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K.L. Cole

Publications and source records attributed to K.L. Cole.

16 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2017

Holocene paleoecology of an estuary on Santa Rosa Island, California

The middle to late Holocene history and early Anglo-European settlement impacts on Santa Rosa Island, California, were studied through the analysis of sediments in a small estuarine marsh. A 5.4-m-long sediment core produced a stratigraphic and pollen record spanning the last 5200 yr. Three major zones are distinguishable in the core. The lowermost zone (5200 to 3250 yr B.P.) represents a time of arid climate with predominantly marine sediment input and high Chenopodiaceae and Ambrosia pollen values. The intermediate zone (3250 yr B.P. to 1800 A.D.) is characterized by greater fresh water input and high values for Asteraceae and Cyperaceae pollen and charcoal particles. The uppermost zone (1800 A.D. to present) documents the unprecedented erosion, sedimentation, and vegetation change that resulted from the introduction of large exotic herbivores and exotic plants to the island during Anglo-European settlement. The identification of pollen grains of Torrey Pine (Pinus torreyana) documents the persistence of this endemic species on the island throughout the middle to late Holocene.

Quaternary Research↗
USGS2017

Late Holocene vegetation changes in Greenwater Valley, Mojave Desert, California

Small-scale late Holocene vegetation changes were determined from a series of 13 modern and fossil packrat middens collected from a site in the Greenwater Valley, northern Mojave Desert, California. Although the site is above the modern lower limit of Coleogyne ramosissima (black-brush), macrofossils of this shrub are only present in samples younger than 270 yr B.P. In order to measure changes more subtle than presence vs absence, macrofossil concentrations were quantified, and principal components and factor analyses were used to distinguish midden plant assemblages. Both the presence/absence data and the statistical analyses suggest a downward shift of 50 to 100 m for Coleogyne (blackbrush) communities between 1435 and 1795 A.D. ?? 1985.

Quaternary Research↗
USGS2014

Projecting climate effects on birds and reptiles of the Southwestern United States

We modeled the current and future breeding ranges of seven bird and five reptile species in the Southwestern United States with sets of landscape, biotic (plant), and climatic global circulation model (GCM) variables. For modeling purposes, we used PRISM data to characterize the climate of the Western United States between 1980 and 2009 (baseline for birds) and between 1940 and 2009 (baseline for reptiles). In contrast, we used a pre-selected set of GCMs that are known to be good predictors of southwestern climate (five individual and one ensemble GCM), for the A1B emission scenario, to characterize future climatic conditions in three time periods (2010–39; 2040–69; and, 2070–99). Our modeling approach relied on conceptual models for each target species to inform selection of candidate explanatory variables and to interpret the ecological meaning of developed probabilistic distribution models. We employed logistic regression and maximum entropy modeling techniques to create a set of probabilistic models for each target species. We considered climatic, landscape, and plant variables when developing and testing our probabilistic models. Climatic variables included the maximum and minimum mean monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation for three time periods. Landscape features included terrain ruggedness and insolation. We also considered plant species distributions as candidate explanatory variables where prior ecological knowledge implicated a strong association between a plant and animal species. Projected changes in range varied widely among species, from major losses to major gains. Breeding bird ranges exhibited greater expansions and contractions than did reptile species. We project range losses for Williamson’s sapsucker and pygmy nuthatch of a magnitude that could move these two species close to extinction within the next century. Although both species currently have a relatively limited distribution, they can be locally common, and neither are presently considered candidates for prospective endangerment. We project range losses of over 40 percent, from its current extent of occurrence, for the plateau striped whiptail, Arizona black rattlesnake, and common lesser earless lizard. Currently, these reptile species are thought to be common or at least locally abundant throughout their ranges. The total contribution of plants in each distribution model was very small, but models that contained at least one plant always outperformed models with only physical variables (climatic or landscape). The magnitude of change in projected range increased further into the future, especially when a plant was in the model. Among bird species, those that had the strongest association with a landscape feature during the breeding season, such as terrain ruggedness and insolation, exhibited the smallest contractions in projected breeding range in the future. In contrast, bird species that had weak associations with landscape features, but strong climatic associations, suffered the greatest breeding range contractions. Thus, landscape effects appeared to buffer some of the negative effects of climate change for some species. Among bird species, magnitude of change in projected breeding range was positively related to the annual average temperature of their baseline distribution, thus species with the warmest breeding ranges exhibited the greatest changes in future breeding ranges. This pattern was not evident for reptiles, but might exist if additional species were included in the model. Our results provide managers with a series of projected range maps that will enable scientists, concerned citizens, and wildlife managers to identify what the potential effects of climate change will be on bird and reptile distributions in the Western United States. We hope that our results can be used in proactive ways to mitigate some of the potential effects of climate change on selected species.

Colorado Plateau;Sonoran Desert↗
USGS2010

Vegetation response to early holocene warming as an analog for current and future changes: Special section

Temperatures in southwestern North America are projected to increase 3.5-4 ??C over the next 60-90 years. This will precipitate ecological shifts as the ranges of species change in response to new climates. During this shift, rapid-colonizing species should increase, whereas slow-colonizing species will at first decrease, but eventually become reestablished in their new range. This successional process has been estimated to require from 100 to over 300 years in small areas, under a stable climate, with a nearby seed source. How much longer will it require on a continental scale, under a changing climate, without a nearby seed source? I considered this question through an examination of the response of fossil plant assemblages from the Grand Canyon, Arizona, to the most recent rapid warming of similar magnitude that occurred at the start of the Holocene, 11,700 years ago. At that time, temperatures in southwestern North America increased about 4 ??C over less than a century. Grand Canyon plant species responded at different rates to this warming climate. Early-successional species rapidly increased, whereas late-successional species decreased. This shift persisted throughout the next 2700 years. I found two earlier, less-extreme species shifts following rapid warming events around 14,700 and 16,800 years ago. Late-successional species predominated only after 4000 years or more of relatively stable temperature. These results suggest the potential magnitude, duration, and nature of future ecological changes and have implications for conservation plans, especially those incorporating equilibrium assumptions or reconstituting past conditions. When these concepts are extended to include the most rapid early-successional colonizers, they imply that the recent increases in invasive exotics may be only the most noticeable part of a new resurgence of early-successional vegetation. Additionally, my results challenge the reliability of models of future vegetation and carbon balance that project conditions on the basis of assumptions of equilibrium within only a century. ?? 2009 Society for Conservation Biology.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2009

Past and current trends of change in a dune prairie/oak savanna reconstructed through a multiple-scale history

The history of a rapidly changing mosaic of prairie and oak savanna in northern Indiana was reconstructed using several methods emphasizing different time scales ranging from annual to millennial. Vegetation change was monitored for 8 yr using plots and for 30 yr using aerial photographs. A 20th century fire history was reconstructed from the stand structure of multiple-stemmed trees and fire scars. General Land Office Survey data were used to reconstruct the forest of A.D. 1834. Fossil pollen and charcoal records were used to reconstruct the last 4000 yr of vegetation and fire history. Since its deposition along the shore of Lake Michigan about 4000 yr ago, the area has followed a classical primary dune successional sequence, gradually changing from pine forest to prairie/oak savanna between A.D. 264 and 1007. This successional trend, predicted in the models of Henry Cowles, occurred even though the climate cooled and prairies elsewhere in the region retreated. Severe fires in the 19th century reduced most tree species but led to a temporary increase in Populus tremuloides . During the last few decades, the prairie has been invaded by oaks and other woody species, primarily because of fire suppression since A.D. 1972. The rapid and complex changes now occurring are a response to the compounded effects of plant succession, intense burning and logging in the 19th century, recent fire suppression, and possibly increased airborne deposition of nitrates. The compilation of several historical research techniques emphasizing different time scales allows this study of the interactions between multiple disturbance variables.

Journal of Vegetation Science↗
USGS2009

Using packrat middens to assess grazing effects on vegetation change

Research on grazing effects usually compares the same sites through time or grazed and ungrazed sites over the same time period. Both approaches are complicated in arid environments where grazing can have a long undocumented history and landscapes can be spatially heterogenous. This work employs both approaches simultaneously by comparing grazed and ungrazed samples through both time and space using fossil plant macrofossils and pollen from packrat middens. A series of 27 middens, spanning from 995 yr BP to the present, were collected from Glen Canyon in southeastern Utah, USA. These middens detail vegetation change just prior to, and following, the historical introduction of domesticated grazers and also compares assemblages from nearby ungrazable mesas. Pre-grazing middens, and modern middens from ungrazed areas, record more native grasses, native herbs, and native shrubs such as Rhus trilobata, Amelanchier utahensis, and Shepherdia rotundifolia than modern middens from grazed areas. Ordinations demonstrate that site-to-site variability is more important than any temporal changes, making selection of comparable grazed versus ungrazed study treatments difficult. But within similar sites, the changes through time show that grazing lowered the number of taxa recorded, and lessened the pre-existing site differences, homogenizing the resultant plant associations in this desert grassland.

Journal of Arid Environments↗
USGS2009

Unusual raptor nests around the world

From surveys in many countries, we report raptors using unusual nesting materials (e.g., paper money, rags, metal, antlers, and large bones) and unusual nesting situations. For example, we documented nests of Steppe Eagles Aquila nipalensis and Upland Buzzards Buteo hemilasius on the ground beside well-traveled roads, Saker Falcon Falco cherrug eyries in attics and a cistern, and Osprey Pandion haliaetus nests on the masts of boats and on a suspended automobile. Other records include a Golden Eagle A. chrysaetos nest 7.0 m in height, believed to be the tallest nest ever described, and, for the same species, we report nesting in rudimentary nests. Some nest sites are within a few meters of known predators or competitors. These unusual observations may be important in revealing the plasticity of a species' behavioral repertoire. ?? 2009 The Raptor Research Foundation, Inc.

Journal of Raptor Research↗
USGS2007

Geographical and climatic limits of needle types of one- and two-needled pinyon pines

Aim: The geographical extent and climatic tolerances of one- and two-needled pinyon pines (Pinus subsect. Cembroides) are the focus of questions in taxonomy, palaeoclimatology and modelling of future distributions. The identification of these pines, traditionally classified by one- versus two-needled fascicles, is complicated by populations with both one- and two-needled fascicles on the same tree, and the description of two more recently described one-needled varieties: the fallax-type and californiarum-type. Because previous studies have suggested correlations between needle anatomy and climate, including anatomical plasticity reflecting annual precipitation, we approached this study at the level of the anatomy of individual pine needles rather than species. Location: Western North America. Methods: We synthesized available and new data from field and herbarium collections of needles to compile maps of their current distributions across western North America. Annual frequencies of needle types were compared with local precipitation histories for some stands. Historical North American climates were modelled on a c. 1-km grid using monthly temperature and precipitation values. A geospatial model (ClimLim), which analyses the effect of climate-modulated physiological and ecosystem processes, was used to rank the importance of seasonal climate variables in limiting the distributions of anatomical needle types. Results: The pinyon needles were classified into four distinct types based upon the number of needles per fascicle, needle thickness and the number of stomatal rows and resin canals. The individual needles fit well into four categories of needle types, whereas some trees exhibit a mixture of two needle types. Trees from central Arizona containing a mixture of Pinus edulis and fallax-type needles increased their percentage of fallax-type needles following dry years. All four needle types occupy broader geographical regions with distinctive precipitation regimes. Pinus monophylla and californiarum-type needles occur in regions with high winter precipitation. Pinus edulis and fallax-type needles are found in regions with high monsoon precipitation. Areas supporting californiarum-type and fallax-type needle distributions are additionally characterized by a more extreme May-June drought. Main conclusions: These pinyon needle types seem to reflect the amount and seasonality of precipitation. The single needle fascicle characterizing the fallax type may be an adaptation to early summer or periodic drought, while the single needle of Pinus monophylla may be an adaptation to summer-autumn drought. Although the needles fit into four distinct categories, the parent trees are sometimes less easily classified, especially near their ancestral Pleistocene ranges in the Mojave and northern Sonoran deserts. The abundance of trees with both one- and two-needled fascicles in the zones between P. monophylla, P. edulis and fallax-type populations suggest that needle fascicle number is an unreliable characteristic for species classification. Disregarding needle fascicle number, the fallax-type needles are nearly identical to P. edulis, supporting Little's (1968) initial classification of these trees as P. edulis var. fallax, while the californiarum-type needles have a distinctive morphology supporting Bailey's (1987) classification of this tree as Pinus californiarum.

Journal of Biogeography↗
USGS2005

Carbon isotopes from fossil packrat pellets and elevational movements of Utah agave plants reveal the Younger Dryas cold period in Grand Canyon, Arizona

Carbon isotopes in rodent fecal pellets were measured on packrat (Neotoma spp.) middens from the Grand Canyon, Arizona. The pellet samples reflect the abundance of cold-intolerant C4 and Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) plant species relative to the predominant C3 vegetation in the packrat diet. The temporal sequence of isotopic results suggests a temperature decline followed by a sharp increase corresponding to the B??lling/Aller??d-Younger Dryas - early Holocene sequence. This pattern was then tested using the past distribution of Utah agave (Agave utahensis). Spatial analyses of the range of this temperature-sensitive CAM species demonstrate that its upper elevational limit is controlled by winter minimum temperature. Applying this paleotemperature proxy to the past elevational limits of Utah agave suggests that minimum winter temperatures were ???8??C below modern values during the Last Glacial Maximum, 4.5-6.5 ??C below modern during the B??lling/Aller??d, and 7.5-8.7 ??C below modern during the early Younger Dryas. As the Younger Dryas terminated, temperatures warmed ???4 ??C between ca. 11.8 ka and 11.5 ka. These extreme fluctuations in winter minimum temperature have not been generally accepted for terrestrial paleoecological records from the arid southwestern United States, likely because of large statistical uncertainties of older radiocarbon results and reliance on proxies for summer temperatures, which were less affected. ?? 2005 Geological Society of America.

Geology↗
USGS2002

Ploidy race distributions since the Last Glacial Maximum in the North American desert shrub, Larrea tridentata

A classic biogeographic pattern is the alignment of diploid, tetraploid and hexaploid races of creosote bush ( Larrea tridentata ) across the Chihuahuan, Sonoran and Mohave Deserts of western North America. We used statistically robust differences in guard cell size of modern plants and fossil leaves from packrat middens to map current and past distributions of these ploidy races since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Glacial/early Holocene (26–10 14 C kyr bp or thousands of radiocarbon years before present) populations included diploids along the lower Rio Grande of west Texas, 650 km removed from sympatric diploids and tetraploids in the lower Colorado River Basin of south-eastern California/south-western Arizona. Diploids migrated slowly from lower Rio Grande refugia with expansion into the northern Chihuahuan Desert sites forestalled until after ~4.0 14 C kyr bp . Tetraploids expanded from the lower Colorado River Basin into the northern limits of the Sonoran Desert in central Arizona by 6.4 14 C kyr bp . Hexaploids appeared by 8.5 14 C kyr bp in the lower Colorado River Basin, reaching their northernmost limits (~37°N) in the Mohave Desert between 5.6 and 3.9 14 C kyr bp . Modern diploid isolates may have resulted from both vicariant and dispersal events. In central Baja California and the lower Colorado River Basin, modern diploids probably originated from relict populations near glacial refugia. Founder events in the middle and late Holocene established diploid outposts on isolated limestone outcrops in areas of central and southern Arizona dominated by tetraploid populations. Geographic alignment of the three ploidy races along the modern gradient of increasingly drier and hotter summers is clearly a postglacial phenomenon, but evolution of both higher ploidy races must have happened before the Holocene. The exact timing and mechanism of polyploidy evolution in creosote bush remains a matter of conjecture.

Arizona, Baja California, Baja California Sur, Cal↗
USGS2001

Holocene climate in the western Great Lakes national parks and lakeshores: Implications for future climate change

We reconstruct Holocene climate history (last 10,000 years) for each of the U.S. National Park Service units in the western Great Lakes region in order to evaluate their sensitivity to global warming. Annual precipitation, annual temperature, and July and January temperatures were reconstructed by comparing fossil pollen in lake sediment with pollen in surface samples, assuming that ancient climates were similar to modern climate near analogous surface samples. In the early Holocene, most of the parks experienced colder winters, warmer summers, and lower precipitation than today. An exception is Voyageurs National Park in northern Minnesota where, by 8000 years ago, January temperatures were higher than today. The combination of high mean annual temperature and lower precipitation at Voyageurs resulted in a dry period between 8000 and 5000 years ago, similar to the Prairie Period in regions to the south and west. A mid-Holocene warm-dry period also occurred at other northern and central parks but was much less strongly developed. In southern parks there was no clear evidence of a mid-Holocene warm-dry period. These differences suggest that global model predictions of a warm, dry climate in the northern Great Plains under doubled atmospheric CO2 may be more applicable to Voyageurs than to the other parks. The contrast in reconstructed temperatures at Voyageurs and Isle Royale indicates that the ameliorating effect of the Great Lakes on temperatures has been in effect throughout the Holocene and presumably will continue in the future, thus reducing the potential for species loss caused by future temperature extremes. Increased numbers of mesic trees at all of the parks in the late Holocene reflect increasing annual precipitation. This trend toward more mesic conditions began 6000 years ago in the south and 4000 years ago in the north and increased sharply in recent millennia at parks located today in lake-effect snow belts. This suggests that lake-effect snowfall is sensitive to continental-scale changes in climate and could be affected by future climate change. Plant and animal species sensitive to changes in the moisture regime could thus be endangered within the Great Lakes parks.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Manitoba, Michigan, Minne↗
USGS2000

Ploidy race distributions since the Last Glacial Maximum in the North American desert shrub, Larrea tridentata

1 A classic biogeographic pattern is the alignment of diploid, tetraploid and hexaploid races of creosote bush (Larrea tridentata) across the Chihuahuan, Sonoran and Mohave Deserts of western North America. We used statistically robust differences in guard cell size of modern plants and fossil leaves from packrat middens to map current and past distributions of these ploidy races since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). 2 Glacial/early Holocene (26-10 14C kyr BP or thousands of radiocarbon years before present) populations included diploids along the lower Rio Grande of west Texas, 650 km removed from sympatric diploids and tetraploids in the lower Colorado River Basin of south-eastern California/south-western Arizona. Diploids migrated slowly from lower Rio Grande refugia with expansion into the northern Chihuahuan Desert sites forestalled until after ???4.0 14C kyr BP. Tetraploids expanded from the lower Colorado River Basin into the northern limits of the Sonoran Desert in central Arizona by 6.4 14C kyr BP. Hexaploids appeared by 8.5 14C kyr BP in the lower Colorado River Basin, reaching their northernmost limits (???37??N) in the Mohave Desert between 5.6 and 3.9 14C kyr BP. 3 Modern diploid isolates may have resulted from both vicariant and dispersal events. In central Baja California and the lower Colorado River Basin, modern diploids probably originated from relict populations near glacial refugia. Founder events in the middle and late Holocene established diploid outposts on isolated limestone outcrops in areas of central and southern Arizona dominated by tetraploid populations. 4 Geographic alignment of the three ploidy races along the modern gradient of increasingly drier and hotter summers is clearly a postglacial phenomenon, but evolution of both higher ploidy races must have happened before the Holocene. The exact timing and mechanism of polyploidy evolution in creosote bush remains a matter of conjecture. ?? 2001 Blackwell Science Ltd.

Geologia Sudetica↗
USGS1999

Historical land cover changes in the Great Lakes Region

Two different methods of reconstructing historical vegetation change, drawing on General Land Office (GLO) surveys and fossil pollen deposits, are demonstrated by using data from the Great Lakes region. Both types of data are incorporated into landscape-scale analyses and presented through geographic information systems. Results from the two methods reinforce each other and allow reconstructions of past landscapes at different time scales. Changes to forests of the Great Lakes region during the last 150 years were far greater than the changes recorded over the preceding 1,000 years. Over the last 150 years, the total amount of forested land in the Great Lakes region declined by over 40%, and much of the remaining forest was converted to early successional forest types as a result of extensive logging. These results demonstrate the utility of using GLO survey data in conjunction with other data sources to reconstruct a generalized 'presettlement' condition and assess changes in landcover.

Biological Science Report↗
USGS1997

Holocene vegetation and historic grazing impacts at Capitol Reef National Park reconstructed using packrat middens

Mid- to late-Holocene vegetation change from a remote high-desert site was reconstructed using plant macrofossils and pollen from 9 packrat middens ranging from 0 to 5400 yr in age. Presettlement middens consistently contained abundant macrofossils of plant species palatable to large herbivores that are now absent or reduced, such as winterfat ( Ceratoides lanatd ) and ricegrass ( Stipa hymenoides ). Macrofossils and pollen of pinyon pine ( Pinus edulis ), sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.), and roundleaf buffaloberry ( Shepherdia rotundifolia ) were also recently reduced to their lowest levels for the 5400-yr record. Conversely, species typical of overgrazed range, such as snakeweed ( Gutierrezia sarothrae ), viscid rabbitbrush ( Chrysothamnus visidiflorus ), and Russian thistle ( Salsola sp.), were not recorded prior to the historic introduction of grazing animals. Pollen of Utah juniper ( Juniperus osteosperma ) also increased during the last 200 yr. These records demonstrate that the most severe vegetation changes of the last 5400 yr occurred during the past 200 yr. The nature and timing of these changes suggest that they were primarily caused by 19th-century open-land sheep and cattle ranching. The reduction of pinyon and sagebrush concurrent with other grazing impacts suggests that effects of cattle grazing at modern stocking levels may be a poor analog for the effects of intense sheep grazing during drought.

Great Basin Naturalist↗