Geology topics

Kevin M. Ringelman

Publications and source records attributed to Kevin M. Ringelman.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

An agent-based model to quantify energetics, movement and habitat selection of mid-continent mallards in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

The dynamics of wintering waterfowl populations at the landscape scale are the result of complex interactions of environmental, behavioral and energetic drivers. Agent-based models provide a method to directly link these factors in a spatially explicit framework and allow the emergence of patterns from the aggregation of individual agent actions. We adapted the Spatially-explicit Waterbird Agent-based Model Program (SWAMP), originally developed for waterfowl in central California, to simulate a basin-scale population of mallards ( A. platyrhynchos ) wintering in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley over a four-month period (November–February). Simulated agents move within the landscape, foraging on areas made available based on a probabilistic inundation status, and converting food resources to endogenous energy. The model uses a high-resolution map of eastern Arkansas waterfowl habitats and incorporates a hierarchical habitat selection system that enables mallards to relocate at increasing scales in response to changing food availability. We validated the performance of modeled mallard body condition and behavioral metrics under a range of environmental conditions against expected outcomes derived from empirical data and found that the simulation produced realistic representations of changes in flight distances, energy expenditure, lipid storage, and foraging habitat use in response to depleting food resources over time. We discuss the model's applicability as a tool to quantify waterfowl response to a range of environmental conditions and to evaluate scenarios of landscape composition and configuration in the context of waterfowl population management.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2022

The potential of semi-structured citizen science data as a supplement for conservation decision-making: Validating the performance of eBird against targeted avian monitoring efforts

Methods are being developed to capitalize on citizen science data for research and monitoring, but these data are rarely used within established decision-making frameworks of wildlife agencies. Citizen science data are often collected at higher resolution and extent than targeted monitoring programs, and may provide complementary information. Here, we demonstrate that carefully filtered semi-structured citizen science observations, when paired with targeted survey data, can produce ecological predictions at higher resolution and extent than targeted surveys alone, and both datasets can represent complementary aspects of species' ecology. We present case studies demonstrating how citizen science data can enhance or supplement decision-making of government and conservation organizations. First, we show how the continuous spatial coverage of citizen science projects, when coupled with targeted surveys, can improve estimates of metrics used by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in regulatory processes to estimate population size, and inform take limits of federally managed species nationwide. Second, we show that the spatial coverage of citizen science accommodates dynamic avian space use patterns during key times of the year, relative to standardized monitoring protocols carried out by the Illinois Natural History Survey. Lastly, we demonstrate that citizen science information can replicate estimates of migratory chronologies for the Illinois Natural History Survey and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for some waterfowl species, and in some contexts can supplement missing data on abundance. These findings illustrate the value of integrating validated information from semi-structured citizen science into the current evidence base used to justify, inform, and evaluate conservation decision-making.

California, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri↗

USGS2016

Spatiotemporal patterns of duck nest density and predation risk: a multi-scale analysis of 18 years and more than 10,000 nests

Many avian species are behaviorally-plastic in selecting nest sites, and may shift to new locations or habitats following an unsuccessful breeding attempt. If there is predictable spatial variation in predation risk, the process of many individuals using prior experience to adaptively change nest sites may scale up to create shifting patterns of nest density at a population level. We used 18 years of waterfowl nesting data to assess whether there were areas of consistently high or low predation risk, and whether low-risk areas increased, and high-risk areas decreased in nest density the following year. We created kernel density maps of successful and unsuccessful nests in consecutive years and found no correlation in predation risk and no evidence for adaptive shifts, although nest density was correlated between years. We also examined between-year correlations in nest density and nest success at three smaller spatial scales: individual nesting fields (10–28 ha), 16-ha grid cells and 4-ha grid cells. Here, results were similar across all scales: we found no evidence for year-to-year correlation in nest success but found strong evidence that nest density was correlated between years, and areas of high nest success increased in nest density the following year. Prior research in this system has demonstrated that areas of high nest density have higher nest success, and taken together, our results suggest that ducks may adaptively select nest sites based on the local density of conspecifics, rather than the physical location of last year's nest. In unpredictable environments, current cues, such as the presence of active conspecific nests, may be especially useful in selecting nest sites. The cues birds use to select breeding locations and successfully avoid predators deserve continued attention, especially in systems of conservation concern.

Oikos↗

USGS2015

Habitat edges have weak effects on duck nest survival at local spatial scales

Edge effects on nesting success have been documented in breeding birds in a variety of contexts, but there is still uncertainty in how edge type and spatial scale determine the magnitude and detectability of edge effects. Habitat edges are often viewed as predator corridors that surround or penetrate core habitat and increase the risk of predation for nearby nests. We studied the effects of three different types of potential predator corridors (main perimeter roads, field boundaries, and ATV trails within fields) on waterfowl nest survival in California. We measured the distance from duck nests to the nearest edge of each type, and used distance as a covariate in a logistic exposure analysis of nest survival. We found only weak evidence for edge effects due to predation. The best supported model of nest survival included all three distance categories, and while all coefficient estimates were positive (indicating that survival increased with distance from edge), 85% coefficient confidence intervals approached or bounded zero indicating an overall weak effect of habitat edges on nest success. We suggest that given the configuration of edges at our site, there may be few areas far enough from hard edges to be considered ‘core’ habitat, making edge effects on nest survival particularly difficult to detect.

Ardea↗

USGS2014

Adaptive nest clustering and density-dependent nest survival in dabbling ducks

Density-dependent population regulation is observed in many taxa, and understanding the mechanisms that generate density dependence is especially important for the conservation of heavily-managed species. In one such system, North American waterfowl, density dependence is often observed at continental scales, and nest predation has long been implicated as a key factor driving this pattern. However, despite extensive research on this topic, it remains unclear if and how nest density influences predation rates. Part of this confusion may have arisen because previous studies have studied density-dependent predation at relatively large spatial and temporal scales. Because the spatial distribution of nests changes throughout the season, which potentially influences predator behavior, nest survival may vary through time at relatively small spatial scales. As such, density-dependent nest predation might be more detectable at a spatially- and temporally-refined scale and this may provide new insights into nest site selection and predator foraging behavior. Here, we used three years of data on nest survival of two species of waterfowl, mallards and gadwall, to more fully explore the relationship between local nest clustering and nest survival. Throughout the season, we found that the distribution of nests was consistently clustered at small spatial scales (˜50–400 m), especially for mallard nests, and that this pattern was robust to yearly variation in nest density and the intensity of predation. We demonstrated further that local nest clustering had positive fitness consequences – nests with closer nearest neighbors were more likely to be successful, a result that is counter to the general assumption that nest predation rates increase with nest density.

California↗

USGS2011

Density-dependent nest predation in waterfowl: the relative importance of nest density versus nest dispersion

When nest predation levels are very high or very low, the absolute range of observable nest success is constrained (a floor/ceiling effect), and it may be more difficult to detect density-dependent nest predation. Density-dependent nest predation may be more detectable in years with moderate predation rates, simply because there can be a greater absolute difference in nest success between sites. To test this, we replicated a predation experiment 10 years after the original study, using both natural and artificial nests, comparing a year when overall rates of nest predation were high (2000) to a year with moderate nest predation (2010). We found no evidence for density-dependent predation on artificial nests in either year, indicating that nest predation is not density-dependent at the spatial scale of our experimental replicates (1-ha patches). Using nearest-neighbor distances as a measure of nest dispersion, we also found little evidence for “dispersion-dependent” predation on artificial nests. However, when we tested for dispersion-dependent predation using natural nests, we found that nest survival increased with shorter nearest-neighbor distances, and that neighboring nests were more likely to share the same nest fate than non-adjacent nests. Thus, at small spatial scales, density-dependence appears to operate in the opposite direction as predicted: closer nearest neighbors are more likely to be successful. We suggest that local nest dispersion, rather than larger-scale measures of nest density per se, may play a more important role in density-dependent nest predation.

Oecologia↗