergent clades were isolated from the same location, or even from within a single carcass. These results indicate that mortalities among northern ungulates are not associated with a single emerging strain of E. rhusiopathiae , and that alternate hypotheses need to be explored. Our study illustrates the value and limitations of bacterial genomic data for discriminating between ecological hypotheses of disease emergence, and highlights the importance of studying emerging pathogens within the broader context of environmental and host factors.

Frontiers in Microbiology↗

USGS2016

Summer habitat selection by Dall’s sheep in Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve, Alaska

Sexual segregation occurs frequently in sexually dimorphic species, and it may be influenced by differential habitat requirements between sexes or by social or evolutionary mechanisms that maintain separation of sexes regardless of habitat selection. Understanding the degree of sex-specific habitat specialization is important for management of wildlife populations and the design of monitoring and research programs. Using mid-summer aerial survey data for Dall’s sheep ( Ovis dalli dalli ) in southern Alaska during 1983–2011, we assessed differences in summer habitat selection by sex and reproductive status at the landscape scale in Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve (WRST). Males and females were highly segregated socially, as were females with and without young. Resource selection function (RSF) models containing rugged terrain, intermediate values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and open landcover types best explained resource selection by each sex, female reproductive classes, and all sheep combined. For male and all female models, most coefficients were similar, suggesting little difference in summer habitat selection between sexes at the landscape scale. A combined RSF model therefore may be used to predict the relative probability of resource selection by Dall’s sheep in WRST regardless of sex or reproductive status.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Identification of landscape features influencing gene flow: How useful are habitat selection models?

Understanding how dispersal patterns are influenced by landscape heterogeneity is critical for modeling species connectivity. Resource selection function (RSF) models are increasingly used in landscape genetics approaches. However, because the ecological factors that drive habitat selection may be different from those influencing dispersal and gene flow, it is important to consider explicit assumptions and spatial scales of measurement. We calculated pairwise genetic distance among 301 Dall's sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) in southcentral Alaska using an intensive noninvasive sampling effort and 15 microsatellite loci. We used multiple regression of distance matrices to assess the correlation of pairwise genetic distance and landscape resistance derived from an RSF, and combinations of landscape features hypothesized to influence dispersal. Dall's sheep gene flow was positively correlated with steep slopes, moderate peak normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI), and open land cover. Whereas RSF covariates were significant in predicting genetic distance, the RSF model itself was not significantly correlated with Dall's sheep gene flow, suggesting that certain habitat features important during summer (rugged terrain, mid-range elevation) were not influential to effective dispersal. This work underscores that consideration of both habitat selection and landscape genetics models may be useful in developing management strategies to both meet the immediate survival of a species and allow for long-term genetic connectivity.

Evolutionary Applications↗

USGS2016

Range expansion of moose in arctic Alaska linked to warming and increased shrub habitat

Twentieth century warming has increased vegetation productivity and shrub cover across northern tundra and treeline regions, but effects on terrestrial wildlife have not been demonstrated on a comparable scale. During this period, Alaskan moose ( Alces alces gigas ) extended their range from the boreal forest into tundra riparian shrub habitat; similar extensions have been observed in Canada ( A . a . andersoni ) and Eurasia ( A . a . alces ). Northern moose distribution is thought to be limited by forage availability above the snow in late winter, so the observed increase in shrub habitat could be causing the northward moose establishment, but a previous hypothesis suggested that hunting cessation triggered moose establishment. Here, we use recent changes in shrub cover and empirical relationships between shrub height and growing season temperature to estimate available moose habitat in Arctic Alaska c. 1860. We estimate that riparian shrubs were approximately 1.1 m tall c. 1860, greatly reducing the available forage above the snowpack, compared to 2 m tall in 2009. We believe that increases in riparian shrub habitat after 1860 allowed moose to colonize tundra regions of Alaska hundreds of kilometers north and west of previous distribution limits. The northern shift in the distribution of moose, like that of snowshoe hares, has been in response to the spread of their shrub habitat in the Arctic, but at the same time, herbivores have likely had pronounced impacts on the structure and function of these shrub communities. These northward range shifts are a bellwether for other boreal species and their associated predators.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Estimating demographic parameters using a combination of known-fate and open N -mixture models

Accurate estimates of demographic parameters are required to infer appropriate ecological relationships and inform management actions. Known-fate data from marked individuals are commonly used to estimate survival rates, whereas N-mixture models use count data from unmarked individuals to estimate multiple demographic parameters. However, a joint approach combining the strengths of both analytical tools has not been developed. Here we develop an integrated model combining known-fate and open N-mixture models, allowing the estimation of detection probability, recruitment, and the joint estimation of survival. We demonstrate our approach through both simulations and an applied example using four years of known-fate and pack count data for wolves (Canis lupus). Simulation results indicated that the integrated model reliably recovered parameters with no evidence of bias, and survival estimates were more precise under the joint model. Results from the applied example indicated that the marked sample of wolves was biased toward individuals with higher apparent survival rates than the unmarked pack mates, suggesting that joint estimates may be more representative of the overall population. Our integrated model is a practical approach for reducing bias while increasing precision and the amount of information gained from mark–resight data sets. We provide implementations in both the BUGS language and an R package.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Environmental and physiological influences to isotopic ratios of N and protein status in a montane ungulate in winter

Winter severity can influence large herbivore populations through a reduction in maternal proteins available for reproduction. Nitrogen (N) isotopes in blood fractions can be used to track the use of body proteins in northern and montane ungulates. We studied 113 adult female caribou for 13 years throughout a series of severe winters that reduced population size and offspring mass. After these severe winters, offspring mass increased but the size of the population remained low. We devised a conceptual model for routing of isotopic N in blood in the context of the severe environmental conditions experienced by this population. We measured δ 15 N in three blood fractions and predicted the relative mobilization of dietary and body proteins. The δ 15 N of the body protein pool varied by 4‰ and 46% of the variance was associated with year. Annual variation in δ 15 N of body protein likely reflected the fall/early winter diet and winter locations, yet 15% of the isotopic variation in amino acid N was due to body proteins. Consistent isotopic differences among blood N pools indicated that animals tolerated fluxes in diet and body stores. Conservation of body protein in caribou is the result of active exchange among diet and body N pools. Adult females were robust to historically severe winter conditions and prioritized body condition and survival over early investment in offspring. For a vagile ungulate residing at low densities in a predator-rich environment, protein restrictions in winter may not be the primary limiting factor for reproduction.

Alaska↗