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Kathryn M. Koczot

Publications and source records attributed to Kathryn M. Koczot.

14 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2021

Precipitation-runoff processes in the Merced River Basin, Central California, with prospects for streamflow predictability, water years 1952–2013

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), has constructed a new spatially detailed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model for the Merced River Basin, California, which is a tributary of the San Joaquin River in California. Operated through an Object User Interface (OUI) with Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and daily climate distribution preprocessing functionality, the model is calibrated primarily to simulate (and eventually, forecast) year-to-year variations of inflows to Lake McClure during the critical April–July snowmelt season. The model is intended to become part of a suite of methods used by DWR for estimating daily streamflow from the Merced River Basin, especially during the snowmelt season. This study describes the results of the application of an analysis tool that simulates responses to climate and land-use variations at a higher spatial resolution than previously available to DWR. A geographic information system was used to delineate the model domain, that is, areas draining to a single outlet at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station 11270900, Merced River below Merced Falls Dam, near Snell, CA (also known as California Data Exchange Center station MRC), and subdrainage areas, including four draining to internal gages used as calibration targets. Using this delineation, three contiguous subbasins were recognized and, along with the model domain and nested calibration targets, are the simulation units evaluated in this report. An auto-calibration tool, LUCA (Let Us CAlibrate), was used for each calibration node, from headwaters to basin outlet, and then parameters were manually adjusted to complete the calibration. The main objective was to match April–July snowmelt seasonal discharge values of simulated streamflow to observed (measured or reconstructed) discharge values. Calibration or validation periods used site-specific streamflows—mostly from October 1, 1988, through September 30, 2013—but differed according to the period-of-record available for the measurements collected at internal gages or reconstructed flows for the single outlet. The accuracy of the Merced PRMS streamflow simulations varied seasonally, as compared to observed values. Based on statistical results, the Merced PRMS model satisfactorily simulated snowmelt seasonal streamflows. April–July calibrations for all areas had small negative bias (not greater than 7 percent) and low relative error (less than 8 percent). Less satisfactory performance for other seasons was attributed to several factors: (1) high uncertainty in low or zero flows in summer and fall, (2) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and anthropogenic water use, (3) unavailability and (or) inaccuracy of observed (measured) meteorological input data, and (4) uncertainty in reconstructed streamflow data. With some additional refinement, the Merced PRMS model may be used for forecasting seasonal and longer-term streamflow variations; evaluating forecasted and past climate and land cover changes; providing water-resource managers with a consistent and documented method for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites within the basin; and aiding environmental studies, hydraulic design, water management, and water-quality projects in the Merced River Basin.

California↗
USGS2019

User’s manual for the Draper climate-distribution software suite with data‑evaluation tools

Development of a time series of spatially distributed climate data is an important step in the process of developing physically based environmental models requiring distributed inputs of climate data beyond what is available from observations collected at climate stations. To prepare inputs required for model-mapping units across the study area, climate data (temperature and precipitation) are distributed by combining data from gridded surfaces of mean-monthly climate-data values with (often) widely spaced daily point observations. Examples of climate-data files used to develop PRMS-formatted input files for the Merced River Basin Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) are included in this manual. The Draper Climate-Distribution Software Suite (Draper Suite) consists of the Draper climate-distribution program (Draper) and several supporting pre- and post-processing applications. Draper combines spatially distributed input in the form of monthly averaged values for precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature with daily observed data from climate stations to estimate distributed climate-data values at predefined locations across a study area (typically a drainage basin) on a daily time step. Alternative methods are used when station data are limited or missing for a particular day. Draper uses a set of required and optional input and output files with defined formats and naming conventions. A shell application also is available to manage multiple runs of the Draper application. Other applications in the Draper Suite include (1) a tool to find and interactively remove outliers in the input data, (2) a tool to check and enforce a minimum daily temperature range, and (3) a tool to view output diagnostic information as time-series graphs. These tools can be used iteratively to evaluate and improve the results from Draper as part of a workflow involving physically based environmental models, such as the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS).

Techniques and Methods↗
USGS2012

Watershed scale response to climate change--Feather River Basin, California

General Circulation Model simulations of future climate through 2099 project a wide range of possible scenarios. To determine the sensitivity and potential effect of long-term climate change on the freshwater resources of the United States, the U.S. Geological Survey Global Change study, "An integrated watershed scale response to global change in selected basins across the United States" was started in 2008. The long-term goal of this national study is to provide the foundation for hydrologically based climate change studies across the nation. Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Feather River Basin, California.

California↗
USGS2012

Integrated watershed-scale response to climate change for selected basins across the United States

A study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) evaluated the hydrologic response to different projected carbon emission scenarios of the 21st century using a hydrologic simulation model. This study involved five major steps: (1) setup, calibrate and evaluated the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model in 14 basins across the United States by local USGS personnel; (2) acquire selected simulated carbon emission scenarios from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; (3) statistical downscaling of these scenarios to create PRMS input files which reflect the future climatic conditions of these scenarios; (4) generate PRMS projections for the carbon emission scenarios for the 14 basins; and (5) analyze the modeled hydrologic response. This report presents an overview of this study, details of the methodology, results from the 14 basin simulations, and interpretation of these results. A key finding is that the hydrological response of the different geographical regions of the United States to potential climate change may be different, depending on the dominant physical processes of that particular region. Also considered is the tremendous amount of uncertainty present in the carbon emission scenarios and how this uncertainty propagates through the hydrologic simulations.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2011

Effects of baseline conditions on the simulated hydrologic response to projected climate change

Changes in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitation data selected to represent twentieth-century climate. The hydrologic effects of the climate projections are evaluated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), which is a watershed hydrology simulation model. The Almanor Catchment in the North Fork of the Feather River basin, California, is used as a case study. Differences and similarities between PRMS simulations of hydrologic components (i.e., snowpack formation and melt, evapotranspiration, and streamflow) are examined, and results indicate that the selection of a specific time period used for baseline conditions has a substantial effect on some, but not all, hydrologic variables. This effect seems to be amplified in hydrologic variables, which accumulate over time, such as soil-moisture content. Results also indicate that uncertainty related to the selection of baseline conditions should be evaluated using a range of different baseline conditions. This is particularly important for studies in basins with highly variable climate, such as the Almanor Catchment.

California↗
USGS2008

User's Manual for the Object User Interface (OUI): An Environmental Resource Modeling Framework

The Object User Interface is a computer application that provides a framework for coupling environmental-resource models and for managing associated temporal and spatial data. The Object User Interface is designed to be easily extensible to incorporate models and data interfaces defined by the user. Additionally, the Object User Interface is highly configurable through the use of a user-modifiable, text-based control file that is written in the eXtensible Markup Language. The Object User Interface user's manual provides (1) installation instructions, (2) an overview of the graphical user interface, (3) a description of the software tools, (4) a project example, and (5) specifications for user configuration and extension.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2006

Water-Quality Data for the Lower Russian River Basin, Sonoma County, California, 2003-2004

In 2003, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Sonoma County Water Agency, began a study to determine the chemical, microbiological, and isotopic composition of the surface water and ground water in selected areas of the Lower Russian River Basin, Sonoma County, California. This report is a compilation of the hydrologic and water-quality data collected from 10 Russian River sites, 1 gravel-terrace pit site, 12 ground-water sites, 11 tributary sites including Mark West Creek, and 2 estuary sites between the city of Healdsburg and the Pacific Ocean, for the period August 2003 to September 2004. Field measurements made included streamflow, barometric pressure, dissolved oxygen, pH, specific conductance, and turbidity. Water samples were analyzed for nutrients, major ions, total and dissolved organic carbon, trace elements, mercury, wastewater compounds, total coliform, Escherichia coli, Enterococci, Clostridium perfringens, and the stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen. Discharge measurements and sampling techniques were modified to accommodate the very low summer flows at most of the tributaries, and discharge measurements were made with an acoustic Doppler velocity meter at the estuary river site to overcome the complexities associated with tidal influences.

Data Series↗
USGS2006

Geohydrological characterization, water-chemistry, and ground-water flow simulation model of the Sonoma Valley area, Sonoma County, California

The Sonoma Valley, located about 30 miles north of San Francisco, is one of several basins in Sonoma County that use a combination of ground water and water delivered from the Russian River for supply. Over the past 30 years, Sonoma Valley has experienced rapid population growth and land-use changes. In particular, there has been a significant increase in irrigated agriculture, predominantly vineyards. To provide a better understanding of the ground-water/surface-water system in Sonoma Valley, the U.S. Geological Survey compiled and evaluated existing data, collected and analyzed new data, and developed a ground-water flow model to better understand and manage the ground-water system. The new data collected include subsurface lithology, gravity measurements, groundwater levels, streamflow gains and losses, temperature, water chemistry, and stable isotopes. Sonoma Valley is drained by Sonoma Creek, which discharges into San Pablo Bay. The long-term average annual volume of precipitation in the watershed is estimated to be 269,000 acre-feet. Recharge to the ground-water system is primarily from direct precipitation and Sonoma Creek. Discharge from the ground-water system is predominantly outflow to Sonoma Creek, pumpage, and outflow to marshlands and to San Pablo Bay. Geologic units of most importance for groundwater supply are the Quaternary alluvial deposits, the Glen Ellen Formation, the Huichica Formation, and the Sonoma Volcanics. In this report, the ground-water system is divided into three depth-based geohydrologic units: upper (less than 200 feet below land surface), middle (between 200 and 500 feet), and lower (greater than 500 feet). Synoptic streamflow measurements were made along Sonoma Creek and indicate those reaches with statistically significant gains or losses. Changes in ground-water levels in wells were analyzed by comparing historical contour maps with the contour map for 2003. In addition, individual hydrographs were evaluated to assess temporal changes by region. In recent years, pumping depressions have developed southeast of Sonoma and southwest of El Verano. Water-chemistry data for samples collected from 75 wells during 2002-04 indicate that the ground-water quality in the study area generally is acceptable for potable use. The water from some wells, however, contains one or more constituents in excess of the recommended standards for drinking water. The chemical composition of water from creeks, springs, and wells sampled for major ions plot within three groups on a trilinear diagram: mixed-bicarbonate, sodium-mixed anion, and sodium-bicarbonate. An area of saline ground water in the southern part of the Sonoma Valley appears to have shifted since the late 1940s and early 1950s, expanding in one area, but receding in another. Sparse temperature data from wells southwest of the known occurrence of thermal water suggest that thermal water may be present beneath a larger part of the valley than previously thought. Thermal water contains higher concentrations of dissolved minerals than nonthermal waters because mineral solubilities generally increase with temperature. Geohydrologic Characterization, Water-Chemistry, and Ground-Water Flow Simulation Model of the Sonoma Valley Area, Sonoma County, California Oxygen-18 (d18 O) and deuterium (dD) values for water from most wells plot along the global meteoric water line, indicating that recharge primarily is derived from the direct infiltration of precipitation or the infiltration of seepage from creeks. Samples from shallow- and intermediate-depth wells located near Sonoma Creek and (or) in the vicinity of Shellville plot to the right of the global meteoric water line, indicating that these waters are partly evaporated. The d18 O and dD composition of water from sampled wells indicates that water from wells deeper than 200 feet is isotopically lighter (more negative) than water from wells less than 200 feet deep, possibly indicating that older ground wate

California↗
USGS2006

Geohydrology and water chemistry of the Alexander Valley, Sonoma County, California

This study of the geohydrology and water chemistry of the Alexander Valley, California, was done to provide an improved scientific basis for addressing emerging water-management issues, including potential increases in water demand and changes in flows in the Russian River. The study tasks included (1) evaluation of existing geohydrological, geophysical, and geochemical data; (2) collection and analysis of new geohydrologic data, including subsurface lithologic data, ground-water levels, and streamflow records; and (3) collection and analysis of new water-chemistry data. The estimated total water use for the Alexander Valley for 1999 was approximately 15,800 acre-feet. About 13,500 acre-feet of this amount was for agricultural use, primarily vineyards, and about 2,300 acre-feet was for municipal/industrial use. Ground water is the main source of water supply for this area. The main sources of ground water in the Alexander Valley are the Quaternary alluvial deposits, the Glen Ellen Formation, and the Sonoma Volcanics. The alluvial units, where sufficiently thick and saturated, comprise the best aquifer in the study area. Average recharge to the Alexander Valley is estimated from a simple, basinwide water budget. On the basis of an estimated annual average of 298,000 acre-feet of precipitation, 160,000 acre-feet of runoff, and 113,000 to 133,000 acre-feet of evapotranspiration, about 5,000 to 25,000 acre-feet per year is available for ground-water recharge. Because this estimate is based on differences between large numbers, there is significant uncertainty in this recharge estimate. Long-term changes in ground-water levels are evident in parts of the study area, but because of the sparse network and lack of data on well construction and lithology, it is uncertain if any significant changes have occurred in the northern part of the study area since 1980. In the southern half of the study area, ground-water levels generally were lower at the end of the 2002 irrigation season than at the end of the 1980 season, which suggests that a greater amount of ground water is being pumped in the southern half of the study area in recent years compared with that pumped in the early 1980s. Water-chemistry data for samples collected from 11 wells during 2002-04 indicate that water quality in the study area generally is acceptable for potable use. Two wells, however, each contained one constituent (241 ?g/L of manganese and 1,350 ?g/L of boron) in excess of the recommended standards for drinking water (50 ?g/L and 1,000 ?g/L, respectively). The chemical composition of water from most of the wells sampled for major ions plot as a mixed cation-bicarbonate, magnesium-bicarbonate, or calcium-bicarbonate type water. The ionic composition of the historical and recent samples from wells in the Alexander Valley is similar to that of the historical surface-water samples collected from the Russian River near Healdsburg. This suggests a similar source of water, particularly for wells that are less than 200 feet total depth and perforated in Quaternary alluvial deposits. Water from deeper, non-alluvial wells may contain slightly higher concentrations of sodium as a result of cation exchange. Water samples collected from several wells over an approximately 30-year period suggest a progressive change in water chemistry over time. Samples from the southern part of the valley show a trend towards higher ionic concentrations and increasing concentrations of particular constituents such as sulfate.

California↗
USGS2005

Precipitation-runoff processes in the Feather River basin, northeastern California, and streamflow predictability, water years 1971-97

Precipitation-runoff processes in the Feather River Basin of northern California determine short- and long-term streamflow variations that are of considerable local, State, and Federal concern. The river is an important source of water and power for the region. The basin forms the headwaters of the California State Water Project. Lake Oroville, at the outlet of the basin, plays an important role in flood management, water quality, and the health of fisheries as far downstream as the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Existing models of the river simulate streamflow in hourly, daily, weekly, and seasonal time steps, but cannot adequately describe responses to climate and land-use variations in the basin. New spatially detailed precipitation-runoff models of the basin have been developed to simulate responses to climate and land-use variations at a higher spatial resolution than was available previously. This report characterizes daily rainfall, snowpack evolution, runoff, water and energy balances, and streamflow variations from, and within, the basin above Lake Oroville. The new model's ability to predict streamflow is assessed. The Feather River Basin sits astride geologic, topographic, and climatic divides that establish a hydrologic character that is relatively unusual among the basins of the Sierra Nevada. It straddles a north-south geologic transition in the Sierra Nevada between the granitic bedrock that underlies and forms most of the central and southern Sierra Nevada and volcanic bedrock that underlies the northernmost parts of the range (and basin). Because volcanic bedrock generally is more permeable than granitic, the northern, volcanic parts of the basin contribute larger fractions of ground-water flow to streams than do the southern, granitic parts of the basin. The Sierra Nevada topographic divide forms a high altitude ridgeline running northwest to southeast through the middle of the basin. The topography east of this ridgeline is more like the rain-shadowed basins of the northeastern Sierra Nevada than the uplands of most western Sierra Nevada river basins. The climate is mediterranean, with most of the annual precipitation occurring in winter. Because the basin includes large areas that are near the average snowline, rainfall and rain-snow mixtures are common during winter storms. Consequently, the overall timing and rates of runoff from the basin are highly sensitive to winter temperature fluctuations. The models were developed to simulate runoff-generating processes in eight drainages of the Feather River Basin. Together, these models simulate streamflow from 98 percent of the basin above Lake Oroville. The models simulate daily water and heat balances, snowpack evolution and snowmelt, evaporation and transpiration, subsurface water storage and outflows, and streamflow to key streamflow gage sites. The drainages are modeled as 324 hydrologic-response units, each of which is assumed homogeneous in physical characteristics and response to precipitation and runoff. The models were calibrated with emphasis on reproducing monthly streamflow rates, and model simulations were compared to the total natural inflows into Lake Oroville as reconstructed by the California Department of Water Resources for April-July snowmelt seasons from 1971 to 1997. The models are most sensitive to input values and patterns of precipitation and soil characteristics. The input precipitation values were allowed to vary on a daily basis to reflect available observations by making daily transformations to an existing map of long-term mean monthly precipitation rates that account for altitude and rain-shadow effects. The models effectively simulate streamflow into Lake Oroville during water years (October through September) 1971-97, which is demonstrated in hydrographs and statistical results presented in this report.

Northeastern California↗
USGS2003

Climate effects of pacific decadal oscillation on streamflow of the Feather River, California

The timing of maximum monthly-mean streamflow for the Feather River in northern California has come earlier in the year in recent decades (since the 1950s), as have timings in most rivers throughout California and the western United States. Much of the timing shift in the Feather River basin appears to coincide with interdecadal changes in the North Pacific climate regime. The coincident timing changes are seen as a shift in the month of maximum streamflow from April-May during the cooler Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase to March-April during the warmer phase. The change in streamflow timing in the Feather River basin became an issue during the testing of a new set of watershed models of inflow to Lake Oroville, because model performance degraded in simulations of recent years (1998-2001). The model calibration period (1971-97) was dominated by the warmer (1977-98) PDO phase. However, the 1998-2001 period mostly corresponds to a newly reestablished cool PDO (beginning late 1998). Simulations during 1998-2001 failed to reproduce streamflow as well as simulations of the calibration period, probably because some model parameters, like those associated with rain-snow mixes or temperature and precipitation distributions, are not calibrated for climatic conditions that occur during a cool PDO.

California↗
USGS2001

Numerical Simulation of Ground-Water Flow and Assessment of the Effects of Artificial Recharge in the Rialto-Colton Basin, San Bernardino County, California

The Rialto?Colton Basin, in western San Bernardino County, California, was chosen for storage of imported water because of the good quality of native ground water, the known storage capacity for additional ground-water storage in the basin, and the availability of imported water. To supplement native ground-water resources and offset overdraft conditions in the basin during dry periods, artificial-recharge operations during wet periods in the Rialto?Colton Basin were begun in 1982 to store surplus imported water. Local water purveyors recognized that determining the movement and ultimate disposition of the artificially recharged imported water would require a better understanding of the ground-water flow system. In this study, a finite-difference model was used to simulate ground-water flow in the Rialto?Colton Basin to gain a better understanding of the ground-water flow system and to evaluate the hydraulic effects of artificial recharge of imported water. The ground-water basin was simulated as four horizontal layers representing the river- channel deposits and the upper, middle, and lower water-bearing units. Several flow barriers bordering and internal to the Rialto?Colton Basin influence the direction of ground-water flow. Ground water may flow relatively unrestricted in the shallow parts of the flow system; however, the faults generally become more restrictive at depth. A particle-tracking model was used to simulate advective transport of imported water within the ground-water flow system and to evaluate three artificial-recharge alternatives. The ground-water flow model was calibrated to transient conditions for 1945?96. Initial conditions for the transient-state simulation were established by using 1945 recharge and discharge rates, and assuming no change in storage in the basin. Average hydrologic conditions for 1945?96 were used for the predictive simulations (1997?2027). Ground-water-level measurements made during 1945 were used for comparison with the initial-conditions simulation to determine if there was a reasonable match, and thus reasonable starting heads, for the transient simulation. The comparison between simulated head and measured water levels indicates that, overall, the simulated heads match measured water levels well; the goodness-of-fit value is 0.99. The largest differences between simulated head and measured water level occurred between Barrier H and the Rialto?Colton Fault. Simulated heads near the Santa Ana River and Warm Creek, and simulated heads northwest of Barrier J, generally are within 30 feet of measured water levels and five are within 20 feet. Model-simulated heads were compared with measured long-term changes in hydrographs of composite water levels in selected wells, and with measured short-term changes in hydrographs of water levels in multiple-depth observation wells installed for this project. Simulated hydraulic heads generally matched measured water levels in wells northwest of Barrier J (in the northwestern part of the basin) and in the central part of the basin during 1945?96. In addition, the model adequately simulated water levels in the southeastern part of the basin near the Santa Ana River and Warm Creek and east of an unnamed fault that subparallels the San Jacinto Fault. Simulated heads and measured water levels in the central part of the basin generally are within 10 feet until about 1982?85 when differences become greater. In the northwestern part of the basin southeast of Barrier J, simulated heads were as much as 50 feet higher than measured water levels during 1945?82 but matched measured water levels well after 1982. In the compartment between Barrier H and the Rialto?Colton Fault, simulated heads match well during 1945?82 but are comparatively low during 1982?96. Near the Santa Ana River and Warm Creek, simulated heads generally rose above measured water levels except during 1965?72 when simulated heads compared well with measured water levels. Average

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1997

Documentation and description of the digital spatial data base for southern California Regional Aquifer-System Analysis Program, Santa Clara-Calleguas Basin, Ventura County, California

This report documents the geographic information system map layers and data files generated for the Santa Clara-Calleguas Basin, Ventura County, as part of a Regional Aquifer- System Analysis of southern California from 1989 to 1995. Thirty-six map layers and four data files are maintained in this geographic information system data base. The map layers cover the Santa Clara-Calleguas drainage basin and are stored in a common map projection. Attributes of the map layers and data files are described and referenced. The map layers are grouped by geography, geology, and hydrology.

Open-File Report↗