Geology topics

Kevin S. Kalasz

Publications and source records attributed to Kevin S. Kalasz.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2020

Resource allocation for coastal wetland management: Confronting uncertainty about sea level rise

Coastal wetlands are rich and diverse ecosystems with a wide variety of birdlife and other natural resources. Decision making for coastal wetland management is difficult given the complex nature of these ecological systems and the frequent need to meet multiple objectives for varied resources. Management challenges in the coastal zone are exacerbated by uncertainty about sea level rise and impacts on infrastructure, particularly the levees and structures which provide managers the ability to manipulate water levels in managed wetlands and create high quality habitat for birds and other wildlife. The most challenging decisions in coastal wetland management involve resource allocation for habitat manipulations and longer-term investments to maintain management control in wetlands that are increasingly compromised by sea level rise and increasing storm frequency and intensity associated with a changing climate. We used multi-criteria decision analysis to create a resource allocation framework for managed wetlands that identifies the most effective and efficient management strategies that are robust to uncertainty about sea level rise. The prototype framework includes a small number of managed wetlands, for which subject matter experts articulated potential management and restoration actions. The consequences of these actions were predicted using expert elicitation with the subject matter experts; furthermore, expert judgment was used to articulate expected outcomes with two hypotheses about the rate of sea level rise. We used a constrained optimization (integer linear programming) to find optimal resource allocation strategies given a range of budget constraints; we also used a Pareto efficiency analysis for a graphical solution to the problem if the exact budget constraint is not known. Finally, given the importance of preference weights in a multi-criteria decision analysis, we also evaluated sensitivity to objective weights. With this resource allocation framework, we showed how to identify optimal combinations of management and restoration actions to maximize benefits in terms of stated objectives. We show how multiple working hypotheses about sea level rise can be incorporated into decisions for coastal wetland management. Our resource allocation approach can be modified for a wide variety of natural resource management settings.

Book chapter↗

USGS2017

Post-breeding migration and connectivity of red knots in the Western Atlantic

Red knots ( Calidris canutus rufa ) have 3 distinct nonbreeding regions: 1 in the southeastern United States and Caribbean, another on the northeast coast of Brazil in the Maranhão region, and a third along the Patagonian coasts of Chile and Argentina. Effective conservation and recovery of this threatened long-distance migrant will require knowledge of population structure, migration ecology, and abundance and distribution throughout the annual cycle. We conducted a stopover population and biogeographic assessment of knots at the Altamaha River Delta, Georgia, an important stopover area in the southeastern United States. We estimated stopover population size and stopover duration during post-breeding migration in 2011 at the Altamaha study area using mark-resight data, and we inferred nonbreeding regions for this stopover population using stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen in feathers, and observations (sightings and captures) during boreal winter from across the hemisphere. With an integrated Bayesian analysis of all these data, we also estimated the number of birds in the southeastern United States and northern Brazil during boreal winter. For mark-resight analyses in Georgia, we made observations of marked individuals during 14 weeks from early August to early November 2011 and detected 814 individually marked birds. We used the Jolly-Seber mark-recapture model and estimated the southbound passage population at approximately 23,400 red knots. In ongoing studies elsewhere, isotope samples were collected from 175 (21%) of the 814 birds detected in our study, and ≥1 sighting or capture record during boreal winter was located in data repositories for 659 birds (81%). Isotopic signatures and boreal winter records indicate that the majority (82–96%) of the birds that stopped at the Altamaha Delta spend the boreal winter in the northern part of the nonbreeding range (southeast USA, Caribbean, and northern Brazil). Knots migrating to the southeastern United States, Caribbean, or Brazil remained on the Altamaha Delta for 42 days, whereas birds migrating to Tierra del Fuego remained only 21 days. Combining our estimate of the Altamaha stopover population size (23,400 birds) and the estimated proportion in the northern nonbreeding region (82–96%), we derived a minimum estimate of the number of knots in the southeastern United States, Caribbean, and northern South America during the boreal winter: approximately 20,800 knots, of which approximately 10,400 knots occupy the southeastern United States and 5,400 occupy Brazil. Our results provide additional evidence that coastal Georgia is an important migration area for red knots, and provide information about population structure and migratory connectivity that will be valuable for conservation planning.

Georgia↗

USGS2011

Demographic consequences of migratory stopover: Linking red knot survival to horseshoe crab spawning abundance

Understanding how events during one period of the annual cycle carry over to affect survival and other fitness components in other periods is essential to understanding migratory bird demography and conservation needs. Previous research has suggested that western Atlantic red knot ( Calidris canutus rufa ) populations are greatly affected by horseshoe crab ( Limulus polyphemus ) egg availability at Delaware Bay stopover sites during their spring northward migration. We present a mass‐based multistate, capture‐recapture/resighting model linking (1) red knot stopover mass gain to horseshoe crab spawning abundance and (2) subsequent apparent annual survival to mass state at the time of departure from the Delaware Bay stopover area. The model and analysis use capture‐recapture/resighting data with over 16,000 individual captures and 13,000 resightings collected in Delaware Bay over a 12 year period from 1997–2008, and the results are used to evaluate the central management hypothesis that red knot populations can be influenced by horseshoe crab harvest regulations as part of a larger adaptive management effort. Model selection statistics showed support for a positive relationship between horseshoe crab spawning abundance during the stopover and the probability of red knots gaining mass (parameter coefficient from the top model b̂ = 1.71, = 0.46). Our analyses also supported the link between red knot mass and apparent annual survival, although average estimates for the two mass classes differed only slightly. The addition of arctic snow depth as a covariate influencing apparent survival improved the fit of the data to the models (parameter coefficient from the top model b̂ = 0.50, = 0.08). Our results indicate that managing horseshoe crab resources in the Delaware Bay has the potential to improve red knot population status.

Delaware, New Jersey↗