USGS ScienceSearch

Geology topics

Kenneth E. Loonam

Publications and source records attributed to Kenneth E. Loonam.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Assessing the robustness of time-to-event models for estimating unmarked wildlife abundance using remote cameras

Recently developed methods, including time-to-event and space-to-event models, estimate the abundance of unmarked populations from encounter rates with camera trap arrays, addressing a gap in noninvasive wildlife monitoring. However, estimating abundance from encounter rates relies on assumptions that can be difficult to meet in the field, including random movement, population closure, and an accurate estimate of movement speed. Understanding how these models respond to violation of these assumptions will assist in making them more applicable in real-world settings. We used simulated walk models to test the effects of violating the assumptions of the time-to-event model under four scenarios: (1) incorrectly estimating movement speed, (2) violating closure, (3) individuals moving within simplified territories (i.e., movement restricted to partially overlapping circles), (4) and individuals clustering in preferred habitat. The time-to-event model was robust to closure violations, territoriality, and clustering when cameras were placed randomly. However, the model failed to estimate abundance accurately when movement speed was incorrectly estimated or cameras were placed nonrandomly with respect to habitat. We show that the time-to-event model can provide unbiased estimates of abundance when some assumptions that are commonly violated in wildlife studies are not met. Having a robust method for estimating the abundance of unmarked populations with remote cameras will allow practitioners to monitor a more diverse array of populations noninvasively. With the time-to-event model, placing cameras randomly with respect to animal movement and accurately estimating movement speed allows unbiased estimation of abundance. The model is robust to violating the other assumptions we tested.

Ecological Applications

Estimating abundance of an unmarked, low-density species using camera traps

Estimating abundance of wildlife populations can be challenging and costly, especially for species that are difficult to detect and that live at low densities, such as cougars ( Puma concolor ). Remote, motion-sensitive cameras are a relatively efficient monitoring tool, but most abundance estimation techniques using remote cameras rely on some or all of the population being uniquely identifiable. Recently developed methods estimate abundance from encounter rates with remote cameras and do not require identifiable individuals. We used 2 methods, the time-to-event and space-to-event models, to estimate the density of 2 cougar populations in Idaho, USA, over 3 winters from 2016–2019. We concurrently estimated cougar density using the random encounter model (REM), an existing camera-based method for unmarked populations, and genetic spatial capture recapture (SCR), an established method for monitoring cougar populations. In surveys for which we successfully estimated density using the SCR model, the time-to-event estimates were more precise and showed comparable variation between survey years. The space-to-event estimates were less precise than the SCR estimates and were more variable between survey years. Compared to REM, time-to-event was more precise and consistent, and space-to-event was less precise and consistent. Low sample sizes made the space-to-event and SCR models inconsistent from survey to survey, and non-random camera placement may have biased both of the camera-based estimators high. We show that camera-based estimators can perform comparably to existing methods for estimating abundance in unmarked species that live at low densities. With the time- and space-to-event models, managers could use remote cameras to monitor populations of multiple species at broader spatial and temporal scales than existing methods allow.

Idaho