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Geology topics

Julie M. Donnelly-Nolan

Publications and source records attributed to Julie M. Donnelly-Nolan.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2018

Origin of primitive tholeiitic and calc-alkaline basalts at Newberry Volcano, Oregon

Major and trace element and radiogenic isotopic characteristics of primitive mafic Pleistocene and Holocene lavas from Newberry Volcano, Oregon, define two groups. The first consists of dry tholeiitic high-alumina olivine basalts that are slightly enriched in highly incompatible elements. The second group consists of calc-alkaline basalts that contained 2–4 wt % H 2 O prior to eruption and shows strong enrichment in the light rare earth elements, Ba, and Sr, and deficits in Nb, Ta, Hf, and Zr. The tholeiitic basalts reflect 6–11% anhydrous adiabatic decompression melting of spinel peridotite. The calc-alkaline basalts derived from compositionally distinct sources with strong LIL enrichment and relative depletion in HFSE, but with Sr, Nd, Hf, and Pb isotopic composition only slightly distinct from the sources of the tholeiitic magmas. Radiogenic Os correlates with LREE enrichment in the calc-alkaline magmas, which indicates that their source materials include a contribution from a mafic component that was melted in the garnet stability field. The calc-alkaline magmas were derived by melting of peridotite metasomatized by a fluid/melt that originated by melting of a mixture of the sediment plus MORB basalt/mantle in the underlying subducting oceanic plate. While the trace element characteristics of the calc-alkaline magmas were determined by the subduction component, their isotopic characteristics were modified during transit through the mantle by interaction with the highly magmatically processed mantle wedge beneath Newberry Volcano that, without the slab component, serves as the source of the tholeiitic magmas.

Oregon↗
USGS2017

Geologic field-trip guide to Medicine Lake Volcano, northern California, including Lava Beds National Monument

Medicine Lake volcano is among the very best places in the United States to see and walk on a variety of well-exposed young lava flows that range in composition from basalt to rhyolite. This field-trip guide to the volcano and to Lava Beds National Monument, which occupies part of the north flank, directs visitors to a wide range of lava flow compositions and volcanic phenomena, many of them well exposed and Holocene in age. The writing of the guide was prompted by a field trip to the California Cascades Arc organized in conjunction with the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI) quadrennial meeting in Portland, Oregon, in August of 2017. This report is one of a group of three guides describing the three major volcanic centers of the southern Cascades Volcanic Arc. The guides describing the Mount Shasta and Lassen Volcanic Center parts of the trip share an introduction, written as an overview to the IAVCEI field trip. However, this guide to Medicine Lake volcano has descriptions of many more stops than are included in the 2017 field trip. The 23 stops described here feature a range of compositions and volcanic phenomena. Many other stops are possible and some have been previously described, but these 23 have been selected to highlight the variety of volcanic phenomena at this rear-arc center, the range of compositions, and for the practical reason that they are readily accessible. Open ground cracks, various vent features, tuffs, lava-tube caves, evidence for glaciation, and lava flows that contain inclusions and show visible evidence of compositional zonation are described and visited along the route.

California↗
USGS2017

Overview for geologic field-trip guides to Mount Mazama, Crater Lake Caldera, and Newberry Volcano, Oregon

These field-trip guides were written for the occasion of the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI) quadrennial scientific assembly in Portland, Oregon, in August 2017. The guide to Mount Mazama and Crater Lake caldera is an updated and expanded version of the guide (Bacon, 1989) for part of an earlier IAVCEI trip to the southern Cascade Range. The guide to Newberry Volcano describes the stops included in the 2017 field trip. Crater Lake and Newberry are the two best-preserved and most recent calderas in the Cascades Volcanic Arc. Although located in different settings in the arc, with Crater Lake on the arc axis and Newberry in the rear-arc, both volcanoes are located at the intersection of the arc and the northwest corner region of the extensional Basin and Range Province.

Oregon↗
USGS2017

Overview for geologic field-trip guides to volcanoes of the Cascades Arc in northern California

The California Cascades field trip is a loop beginning and ending in Portland, Oregon. The route of day 1 goes eastward across the Cascades just south of Mount Hood, travels south along the east side of the Cascades for an overview of the central Oregon volcanoes (including Three Sisters and Newberry Volcano), and ends at Klamath Falls, Oregon. Day 2 and much of day 3 focus on Medicine Lake Volcano. The latter part of day 3 consists of a drive south across the Pit River into the Hat Creek Valley and then clockwise around Lassen Volcanic Center to the town of Chester, California. Day 4 goes from south to north across Lassen Volcanic Center, ending at Burney, California. Day 5 and the first part of day 6 follow a clockwise route around Mount Shasta. The trip returns to Portland on the latter part of day 6, west of the Cascades through the Klamath Mountains and the Willamette Valley. Each of the three sections of this guidebook addresses one of the major volcanic regions: Lassen Volcanic Center (a volcanic field that spans the volcanic arc), Mount Shasta (a fore-arc stratocone), and Medicine Lake Volcano (a rear-arc, shield-shaped edifice). Each section of the guide provides (1) an overview of the extensive field and laboratory studies, (2) an introduction to the literature, and (3) directions to the most important and accessible field localities. The field-trip sections contain far more stops than can possibly be visited in the actual 6-day 2017 IAVCEI excursion from Portland. We have included extra stops in order to provide a field-trip guide that will have lasting utility for those who may have more time or may want to emphasize one particular volcanic area.

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USGS2017

Field-trip guide to the geologic highlights of Newberry Volcano, Oregon

Newberry Volcano and its surrounding lavas cover about 3,000 square kilometers (km 2 ) in central Oregon. This massive, shield-shaped, composite volcano is located in the rear of the Cascades Volcanic Arc, ~60 km east of the Cascade Range crest. The volcano overlaps the northwestern corner of the Basin and Range tectonic province, known locally as the High Lava Plains, and is strongly influenced by the east-west extensional environment. Lava compositions range from basalt to rhyolite. Eruptions began about half a million years ago and built a broad composite edifice that has generated more than one caldera collapse event. At the center of the volcano is the 6- by 8-km caldera, created ~75,000 years ago when a major explosive eruption of compositionally zoned tephra led to caldera collapse, leaving the massive shield shape visible today. The volcano hosts Newberry National Volcanic Monument, which encompasses the caldera and much of the northwest rift zone where mafic eruptions occurred about 7,000 years ago. These young lava flows erupted after the volcano was mantled by the informally named Mazama ash, a blanket of volcanic ash generated by the eruption that created Crater Lake about 7,700 years ago. This field trip guide takes the visitor to a variety of easily accessible geologic sites in Newberry National Volcanic Monument, including the youngest and most spectacular lava flows. The selected sites offer an overview of the geologic story of Newberry Volcano and feature a broad range of lava compositions. Newberry ’ s most recent eruption took place about 1,300 years ago in the center of the caldera and produced tephra and lava of rhyolitic composition. A significant mafic eruptive event occurred about 7,000 years ago along the northwest rift zone. This event produced lavas ranging in composition from basalt to andesite, which erupted over a distance of 35 km from south of the caldera to Lava Butte where erupted lava flowed west to temporarily block the Deschutes River. Because of Newberry Volcano ’ s proximity to populated areas, the presence of hot springs within the caldera, and the long and recent history of eruptive activity (including explosive activity), the U.S. Geological Survey installed monitoring equipment on the volcano. A recent geophysical study indicates the presence of magma at 3 to 5 km beneath the caldera. The writing of this guide was prompted by a field trip to Crater Lake and Newberry Volcano organized in conjunction with the August 2017 IAVCEI quadrennial meeting in Portland, Oregon. Both field trip guides are available online. These two volcanoes were grouped in a single field trip because they are two of the few Cascades volcanoes that have generated calderas and significant related tephra deposits.

Oregon↗
USGS2016

Late Holocene volcanism at Medicine Lake Volcano, northern California Cascades

Late Holocene volcanism at Medicine Lake volcano in the southern Cascades arc exhibited widespread and compositionally diverse magmatism ranging from basalt to rhyolite. Nine well-characterized eruptions have taken place at this very large rear-arc volcano since 5,200 years ago, an eruptive frequency greater than nearly all other Cascade volcanoes. The lavas are widely distributed, scattered over an area of ~300 km 2 across the >2,000-km 2 volcano. The eruptions are radiocarbon dated and the ages are also constrained by paleomagnetic data that provide strong evidence that the volcanic activity occurred in three distinct episodes at ~1 ka, ~3 ka, and ~5 ka. The ~1-ka final episode produced a variety of compositions including west- and north-flank mafic flows interspersed in time with fissure rhyolites erupted tangential to the volcano’s central caldera, including the youngest and most spectacular lava flow at the volcano, the ~950-yr-old compositionally zoned Glass Mountain flow. At ~3 ka, a north-flank basalt eruption was followed by an andesite eruption 27 km farther south that contains quenched basalt inclusions. The ~5-ka episode produced two caldera-focused dacitic eruptions. Quenched magmatic inclusions record evidence of intrusions that did not independently reach the surface. The inclusions are present in five andesitic, dacitic, and rhyolitic host lavas, and were erupted in each of the three episodes. Compositional and mineralogic evidence from mafic lavas and inclusions indicate that both tholeiitic (dry) and calcalkaline (wet) parental magmas were present. Petrologic evidence records the operation of complex, multi-stage processes including fractional crystallization, crustal assimilation, and magma mixing. Experimental evidence suggests that magmas were stored at 3 to 6 km depth prior to eruption, and that both wet and dry parental magmas were involved in generating the more silicic magmas. The broad distribution of eruptive events and the relative accessibility and good exposure of lavas, combined with physical and petrologic evidence for multiple and varied mafic inputs, has created an unusual opportunity to understand the workings of this large magmatic system. A combined total of more than 25 intrusive and extrusive events are indicated for late Holocene time. Plutonic inclusions, some with ages as young as Holocene, were also brought to the surface in five of the eruptions. All eruptions took place along northwest- to northeast-trending alignments of vents, reflecting the overall east-west extensional tectonic environment. The interaction of tectonism and volcanism is a dominant influence at this subduction-related volcano, located where the west edge of the extensional Basin and Range Province impinges on the Cascades arc. Ongoing subsidence focused at the central caldera has been documented along with geophysical evidence for a small magma body. This evidence, combined with the frequency of eruptive and intrusive activity in late Holocene time, an active geothermal system, and intermittent long-period seismic events indicate that the volcano is likely to erupt again.

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USGS2015

Newberry Volcano's youngest lava flows

Most of Newberry Volcano's youngest lava flows are found within the Newberry National Volcanic Monument in central Oregon. Established November 5, 1990, the monument is managed by the U.S. Forest Service as part of the Deschutes National Forest. Since 2011, a series of aerial surveys over the monument collected elevation data using lidar (light detection and ranging) technology, which uses lasers to directly measure the ground surface. These data record previously unseen detail in the volcano’s numerous lava flows and vents. On average, a laser return was collected from the ground’s surface every 2.17 feet (ft) with ±1.3 inches vertical precision. The central caldera is visible in the lower right corner of the center map, outlined by the black dashed line. The caldera collapsed about 75,000 years ago when massive explosions sent volcanic ash as far as the San Francisco Bay area and created a 3,000-ft-deep hole in the center of the volcano. The caldera is now partly refilled by Paulina and East Lakes, and the byproducts from younger eruptions, including Newberry Volcano’s youngest rhyolitic lavas, shown in red and orange. The majority of Newberry Volcano’s many lava flows and cinder cones are blanketed by as much as 5 feet of volcanic ash from the catastrophic eruption of Mount Mazama that created Crater Lake caldera approximately 7,700 years ago. This ash supports abundant tree growth and obscures the youthful appearance of Newberry Volcano. Only the youngest volcanic vents and lava flows are well exposed and unmantled by volcanic ash. More than one hundred of these young volcanic vents and lava flows erupted 7,000 years ago during Newberry Volcano’s northwest rift zone eruption.

Oregon↗
USGS2014

Straddling the tholeiitic/calc-alkaline transition: The effects of modest amounts of water on magmatic differentiation at Newberry Volcano, Oregon

Melting experiments have been performed at 1 bar (anhydrous) and 1- and 2-kbar H 2 O-saturated conditions to study the effect of water on the differentiation of a basaltic andesite. The starting material was a mafic pumice from the compositionally zoned tuff deposited during the ~75 ka caldera-forming eruption of Newberry Volcano, a rear-arc volcanic center in the central Oregon Cascades. Pumices in the tuff of Newberry caldera (TNC) span a continuous silica range from 53 to 74 wt% and feature an unusually high-Na 2 O content of 6.5 wt% at 67 wt% SiO 2 . This wide range of magmatic compositions erupted in a single event makes the TNC an excellent natural laboratory in which to study the conditions of magmatic differentiation. Our experimental results and mineral–melt hygrometers/thermometers yield similar estimates of pre-eruptive H 2 O contents and temperatures of the TNC liquids. The most primitive (mafic) basaltic andesites record a pre-eruptive H 2 O content of 1.5 wt% and a liquidus temperature of 1,060–1,070 °C at upper crustal pressure. This modest H 2 O content produces a distinctive fractionation trend that is much more enriched in Na, Fe, and Ti than the calc-alkaline trend typical of wetter arc magmas, but slightly less enriched in Fe and Ti than the tholeiitic trend of dry magmas. Modest H 2 O contents might be expected at Newberry Volcano given its location in the Cascade rear arc, and the same fractionation trend is also observed in the rim andesites of the rear-arc Medicine Lake volcano in the southern Cascades. However, the Na–Fe–Ti enrichment characteristic of modest H 2 O (1–2 wt%) is also observed to the west of Newberry in magmas erupted from the arc axis, such as the Shevlin Park Tuff and several lava flows from the Three Sisters. This shows that modest-H 2 O magmas are being generated directly beneath the arc axis as well as in the rear arc. Because liquid lines of descent are particularly sensitive to water content in the range of 0–3 wt% H 2 O, they provide a quantitative and reliable tool for precisely determining pre-eruptive H 2 O content using major-element data from pumices or lava flows. Coupled enrichment in Na, Fe, and Ti relative to the calc-alkaline trend is a general feature of fractional crystallization in the presence of modest amounts of H 2 O, which may be used to look for “damp” fractionation sequences elsewhere.

Oregon↗
USGS2012

Crustal subsidence and extension and Medicine Lake volcano, northern California

The pattern of historical ground deformation, seismicity, and crustal structure near Medicine Lake volcano illustrates a close relation between magmatism and tectonism near the margin of the Cascade volcanic chain and the Basin and Range tectonic province. Between leveling surveys in 1954 and 1989 the summit of Medicine Lake volcano subsided 389±43 mm with respect to a reference bench mark 40 km to the southwest (average rate = 11.1±1.2 mm/yr). A smaller survey across the summit caldera in 1988 suggests that the subsidence rate was 15–28 mm/yr during 1988–1989. Swarms of shallow earthquakes ( M ≤ 4.6) occurred in the region during August 1978, January–February 1981, and September 1988. Except for the 1988 swarm, which occurred beneath Medicine Lake caldera, most historical earthquakes were located at least 25 km from the summit. The spatial relation between subsidence and seismicity indicates (1) radially symmetric downwarping of the volcano's summit and flanks centered near the caldera and (2) downfaulting of the entire edifice along regional faults located 25–30 km from the summit. We propose that contemporary subsidence, seismicity, and faulting are caused by (1) loading of the crust by more than 600 km 3 of erupted products plus a large volume of mafic intrusives; (2) east‐west extension in the western Basin and Range province; and, to a lesser extent, (3) crystallization or withdrawal of magma beneath the volcano. Thermal weakening of the subvolcanic crust by mafic intrusions facilitates subsidence and influences the distribution of earthquakes. Subsidence occurs mainly by aseismic creep within 25 km of the summit, where the crust has been heated and weakened by intrusions, and by normal faulting during episodic earthquake swarms in surrounding, cooler terrain.

California↗
USGS2012

Newberry Volcano—Central Oregon’s sleeping giant

Hidden in plain sight, Oregon's massive Newberry Volcano is the largest volcano in the Cascades volcanic arc and covers an area the size of Rhode Island. Unlike familiar cone-shaped Cascades volcanoes, Newberry was built into the shape of a broad shield by repeated eruptions over 500,000 years. About 65,000 years ago a major explosion and collapse event created a large volcanic depression (caldera) at its summit. Newberry last erupted about 1,300 years ago, and present-day hot springs and geologically young lava flows indicate that it could reawaken at any time. Because of its proximity to nearby communities, frequency and size of past eruptions, and geologic youthfulness, U.S. Geological Survey scientists are working to better understand volcanic activity at Newberry and closely monitor the volcano for signs of unrest.

Oregon↗
USGS2011

Geologic map of Medicine Lake volcano, northern California

Medicine Lake volcano forms a broad, seemingly nondescript highland, as viewed from any angle on the ground. Seen from an airplane, however, treeless lava flows are scattered across the surface of this potentially active volcanic edifice. Lavas of Medicine Lake volcano, which range in composition from basalt through rhyolite, cover more than 2,000 km 2 east of the main axis of the Cascade Range in northern California. Across the Cascade Range axis to the west-southwest is Mount Shasta, its towering volcanic neighbor, whose stratocone shape contrasts with the broad shield shape of Medicine Lake volcano. Hidden in the center of Medicine Lake volcano is a 7 km by 12 km summit caldera in which nestles its namesake, Medicine Lake. The flanks of Medicine Lake volcano, which are dotted with cinder cones, slope gently upward to the caldera rim, which reaches an elevation of nearly 8,000 ft (2,440 m). The maximum extent of lavas from this half-million-year-old volcano is about 80 km north-south by 45 km east-west. In postglacial time, 17 eruptions have added approximately 7.5 km 3 to its total estimated volume of 600 km 3 , and it is considered to be the largest by volume among volcanoes of the Cascades arc. The volcano has erupted nine times in the past 5,200 years, a rate more frequent than has been documented at all other Cascades arc volcanoes except Mount St. Helens.

California↗
USGS2009

A field guide to Newberry Volcano, Oregon

Newberry Volcano is located in central Oregon at the intersection of the Cascade Range and the High Lava Plains. Its lavas range in age from ca. 0.5 Ma to late Holocene. Erupted products range in composition from basalt through rhyolite and cover ~3000 km 2 . The most recent caldera-forming eruption occurred ~80,000 years ago. This trip will highlight a revised understanding of the volcano's history based on new detailed geologic work. Stops will also focus on evidence for ice and flooding on the volcano, as well as new studies of Holocene mafic eruptions. Newberry is one of the most accessible U.S. volcanoes, and this trip will visit a range of lava types and compositions including tholeiitic and calc-alkaline basalt flows, cinder cones, and rhyolitic domes and tuffs. Stops will include early distal basalts as well as the youngest intracaldera obsidian flow.

Oregon↗
USGS2009

Ice and water on Newberry Volcano, central Oregon

Newberry Volcano in central Oregon is dry over much of its vast area, except for the lakes in the caldera and the single creek that drains them. Despite the lack of obvious glacial striations and well-formed glacial moraines, evidence indicates that Newberry was glaciated. Meter-sized foreign blocks, commonly with smoothed shapes, are found on cinder cones as far as 7 km from the caldera rim. These cones also show evidence of shaping by flowing ice. In addition, multiple dry channels likely cut by glacial meltwater are common features of the eastern and western flanks of the volcano. On the older eastern flank of the volcano, a complex depositional and erosional history is recorded by lava flows, some of which flowed down channels, and interbedded sediments of probable glacial origin. Postglacial lava flows have subsequently filled some of the channels cut into the sediments. The evidence suggests that Newberry Volcano has been subjected to multiple glaciations.

Oregon↗
USGS2008

Eruptive history and tectonic setting of Medicine Lake Volcano, a large rear-arc volcano in the southern Cascades

Medicine Lake Volcano (MLV), located in the southern Cascades ∼ 55 km east-northeast of contemporaneous Mount Shasta, has been found by exploratory geothermal drilling to have a surprisingly silicic core mantled by mafic lavas. This unexpected result is very different from the long-held view derived from previous mapping of exposed geology that MLV is a dominantly basaltic shield volcano. Detailed mapping shows that < 6% of the ∼ 2000 km 2 of mapped MLV lavas on this southern Cascade Range shield-shaped edifice are rhyolitic and dacitic, but drill holes on the edifice penetrated more than 30% silicic lava. Argon dating yields ages in the range ∼ 475 to 300 ka for early rhyolites. Dates on the stratigraphically lowest mafic lavas at MLV fall into this time frame as well, indicating that volcanism at MLV began about half a million years ago. Mafic compositions apparently did not dominate until ∼ 300 ka. Rhyolite eruptions were scarce post-300 ka until late Holocene time. However, a dacite episode at ∼ 200 to ∼ 180 ka included the volcano's only ash-flow tuff, which was erupted from within the summit caldera. At ∼ 100 ka, compositionally distinctive high-Na andesite and minor dacite built most of the present caldera rim. Eruption of these lavas was followed soon after by several large basalt flows, such that the combined area covered by eruptions between 100 ka and postglacial time amounts to nearly two-thirds of the volcano's area. Postglacial eruptive activity was strongly episodic and also covered a disproportionate amount of area. The volcano has erupted 9 times in the past 5200 years, one of the highest rates of late Holocene eruptive activity in the Cascades. Estimated volume of MLV is ∼ 600 km 3 , giving an overall effusion rate of ∼ 1.2 km 3 per thousand years, although the rate for the past 100 kyr may be only half that. During much of the volcano's history, both dry HAOT (high-alumina olivine tholeiite) and hydrous calcalkaline basalts erupted together in close temporal and spatial proximity. Petrologic studies indicate that the HAOT magmas were derived by dry melting of spinel peridotite mantle near the crust mantle boundary. Subduction-derived H 2 O-rich fluids played an important role in the generation of calcalkaline magmas. Petrology, geochemistry and proximity indicate that MLV is part of the Cascades magmatic arc and not a Basin and Range volcano, although Basin and Range extension impinges on the volcano and strongly influences its eruptive style. MLV may be analogous to Mount Adams in southern Washington, but not, as sometimes proposed, to the older distributed back-arc Simcoe Mountains volcanic field.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS2008

Chemical Analyses of Pre-Holocene Rocks from Medicine Lake Volcano and Vicinity, Northern California

Chemical analyses are presented in an accompanying table (Table 1) for more than 600 pre-Holocene rocks collected at and near Medicine Lake Volcano, northern California. The data include major-element X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analyses for all of the rocks plus XRF trace element data for most samples, and instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA) trace element data for many samples. In addition, a limited number of analyses of Na2O and K2O by flame photometry (FP) are included as well assome wet chemical analyses of FeO, H2O+/-, and CO2. Latitude and longitude location information is provided for all samples. This data set is intended to accompany the geologic map of Medicine Lake Volcano (Donnelly-Nolan, in press); map unit designations are given for each sample collected from the map area.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2007

Volcano Hazards Assessment for Medicine Lake Volcano, Northern California

Medicine Lake volcano (MLV) is a very large shield-shaped volcano located in northern California where it forms part of the southern Cascade Range of volcanoes. It has erupted hundreds of times during its half-million-year history, including nine times during the past 5,200 years, most recently 950 years ago. This record represents one of the highest eruptive frequencies among Cascade volcanoes and includes a wide variety of different types of lava flows and at least two explosive eruptions that produced widespread fallout. Compared to those of a typical Cascade stratovolcano, eruptive vents at MLV are widely distributed, extending 55 km north-south and 40 km east-west. The total area covered by MLV lavas is >2,000 km2, about 10 times the area of Mount St. Helens, Washington. Judging from its long eruptive history and its frequent eruptions in recent geologic time, MLV will erupt again. Although the probability of an eruption is very small in the next year (one chance in 3,600), the consequences of some types of possible eruptions could be severe. Furthermore, the documented episodic behavior of the volcano indicates that once it becomes active, the volcano could continue to erupt for decades, or even erupt intermittently for centuries, and very likely from multiple vents scattered across the edifice. Owing to its frequent eruptions, explosive nature, and proximity to regional infrastructure, MLV has been designated a 'high threat volcano' by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Volcano Early Warning System assessment. Volcanic eruptions are typically preceded by seismic activity, but with only two seismometers located high on the volcano and no other USGS monitoring equipment in place, MLV is at present among the most poorly monitored Cascade volcanoes.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2007

Chronology of postglacial eruptive activity and calculation of eruption probabilities for Medicine Lake volcano, northern California

Medicine Lake volcano has had 4 eruptive episodes in its postglacial history (since 13,000 years ago) comprising 16 eruptions. Time intervals between events within the episodes are relatively short, whereas time intervals between the episodes are much longer. An updated radiocarbon chronology for these eruptions is presented that uses paleomagnetic data to constrain the choice of calibrated ages. This chronology is used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to model the data for time intervals between eruptions. The mixed exponential distribution is the best match to the data and provides estimates for the conditional probability of a future eruption given the time since the last eruption. The probability of an eruption at Medicine Lake volcano in the next year from today is 0.00028.

California↗