Geology topics

Jory Seth Hecht

Publications and source records attributed to Jory Seth Hecht.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Benchmark dataset of historical annual peak floods classified by causal mechanisms for select US river basins

Considering the causal mechanisms of floods can improve estimates of flood recurrence intervals given that certain flood types can be associated with higher magnitude and more damaging floods. However, few verified datasets of flood types are available to validate the semiautomated and automated classification algorithms needed to apply flood-typing across large hydrologically diverse regions. To address this gap, a benchmark dataset of manually classified flood types was compiled for 1,763 annual maximum flood peaks from 18 stream gauges in six different river basins across the conterminous United States from 1851 to 2022. Within each basin, three representative stream gauges were selected for manual flood typing. A flexible classification framework is introduced that facilitates flood typing across hydrologically diverse regions and accommodates unique combinations of weather and antecedent watershed conditions specific to each region. Floods were manually typed by domain experts using multiple lines of evidence to identify a primary surface water input of each flood (rainfall, snowmelt, or both) and, if relevant, associated storm type and secondary causal mechanisms characterizing antecedent watershed conditions. Across all the study basins, 49% of historical annual maximum flood peaks were attributable to rainfall, 28% to snowmelt, 22% to mixed precipitation, and 1% could not be assigned to a mechanism due to missing or incomplete data. The proposed flood-typing schema supports varying levels of flood typing specificity required for mixed population flood-frequency analysis, flood-type-specific design hydrographs, water quality response studies, and additional applications. This detailed, manually determined benchmark dataset serves as a resource that can be used developing and validating automated or machine learning-based algorithms capable of operationalizing expanded flood peak information.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2024

Low-flow period seasonality, trends, and climate linkages across the United States

Low-flow period properties, including timing, magnitude, and duration, influence many key processes for water resource managers and ecosystems. We computed annual low-flow period duration and timing metrics from 1951 to 2020 for 1032 conterminous United States (CONUS) streamgages and analyzed spatial patterns, trends through time, and relationships to climate. Results show northwestern and eastern CONUS streamgages had longer and more inter-annually consistent low-flow period durations, while central CONUS periods were shorter and more variable. Low-flow periods most often occurred in summer months but start and end dates occurred later in north-central and mountainous western CONUS, which have the greatest number of low flows during cold seasons. Low-flow periods are becoming longer in southeastern and northwestern CONUS but shorter in much of the rest of CONUS. Temperature was correlated with low-flow period duration in southeastern and northwestern CONUS, and precipitation was correlated with duration everywhere, but most strongly in eastern CONUS.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2023

Integrated water resources trend assessments: State of the science, challenges, and opportunities for advancement

Water is vital to human life and healthy ecosystems. Here we outline the current state of national-scale water resources trend assessments, identify key gaps, and suggest advancements to better address critical issues related to changes in water resources that may threaten human development or the environment. Questions like, “Do we have less suitable drinking water now than we had 20 years ago?” or “Are flood events more common now than they were in the past?” prompted improvements in data, trend estimation methods, and modeling frameworks to track changes in, and better understand how land use and climate influence four water resources domains: surface and groundwater quantity and quality. However, continued advancement in trend assessments to better address issues related to changes in water availability is needed. Areas of need include more timely and efficient delivery of water resources trend results and improved capacity to estimate trends at unmonitored locations. Additional integration pieces include increased understanding of groundwater–surface water interactions, incorporation of both quantity and quality trends into water availability estimates, and the refinement of trend metrics to account for the competing needs of society and ecological integrity. Coupled with improved driver attribution studies, these components will better inform current and future water resources management.

Journal of the American Water Resource Association↗

USGS2023

Adjusting design floods for urbanization across groundwater-dominated watersheds of Long Island, NY

The magnitude and variability of floods have increased for many nontidal streams on Long Island (LI), NY since the mid-20th century. One of the most densely populated regions of the United States, LI has experienced amplified floods in step with increases in impervious land cover, storm, and sanitary sewers that have accompanied urban development. To better understand the drivers of observed flood trends and effects of urbanization, a nonstationary flood frequency analysis is conducted, using historical annual peak flow records from 17 gaged watersheds on LI using conditional moments based on physical covariates from a two-stage sequential robust linear regression procedure. Regression results indicate that urban development and precipitation are significant co-predictors of peak flows for LI watersheds that have undergone rapid development during the available peak flow record. In watersheds with less intense urbanization or that were fully developed before the peak flow record began, precipitation alone was a significant explanatory variable. Long-term baseflow patterns identified using a nonparametric smoother explained some patterns of decreasing peak flows and heteroskedasticity in the peak flow records. Fitting a log-Pearson III distribution with these conditional moments, floods corresponding to a 20% annual exceedance probability (AEP) are up to 80% higher under a nonstationary framework compared with stationary under current watershed conditions, and differ significantly (95% confidence) from stationary estimates for 6 out of 17 watersheds. Larger floods corresponding to 1% AEPs do not differ significantly between nonstationary and stationary estimates at a 95% confidence level. Nonmonotonic trends observed in two watersheds indicate that recent stormwater management practices, such as rerouting stormwater outfalls away from the channel, substantially reduce flood frequency. Reduced nonstationary flood quantile estimates at these two watersheds are 20 to 40% lower than stationary estimates when accounting for changing watershed conditions over time. Across LI, stormwater management and water-table fluctuations have increased peak flow variability, characteristic of a late phase urban adjustment period on LI. Results of this study demonstrate that a nonstationary framework is a necessary step forward toward a regional flood-frequency analysis for LI. This nonstationary framework will allow flood managers to update flood discharge estimates to current conditions that reflect altered relationships between urban cover and climate for more targeted planning of flood control, transportation infrastructure, and management of floodplain ecosystems.

New York↗

USGS2023

A conceptual workflow for projecting future riverine and coastal flood hazards to support the federal flood risk management standard

In 2021, the reinstatement of the Federal Flood Risk Management Standard (FFRMS) required federally funded projects to recognize potential increases in flood hazards over their service lives due to climate change or local anthropogenic perturbations. Recognizing that the state of the science had advanced since the implementation guidelines for this standard were published in 2015 (WRC, 2015, Appendix H), an interagency state-of-the-science review committee conceptualized a workflow to guide the mapping and risk communication of projected future flood hazards in both riverine and coastal settings. This five-element workflow connects climate, hydrologic, and hydraulic models, incorporates land and water management impacts and ongoing geomorphic changes, and can be tailored to the unique nature of different agency needs and resources. These conceptual workflows also provide a basis for a Climate-Informed Science Approach (CISA) implementation roadmap that identifies incremental steps for addressing the research and data gaps elucidated in our review. Many of these incremental steps present opportunities for interagency collaboration that would facilitate the rollout of the FFRMS in diverse riverine and coastal settings of the United States. We conduct case-study thought experiments to evaluate the implementation of the riverine and coastal workflows at three different locations in the United States: central Indiana, Galveston, Texas, and a small coastal community in western Alaska (Shaktoolik). Our thought experiments consider different project horizons, data availability, failure consequences, technical training requirements, and computational resources.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2022

A hydrologic perspective of major U.S. droughts

Drought is a recurring natural hazard that has substantial human and environmental impacts. Given continued global warming and associated climate change, there is concern that droughts could become more severe and longer lasting. To better monitor and understand drought development and persistence, it is helpful to understand the development and climatic drivers of past droughts. In this study we use monthly runoff percentiles to identify five major drought events in the conterminous United States (CONUS) from 1901 through 2020. For each drought event we examined spatial patterns of departures of mean monthly precipitation, temperature, soil moisture storage, and runoff for 2,107 hydrologic units (HUs) across the CONUS. Results indicated that precipitation deficits have been the primary driver of past major-drought events and temperature a secondary driver, even of the most recent drought event (September 1999 through September 2015) when positive temperature anomalies occurred over most of the CONUS. Additionally, negative soil moisture storage departures were more negative than runoff departures during the five drought events we examined, which emphasizes the importance of measuring both runoff and soil moisture to monitor drought conditions. We also examined the use of statistical persistence to develop short-term (i.e., 1 month) forecasts of runoff drought conditions in the CONUS by developing autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for each HU. Results indicated that persistence can be used to predict short-term changes in the spatial pattern of drought and the areal extent of drought, but that predictions of runoff magnitude for any particular site are often poor.

International Journal of Climatology↗

USGS2022

Going beyond low flows: Streamflow drought deficit and duration illuminate distinct spatiotemporal drought patterns and trends in the U.S. during the last century

Streamflow drought is a recurring challenge, and understanding spatiotemporal patterns of past droughts is needed to manage future water resources. We examined regional patterns in streamflow drought metrics and compared these metrics to low flow timing and magnitude using long-term daily records for 555 minimally disturbed watersheds. For each streamgage, we calculated streamflow drought duration (number of days) and deficit (flow volume below a specified threshold) for each climate year (April 1–March 31). We identified drought using five thresholds (2%–30%) and two approaches: variable thresholds with unique values for each day of the year, and a fixed threshold based on all period-of-record flows. We then analyzed drought trends using the Mann-Kendall test with persistence adjustment for 1921–2020, 1951–2020, and 1981–2020, and computed correlations between annual streamflow drought metrics and climate metrics using values from a monthly water balance model. Spatial patterns in drought metrics were consistent between variable and fixed approaches, though fixed threshold durations were typically longer and variable threshold deficits larger. High interannual variability in drought duration emerged in the central, interior west, and southwestern U.S., with high deficit variability in the interior west. Drought metrics were weakly correlated with low flow magnitude and timing, providing unique information. Drought duration and deficit increased in the southern and western U.S. for both 1951–2020 and 1981–2020, particularly using fixed thresholds, and paralleled trends in aridity. Projections of continued aridification for the southern and western U.S. may increase drought durations and deficits and intensify water availability impacts.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2022

Simulation experiments comparing nonstationary design-flood adjustments based on observed annual peak flows in the conterminous United States

While nonstationary flood frequency analysis (NSFFA) methods have proliferated, few studies have rigorously compared them for modeling changes in both the central tendency and variability of annual peak-flow series, also known as the annual maximum series (AMS), in hydrologically diverse areas. Through Monte Carlo experiments, we appraise five methods for updating estimates of 10- and 100-year floods at gauged sites using synthetic records based on sample moments and change trajectories of observed AMS in the conterminous United States (CONUS). We compare two methods that consider changes in both central tendency and variability - a Gamma generalized linear model estimated with weighted least squares and the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, Shape (GAMLSS) - with a distribution-free approach (quantile regression), and baseline cases assuming stationarity or only changes in central tendency. ‘Trend-space’ plots identify realistic AMS changes for which modeling trends in both central tendency and variability were warranted based on fractional root mean squared errors (fRMSE). They also reveal statistical properties of AMS under which NSFFA models perform especially well or poorly. For instance, quantile regression performed especially well (poorly) under strong negative (positive) skewness. Although the nonstationary LP3 distribution accommodates most AMS with trends well, the sensitivity of NSFFA model performance to different sample moments and trends suggests the need for more flexibility in prescribing design-flood adjustments in the CONUS. A follow-up comparison of regional NSFFA models pooling at-site AMS would further illuminate NSFFA guidance, especially for AMS with properties less conducive to NSFFA modeling, such as positive skewness and increasing variability.

Journal of Hydrology X↗

USGS2020

The next frontier: Making research more reproducible

Science and engineering rest on the concept of reproducibility. An important question for any study is: are the results reproducible? Can the results be recreated independently by other researchers or professionals? Research results need to be independently reproduced and validated before they are accepted as fact or theory. Across numerous fields like psychology, computer systems, and water resources there are problems to reproduce research results (Aarts et al. 2015; Collberg et al. 2014; Hutton et al. 2016; Stagge et al. 2019; Stodden et al. 2018). This editorial examines the challenges to reproduce research results and suggests community practices to overcome these challenges. Coordination is needed among the authors, journals, funders and institutions that produce, publish, and report research. Making research more reproducible will allow researchers, professionals, and students to more quickly understand and apply research in follow-on efforts and advance the field.

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management↗