Geology topics

Kyle R. Aldinger

Publications and source records attributed to Kyle R. Aldinger.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Apparent annual survival of adult Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) may not differ by sex or region

Understanding range-wide demographic, spatial, and temporal variation in annual survival is essential for managing species of conservation concern. Multi-population models are useful tools for integrating diverse datasets, reducing biases, and deriving survival estimates across differing spatial scales. We conducted a range-wide, multi-population apparent annual survival analysis for a declining songbird, Vermivora chrysoptera (Golden-winged Warbler), using data from 18 sites across its breeding and nonbreeding grounds. This Nearctic-Neotropical migrant breeds in 2 disjunct regional populations, the Great Lakes and Appalachian Mountains, which are experiencing different rates of decline. We aimed to quantify regional-, site-, and sex-specific apparent annual survival estimates to identify geographic patterns or demographic factors influencing population declines. We used simulations to assess the precision of our estimates. Our models did not reveal a substantial difference in apparent annual survival between the Great Lakes (0.41, 95% credible interval (CrI):0.31–0.50) and the Appalachian regions (0.49, 95% CrI: 0.36–0.60), as CrIs overlapped. Site-specific estimates also showed no clear differences in apparent annual survival among sites representing both regional populations. Male apparent annual survival tended to be greater than female apparent annual survival in both regions, though CrI’s overlapped. Our study suggests demographic factors other than adult annual survival likely play a larger role in recent regional and range-wide population declines, such as productivity, juvenile/immature survival, or recruitment. Simulations indicate that improving recapture probability and study duration of datasets could lead to more precise apparent annual survival estimates. However, our model produced CrI ranges comparable to the most ideal data collection scenario, suggesting the lack of trends we found was not due to variability in our estimates. We stress the importance of addressing inherent biases in survival datasets and the need for standardized collaborative efforts to inform species conservation on a range-wide scale.

Ornithology↗

USGS2023

Exposure to risk factors experienced during migration is not associated with recent Vermivora warbler population trends

Context Understanding the factors limiting populations of animals is critical for effective conservation. Determining which factors limit populations of migratory species can be especially challenging because of their reliance on multiple, often geographically distant regions during their annual cycles. Objectives We investigated whether distribution-wide variation in recent breeding population trends was more strongly associated with exposure to risk factors experienced during migration (i.e., natural and anthropogenic threats often associated with increased mortality or carry-over effects) or factors associated with breeding and nonbreeding areas in golden-winged warblers ( Vermivora chrysoptera ) and blue-winged warblers ( V. cyanoptera ), two Nearctic-Neotropical migrants experiencing regionally variable population trends. Methods We used geolocator data from 85 Vermivora warblers ( n = 90 geolocator tracks) tracked from North American breeding locations and Central American nonbreeding locations from 2013 to 2017 to determine variation in space use among populations. We assessed whether differences in space use among populations of Vermivora warblers during migration were associated with exposure to migration risk-factors and whether increased relative exposure to migration risk factors was associated with population declines at regional and subregional scales. Results Regional and subregional populations of Vermivora warblers exhibited variation in space use and exposure to anthropogenic and natural risk-factors. However, we found no evidence that recent variation in population trends of Vermivora warblers was associated with risk-factors experienced by different populations during migration. Instead, factors associated with land cover-types in breeding and nonbreeding areas were more strongly associated with recent population trends. Conclusions Understanding how populations of migratory birds are affected by factors experienced during migration is critical for their conservation. We did not find evidence that variation in exposure to migration risk-factors is associated with recent regional or subregional variation in Vermivora warbler population trends. Consequently, our results suggest that efforts to reverse ongoing population declines of Vermivora warblers may be more effective if directed toward conservation actions targeting limiting factors within the breeding and nonbreeding periods versus those directed at conditions encountered during migration. We caution that geographic variation in projected land-use change may differentially affect areas used by different populations of Vermivora warblers during migration, posing a potential threat to these species in the future.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS2022

Change in climatically suitable breeding distributions reduces hybridization potential between Vermivora warblers

Aim Climate change is affecting the distribution of species and subsequent biotic interactions, including hybridization potential. The imperiled Golden-winged Warbler (GWWA) competes and hybridizes with the Blue-winged Warbler (BWWA), which may threaten the persistence of GWWA due to introgression. We examined how climate change is likely to alter the breeding distributions and potential for hybridization between GWWA and BWWA. Location North America. Methods We used GWWA and BWWA occurrence data to model climatically suitable conditions under historical and future climate scenarios. Models were parameterized with 13 bioclimatic variables and 3 topographic variables. Using ensemble modeling, we estimated historical and modern distributions, as well as a projected distribution under six future climate scenarios. We quantified breeding distribution area, the position of and amount of overlap between GWWA and BWWA distributions under each climate scenario. We summarized the top explanatory variables in our model to predict environmental parameters of the distributions under future climate scenarios relative to historical climate. Results GWWA and BWWA distributions are projected to substantially change under future climate scenarios. GWWA are projected to undergo the greatest change; the area of climatically suitable breeding season conditions is expected to shift north to northwest; and range contraction is predicted in five out of six future climate scenarios. Climatically suitable conditions for BWWA decreased in four of the six future climate scenarios, while the distribution is projected to shift east. A reduction in overlapping distributions for GWWA and BWWA is projected under all six future climate scenarios. Main Conclusions Climate change is expected to substantially alter the area of climatically suitable conditions for GWWA and BWWA, with the southern portion of the current breeding ranges likely to become climatically unsuitable. However, interactions between BWWA and GWWA are expected to decline with the decrease in overlapping habitat, which may reduce the risk of genetic introgression.

Diversity and Distributions↗

USGS2018

Population trends in Vermivora warblers are linked to strong migratory connectivity

Migratory species can experience limiting factors at different locations and during different periods of their annual cycle. In migratory birds, these factors may even occur in different hemispheres. Therefore, identifying the distribution of populations throughout their annual cycle (i.e., migratory connectivity) can reveal the complex ecological and evolutionary relationships that link species and ecosystems across the globe and illuminate where and how limiting factors influence population trends. A growing body of literature continues to identify species that exhibit weak connectivity wherein individuals from distinct breeding areas co-occur during the nonbreeding period. A detailed account of a broadly distributed species exhibiting strong migratory connectivity in which nonbreeding isolation of populations is associated with differential population trends remains undescribed. Here, we present a range-wide assessment of the nonbreeding distribution and migratory connectivity of two broadly dispersed Nearctic-Neotropical migratory songbirds. We used geolocators to track the movements of 70 Vermivora warblers from sites spanning their breeding distribution in eastern North America and identified links between breeding populations and nonbreeding areas. Unlike blue-winged warblers ( Vermivora cyanoptera ), breeding populations of golden-winged warblers ( Vermivora chrysoptera ) exhibited strong migratory connectivity, which was associated with historical trends in breeding populations: stable for populations that winter in Central America and declining for those that winter in northern South America.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2017

An evaluation and comparison of conservation guidelines for an at-risk migratory songbird

For at-risk wildlife species, it is important to consider conservation within the process of adaptive management. Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) are Neotropical migratory songbirds that are experiencing long-term population declines due in part to the loss of early-successional nesting habitat. Recently-developed Golden-winged Warbler habitat management guidelines are being implemented by USDA: Natural Resource Conservation Service (2014) and its partners through the Working Lands For Wildlife (WLFW) program. During 2012–2014, we studied the nesting ecology of Golden-winged Warblers in managed habitats of the eastern US that conformed to WLFW conservation practices. We evaluated five NRCS “management scenarios” with respect to nesting success and attainment of recommended nest site vegetation conditions outlined in the Golden-winged Warbler breeding habitat guidelines. Using estimates of territory density, pairing rate, nest survival, and clutch size, we also estimated fledgling productivity (number of fledglings/ha) for each management scenario. In general, Golden-winged Warbler nest survival declined as each breeding season advanced, but nest survival was similar across management scenarios. Within each management scenario, vegetation variables had little influence on nest survival. Still, percent Rubus cover and density of >2 m tall shrubs were relevant in some management scenarios. All five management scenarios rarely attained recommended levels of nest site vegetation conditions for Golden-winged, yet nest survival was high. Fledgling productivity estimates for each management scenario ranged from 2.1 to 8.6 fledglings/10 hectares. Our results indicate that targeted habitat management for Golden-winged Warblers using a variety of management techniques on private lands has the capability to yield high nest survival and fledgling productivity, and thus have the potential to contribute to the species recovery.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

USGS2017

Refined conservation strategies for Golden-winged Warblers in the West Virginia highlands with implications for the broader avian community

Golden-winged Warbler ( Vermivora chrysoptera ) populations in the Appalachian Mountains region of North America are imperiled, warranting species-specific conservation. However, management for Golden-winged Warblers can affect both early-successional and forest species, many of which are also declining in the region. We conducted point counts in sites representing a range of successional stages within the Golden-winged Warbler's breeding range in West Virginia, USA, during 2008–2015. We identified plausible models of Golden-winged Warbler density using covariates at 4 spatial scales representing annual dispersal (5-km radius), extraterritorial movement (1.5-km radius), intraterritorial movement (100-m radius), and local resource utilization (11.3-m radius). Golden-winged Warbler density peaked at an intermediate elevation at the 1.5-km radius scale, but was negatively associated with 100-m radius minimum elevation. Density was positively associated with 100-m radius shrubland cover. Southerly latitudes were associated with higher densities when modeled alone, but there was no association when controlling for other covariates. We then examined the relationship between covariates from these plausible models and avian community structure using canonical correspondence analysis to assess the value of Golden-winged Warbler conservation for the broader avian community. We identified 5 species likely to benefit from management for Golden-winged Warblers and 21 species likely to be affected positively or negatively to varying degrees depending on their affinity for early-successional vegetation communities. Golden-winged Warblers were plotted higher along the 100-m shrubland cover gradient than any other bird species, suggesting that they may be the most shrubland area–sensitive songbird in our study area. However, the species also requires heavily forested landscapes. Therefore, a species-specific conservation strategy that balances shrubland (patches of 9–13 ha in size, comprising 15% of the landscape) and contiguous forest area (≥75% of the landscape) could concurrently meet the needs of Golden-winged Warblers and the 26 other species identified.

West Virginia↗

USGS2016

Reproductive success and habitat characteristics of Golden-winged Warblers in high-elevation pasturelands

The Golden-winged Warbler ( Vermivora chrysoptera ) is one of the most rapidly declining vertebrate species in the Appalachian Mountains. It is the subject of extensive range-wide research and conservation action. However, little is known about this species' breeding ecology in high-elevation pasturelands, a breeding habitat with conservation potential considering the U.S. Natural Resource Conservation Service's Working Lands for Wildlife program targeting private lands in the Appalachian Mountains. We located 100 nests of Golden-winged Warblers in pastures in and around the Monongahela National Forest in West Virginia during 2008–2012. Daily nest survival rate (mean ± SE = 0.962 ± 0.006), clutch size (4.5 ± 0.1), and number of young fledged per nest attempt (2.0 ± 0.2) and successful nest (4.0 ± 0.1) fell within the range of values reported in other parts of the species' range and were not significantly affected by year or the presence/absence of cattle grazing. Classification tree analysis revealed that nests were in denser vegetation (≥52%) and closer to forest edges (<36.0 m) and shrubs (<7.0 cm) than random locations within the male's territory. Successful nests had significantly more woody cover (≥9%) within 1 m than failed nests. Our results suggest that cattle grazing at 1.2–2.4 ha of forage/animal unit with periodic mowing can create and maintain these characteristics without interfering with the nesting of Golden-winged Warblers. High-elevation pasturelands may provide a refuge for remaining populations of Golden-winged Warblers in this region.

Wilson Journal of Ornithology↗

USGS2016

Golden-winged Warbler nest-site habitat selection: Chapter 7

Avian habitat selection occurs at multiple spatial scales to incorporate life history requirements. Breeding habitat of Golden-winged Warblers ( Vermivora chrysoptera ) is characterized by largely forested landscapes containing natural or anthropogenic disturbance elements that maintain forest patches in early stages of succession. Breeding habitat occurs in a variety of settings, including shrub and forest swamps, regenerating forests following timber harvest, grazed pastures, and reclaimed mined lands. We identified structural components of nest sites for Golden-winged Warblers by measuring habitat characteristics across five states (North Carolina, New York, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and West Virginia) in the Appalachian breeding-distribution segment and two states (Minnesota and Wisconsin) in the Great Lakes breeding-distribution segment. We measured habitat characteristics at the nest-site scale with a series of nested plots characterizing herbaceous vegetation (grasses and forbs), woody shrubs and saplings, and overstory trees. We measured similar variables at paired random plots located 25–50 m from the nest within the same territory to evaluate selection. We used conditional logistical regression to identify which parameters were important in habitat selection and Simple Saddlepoint Approximation (SSA) to aid in management interpretation of identified parameters for each study site. Study site was an important determinant for which parameters were significant in nest-site selection, although selection for some parameters was consistent across sites. The amount of woody cover at the nest-site scale was consistently present in the top nest-site selection models across sites, although the direction of the relationship was not the same across all sites. We also identified grass, forb, woody cover, and vegetation density as important components of Golden-winged Warbler nest-site selection. Based on SSA, we identified vegetation thresholds to aid in designing habitat management prescriptions to promote creation or restoration of Golden-winged Warbler nesting habitat across the eastern portion of their breeding distribution.

Studies in Avian Biology↗

USGS2016

Space and habitat use by breeding Golden-winged Warblers in the central Appalachian Mountains

Spot-mapping, or recording locations of observed use by territorial songbirds, is often used to delineate core breeding territories. However, a recent radiotelemetry study in Minnesota found that male Golden-winged Warblers ( Vermivora chrysoptera ) occurring in high-density populations used resources outside their spot-mapped territories. We compared differences in space use and quantified vegetation characteristics in territories and home ranges of individual male Golden-winged Warblers that we monitored using both spot-mapping and radiotelemetry. Our study sites in Pennsylvania and West Virginia had lower population density than in Minnesota. We recorded 524 telemetry locations among 12 male Golden-winged Warblers in Pennsylvania and 488 telemetry locations among seven males in West Virginia. Telemetry-delineated home ranges (100% and 50% minimum convex polygons [MCPs]) were two to four times larger than spot-mapped territories. Spot-mapped territories had minimal overlap among individual males, but home ranges had extensive space-use overlap in both the number and amount of MCP overlap among several males. Forty percent of telemetry locations were outside of spot-mapped territories. Sapling abundance was greater in home ranges (mean 22.5 saplings ± 2.1 SE) than spot-mapped territories in Pennsylvania (11.8 ± 1.9). In managed pastures of West Virginia, tree abundance was greater in home ranges (7.3 trees ± 0.8) than spot-mapped territories (1.9 ± 0.6). More telemetry locations than spot-mapped locations occurred in forest in both states, and telemetry locations were closer to intact forested edges of shrublands than spot-mapped locations in West Virginia. On several occasions, we observed radiomarked individuals >200 m (maximum of 1.5 km) from their MCP spot-mapped territory boundaries. Why Golden-winged Warblers leave their spot-mapped territories is unknown, but our observations suggest foraging, forays for extra-pair mating, and reconnaissance for postbreeding movements as possible motives. Our results from areas with low Golden-winged Warbler territory densities are similar to patterns reported for a high-density population in Minnesota. Ultimately, spot-mapping alone does not accurately reflect space use of Golden-winged Warblers during the breeding season, nor does it characterize all cover types used even in areas with relatively low territory densities. Current conservation plans for Golden-winged Warblers that are based on habitat characteristics measured within spot-mapped territories or at the landscape scale may not adequately incorporate space use at intermediate spatial scales of clusters of territories or home ranges.

Studies in Avian Biology↗

USGS2015

Variables associated with detection probability, detection latency, and behavioral responses of Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera)

Detection probability during point counts and its associated variables are important considerations for bird population monitoring and have implications for conservation planning by influencing population estimates. During 2008–2009, we evaluated variables hypothesized to be associated with detection probability, detection latency, and behavioral responses of male Golden-winged Warblers in pastures in the Monongahela National Forest, West Virginia, USA. This is the first study of male Golden-winged Warbler detection probability, detection latency, or behavioral response based on point-count sampling with known territory locations and identities for all males. During 3-min passive point counts, detection probability decreased as distance to a male's territory and time since sunrise increased. During 3-min point counts with playback, detection probability decreased as distance to a male's territory increased, but remained constant as time since sunrise increased. Detection probability was greater when point counts included type 2 compared with type 1 song playback, particularly during the first 2 min of type 2 song playback. Golden-winged Warblers primarily use type 1 songs (often zee bee bee bee with a higher-pitched first note) in intersexual contexts and type 2 songs (strident, rapid stutter ending with a lower-pitched buzzy note) in intrasexual contexts. Distance to a male's territory, ordinal date, and song playback type were associated with the type of behavioral response to song playback. Overall, ~2 min of type 2 song playback may increase the efficacy of point counts for monitoring populations of Golden-winged Warblers by increasing the conspicuousness of males for visual identification and offsetting the consequences of surveying later in the morning. Because playback may interfere with the ability to detect distant males, it is important to follow playback with a period of passive listening. Our results indicate that even in relatively open pasture vegetation, detection probability of male Golden-winged Warblers is imperfect and highly variable.

The Condor↗

USGS2015

Variables associated with nest survival of Golden-winged Warblers ( Vermivora chrysoptera ) among vegetation communities commonly used for nesting

A mong shrubland- and young forest-nesting bird species in North America, Golden-winged Warblers ( Vermivora chrysoptera ) are one of the most rapidly declining partly because of limited nesting habitat. Creation and management of high quality vegetation communities used for nesting are needed to reduce declines. Thus, we examined whether common characteristics could be managed across much of the Golden-winged Warbler’s breeding range to increase daily survival rate (DSR) of nests. We monitored 388 nests on 62 sites throughout Minnesota, Wisconsin, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and West Virginia. We evaluated competing DSR models in spatial-temporal (dominant vegetation type, population segment, state, and year), intraseasonal (nest stage and time-within-season), and vegetation model suites. The best-supported DSR models among the three model suites suggested potential associations between daily survival rate of nests and state, time-within-season, percent grass and Rubus cover within 1 m of the nest, and distance to later successional forest edge. Overall, grass cover (negative association with DSR above 50%) and Rubus cover (DSR lowest at about 30%) within 1 m of the nest and distance to later successional forest edge (negative association with DSR) may represent common management targets across our states for increasing Golden-winged Warbler DSR, particularly in the Appalachian Mountains population segment. Context-specific adjustments to management strategies, such as in wetlands or areas of overlap with Blue-winged Warblers ( Vermivora cyanoptera ), may be necessary to increase DSR for Golden-winged Warblers.

Avian Conservation and Ecology↗