Geology topics

John Risley

Publications and source records attributed to John Risley.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2019

Probability of streamflow permanence model (PROSPER): A spatially continuous model of annual streamflow permanence throughout the Pacific Northwest

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the PRObability of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, a GIS raster-based empirical model that provides streamflow permanence probabilities (probabilistic predictions) of a stream channel having year-round flow for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest region, U.S. The model provides annual predictions for 2004-2016 at a 30-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of climatic conditions and static physiographic variables associated with the upstream basin. Predictions correspond to any pixel on the channel network consistent with the medium resolution National Hydrography Dataset channel network stream grid. Total annual precipitation and percent forest cover were consistently the most important predictor variables among global and most subregional models, which had error rates between 17 and 22%. Probabilities were converted to wet and dry streamflow permanence classes with an associated confidence. Wet and dry classifications were used to derive descriptors that characterize the statistical and spatial distribution of streamflow permanence in three focal basins. Predicted dry channel segments account for 52 to 92% of the stream network across the three focal basins; streamflow permanence decreased during climatically drier years. Predictions are publicly available through the USGS StreamStats platform. Results demonstrate the utility of the PROSPER model as a tool for identifying areas that may be resilient or sensitive to drought conditions, allowing for management efforts that target protecting critical reaches. Importantly, PROSPER’s successful predictive performance can be improved with new datasets of streamflow permanence underscoring the importance of field observations.

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington↗

USGS2012

Watershed scale response to climate change--Sprague River Basin, Oregon

General Circulation Model simulations of future climate through 2099 project a wide range of possible scenarios. To determine the sensitivity and potential effect of long-term climate change on the freshwater resources of the United States, the U.S. Geological Survey Global Change study, "An integrated watershed scale response to global change in selected basins across the United States" was started in 2008. The long-term goal of this national study is to provide the foundation for hydrologically based climate change studies across the nation. Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Sprague River Basin near Chiloquin, Oregon.

Oregon↗

USGS2011

Statistical Comparisons of watershed scale response to climate change in selected basins across the United States

In an earlier global climate-change study, air temperature and precipitation data for the entire twenty-first century simulated from five general circulation models were used as input to precalibrated watershed models for 14 selected basins across the United States. Simulated daily streamflow and energy output from the watershed models were used to compute a range of statistics. With a side-by-side comparison of the statistical analyses for the 14 basins, regional climatic and hydrologic trends over the twenty-first century could be qualitatively identified. Low-flow statistics (95% exceedance, 7-day mean annual minimum, and summer mean monthly streamflow) decreased for almost all basins. Annual maximum daily streamflow also decreased in all the basins, except for all four basins in California and the Pacific Northwest. An analysis of the supply of available energy and water for the basins indicated that ratios of evaporation to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration to precipitation for most of the basins will increase. Probability density functions (PDFs) were developed to assess the uncertainty and multimodality in the impact of climate change on mean annual streamflow variability. Kolmogorov?Smirnov tests showed significant differences between the beginning and ending twenty-first-century PDFs for most of the basins, with the exception of four basins that are located in the western United States. Almost none of the basin PDFs were normally distributed, and two basins in the upper Midwest had PDFs that were extremely dispersed and skewed.

Earth Interactions↗

USGS2010

Development of an Environmental Flow Framework for the McKenzie River Basin, Oregon

The McKenzie River is a tributary to the Willamette River in northwestern Oregon. The McKenzie River is approximately 90 miles in length and has a drainage area of approximately 1,300 square miles. Two major flood control dams, a hydropower dam complex, and two hydropower canals significantly alter streamflows in the river. The structures reduce the magnitude and frequency of large and small floods while increasing the annual 7-day minimum streamflows. Stream temperatures also have been altered by the dams and other anthropogenic factors, such as the removal of riparian vegetation and channel simplification. Flow releases from one of the flood control dams are cooler in the summer and warmer in the fall in comparison to unregulated flow conditions before the dam was constructed. In 2006, the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality listed a total of 112.4, 6.3, and 55.7 miles of the McKenzie River basin mainstem and tributary stream reaches as thermally impaired for salmonid rearing, salmonid spawning, and bull trout, respectively. The analyses in this report, along with previous studies, indicate that dams have altered downstream channel morphology and ecologic communities. In addition to reducing the magnitude and frequency of floods, dams have diminished sediment transport by trapping bed material. Other anthropogenic factors, such as bank stabilization, highway construction, and reductions of in-channel wood, also have contributed to the loss of riparian habitat. A comparison of aerial photography taken in 1939 and 2005 showed substantial decreases in secondary channels, gravel bars, and channel sinuosity, particularly along the lower alluvial reaches of the McKenzie River. In addition, bed armoring and incision may contribute to habitat degradation, although further study is needed to determine the extent of these processes. Peak streamflow reduction has led to vegetation colonization and stabilization of formerly active bar surfaces. The large flood control dams on Blue River and South Fork McKenzie River likely have had the greatest effect on downstream habitats because these sediment and flood-rich tributaries historically contributed a disproportionate volume of bed material, wood, and peak flows in comparison with the spring-fed tributaries of the upper McKenzie River basin. The ecological effects of the dams were examined by focusing on nine exemplar aquatic and terrestrial species, including spring Chinook salmon, bull trout, Oregon chub, Pacific and western brook lamprey, red-legged frog, western pond turtle, alder, and cottonwood. The changes caused by the dams to streamflow hydrograph affect all these and other species in complex ways, although a few commonalities are apparent. A loss of channel complexity in the McKenzie River basin, which is associated with the reduction in flood events and widespread channel stabilization, is the primary factor related to the observed population declines for all nine exemplar species. The dams also have caused direct ecological effects by blocking access to habitat, changing the amount and timing of available critical habitat, and changing water temperature during important seasons for different life stages.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2008

Estimating Flow-Duration and Low-Flow Frequency Statistics for Unregulated Streams in Oregon

Flow statistical datasets, basin-characteristic datasets, and regression equations were developed to provide decision makers with surface-water information needed for activities such as water-quality regulation, water-rights adjudication, biological habitat assessment, infrastructure design, and water-supply planning and management. The flow statistics, which included annual and monthly period of record flow durations (5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, and 95th percent exceedances) and annual and monthly 7-day, 10-year (7Q10) and 7-day, 2-year (7Q2) low flows, were computed at 466 streamflow-gaging stations at sites with unregulated flow conditions throughout Oregon and adjacent areas of neighboring States. Regression equations, created from the flow statistics and basin characteristics of the stations, can be used to estimate flow statistics at ungaged stream sites in Oregon. The study area was divided into 10 regression modeling regions based on ecological, topographic, geologic, hydrologic, and climatic criteria. In total, 910 annual and monthly regression equations were created to predict the 7 flow statistics in the 10 regions. Equations to predict the five flow-duration exceedance percentages and the two low-flow frequency statistics were created with Ordinary Least Squares and Generalized Least Squares regression, respectively. The standard errors of estimate of the equations created to predict the 5th and 95th percent exceedances had medians of 42.4 and 64.4 percent, respectively. The standard errors of prediction of the equations created to predict the 7Q2 and 7Q10 low-flow statistics had medians of 51.7 and 61.2 percent, respectively. Standard errors for regression equations for sites in western Oregon were smaller than those in eastern Oregon partly because of a greater density of available streamflow-gaging stations in western Oregon than eastern Oregon. High-flow regression equations (such as the 5th and 10th percent exceedances) also generally were more accurate than the low-flow regression equations (such as the 95th percent exceedance and 7Q10 low-flow statistic). The regression equations predict unregulated flow conditions in Oregon. Flow estimates need to be adjusted if they are used at ungaged sites that are regulated by reservoirs or affected by water-supply and agricultural withdrawals if actual flow conditions are of interest. The regression equations are installed in the USGS StreamStats Web-based tool (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/index.html, accessed July 16, 2008). StreamStats provides users with a set of annual and monthly flow-duration and low-flow frequency estimates for ungaged sites in Oregon in addition to the basin characteristics for the sites. Prediction intervals at the 90-percent confidence level also are automatically computed.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2006

Usoi Dam wave overtopping and flood routing in the Bartang and Panj Rivers, Tajikistan

The Usoi dam was created in the winter of 1911 after an enormous seismogenic rock slide completely blocked the valley of the Bartang River in the Pamir Mountains of southeastern Tajikistan. At present the dam impounds 17 million cubic meters of water in Lake Sarez. Flood volume and discharge estimates were made for several landslide generated floods that could overtop the dam. For landslide volumes of 200, 500, and 1,000 million cubic meters, estimated overtopping flood volumes were 2, 22, and 87 million cubic meters of water, respectively. Estimated peak discharge at the dam for these three flood scenarios were 57,000, 490,000, and 1,580,000 cubic meters per second, based on triangular hydrographs of 70-, 90-, and 110-second durations, respectively. Flood-routing simulations were made for the three landslide-induced overtopping floods over a 530-kilometer reach of the Bartang and Panj Rivers below the Usoi dam. A one-dimensional flow model using a Riemann numerical solution technique was selected for the study. A constant 50-meter wide rectangular channel, which represented the mean channel width, was used for the entire reach. A roughness coefficient of 0.038, appropriate for steep mountainous streams, also was used for the entire reach. For the 87 million cubic meter volume overtopping flood scenario, the peak flows were approximately 1,100, 800, and 550 cubic meters per second at locations 50, 100, and 150 kilometers downstream of the dam, respectively. The model was also used to simulate the less likely scenario of an instantaneous dam breach and draining of the total volume of the lake. Simulated peak flows were approximately 64,000, 52,000, 40,000, and 20,000 cubic meters per second at locations 50, 100, 150, and 530 kilometers downstream of the Usoi dam.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2004

The case for regime-based water quality standards

Conventional water quality standards have been successful in reducing the concentration of toxic substances in US waters. However, conventional standards are based on simple thresholds and are therefore poorly structured to address human-caused imbalances in dynamic, natural water quality parameters, such as nutrients, sediment, and temperature. A more applicable type of water quality standarda??a a??regime standarda??a??would describe desirable distributions of conditions over space and time within a stream network. By mandating the protection and restoration of the aquatic ecosystem dynamics that are required to support beneficial uses in streams, well-designed regime standards would facilitate more effective strategies for management of natural water quality parameters.

BioScience↗