Status report on the Long-Term Experimental and Management Plan (LTEMP) Metrics for the Glen Canyon Dam adaptive management program
No abstract available.
Arizona, Nevada↗
Geology topics
Josh Korman
Publications and source records attributed to Josh Korman.
A literature review and hypsometric analysis to support decisions on trout management flows on the Colorado River downstream from Glen Canyon Dam
Executive Summary Fish stranding has been studied in select rivers worldwide, often with the purpose of determining how to mitigate adverse effects of dam operations on highly valued salmon and trout populations. However, where a reduction in trout population size is desired by resource managers, as is the case downstream of the Glen Canyon Dam on the Colorado River, flow manipulations termed trout management flows (TMFs) may be used to optimize fish stranding and mortality. To inform the design and implementation of potential future TMFs, we reviewed relevant literature to identify key factors that influence fish stranding. We found that key factors were highly interdependent and site-specific, but general trends suggest that down-ramping (decreasing flow) at rapid rates in daytime during the late spring to summer emergence period would lead to stranding of age-0 rainbow trout in shallow shoreline habitat. A hypsometric analysis was then used to predict stranding risk for age-0 rainbow trout in Glen Canyon for a range of TMFs, which incorporated existing bathymetric data and flow and habitat suitability models. Our results indicate that a TMF with a steady high flow ranging from 12,000 to 16,000 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) combined with a minimum flow ranging from 3,000 to 5,000 ft 3 /s may effectively strand age-0 fish while also minimizing risk to water storage in Lake Powell and other resources. This strategy implemented under normal hydropeaking operations was predicted to lead to a substantive stranding risk when paired with low flows of 5,000 ft 3 /s, and especially 3,000 ft 3 /s. However, there remains uncertainty associated with elements of implementing an effective TMF downstream from Glen Canyon Dam. The main uncertainties include (1) the down-ramp rate that maximizes stranding of age-0 trout, (2) the duration of drawdown to maximize stranding mortality while minimizing impact to downstream resources, (3) duration of high flows required for age-0 fish to colonize newly created shoreline habitat (this is only for certain TMF hydrographs), (4) number of repetitions of TMF cycles to minimize compensatory survival response, and (5) recruitment threshold of both rainbow and brown trout populations to trigger TMF implementation.
Arizona↗
U.S. Geological Survey Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center: Proceedings of the fiscal year 2023 annual reporting meeting to the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program
This proceedings is prepared for the USBR and Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP) to account for work conducted and products delivered in FY 2023 by SBSC's Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) and to inform the Technical Work Group of science conducted by GCMRC and its cooperators in support of the GCDAMP. It includes a summary of accomplishments, modifications to work plans, and results related to projects included in GCMRC’s FY 2021-23 Triennial Work Plan. This work was done to support the 11 resource goals identified in the Glen Canyon Dam Long-Term Experimental and Management Plan (LTEMP) Environmental Impact Statement and Record of Decision.
Arizona, Nevada, Utah↗
Declines in prey production during the collapse of a tailwater Rainbow Trout population are associated with changing reservoir conditions
Objective Understanding how energy moves through food webs and limits productivity at various trophic levels is a central question in aquatic ecology and can provide insight into drivers of fish population dynamics since many fish populations are food limited. In this study, we seek to better understand what factors drove a decline of >85% in the number of Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss found in the tailwater portion of the Colorado River below Glen Canyon Dam during 2012–2016. Methods We estimate the production of dominant prey using data from previously published studies of Rainbow Trout abundance and growth alongside drift and diet samples. We test how prey production correlates to both proximate (e.g., nutrients) and distal (e.g., limnological conditions in the upriver reservoir) drivers. Result Results suggest that gross consumption of invertebrate prey by the Rainbow Trout population declined from an annual mean of 423 to 69 kg/d. Daily production rates of dominant prey in aggregate declined from a high of 0.173 to 0.018 g·m −2 ·d −1 . Chironomids accounted for 70% of the decline in prey production. Foraging efficiency by Rainbow Trout (range, 0.99–0.67) was high across the range of prey production rates. After the Rainbow Trout population had declined by ~90%, prey consumption saturated at higher rates of prey production and the gross quantity of daily drift exported from the reach increased from 8.9 to 12.7 kg/d. Conclusion Rainbow Trout population dynamics are largely influenced by changes in prey production, which is itself driven by soluble reactive phosphorus ( SRP ) concentrations in the reservoir. The SRP model predicted that prey production would increase by 32 kg/d (SE, 9) for each 1 μg/L increase in SRP . These concentrations were indirectly influenced by reservoir hydrology and biogeochemistry, linkages that may extend far beyond the confines of this tailwater fishery and into the downstream reaches of the Grand Canyon's Colorado River ecosystem. Impact Statement We combined Rainbow Trout diet, growth, and abundance estimates with concentrations of drifting invertebrates to estimate the biomass of Rainbow Trout prey produced over time. Trends in prey biomass production track trends in phosphorous concentrations in the river.
Arizona↗
Drought related changes in water quality surpass effects of experimental flows on trout growth downstream of Lake Powell reservoir
Flows released from reservoirs are often modified to mitigate the negative ecosystem effects of dams. We estimated the effects of two experimental flows, fall-timed floods and elimination of sub-daily variation in flows on weekends, on growth rates of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Colorado River downstream from Glen Canyon Dam. Experimental flow effects were compared to effects of water temperature, phosphorous concentration, solar insolation, and competition, by fitting mixed effect von Bertalanffy models to ~ 10,000 observations of growth from mark-recapture between 2012 and 2021. There was strong support for models predicting faster growth during intervals with higher solar insolation, and lower water temperature and competition for prey. Effects of phosphorus and experimental flows were small and uncertain. Drought-related increases in dam release temperatures during summer and fall were predicted to result in severe weight loss for larger trout and could eventually threaten the viability of the population and the fishery it supports. The effects of water temperature and competition on fish growth substantially exceeded the effects of controlled floods and steadier flows.
Arizona, Utah↗
Population reproductive structure of Rainbow Trout determined by histology and advancing methods to assign sex and assess spawning capability
Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss have been intensively studied and gametogenesis has been described, but the use of reproductive indices in field studies has not been widely applied when assessing variability in growth or recruitment dynamics. We integrated descriptions for gametogenesis within the framework of standardized terminology for reproductive development in teleosts to develop sex-specific criteria for assignment of reproductive phases. We used these descriptions and histological analysis of gonad tissue collected from Rainbow Trout in the Colorado River downstream from Glen Canyon Dam to quantify season-, size-, and sex-specific variation in population reproductive structure. The accuracy of nonlethal methods (manual expression and ultrasonography) was evaluated for assigning sex by comparing estimates with those determined by histology. Rainbow Trout were sampled through an annual spawning cycle from October 2018 to April 2019. Spawning capable males were available across the entire period, with a higher proportion earlier in the season compared to later. Females were spawning capable in October, with a peak in February; by April, they were in the early developing phase, indicating that spawning had ended. Elevated levels of atresia (19% for fall spawners) and evidence for delayed maturation were identified, suggesting energetic limitations on the reproductive potential of the population. For both sexes, the probability of being spawning capable increased with fork length, with minimum sizes of ≥283 mm for females and ≥187 mm for males. Sex assignment using ultrasonography was more accurate (46%) than manual expression of gametes (9%), as only a small proportion of males and females expressed gametes. Probabilities of correct sex assignment using ultrasonography were strongly influenced by reproductive phase, with spawning capable fish (females: 100%; males: 77%) having significantly higher probabilities of correct sex assignment compared to immature fish. Furthermore, probabilities of correct sex assignment increased with fish size and were higher for females than for males. Results provide a framework for quantifying spawning capability and population reproductive structure in ongoing research to better understand the drivers of recruitment variability in aquatic ecosystems.
Arizona↗
As the prey thickens: Rainbow trout select prey based upon width not length
Drift-feeding fish are typically considered size-selective predators. Yet, few studies have explicitly tested which aspect of prey “size” best explains size selection by drift-foraging fish. Here, we develop a Bayesian discrete choice model to evaluate how attributes of both prey and predator simultaneously influence size-selective foraging. We apply the model to a large dataset of paired invertebrate drift ( n = 784) and rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) diets ( n = 1028). We characterized prey “size” using six metrics (length, width, area, hemispherical area, volume, mass) and used pseudo- R 2 to determine which metric best explained observed prey selection across seven taxa. We found that rainbow trout are positively size-selective, they are selecting prey based upon differences in prey width, and size-selectivity increases with fish length. Rainbow trout demonstrated strong selection for the adult and pupae stages of aquatic insects relative to their larval stages. Our study provides strong empirical evidence for size-selective foraging in rainbow trout and demonstrates prey selection is based primarily upon width, not length or area as has been widely reported.
Arizona↗
Changes in prey, turbidity, and competition reduce somatic growth and cause the collapse of a fish population
Somatic growth exerts strong control on patterns in the abundance of animal populations via effects on maturation, fecundity, and survival rates of juveniles and adults. In this paper, we quantify abiotic and biotic drivers of rainbow trout growth in the Colorado River, AZ, and the resulting impact on spatial and temporal variation in abundance. Inferences are based on approximately 10,000 observations of individual growth grates obtained through an intensive mark‐recapture effort conducted over five years (2012‐2016) in a 130 km‐long study segment downstream of Glen Canyon Dam. Prey availability, turbidity‐driven feeding efficiency, and intra‐specific competition were the dominant drivers of rainbow trout growth. Discharge, water temperature, and solar insulation were also evaluated but had a smaller influence. Mixed‐effect models explained 79‐82% of the variability in observed growth rates, with fixed covariate effects explaining 79‐87% of the total variation in growth parameters across five reaches and 18 quarterly sampling intervals. Reductions in growth owing in part to a phosphorous‐driven decline in prey availability, led to substantive weight loss and poor fish condition. This in turn lowered survival rates and delayed maturation, which led to a rapid decline in abundance and later recruitments. Reductions in feeding efficiency, due to episodic inputs of fine sediment from tributaries, and warmer water temperatures, contributed to reduced growth in downstream reaches, which led to more severe declines in abundance. Somatic growth rates increased following the population collapse due to reduced competition, and in the absence of substantive increases in prey availability. Our study elucidates important linkages between abiotic and biotic factors, somatic growth, and vital rates, and demonstrates how variation in somatic growth influences temporal and spatial patterns in abundance.
Arizona↗
Inferring species interactions through joint mark–recapture analysis
Introduced species are frequently implicated in declines of native species. In many cases, however, evidence linking introduced species to native declines is weak. Failure to make strong inferences regarding the role of introduced species can hamper attempts to predict population viability and delay effective management responses. For many species, mark–recapture analysis is the more rigorous form of demographic analysis. However, to our knowledge, there are no mark–recapture models that allow for joint modeling of interacting species. Here, we introduce a two‐species mark–recapture population model in which the vital rates (and capture probabilities) of one species are allowed to vary in response to the abundance of the other species. We use a simulation study to explore bias and choose an approach to model selection. We then use the model to investigate species interactions between endangered humpback chub ( Gila cypha ) and introduced rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) in the Colorado River between 2009 and 2016. In particular, we test hypotheses about how two environmental factors (turbidity and temperature), intraspecific density dependence, and rainbow trout abundance are related to survival, growth, and capture of juvenile humpback chub. We also project the long‐term effects of different rainbow trout abundances on adult humpback chub abundances. Our simulation study suggests this approach has minimal bias under potentially challenging circumstances (i.e., low capture probabilities) that characterized our application and that model selection using indicator variables could reliably identify the true generating model even when process error was high. When the model was applied to rainbow trout and humpback chub, we identified negative relationships between rainbow trout abundance and the survival, growth, and capture probability of juvenile humpback chub. Effects on interspecific interactions on survival and capture probability were strongly supported, whereas support for the growth effect was weaker. Environmental factors were also identified to be important and in many cases stronger than interspecific interactions, and there was still substantial unexplained variation in growth and survival rates. The general approach presented here for combining mark–recapture data for two species is applicable in many other systems and could be modified to model abundance of the invader via other modeling approaches.
Ecology↗
Estimating disperser abundance using open population models that incorporate data from continuous detection PIT arrays
Autonomous passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag antenna systems continuously detect individually marked organisms at one or more fixed points over long time periods. Estimating abundance using data from autonomous antennae can be challenging, because these systems do not detect unmarked individuals. Here we pair PIT antennae data from a tributary with mark-recapture sampling data in a mainstem river to estimate the number of fish moving from the mainstem to the tributary. We then use our model to estimate abundance of non-native rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss that move from the Colorado River to the Little Colorado River (LCR), the latter of which is important spawning and rearing habitat for federally-endangered humpback chub Gila cypha. We estimate 226 rainbow trout (95% CI: 127-370) entered the LCR from October 2013-April 2014. We discuss the challenges of incorporating detections from autonomous PIT antenna systems into mark-recapture population models, particularly in regards to using information about spatial location to estimate movement and detection probabilities.
Colorado River↗
Trends in Rainbow Trout recruitment, abundance, survival, and growth during a boom-and-bust cycle in a tailwater fishery
Data from a large-scale mark-recapture study was used in an open population model to determine the cause for long-term trends in growth and abundance of a Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss population in the tailwater of Glen Canyon Dam, AZ. Reduced growth affected multiple life stages and processes causing negative feedbacks that regulated the abundance of the population, including: higher mortality of larger fish; lower rates of recruitment (young of year) in years when growth was reduced; and lower rates of sexual maturation the following year. High and steady flows during spring and summer of 2011 resulted in very large recruitment event. The population declined 10-fold by 2016 due a combination of lower recruitment and reduced survival of larger trout. Survival rates for trout ≥ 225 mm in 2014, 2015, and 2016 were 11%, 21%, and 22% lower than average survival rates between 2012 and 2013, respectively. Abundance at the end of the study would have been three- to five-fold higher had survival rates for larger trout remained at the elevated levels estimated for 2012 and 2013. Growth declined between 2012 and 2014 owing to reduced prey availability, which led to very poor fish condition by fall of 2014 (~0.9-0.95). Poor condition in turn resulted in low survival rates of larger fish during fall of 2014 and winter of 2015, which contributed to the population collapse. In Glen Canyon, large recruitment events driven by high flows can lead to increases in the population that cannot be sustained due to limitations in prey supply. In the absence of being able to regulate prey supply, flows which reduce the probability of large recruitment events can be used to avoid boom-and-bust population cycles. Our study demonstrates that mark-recapture is a very informative approach for understanding the dynamics of tailwater trout populations.
Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗
Effects of environmental covariates and density on the catchability of fish populations and interpretation of catch per unit effort trends
Article for outlet: Fisheries Research. Abstract: Quantifying temporal and spatial trends in abundance or relative abundance is required to evaluate effects of harvest and changes in habitat for exploited and endangered fish populations. In many cases, the proportion of the population or stock that is captured (catchability or capture probability) is unknown but is often assumed to be constant over space and time. We used data from a large-scale mark-recapture study to evaluate the extent of spatial and temporal variation, and the effects of fish density, fish size, and environmental covariates, on the capture probability of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Colorado River, AZ. Estimates of capture probability for boat electrofishing varied 5-fold across five reaches, 2.8-fold across the range of fish densities that were encountered, 2.1-fold over 19 trips, and 1.6-fold over five fish size classes. Shoreline angle and turbidity were the best covariates explaining variation in capture probability across reaches and trips. Patterns in capture probability were driven by changes in gear efficiency and spatial aggregation, but the latter was more important. Failure to account for effects of fish density on capture probability when translating a historical catch per unit effort time series into a time series of abundance, led to 2.5-fold underestimation of the maximum extent of variation in abundance over the period of record, and resulted in unreliable estimates of relative change in critical years. Catch per unit effort surveys have utility for monitoring long-term trends in relative abundance, but are too imprecise and potentially biased to evaluate population response to habitat changes or to modest changes in fishing effort.
Fisheries Research↗
Incorporating temporal heterogeneity in environmental conditions into a somatic growth model
Evaluating environmental effects on fish growth can be challenging because environmental conditions may vary at relatively fine temporal scales compared to sampling occasions. Here we develop a Bayesian state-space growth model to evaluate effects of monthly environmental data on growth of fish that are observed less frequently (e.g., from mark-recapture data where time between captures can range from months to years). We assess effects of temperature, turbidity duration, food availability, flow variability, and trout abundance on subadult humpback chub (Gila cypha) growth in two rivers, the Colorado River (CR) and the Little Colorado River (LCR), and we use out-of-sample prediction to rank competing models. Environmental covariates explained a high proportion of the variation in growth in both rivers; however, the best growth models were river-specific and included either positive temperature and turbidity duration effects (CR) or positive temperature and food availability effects (LCR). Our approach to analyzing environmental controls on growth should be applicable in other systems where environmental data vary over relatively short time scales compared to animal observations.
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
Decision analysis to support development of the Glen Canyon Dam long-term experimental and management plan
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and Argonne National Laboratory, completed a decision analysis to use in the evaluation of alternatives in the Environmental Impact Statement concerning the long-term management of water releases from Glen Canyon Dam and associated management activities. Two primary decision analysis methods, multicriteria decision analysis and the expected value of information, were used to evaluate the alternative strategies against the resource goals and to evaluate the influence of uncertainty. A total of 18 performance metrics associated with 8 out of 12 resource goals (fundamental objectives) were developed by the Bureau of Reclamation and National Park Service in partnership with subject-matter teams composed of Federal, State, tribal, and private experts. A total of 19 long-term strategies associated with 7 alternatives were developed by the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, Argonne National Laboratory, U.S. Geological Survey, and Cooperating Agencies. The 19 long-term strategies were evaluated against the 18 performance metrics using a series of coupled simulation models, taking into account the effects of several important sources of uncertainty. A total of 27 Federal, State, tribal, and nongovernmental agencies were invited by the Assistant Secretary of Interior to participate in a swing-weighting exercise to understand the range of perspectives about how to place relative value on the resource goals and performance metrics; 14 of the 27 chose to participate. The results of the swing-weighting exercise were combined with the evaluation of the alternatives to complete a multicriteria decision analysis. The effects of uncertainty on the ranking of long-term strategies were evaluated through calculation of the value of information. The alternatives and their long-term strategies differed across performance metrics, producing unavoidable tradeoffs; thus, there was no long-term strategy that was dominated by another across all performance metrics. When the performance of each alternative was weighted across performance metrics, three alternatives (B, D, and G) were top-ranked depending on the set of weights proposed: Alternative B was favored by those stakeholders that placed a high value on hydropower; Alternative G was favored by those stakeholders that placed a high value on the restoration of natural processes, like beachbuilding and natural vegetation; and Alternative D was favored by the remaining stakeholders. Surprisingly, these rankings were not sensitive to the critical uncertainties that were evaluated; that is, the choice of a preferred long-term strategy was sensitive to the value-based judgment about how to place relative weight on the resource goals but was not sensitive to the uncertainties in the system dynamics that were evaluated in this analysis. The one area of uncertainty that did slightly affect the ranking of alternatives was the long-term pattern of hydrological input; because of this sensitivity, some attention to the possible effects of climate change is warranted. The results of the decision analysis are meant to serve as only one of many sources of information that can be used to evaluate the alternatives proposed in the Environmental Impact Statement. These results only focus on those resource goals for which quantitative performance metrics could be formulated and evaluated; there are other important aspects of the resource goals that also need to be considered. Not all the stakeholders who were invited to participate in the decision analysis chose to do so; thus, the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and U.S. Department of Interior may want to consider other input.
Arizona↗
Seasonal and spatial patterns of growth of rainbow trout in the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, AZ
Rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) have been purposely introduced in many regulated rivers, with inadvertent consequences on native fishes. We describe how trout growth rates and condition could be influencing trout population dynamics in a 130 km section of the Colorado River below Glen Canyon Dam based on a large-scale mark–recapture program where ∼8000 rainbow trout were recaptured over a 3-year period (2012–2014). There were strong temporal and spatial variations in growth in both length and weight as predicted from von Bertalanffy and bioenergetic models, respectively. There was more evidence for seasonal variation in the growth coefficient and annual variation in the asymptotic length. Bioenergetic models showed more variability for growth in weight across seasons and years than across reaches. These patterns were consistent with strong seasonal variation in invertebrate drift and effects of turbidity on foraging efficiency. Highest growth rates and relative condition occurred in downstream reaches with lower trout densities. Results indicate that reduction in rainbow trout abundance in Glen Canyon will likely increase trout size in the tailwater fishery and may reduce downstream dispersal into Grand Canyon.
Arizona↗
Using large-scale flow experiments to rehabilitate Colorado River ecosystem function in Grand Canyon: Basis for an adaptive climate-resilient strategy
Adaptive management of Glen Canyon Dam is improving downstream resources of the Colorado River in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area and Grand Canyon National Park. The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (AMP), a federal advisory committee of 25 members with diverse special interests tasked to advise the U.S. Department of the Interior), was established in 1997 in response to the 1992 Grand Canyon Protection Act. Adaptive management assumes that ecosystem responses to management policies are inherently complex and unpredictable, but that understanding and management can be improved through monitoring. Best known for its high-flow experiments intended to benefit physical and biological resources by simulating one aspect of pre-dam conditions—floods, the AMP promotes collaboration among tribal, recreation, hydropower, environmental, water and other natural resource management interests. Monitoring has shown that high flow experiments move limited new tributary sand inputs below the dam from the bottom of the Colorado River to shorelines; rebuilding eroded sandbars that support camping areas and other natural and cultural resources. Spring-timed high flows have also been shown to stimulate aquatic productivity by disturbing the river bed below the dam in Glen Canyon. Understanding about how nonnative tailwater rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ), and downstream endangered humpback chub ( Gila cypha ) respond to dam operations has also increased, but this learning has mostly posed “surprise” adaptation opportunities to managers. Since reoperation of the dam to Modified Low Fluctuating Flows in 1996, rainbow trout now benefit from more stable daily flows and high spring releases, but possibly at a risk to humpback chub and other native fishes downstream. In contrast, humpback chub have so far proven robust to all flows, and native fish have increased under the combination of warmer river temperatures associated with reduced storage in Lake Powell, and a system-wide reduction in trout from 2000-06, possibly due to several years of natural reproduction under limited food supply. Uncertainties about dam operations and ecosystem responses remain, including how native and nonnative fish will interact and respond to possible increased river temperatures under drier basin conditions. Ongoing assessment of operating policies by the AMP’s diverse stakeholders represents a major commitment to the river’s valued resources, while surprise learning opportunities can also help identify a resilient climate-change strategy for co-managing nonnative and endangered native fish, sandbar habitats and other river resources in a region with already complex and ever-increasing water demands.
Arizona↗
Effects of increased discharge on spawning and age-0 recruitment of rainbow trout in the Colorado River at Lees Ferry, Arizona
Negative interactions of Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss with endangered Humpback Chub Gila cypha pose challenges to the operation of Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) to manage for both species in the Colorado River. Operations to enhance the Rainbow Trout tailwater fishery may lead to an increase in downstream movement of the trout to areas where they are likely to interact with Humpback Chub. We evaluated the effects of dam operations on age-0 Rainbow Trout in the tailwater fishery to inform managers about how GCD operations could benefit a tailwater fishery for Rainbow Trout; although this could affect a Humpback Chub population farther downstream. A near year-long increase in discharge at GCD in 2011 enabled us to evaluate whether high and stable flows led to increased spawning and production of age-0 Rainbow Trout compared with other years. Rainbow Trout spawning was monitored by fitting a model to observed redd counts to estimate the number of redds created over a spawning season. Data collected during electrofishing trips in July–September and November were used to acquire age-0 trout population and mortality rate estimates. We found that high and stable flows in 2011 resulted in 3,062 redds (1.7 times the mean of all survey years) and a population estimate of 686,000 age-0 Rainbow Trout (second highest on record). Despite high initial abundance, mortality remained low through the year (0.0043%/d) resulting in significant recruitment with a record high November population estimate of 214,000 age-0 Rainbow Trout. Recent monitoring indicates this recruitment event was followed by an increase in downstream migration, which may lead to increased interactions with downstream populations of Humpback Chub. Consequently, while our results indicate that manipulating flow at GCD can be used to manage Rainbow Trout spawning and recruitment, fisheries managers should use flow manipulation in moderation to minimize downstream migration in order to reduce negative interactions with other species in the Colorado River.
Arizona↗
Assessing juvenile native fish demographic responses to a steady flow experiment in a large regulated river
The Colorado River below Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona, is part of an adaptive management programme which optimizes dam operations to improve various resources in the downstream ecosystem within Grand Canyon. Understanding how populations of federally endangered humpback chub Gila cypha respond to these dam operations is a high priority. Here, we test hypotheses concerning temporal variation in juvenile humpback chub apparent survival rates and abundance by comparing estimates between hydropeaking and steady discharge regimes over a 3-year period (July 2009–July 2012). The most supported model ignored flow type (steady vs hydropeaking) and estimated a declining trend in daily apparent survival rate across years (99.90%, 99.79% and 99.67% for 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively). Corresponding abundance of juvenile humpback chub increased temporally; open population model estimates ranged from 615 to 2802 individuals/km, and closed model estimates ranged from 94 to 1515 individuals/km. These changes in apparent survival and abundance may reflect broader trends, or simply represent inter-annual variation. Important findings include (i) juvenile humpback chub are currently surviving and recruiting in the mainstem Colorado River with increasing abundance; (ii) apparent survival does not benefit from steady fall discharges from Glen Canyon Dam; and (iii) direct assessment of demographic parameters for juvenile endangered fish are possible and can rapidly inform management actions in regulated rivers.
River Research and Applications↗