Geology topics

Kenneth H. Pollock

Publications and source records attributed to Kenneth H. Pollock.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2022

Evaluation of MPA designs that protect highly mobile megafauna now and under climate change scenarios

Marine protected area (MPA) designs, including large-scale MPAs (LSMPAs; >150,000 km 2 ), mobile MPAs (fluid spatiotemporal boundaries), and MPA networks, may offer different benefits to species and could enhance protection by encompassing spatiotemporal scales of animal movement. We sought to understand how well LSMPAs could benefit nine highly-mobile marine species in the tropics now and into the future by: 1) evaluating current range overlap within a LSMPA; 2) evaluating range overlap under climate change projections; and 3) evaluating how well theoretical MPA designs benefit these nine species. We focused on Palmyra Atoll and Kingman Reef, a 2000 km 2 area within the 1.2 million km 2 U.S. Pacific Remote Islands Marine National Monument (PRIMNM) that contains marine megafauna (reef and pelagic fishes; sea turtles; seabirds; cetaceans) reflecting different behaviors and habitat use. Our approach is useful for evaluating the effectiveness of the Palmyra-Kingman MPA and PRIMNM in protecting these species, and tropical LSMPAs in general, and for informing future MPA design. Stationary MPAs provided protection at varying scales. Reef manta rays ( Mobula alfredi ), grey reef sharks ( Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos ), green sea turtles ( Chelonia mydas ), and bottlenose dolphins ( Tursiops truncatus ) had overall small ranges (<100 km from Palmyra-Kingman) and could benefit from stationary MPAs that contained heterogenous reef habitats. Yellowfin tuna ( Thunnus albacares ), sooty terns ( Onychoprion fuscatus ), red-footed boobies ( Sula sula ), great frigatebirds ( Fregata minor ), and melon-headed whales ( Peponocephala electra ) navigated complex oceanographic processes and may benefit most from mobile MPAs that shift with features including thermal fronts, cyclic regions of elevated productivity, and eddies, if relationships with these features are established and predictable. All species had capacity to travel to nearby reef systems, illustrating potential benefits of MPA networks and protected corridors. Suitable habitats will likely contract for all species as warm water expands under climate change scenarios (species habitats were predicted to decrease by 4–49% at Palmyra-Kingman) and MPAs may not protect suitable habitats into the future. Species habitat requirements and movement ecologies are critical aspects of marine spatial planning, especially with respect to dynamic ocean processes and a changing climate.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2018

Occupancy in community-level studies

Another type of multi-species studies, are those focused on community-level metrics such as species richness. In this chapter we detail how some of the single-species occupancy models described in earlier chapters have been applied, or extended, for use in such studies, while accounting for imperfect detection. We highlight how Bayesian methods using MCMC are particularly useful in such settings to easily calculate relevant community-level summaries based on presence/absence data. These modeling approaches can be used to assess richness at a single point in time, or to investigate changes in the species pool over time.

Book chapter↗

USGS2018

Response of beach-nesting American Oystercatchers to off-road vehicles: An experimental approach reveals physiological nuances and decreased nest attendance

Shorebird populations face increasing challenges as rising sea levels and growing human populations constrain their breeding habitats. On recreational beaches, the nesting season often coincides with a season of high visitor use, increasing the potential for conflict, which may negatively influence beach-nesting shorebird species. We designed a field experiment to study the responses of nesting American Oystercatchers ( Haematopus palliatus ) to off-road passenger vehicles (ORVs) at Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout National Seashores in North Carolina, USA. We used continuous video and heart rate recordings to assess changes in the behavior and physiology of incubating oystercatchers. We conducted driving experiments affecting 7 nesting pairs in 2014 and 19 nesting pairs in 2015, between April and July of each year. Experimental treatments were repeated throughout the incubation period for each nest. Although responses were highly variable within and among pairs, paired randomized permutation tests indicated that, overall, oystercatcher pairs spent a greater proportion of time with their heads up and exhibited slower heart rates during driving treatments. Pairs also left their nests more frequently and attended their nests for a lower proportion of time during driving treatments, although these responses diminished over time. Higher nest attendance and lower departure rates late in incubation may have reflected a stronger attachment to nests closer to hatching or habituation to the driving treatment, although individuals continued to exhibit physiological responses to passing vehicles throughout incubation. Beach-nesting birds may benefit from reduced vehicle traffic at their nesting sites, allowing parents to spend more time attending the nest and less time on defensive behaviors.

North Carolina↗

USGS2017

Managing American Oystercatcher ( Haematopus palliatus ) population qrowth by targeting nesting season vital rates

In populations of long-lived species, adult survival typically has a relatively high influence on population growth. From a management perspective, however, adult survival can be difficult to increase in some instances, so other component rates must be considered to reverse population declines. In North Carolina, USA, management to conserve the American Oystercatcher ( Haematopus palliatus ) targets component vital rates related to fecundity, specifically nest and chick survival. The effectiveness of such a management approach in North Carolina was assessed by creating a three-stage female-based deterministic matrix model. Isoclines were produced from the matrix model to evaluate minimum nest and chick survival rates necessary to reverse population decline, assuming all other vital rates remained stable at mean values. Assuming accurate vital rates, breeding populations within North Carolina appear to be declining. To reverse this decline, combined nest and chick survival would need to increase from 0.14 to ≤ 0.27, a rate that appears to be attainable based on historical estimates. Results are heavily dependent on assumptions of other vital rates, most notably adult survival, revealing the need for accurate estimates of all vital rates to inform management actions. This approach provides valuable insights for evaluating conservation goals for species of concern.

Waterbirds↗

USGS2015

Camera traps and mark-resight models: The value of ancillary data for evaluating assumptions

Unbiased estimators of abundance and density are fundamental to the study of animal ecology and critical for making sound management decisions. Capture–recapture models are generally considered the most robust approach for estimating these parameters but rely on a number of assumptions that are often violated but rarely validated. Mark-resight models, a form of capture–recapture, are well suited for use with noninvasive sampling methods and allow for a number of assumptions to be relaxed. We used ancillary data from continuous video and radio telemetry to evaluate the assumptions of mark-resight models for abundance estimation on a barrier island raccoon (Procyon lotor) population using camera traps. Our island study site was geographically closed, allowing us to estimate real survival and in situ recruitment in addition to population size. We found several sources of bias due to heterogeneity of capture probabilities in our study, including camera placement, animal movement, island physiography, and animal behavior. Almost all sources of heterogeneity could be accounted for using the sophisticated mark-resight models developed by McClintock et al. (2009b) and this model generated estimates similar to a spatially explicit mark-resight model previously developed for this population during our study. Spatially explicit capture–recapture models have become an important tool in ecology and confer a number of advantages; however, non-spatial models that account for inherent individual heterogeneity may perform nearly as well, especially where immigration and emigration are limited. Non-spatial models are computationally less demanding, do not make implicit assumptions related to the isotropy of home ranges, and can provide insights with respect to the biological traits of the local population.

North Carolina↗

USGS2015

Repeated count surveys help standardize multi-agency estimates of American Oystercatcher ( Haematopus palliatus ) abundance

The extensive breeding range of many shorebird species can make integration of survey data problematic at regional spatial scales. We evaluated the effectiveness of standardized repeated count surveys coordinated across 8 agencies to estimate the abundance of American Oystercatcher ( Haematopus palliatus ) breeding pairs in the southeastern United States. Breeding season surveys were conducted across coastal North Carolina (90 plots) and the Eastern Shore of Virginia (3 plots). Plots were visited on 1–5 occasions during April–June 2013. N -mixture models were used to estimate abundance and detection probability in relation to survey date, tide stage, plot size, and plot location (coastal bay vs. barrier island). The estimated abundance of oystercatchers in the surveyed area was 1,048 individuals (95% credible interval: 851–1,408) and 470 pairs (384–637), substantially higher than estimates that did not account for detection probability (maximum counts of 674 individuals and 316 pairs). Detection probability was influenced by a quadratic function of survey date, and increased from mid-April (~0.60) to mid-May (~0.80), then remained relatively constant through June. Detection probability was also higher during high tide than during low, rising, or falling tides. Abundance estimates from N -mixture models were validated at 13 plots by exhaustive productivity studies (2–5 surveys wk −1 ). Intensive productivity studies identified 78 breeding pairs across 13 productivity plots while the N -mixture model abundance estimate was 74 pairs (62–119) using only 1–5 replicated surveys season −1 . Our results indicate that standardized replicated count surveys coordinated across multiple agencies and conducted during a relatively short time window (closure assumption) provide tremendous potential to meet both agency-level (e.g., state) and regional-level (e.g., flyway) objectives in large-scale shorebird monitoring programs.

North Carolina, Virginia↗

USGS2013

A spatial mark–resight model augmented with telemetry data

Abundance and population density are fundamental pieces of information for population ecology and species conservation, but they are difficult to estimate for rare and elusive species. Mark-resight models are popular for estimating population abundance because they are less invasive and expensive than traditional mark-recapture. However, density estimation using mark-resight is difficult because the area sampled must be explicitly defined, historically using ad-hoc approaches. We develop a spatial mark-resight model for estimating population density that combines spatial resighting data and telemetry data. Incorporating telemetry data allows us to inform model parameters related to movement and individual location. Our model also allows <100% individual identification of marked individuals. We implemented the model in a Bayesian framework, using a custom-made Metropolis-within-Gibbs Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. As an example, we applied this model to a mark-resight study of raccoons on South Core Banks, a barrier island in Cape Lookout National Seashore, North Carolina. We estimated a population of 186.71 ± 14.81 individuals, which translated to a density of 8.29 ± 0.66 individuals per km 2 . The model presented here will have widespread utility in future applications, especially for species that are not naturally marked.

Ecology↗

USGS2013

Tagging methods for estimating population size and mortality rates of inland striped bass populations

Striped bass Morone saxatilis in inland reservoirs play an important role ecologically and in supporting recreational fishing. To manage these populations, biologists need information about abundance and mortality. Abundance estimates can be used to assess the effectiveness of stocking programs that maintain most reservoir striped bass populations. Mortality estimates can indicate the relative impact of fishing versus natural mortality and the need for harvest regulation. The purpose of this chapter is to evaluate tagging studies as a way of obtaining information about abundance and mortality. These approaches can be grouped into three broad categories: tag recapture, tag return, and telemetry. Tag-recapture methods are typically used to estimate population size and other demographic parameters but are often difficult to apply in large systems. A fishing tournament can be an effective way of generating tagging or recapture effort in large systems, compared to using research sampling only. Tag-return methods that rely on angler harvest and catch and release can be used to estimate fishing (F) and natural (M) mortality rates and are a practical approach in large reservoirs. The key to success in tag-return studies is to build in auxiliary studies to estimate short-term tagging mortality, short- and longterm tag loss, reporting rate, and mortality associated with catch and release. F and M can also be estimated using telemetry tags. Advantages of this approach are that angler nonreporting does not bias estimates and fish with transmitters provide useful ecological data. Cost can be a disadvantage of telemetry studies; thus, combining telemetry tags with conventional tag returns in an integrated analysis is often the optimal approach. In summary, tagging methods can be a powerful tool for assessing the effectiveness of inland striped bass stocking programs and the relative impact of fishing versus natural mortality

American Fisheries Society Symposium↗

USGS2010

Using generalized linear models to estimate selectivity from short-term recoveries of tagged red drum Sciaenops ocellatus: Effects of gear, fate, and regulation period

Estimating the selectivity patterns of various fishing gears is a critical component of fisheries stock assessment due to the difficulty in obtaining representative samples from most gears. We used short-term recoveries ( n = 3587) of tagged red drum Sciaenops ocellatus to directly estimate age- and length-based selectivity patterns using generalized linear models. The most parsimonious models were selected using AIC, and standard deviations were estimated using simulations. Selectivity of red drum was dependent upon the regulation period in which the fish was caught, the gear used to catch the fish (i.e., hook-and-line, gill nets, pound nets), and the fate of the fish upon recovery (i.e., harvested or released); models including all first-order interactions between main effects outperformed models without interactions. Selectivity of harvested fish was generally dome-shaped and shifted toward larger, older fish in response to regulation changes. Selectivity of caught-and-released red drum was highest on the youngest and smallest fish in the early and middle regulation periods, but increased on larger, legal-sized fish in the late regulation period. These results suggest that catch-and-release mortality has consistently been high for small, young red drum, but has recently become more common in larger, older fish. This method of estimating selectivity from short-term tag recoveries is valuable because it is simpler than full tag-return models, and may be more robust because yearly fishing and natural mortality rates do not need to be modeled and estimated.

North Carolina↗

USGS2010

Effects of prior detections on estimates of detection probability, abundance, and occupancy

Survey methods that account for detection probability often require repeated detections of individual birds or repeated visits to a site to conduct Counts or collect presence-absence data. Initial encounters with individual species or individuals of a species could influence detection probabilities for subsequent encounters. For example, observers may be more likely to redetect a species or individual once they are aware of the presence of that species or individual at a particular site. Not accounting for these effects could result in biased estimators of detection probability, abundance, and occupancy. We tested for effects of prior detections in three data sets that differed dramatically by species, geographic location, and method of counting birds. We found strong support (AIC weights from 83% to 100%) for models that allowed for the effects of prior detections. These models produced estimates of detection probability, abundance, and occupancy that differed substantially from those produced by models that ignored the effects of prior detections. We discuss the consequences of the effects of prior detections on estimation for several sampling methods and provide recommendations for avoiding these effects through survey design or by modeling them when they cannot be avoided.

The Auk↗

USGS2010

Unmodeled observation error induces bias when inferring patterns and dynamics of species occurrence via aural detections

The recent surge in the development and application of species occurrence models has been associated with an acknowledgment among ecologists that species are detected imperfectly due to observation error. Standard models now allow unbiased estimation of occupancy probability when false negative detections occur, but this is conditional on no false positive detections and sufficient incorporation of explanatory variables for the false negative detection process. These assumptions are likely reasonable in many circumstances, but there is mounting evidence that false positive errors and detection probability heterogeneity may be much more prevalent in studies relying on auditory cues for species detection (e.g., songbird or calling amphibian surveys). We used field survey data from a simulated calling anuran system of known occupancy state to investigate the biases induced by these errors in dynamic models of species occurrence. Despite the participation of expert observers in simplified field conditions, both false positive errors and site detection probability heterogeneity were extensive for most species in the survey. We found that even low levels of false positive errors, constituting as little as 1% of all detections, can cause severe overestimation of site occupancy, colonization, and local extinction probabilities. Further, unmodeled detection probability heterogeneity induced substantial underestimation of occupancy and overestimation of colonization and local extinction probabilities. Completely spurious relationships between species occurrence and explanatory variables were also found. Such misleading inferences would likely have deleterious implications for conservation and management programs. We contend that all forms of observation error, including false positive errors and heterogeneous detection probabilities, must be incorporated into the estimation framework to facilitate reliable inferences about occupancy and its associated vital rate parameters.

North Carolina↗

USGS1998

Higher temporal variability of forest breeding bird communities in fragmented landscapes

Understanding the relationship between animal community dynamics and landscape structure has become a priority for biodiversity conservation. In particular, predicting the effects of habitat destruction that confine species to networks of small patches is an important prerequisite to conservation plan development. Theoretical models that predict the occurrence of species in fragmented landscapes, and relationships between stability and diversity do exist. However, reliable empirical investigations of the dynamics of biodiversity have been prevented by differences in species detection probabilities among landscapes. Using long-term data sampled at a large spatial scale in conjunction with a capture-recapture approach, we developed estimates of parameters of community changes over a 22-year period for forest breeding birds in selected areas of the eastern United States. We show that forest fragmentation was associated not only with a reduced number of forest bird species, but also with increased temporal variability in the number of species. This higher temporal variability was associated with higher local extinction and turnover rates. These results have major conservation implications. Moreover, the approach used provides a practical tool for the study of the dynamics of biodiversity.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

USGS1995

Robustness of survival estimates from radio-telemetry studies with uncertain relocation of individuals

Traditional methods of estimating survival from radio-telemetry studies use either the Trent-Rongstad approach (Trent and Rongstad 1974, Heisey and Fuller 1985) or the Kaplan-Meier approach (Kaplan and Meier 1958; Pollock et al. 1989 a , b ). Both methods appear to require the assumption that relocation probability for animals with a functioning radio is 1. In practice this may not always be reasonable and, in fact, is unnecessary. The number of animals at risk (i.e., risk set) can be modified to account for uncertain relocation of individuals. This involves including only relocated animals in the risk set instead of also including animals not relocated but that were seen later. Simulation results show that estimators and tests for comparing survival curves should be based on this modification.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS1995

Survival of juvenile black brant during brood rearing

Survival of young is an important and poorly understood component of waterfowl productivity. We estimated survival of black brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) goslings during summers 1987-89 on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, to determine timing and magnitude of gosling mortality and to compare methods of estimating gosling survival. Eighty-two percent of radio-tagged adult females (n = 61) fledged ≥1 gosling (brood success). We estimated survival of goslings within broods by 3 methods: (1) changes in mean brood size through time, (2) observation of goslings associated with marked adults, and (3) age ratios of brant captured in banding drives. Estimates of gosling survival within successful broods averaged 81% and ranged from 66 to 92%. Combining brood success and gosling survival within successful broods yielded estimates of overall gosling survival that averaged 68%, ranging from 79% in 1987 to 56% in 1989. Eighty-two percent of gosling mortality occurred in the first 15 days. Estimates of survival on the basis of age ratios of birds captured in banding drives are biased low. Our estimates of average gosling survival are higher than reported for other species of geese.

Alaska↗

USGS1994

Estimating breeding proportions and testing hypotheses about costs of reproduction with capture-recapture data

The proportion of animals in a population that breeds is an important determinant of population growth rate. Usual estimates of this quantity from field sampling data assume that the probability of appearing in the capture or count statistic is the same for animals that do and do not breed. A similar assumption is required by most existing methods used to test ecologically interesting hypotheses about reproductive costs using field sampling data. However, in many field sampling situations breeding and nonbreeding animals are likely to exhibit different probabilities of being seen or caught. In this paper, we propose the use of multistate capture-recapture models for these estimation and testing problems. This methodology permits a formal test of the hypothesis of equal capture/sighting probabilities for breeding and nonbreeding individuals. Two estimators of breeding proportion (and associated standard errors) are presented, one for the case of equal capture probabilities and one for the case of unequal capture probabilities. The multistate modeling framework also yields formal tests of hypotheses about reproductive costs to future reproduction or survival or both fitness components. The general methodology is illustrated using capture-recapture data on female meadow voles, Microtus pennsylvanicus. Resulting estimates of the proportion of reproductively active females showed strong seasonal variation, as expected, with low breeding proportions in midwinter. We found no evidence of reproductive costs extracted in subsequent survival or reproduction. We believe that this methodological framework has wide application to problems in animal ecology concerning breeding proportions and phenotypic reproductive costs.

Ecology↗

USGS1992

Estimating transition probabilities for stage-based population projection matrices using capture-recapture data

In stage—based demography, animals are often categorized into size (or mass) classes, and size—based probabilities of surviving and changing mass classes must be estimated before demographic analyses can be conducted. In this paper, we develop two procedures for the estimation of mass transition probabilities from capture—recapture data. The first approach uses a multistate capture—recapture model that is parameterized directly with the transition probabilities of interest. Maximum likelihood estimates are then obtained numerically using program SURVIV. The second approach involvesa modification of Pollock's robust design. Estimation proceeds by conditioning on animals caught in a particualr class at time i, and then using closed models to estimate the number of these that are alive in other classes at i + 1. Both methods are illustrated by application to meadow vole, Microtus pennsylvanicus, capture—recapture data. The two methods produced reasonable estimates that were similar. Advantages of these two approaches include the directness of estimation, the absence of need for restrictive assumptions about the independence of survival and growth, the testability of assumptions, and the testability of related hypotheses of ecological interest (e.g., the hypothesis of temporal variation in transition probabilities).

Ecology↗

USGS1991

Change-in-ratio estimators for populations with more than two subclasses

Change-in-ratio methods have been developed to estimate the size of populations with two or three population subclasses. Most of these methods require the often unreasonable assumption of equal sampling probabilities for individuals in all subclasses. This paper presents new models based on the weaker assumption that ratios of sampling probabilities are constant over time for populations with three or more subclasses. Estimation under these models requires that a value be assumed for one of these ratios when there are two samples. Explicit expressions are given for the maximum likelihood estimators under models for two samples with three or more subclasses and for three samples with two subclasses. A numerical method using readily available statistical software is described for obtaining the estimators and their standard errors under all of the models. Likelihood ratio tests that can be used in model selection are discussed. Emphasis is on the two-sample, three-subclass models for which Monte-Carlo simulation results and an illustrative example are presented.

Biometrics↗

USGS1990

Estimation of recruitment from immigration versus in situ reproduction using Pollock's robust design

Recruitment to animal populations can occur through both immigration and in situ reproduction. These two components of recruitment are conceptually distinct and lead to different mechanistic models of population dynamics. We describe a capture—recapture design that can be used to obtain separate estimates of two recruitment components. We then illustrate the use of our method and estimators with capture—recapture data from a population of Microtus pennsylvanicus at the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center in Maryland.

Ecology↗