Geology topics

Kenneth V. Rosenberg

Publications and source records attributed to Kenneth V. Rosenberg.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Methodology

Following the approach developed by Gregory and van Strien (2010), State of the Birds reports focus on composite summaries of population change for collections of species that share common primary habitat or taxonomic affinity. In this report, we provide composite indexes for habitat-obligate species as defined in earlier reports (Grassland, Aridland, Eastern Forest and Western Forest), for several taxonomic-based groups (Shorebirds, Waterbirds, Geese and Swans, Sea Ducks, and Dabbling/Diving Duck species), and for species on our Tipping Point list with adequate data. Lists of species included in each habitat-obligate group are presented as supplemental material at StateoftheBirds.org.

Report↗

USGS2022

Change in climatically suitable breeding distributions reduces hybridization potential between Vermivora warblers

Aim Climate change is affecting the distribution of species and subsequent biotic interactions, including hybridization potential. The imperiled Golden-winged Warbler (GWWA) competes and hybridizes with the Blue-winged Warbler (BWWA), which may threaten the persistence of GWWA due to introgression. We examined how climate change is likely to alter the breeding distributions and potential for hybridization between GWWA and BWWA. Location North America. Methods We used GWWA and BWWA occurrence data to model climatically suitable conditions under historical and future climate scenarios. Models were parameterized with 13 bioclimatic variables and 3 topographic variables. Using ensemble modeling, we estimated historical and modern distributions, as well as a projected distribution under six future climate scenarios. We quantified breeding distribution area, the position of and amount of overlap between GWWA and BWWA distributions under each climate scenario. We summarized the top explanatory variables in our model to predict environmental parameters of the distributions under future climate scenarios relative to historical climate. Results GWWA and BWWA distributions are projected to substantially change under future climate scenarios. GWWA are projected to undergo the greatest change; the area of climatically suitable breeding season conditions is expected to shift north to northwest; and range contraction is predicted in five out of six future climate scenarios. Climatically suitable conditions for BWWA decreased in four of the six future climate scenarios, while the distribution is projected to shift east. A reduction in overlapping distributions for GWWA and BWWA is projected under all six future climate scenarios. Main Conclusions Climate change is expected to substantially alter the area of climatically suitable conditions for GWWA and BWWA, with the southern portion of the current breeding ranges likely to become climatically unsuitable. However, interactions between BWWA and GWWA are expected to decline with the decrease in overlapping habitat, which may reduce the risk of genetic introgression.

Diversity and Distributions↗

USGS2019

Decline of the North American avifauna

Species extinctions have defined the global biodiversity crisis, but extinction begins with loss in abundance of organisms that can result in extreme compositional and functional changes of ecosystems. Using multiple and independent monitoring networks, we report major population losses across much of the North American avifauna, including in once common species and from nearly every biome. Integration of trend and population size estimates indicates a net loss approaching three billion birds, or 29% of 1970 abundance. Continent-wide weather radar also reveals a comparable decline in biomass passage of migrating birds over a recent 10-year period. Our estimates of abundance and biodiversity loss signals an urgent need to address ongoing threats, in order to avert future avifaunal collapse and associated loss of ecosystem integrity and function.

Science↗

USGS2019

Estimating uncertainty of North American landbird population sizes

An important metric for many aspects of species conservation planning and risk assessment is an estimate of total population size. For landbirds breeding in North America, Partners in Flight (PIF) generates global, continental, and regional population size estimates. These estimates are an important component of the PIF species assessment process, but have also been used by others for a range of applications. The PIF population size estimates are primarily calculated using a formula designed to extrapolate bird counts recorded by the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to regional population estimates. The extrapolation formula includes multiple assumptions and sources of uncertainty, but there were previously no attempts to quantify this uncertainty in the published population size estimates aside from a categorical data quality score. Using a Monte Carlo approach, we propagated the main sources of uncertainty arising from individual components of the model through to the final estimation of landbird population sizes. This approach results in distributions of population size estimates rather than point estimates. We found the width of uncertainty of population size estimates to be generally narrower than the order-of-magnitude distances between the population size score categories PIF uses in the species assessment process, suggesting confidence in the categorical ranking used by PIF. Our approach provides a means to identify species whose uncertainty bounds span more than one categorical rank, which was not previously possible with the data quality scores. Although there is still room for additional improvements to the estimation of avian population sizes and uncertainty, particularly with respect to replacing categorical model components with empirical estimates, our estimates of population size distributions have broader utility to a range of conservation planning and risk assessment activities relying on avian population size estimates.

Avian Conservation and Ecology↗

USGS2019

Handbook to the partners in flight population estimates database, version 3.0

This document describes the content of Version 3.0 of the Partners in Flight (PIF) Population Estimates Database, which provides population estimates for breeding USA/Canada landbirds at several geographic scales following the Partners in Flight approach described initially in Rich et al. (2004) and by Rosenberg and Blancher (2005) and most recently refined by Stanton et al. (2019). The Handbook also provides details about how the estimates were derived, information on limitations and caveats, a guide to using the estimates, and future desired directions for improving the estimates. This version of the database is intended as a companion to the Partners in Flight Landbird Conservation Plan: 2016 Revision for Canada and Continental United States (Rosenberg et al. 2016), although estimates for most species included in the database have been updated from those used in the 2016 Plan. Most of the estimates in the database are based on North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data for landbirds from the decade 2006–2015. The information in this 2019 Version of the Handbook, for Version 3.0 of the database, describes all changes that have been made to the database since 2007 (Version 1.0, cf. Blancher et al. 2007)—including the additions documented in the Handbook for Version 2.0 (Blancher et al. 2013)—and therefore serves as a single source document describing the current database. Version 3.0 of the database addresses some of the recommendations suggested by Thogmartin et al. (2006) but does not yet fully address other limitations noted by Thogmartin et al. (2006), Blancher et al. (2007), Thogmartin (2010), Matsuoka et al. (2012), and Twedt (2015). By far, the most substantial change to the database comprises the incorporation of quantitative uncertainty bounds around population estimates for most species (see Stanton et al. 2019 for details). PIF Science anticipates that future versions of the database will occur in stages: first, improving elements of the basic PIF approach (e.g., incorporating more recent BBS data, updating Time of Day Adjustments, and refining Pair Adjustments); next, addressing additional concerns inherent in the PIF approach (e.g., replacing average maximum detection distance bins with research-derived species-specific effective detection radii); and later, perhaps replacing the sample-based PIF approach with a spatially-explicit, model-based (pixel-based) approach that more deliberately incorporates habitat and road biases and the proportion of birds available but not detected by current sampling methodology. This current Version 3.1 of the Handbook updates citations in the Literature Cited and incorporates relatively minor improvements in text clarity over the previous 3.0 version. The content of the Population Estimates Database itself remains the same except for changes to the global and USA/Canada estimates for Northern Bobwhite and Black Vulture.

Partners in Flight Technical Publication↗

USGS2017

Use of North American Breeding Bird Survey data in avian conservation assessments

Conservation resources are limited, and prioritizing species based on their relative vulnerability and risk of extinction is a fundamental component of conservation planning. In North America, the conservation consortium Partners in Flight (PIF) has developed and implemented a data-driven species assessment process, at global and regional scales, based on quantitative vulnerability criteria. This species assessment process has formed the biological basis for PIF's continental and regional planning and has informed the ranking and legal listing of bird species for conservation protection by state, provincial, and national agencies in Canada, the U.S., and Mexico. Because of its long time series, extensive geographic and species coverage, standardized survey methods, and prompt availability of results, the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has been an invaluable source of data, allowing PIF to assign objective vulnerability scores calibrated across more than 460 landbird species. BBS data have been most valuable for assessing long-term population trends (PT score). PIF has also developed methods for estimating population size by extrapolating from BBS abundance indices, allowing the assignment of categorical population size (PS) scores for landbird species. At regional scales, BBS relative abundance indices have allowed PIF to assess the area importance (i.e. stewardship responsibility) of each Bird Conservation Region (BCR) for each species, using measures of both relative density and percent of total population in each BCR. Besides direct applicability to assessment scores, PIF has recently used BBS trend data to create new metrics of conservation urgency (e.g., ‘half-life'), as well as for setting population objectives for tracking progress toward meeting conservation goals. Future directions include integrating BBS data with other sources (e.g., eBird) to assess additional species and nonbreeding season measures, working closely with BBS coordinators to expand surveys into Mexico, and providing assessment scores at implementation-relevant scales, such as for migratory bird joint ventures.

The Condor↗

USGS2017

The Partners in Flight handbook on species assessment Version 2017

Partners in Flight (PIF) is a cooperative venture of federal, state, provincial, and territorial agencies, industry, non-governmental organizations, researchers, and many others whose common goal is the conservation of North American birds (www.partnersinflight.org). While PIF has focused primarily on landbirds, it works in conjunction with other bird partners to promote coordinated conservation of all birds. PIF follows an iterative, adaptive planning approach that develops a sound scientific basis for decision-making and a logical process for setting, implementing, and evaluating conservation objectives (Pashley et al. 2000, Rich et al. 2004, Berlanga et al. 2010). The steps include: 1. Assessing conservation vulnerability of all bird species; 2. Identifying species most in need of conservation attention at continental and regional scales; 3. Setting of numerical population objectives for species of continental and regional importance; 4. Identifying conservation needs and recommended actions for species and habitats of importance; 5. Implementing strategies for meeting species and habitat objectives at continental and regional scales; 6. Evaluating success, making revisions, and setting new objectives for the future. The 2017 PIF Handbook on Species Assessment (2017 PIF Handbook) documents assessment rules and scores used in the Partners in Flight Landbird Conservation Plan: 2016 Revision for Canada and Continental United States (Rosenberg et al. 2016) and The State of North America’s Birds 2016 (NABCI 2016). It updates previous versions of the handbook (Panjabi et al. 2012, 2005, 2001) developed to accompany other PIF applications including Saving Our Shared Birds: Partners in Flight Tri-National Vision for Landbird Conservation (Berlanga et al. 2010) and the North American Landbird Conservation Plan (Rich et al. 2004). All current and past scores, data sources, and other related information are contained in databases hosted by the Bird Conservancy of the Rockies. Scores can be viewed online and downloaded as excel files, including archived versions (http://pif.birdconservancy.org/acad). The current accompanying Avian Conservation Assessment Database (ACAD) holds assessment scores and data for all 1585 native and 18 well-established non-native bird species found in mainland North America south to Panama plus adjacent islands and oceans. The taxonomy follows the American Ornithological Society’s 7th Edition Checklist of North and Middle American Birds, including updates though the 57th supplement, published in 2016 (http://checklist.aou.org/). The ACAD builds on archived PIF databases that hosted only data on the 882 landbirds native to Canada, USA and Mexico. This handbook is presented in two principal sections. Part I details the factors and scoring used by PIF to assess the vulnerability of species at continental and regional scales (i.e. step 1 of the planning approach above). Each assessment factor is based on biological criteria that evaluate distinct components of vulnerability throughout the life cycle of each species across its range. Part II describes the process of how the factors and the corresponding scores can be combined to highlight conservation needs (i.e. step 2 of the planning approach above). Both the scores and the process have evolved over time (Hunter et al. 1992, Carter et al. 2000, Panjabi et al. 2001, 2005, 2012) and continue to be updated in response to external review (Beissinger et al. 2000), broad partner expertise, and the emergence of new data and analytical tools.

Report↗

USGS2015

Understanding landowner intentions to create early successional forest habitat in the northeastern United States

Early successional forest habitat (ESH) and associated wildlife species in the northeastern United States are in decline. One way to help create early successional forest conditions is engaging private forest landowners in even-aged forest management because their limited participation may have contributed to declines in ESH for wildlife species of high conservation concern. We applied the reasoned action approach from social psychology to predict intentions of landowners in the 13-county Southern Tier of New York State, USA, to conduct patch-cuts, which is a type of even-aged forest management. We tested the predictive ability of the model using data from a mail survey of landowners conducted from November 2010 to January 2011. Landowner intention to conduct patch-cuts was high (55% of respondents), with attitude being the strongest direct predictor of behavioral intention. Our results suggest that patch-cutting intentions are most likely expressed by landowners who think the behavior is good for their land and wildlife, believe in positive outcomes of land and wildlife management, belong to a game wildlife organization, and have conducted patch-cuts in the past. Strategies to engage more landowners in ESH management will have the highest likelihood of success if outreach efforts focus on influencing behavioral beliefs and subsequently attitudes, possibly working with game wildlife organizations to communicate a unified message for habitat conservation, including the importance of maintaining and creating ESH. Our results demonstrate the importance of social science research to increase the likelihood that conservation targets for declining wildlife species are met. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

New York↗

USGS2010

Saving our shared birds: Partners in Flight tri-national vision for landbird conservation

Landbirds are the most abundant and diverse group of birds in North America, with nearly 900 species distributed across every major terrestrial habitat. Birds are indicators of environmental health; their populations track changes in habitat, water, disease, and climate. They are providers of invaluable ecosystem services, such as pest control, seed dispersal, and pollination. As the focus of bird watching, they help generate billions of dollars for national economies. Yet, we are in danger of losing this spectacular and irreplaceable bird diversity: landbirds are experiencing significant declines, ominous threats, and shrinking habitats across a continent with growing human populations, increasing resource consumption, and changing climate. Saving Our Shared Birds presents for the first time a comprehensive conservation assessment of landbirds in Canada, Mexico, and the continental United States. This new tri-national vision encompasses the complete range of many migratory species and highlights the vital links among migrants and highly threatened resident species in Mexico. It points to a set of continent-scale actions necessary to maintain the landbird diversity and abundance that are our shared responsibility. This collaborative effort of Partners in Flight (PIF) is the next step in linking the countries of the Western Hemisphere to help species at risk and keep common birds common through voluntary partnerships—our mission since 1990. Saving Our Shared Birds builds upon PIF’s 2004 North American Landbird Conservation Plan, which presented science-based priorities for the conservation of 448 landbird species in Canada and the United States. Our three nations have expressed their commitment to cooperative conservation through numerous international treaties, agreements, and programs, including formation of the North American Bird Conservation Initiative (NABCI) a decade ago. The NABCI partnership recognizes that effective conservation requires a concerted effort within each country, as well as a tri-national strategy to address issues throughout the full life cycles of our birds. Today more than ever, it is urgent for the people of Canada, Mexico, and the United States to work together to keep common birds common, prevent extinction of our bird species at greatest risk, and ensure the diversity and abundance of birdlife across North America and throughout the hemisphere, far into the future. Saving Our Shared Birds shows the way forward.

Report↗

USGS2009

Partners in Flight research needs assessment summary

An important component of the PIF International Conference in McAllen, TX in February 2008 was the incorporation of a Needs Assessment Process in all of the conference sessions. Throughout the McAllen sessions, a number of critical information gaps were identified, pointing to future research that will be needed to establish bird conservation objectives and accomplish bird conservation goals. This document is a summary of the research needs topics identified in the McAllen sessions, placed in the larger context of PIF research needs information. This summary is not intended to be a comprehensive evaluation of landbird research needs, nor a literature review or synthesis of such research needs and research topics. This report was developed by compiling and organizing the research needs identified in McAllen (Rich et al. 2008) and then placing the needs within the context of other PIF-related documents that have identified research needs.

Conference Paper↗