Geology topics

Laura M. Thompson

Publications and source records attributed to Laura M. Thompson.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

At the leading edge: Advancing and bridging the science and management of range-shifting species

Climate-mediated shifts in species distributions are reshaping ecosystems worldwide, creating major challenges for conservation and resource management. These range shifts have far-reaching ecological and socio-economic consequences, requiring managers to address complex ecological dynamics while navigating diverse regulatory and value systems. Despite growing attention, key gaps remain in supporting management, from improved understanding of the mechanisms of range shifts, to evaluating the effectiveness of climate adaptation strategies, and tailoring science to the institutional and social contexts of decision-making. Central challenges include scaling processes across space, time, and organizational levels, and reconciling mismatches between biogeographical and management scales. Progress will depend on more comprehensive datasets to assess outcomes across taxa and regions, stronger cross-jurisdictional cooperation, and decision frameworks that integrate uncertainty alongside multiple value systems. Addressing these gaps is essential to make research more actionable and to enable successful management of species redistribution.

BioScience↗

USGS2025

Evaluating the central–marginal hypothesis: Introgression and genetic variation at the trailing edge of Quercus bicolor

The central–marginal hypothesis (CMH) predicts reduced genetic diversity and increased differentiation in range-edge populations due to ecological marginality and limited gene flow. Deviations from this pattern, however, can result from historical demographic processes, variation in reproductive strategies or interspecific hybridization. The genus Quercus , known for hybridization and long-distance pollination, offers an excellent model to examine the spatial patterns of genetic diversity, structure and introgression across species distributions. Here, we investigate these dynamics in Quercus bicolor Willd., a widespread eastern North American oak. Using RADseq, we genotyped 142 individuals from 12 sites at the fragmented trailing range edge and nine sites from the range core. To detect introgression, we incorporated reference data from six sympatric white oak species. We reveal extensive introgression, particularly from Q. lyrata Walt., in nearly all southern edge populations, but none in core populations despite sympatry with closely related congeners. Southern populations also showed increased genetic structure and differentiation, but not reduced diversity or increased inbreeding, even when only examining non-admixed individuals. Regression analyses reveal relationships between introgressed ancestry and heterozygosity, inbreeding and differentiation, indicating that introgression may buffer range-edge populations against genetic erosion by introducing novel alleles. Hindcast, current and forecast ecological niche models demonstrate temporally changing degrees of overlap between the geographic range of Q. lyrata and Q. bicolor and suggest higher hybridization potential in the future. These findings offer mixed support for the CMH while underscoring the evolutionary relevance of introgression in shaping genetic landscapes at range margins with significant implications for conservation.

Molecular Ecology↗

USGS2025

RAD (Resist-Accept-Direct) switch points and triggers for adaptation planning

Climate change is transforming ecosystems globally. The Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework has gained traction within many natural resource management institutions to help consider the decision space in response to this transformation. Because RAD helps manage for directional change, RAD choices entail considering which RAD pathway to implement and for how long. For example, one may accept a slowly changing ecosystem, but at a certain point, decide to begin resisting or directing the change an ecosystem is experiencing. Alternatively, one may begin resisting an ecosystem transformation, but ultimately realize resistance is no longer feasible based on cost or efficacy. These choices are challenging and encompass broad domains of cultural, ecological, financial, organizational, public, regulatory, and technological considerations to determine when to switch RAD pathways. We introduce the concepts of RAD switch points and triggers to help support these decision processes. We illustrate these concepts using case studies on walleye ( Sander vitreus ) stocking decisions in Wisconsin, wildfire response in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, and bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) management in Oregon, USA. Synthesizing across these examples, we delineate key points for decision makers as they (iteratively) reevaluate among the RAD pathways as conditions continue to change.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2025

Scent detection dogs detect a species of hard tick, Dermacentor albipictus, with comparable accuracy and efficiency to traditional tick drag surveys

Background Accurate surveillance data are critical for addressing tick and tick-borne pathogen risk to human and animal health. Current surveillance methods for detecting invading or expanding tick species are limited in their ability to scale efficiently to state or national levels. In this study we explored the potential use of scent detection dogs to assist field surveys for a hard tick species: Dermacentor albipictus . Methods We used a series of indoor and in situ training simulations to teach scent detection dogs to recognize D. albipictus scent, distinguish tick scent from associated vegetation, and develop a cautious search pattern. After training, we deployed both a scent detection dog survey team and a human-only survey team on transect and surveillance plot surveys then compared the detection rates and efficiency of both methods. Results Scent detection dogs required more time and money to train on field surveys but were comparable to traditional tick drags when accounting for cost per unit area surveyed. There was a lack of agreement on positive (ticks present) versus negative (ticks not present) sites between the two methods, implying that neither method is particularly reliable at detecting D. albipictus . Conclusions Estimating detection bias and false negative rates for tick surveillance methods such as tick drags will be important for accurately evaluating tick-borne disease risk across space and into the future. We found scent detection dogs to be a reasonable alternative sampling approach to consider when ticks are at low abundance or patchily distributed such as during tick range expansion or novel invasions. Scent detection dogs may also be useful for sampling for ticks in areas or along surfaces that are difficult to sample with the traditional tick drag technique like at ports of entry or livestock competitions.

Wyoming↗

USGS2023

Reimagining large river management using the Resist–Accept–Direct (RAD) framework in the Upper Mississippi River

Background Large-river decision-makers are charged with maintaining diverse ecosystem services through unprecedented social-ecological transformations as climate change and other global stressors intensify. The interconnected, dendritic habitats of rivers, which often demarcate jurisdictional boundaries, generate complex management challenges. Here, we explore how the Resist–Accept–Direct (RAD) framework may enhance large-river management by promoting coordinated and deliberate responses to social-ecological trajectories of change. The RAD framework identifies the full decision space of potential management approaches, wherein managers may resist change to maintain historical conditions, accept change toward different conditions, or direct change to a specified future with novel conditions. In the Upper Mississippi River System, managers are facing social-ecological transformations from more frequent and extreme high-water events. We illustrate how RAD-informed basin-, reach-, and site-scale decisions could: (1) provide cross-spatial scale framing; (2) open the entire decision space of potential management approaches; and (3) enhance coordinated inter-jurisdictional management in response to the trajectory of the Upper Mississippi River hydrograph. Results The RAD framework helps identify plausible long-term trajectories in different reaches (or subbasins) of the river and how the associated social-ecological transformations could be managed by altering site-scale conditions. Strategic reach-scale objectives may reprioritize how, where, and when site conditions could be altered to contribute to the basin goal, given the basin’s plausible trajectories of change (e.g., by coordinating action across sites to alter habitat connectivity, diversity, and redundancy in the river mosaic). Conclusions When faced with long-term systemic transformations (e.g., > 50 years), the RAD framework helps explicitly consider whether or when the basin vision or goals may no longer be achievable, and direct options may open yet unconsidered potential for the basin. Embedding the RAD framework in hierarchical decision-making clarifies that the selection of actions in space and time should be derived from basin-wide goals and reach-scale objectives to ensure that site-scale actions contribute effectively to the larger river habitat mosaic. Embedding the RAD framework in large-river decisions can provide the necessary conduit to link flexibility and innovation at the site scale with stability at larger scales for adaptive governance of changing social-ecological systems.

Upper Mississippi River↗

USGS2023

A brave new world: Managing for biodiversity conservation under ecosystem transformation

Traditional conservation practices have primarily relied on maintaining biodiversity by preserving species and habitats in place. Many regions are experiencing unprecedented environmental conditions, shifts in species distribution and habitats, and high turnover in species composition, resulting in ecological transformation. Natural resource managers have lacked tools for identifying and selecting strategies to manage ecosystem transformation. A recently formalized decision support framework provides a way for managers to resist, accept, or direct (RAD) the trajectory of change. We begin by identifying how historical conservation practices are built into the RAD framework. Next, we describe how RAD can be used to implement climate change adaptation actions, using examples from the Mojave Desert to provide ecological context. Third, we discuss how the RAD framework can assist with the creation of conservation portfolios, facilitating the maintenance of overall biodiversity across a landscape. Preserving species assemblages in their current state, or restoring them to historical conditions, will not always be possible, and RAD allows for explicit deliberation about when and where to prioritize scarce resources. We conclude with a set of guidelines for conservation practitioners or managers moving forward. Although operating under an increasingly uncertain future is daunting, managers can utilize RAD to conserve biodiversity and effectively handle ecosystem transformation.

Land↗

USGS2023

Climate change and the global redistribution of biodiversity: Substantial variation in empirical support for expected range shifts

Background Among the most widely predicted climate change-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution to track their climate niches. A series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged in the scientific literature suggesting species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in response to rising temperatures associated with climate change. Yet, many species are not demonstrating range shifts consistent with these expectations. Here, we evaluate the impact of anthropogenic climate change (specifically, changes in temperature and precipitation) on species’ ranges, and assess whether expected range shifts are supported by the body of empirical evidence. Methods We conducted a Systematic Review, searching online databases and search engines in English. Studies were screened in a two-stage process (title/abstract review, followed by full-text review) to evaluate whether they met a list of eligibility criteria. Data coding, extraction, and study validity assessment was completed by a team of trained reviewers and each entry was validated by at least one secondary reviewer. We used logistic regression models to assess whether the direction of shift supported common range-shift expectations (i.e., shifts to higher latitudes and elevations, and deeper depths). We also estimated the magnitude of shifts for the subset of available range-shift data expressed in distance per time (i.e., km/decade). We accounted for methodological attributes at the study level as potential sources of variation. This allowed us to answer two questions: (1) are most species shifting in the direction we expect (i.e., each observation is assessed as support/fail to support our expectation); and (2) what is the average speed of range shifts? Review findings We found that less than half of all range-shift observations (46.60%) documented shifts towards higher latitudes, higher elevations, and greater marine depths, demonstrating significant variation in the empirical evidence for general range shift expectations. For the subset of studies looking at range shift rates, we found that species demonstrated significant average shifts towards higher latitudes (average = 11.8 km/dec) and higher elevations (average = 9 m/dec), although we failed to find significant evidence for shifts to greater marine depths. We found that methodological factors in individual range-shift studies had a significant impact on the reported direction and magnitude of shifts. Finally, we identified important variation across dimensions of range shifts (e.g., greater support for latitude and elevation shifts than depth), parameters (e.g., leading edge shifts faster than trailing edge for latitude), and taxonomic groups (e.g., faster latitudinal shifts for insects than plants). Conclusions Despite growing evidence that species are shifting their ranges in response to climate change, substantial variation exists in the extent to which definitively empirical observations confirm these expectations. Even though on average, rates of shift show significant movement to higher elevations and latitudes for many taxa, most species are not shifting in expected directions. Variation across dimensions and parameters of range shifts, as well as differences across taxonomic groups and variation driven by methodological factors, should be considered when assessing overall confidence in range-shift hypotheses. In order for managers to effectively plan for species redistribution, we need to better account for and predict which species will shift and by how much. The dataset produced for this analysis can be used for future research to explore additional hypotheses to better understand species range shifts.

Journal of Environmental Evidence↗

USGS2022

Winter severity affects occupancy of spring- and summer-breeding anurans across the eastern United States

Aim Climate change is an increasingly important driver of biodiversity loss. The ectothermic nature of amphibians may make them particularly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, adding to declines from other threats. While active season environmental conditions can influence growth and survival, effects of variation in winter conditions on population dynamics are less well-studied. Given that extreme winter temperatures can influence amphibian survival and fitness, we expected that increased winter severity—as measured by variability in winter temperatures and snow cover—would be associated with decreased occupancy, and that populations that experience more severe winters would have the largest sensitivities and show the greatest declines. Location Eastern United States. Time period 2001–2015. Major taxa studied Anurans. Methods We used large-scale citizen science data from the eastern half of the United States, a diverse biogeographic and climatic region, to assess how variation in winter severity influenced occupancy dynamics (i.e. presence or absence of species across sites and years) of 11 spring and summer breeding anuran species. Results Most species had increased occupancy in years with greater than average snow cover and warmer than average mean winter temperatures. Surprisingly, climatic conditions in winter affected occupancy dynamics of species with varying life history characteristics, including both spring and summer breeding species, those that overwinter under the soil, and those that overwinter in ponds and stream beds. For two wide-ranging species ( Lithobates catesbeianus and Lithobates clamitans ), colder winter temperatures reduced occupancy more at northern latitudes, while the association between days of snow cover and latitude was equivocal. Main conclusions As the climate continues to change, expected reductions in snowpack may reduce occupancy of already declining anuran populations, while milder winters may improve overwinter survival for some species. The contradictory impacts of temperature and snow cover illustrate the importance of considering multi-dimensional impacts of climate change on anuran populations.

Diversity and Distributions↗

USGS2021

Applying assessments of adaptive capacity to inform natural-resource management in a changing climate

Adaptive capacity (AC)—the ability of a species to cope with or accommodate climate change—is a critical determinant of species vulnerability. Using information on species’ AC in conservation planning is key to ensuring successful outcomes. We identified connections between a list of species’ attributes (e.g., traits, population metrics, and behaviors) that were recently proposed for assessing species’ AC and management actions that may enhance AC for species at risk of extinction. Management actions were identified based on evidence from the literature, a review of actions used in other climate adaptation guidance, and our collective experience in diverse fields of global-change ecology and climate adaptation. Selected management actions support the general AC pathways of persist in place or shift in space, in response to contemporary climate change. Some actions, such as genetic manipulations, can be used to directly alter the ability of species to cope with climate change, whereas other actions can indirectly enhance AC by addressing ecological or anthropogenic constraints on the expression of a species’ innate abilities to adapt. Ours is the first synthesis of potential management actions directly linked to AC. Focusing on AC attributes helps improve understanding of how and why aspects of climate are affecting organisms, as well as the mechanisms by which management interventions affect a species’ AC and climate change vulnerability. Adaptive-capacity-informed climate adaptation is needed to build connections among the causes of vulnerability, AC, and proposed management actions that can facilitate AC and reduce vulnerability in support of evolving conservation paradigms.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2021

RAD adaptive management for transforming ecosystems

Intensifying global change is propelling many ecosystems toward irreversible transformations. Natural resource managers face the complex task of conserving these important resources under unprecedented conditions and expanding uncertainty. As once familiar ecological conditions disappear, traditional management approaches that assume the future will reflect the past are becoming increasingly untenable. In the present article, we place adaptive management within the resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework to assist informed risk taking for transforming ecosystems. This approach empowers managers to use familiar techniques associated with adaptive management in the unfamiliar territory of ecosystem transformation. By providing a common lexicon, it gives decision makers agency to revisit objectives, consider new system trajectories, and discuss RAD strategies in relation to current system state and direction of change. Operationalizing RAD adaptive management requires periodic review and update of management actions and objectives; monitoring, experimentation, and pilot studies; and bet hedging to better identify and tolerate associated risks.

BioScience↗

USGS2020

What are the effects of climate variability and change on ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration in western North America? A systematic map protocol

Climate is an important driver of ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migratory behaviors, and can affect the growth, development, fecundity, dispersal, and demographic trends of populations. Changes in temperature and precipitation, and resulting shifts in plant phenology, winter severity, drought and wildfire conditions, invasive species distribution and abundance, predation, and disease have the potential to directly or indirectly affect ungulates. However, ungulate responses to climate variability and change are not uniform and vary by species and geography. Here, we present a systematic map protocol aiming to describe the abundance and distribution of evidence on the effects of climate variability and change on ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration in North America. This map will help to identify knowledge gaps and clusters of evidence, and can be used to inform future research directions and adaptive management strategies.

Environmental Evidence↗

USGS2020

Do empirical observations support commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses? A systematic review protocol

Background Among the most widely anticipated climate-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution in response to changing climate conditions. In particular, a series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged: species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in response to climate change, reflecting an underlying hypothesis that species will move to cooler locations to track spatial changes in the temperature of their current range. Yet, many species are not demonstrating range shifts consistent with these hypotheses. Resolving this discrepancy and providing effective explanations for the observed variability in species’ range shifts is urgently needed to help support a range of natural resource management decisions. Here, we propose a protocol to review the body of evidence for commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses at the species level focusing on observed latitudinal, longitudinal, elevational, and depth shifts in response to temperature and precipitation changes. We aim to answer the question: what is the impact of anthropogenic climate change (specifically changes in temperature and precipitation) on species ranges? Methods In this review protocol, we propose to conduct a systematic search of literature from internet databases and search engines in English. Articles will be screened in a two-stage process (title/abstract and full text) to evaluate whether they meet a list of eligibility criteria (e.g., presents species-level data, compares >1 time period). Initial data coding and extraction will be completed by four reviewers and checked by a secondary reviewer from among our co-authors. We will perform a formal meta-analysis to document estimated effect size using the subset of available range-shift data expressed in distance per time (e.g., km/decade). We will also use multinomial logistic regression models to assess the probability that species are shifting in a direction that supports our hypotheses (i.e. towards higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths). We will account for study methodology as a potential source of variation.

Environmental Evidence↗

USGS2020

Persist in place or shift in space? Evaluating the adaptive capacity of species to climate change

Assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change serves as the basis for climate‐adaptation planning and climate‐smart conservation, and typically involves an evaluation of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (AC). AC is a species’ ability to cope with or adjust to changing climatic conditions, and is the least understood and most inconsistently applied of these three factors. We propose an attribute‐based framework for evaluating the AC of species, identifying two general classes of adaptive responses: “persist in place” and “shift in space”. Persist‐in‐place attributes enable species to survive in situ, whereas the shift‐in‐space response emphasizes attributes that facilitate tracking of suitable bioclimatic conditions. We provide guidance for assessing AC attributes and demonstrate the framework's application for species with disparate life histories. Results illustrate the broad utility of this generalized framework for informing adaptation planning and guiding species conservation in a rapidly changing climate.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2020

Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States

Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity, explore linkages to important ecosystem services, and discuss associated challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. We find that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses. Responses by species and populations, combined with direct effects of climate change on ecosystems (including more extreme events), are resulting in widespread changes in productivity, species interactions, vulnerability to biological invasions, and other emergent properties. Collectively, these impacts alter the benefits and services that natural ecosystems can provide to society. Although not all impacts are negative, even positive changes can require costly societal adjustments. Natural resource managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies that consider historical and future outlooks to minimize costs over the long term. Many organizations are beginning to explore these approaches, but implementation is not yet prevalent or systematic across the nation.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2019

Climate change effects on deer and moose in the midwest

Climate change is an increasing concern for wildlife managers across the United States and Canada. Because climate change may alter populations and harvest dynamics of key species in the region, midwestern states have identified the effects of climate change on ungulates as a priority research area. We conducted a literature review of projected climate change in the Midwest and the potential effects on white‐tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) and moose ( Alces alces ). Warmer temperatures and decreasing snowpack in the region favor survival of white‐tailed deer. In contrast, moose may become physiologically stressed in response to warming, and increasing deer populations spreading disease will exacerbate the problem. Although there is some uncertainty about exactly how the climate will change, and to what degree, robust projections suggest that deer populations will increase in response to climate change and moose populations will decrease. Managers can begin preparing for these changes by proactively creating management plans that take this into account.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2018

Hypotheses from recent assessments of climate impacts to biodiversity and ecosystems in the United States

Climate change poses multiple threats to biodiversity, and has already caused demonstrable impacts. We summarize key results from a recent national assessment of observed climate change impacts to terrestrial, marine, and freshwater ecosystems in the United States, and place results in the context of commonly articulated hypotheses about ecosystem response to climate change for global implications. Specific impacts we consider include: range shifts; phenological shifts; phenotypic changes; primary production changes; biological invasions; and novel communities. Significant effort has been made recently to incorporate adaptation measures into land and water management at both national and international scales, but the scale of impacts and associated uncertainties pose challenges to existing management institutions. Using commonly articulated hypotheses about climate change, biodiversity, and ecosystem response can provide context for informed decisions at multiple scales and can help to provide a clearer understanding of the ecological and mechanistic linkages between climate change and biodiversity.

Book chapter↗

USGS2015

Summarizing components of U.S. Department of the Interior vulnerability assessments to focus climate adaptation planning

A secretarial order identified climate adaptation as a critical performance objective for future management of U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) lands and resources in response to global change. Vulnerability assessments can inform climate adaptation planning by providing insight into what natural resources are most at risk and why. Three components of vulnerability—exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity—were defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as necessary for identifying climate adaptation strategies and actions. In 2011, the DOI requested all internal bureaus report ongoing or completed vulnerability assessments about a defined range of assessment targets or climate-related threats. Assessment targets were defined as freshwater resources, landscapes and wildlife habitat, native and cultural resources, and ocean health. Climate-related threats were defined as invasive species, wildfire risk, sea-level rise, and melting ice and permafrost. Four hundred and three projects were reported, but the original DOI survey did not specify that information be provided on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity collectively as part of the request, and it was unclear which projects adhered to the framework recommended by the IPCC. Therefore, the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center conducted a supplemental survey to determine how frequently each of the three vulnerability components was assessed. Information was categorized for 124 of the 403 reported projects (30.8 percent) based on the three vulnerability components, and it was discovered that exposure was the most common component assessed (87.9 percent), followed by sensitivity (68.5 percent) and adaptive capacity (33.1 percent). The majority of projects did not fully assess vulnerability; projects focused on landscapes/wildlife habitats and sea-level rise were among the minority that simultaneously addressed all three vulnerability components. To maintain consistency with the IPCC definition of vulnerability, DOI may want to focus initial climate adaptation planning only on the outcomes of studies that comprehensively address vulnerability as inclusive of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Although the present study results are preliminary and used an unstructured survey design, they illustrate the importance of a comprehensive and consistent vulnerability definition and of using information on vulnerability components in DOI surveys to ensure relevant data are used to identify adaptation options.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2013

Biodiversity in a changing climate: a synthesis of current and projected trends in the US

This paper provides a synthesis of the recent literature describing how global biodiversity is being affected by climate change and is projected to respond in the future. Current studies reinforce earlier findings of major climate-change-related impacts on biological systems and document new, more subtle after-effects. For example, many species are shifting their distributions and phenologies at faster rates than were recorded just a few years ago; however, responses are not uniform across species. Shifts have been idiosyncratic and in some cases counterintuitive, promoting new community compositions and altering biotic interactions. Although genetic diversity enhances species' potential to respond to variable conditions, climate change may outpace intrinsic adaptive capacities and increase the relative vulnerabilities of many organisms. Developing effective adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation will not only require flexible decision-making and management approaches that account for uncertainties in climate projections and ecological responses but will also necessitate coordinated monitoring efforts.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗