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Geology topics

John R. Sauer

Publications and source records attributed to John R. Sauer.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2011

Monitoring bald eagles using lists of nests: Response to Watts and Duerr

The post-delisting monitoring plan for bald eagles ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) roposed use of a dual-frame sample design, in which sampling of known nest sites in combination with additional area-based sampling is used to estimate total number of nesting bald eagle pairs. Watts and Duerr (2010) used data from repeated observations of bald eagle nests in Virginia, USA to estimate a nest turnover rate and used this rate to simulate decline in number of occupied nests in list nests over time. Results of Watts and Duerr suggest that, given the rates of loss of nests from the list of known nest sites in Virginia, the list information will be of little value to sampling unless lists are constantly updated. Those authors criticize the plan for not placing sufficient emphasis on updating and maintaining lists of bald eagle nests. Watts and Duerr's metric of turnover rate does not distinguish detectability or temporary nonuse of nests from permanent loss of nests and likely overestimates turnover rate. We describe a multi-state capture–recapture model that allows appropriate estimation of rates of loss of nests, and we use the model to estimate rates of loss from a sample of nests from Maine, USA. The post-delisting monitoring plan addresses the need to maintain and update the lists of nests, and we show that dual frame sampling is an effective approach for sampling nesting bald eagle populations.

Virginia↗
USGS2011

Global biodiversity: Indicators of recent declines

In 2002, world leaders committed, through the Convention on Biological Diversity, to achieve a significant reduction in the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. We compiled 31 indicators to report on progress toward this target. Most indicators of the state of biodiversity (covering species’ population trends, extinction risk, habitat extent and condition, and community composition) showed declines, with no significant recent reductions in rate, whereas indicators of pressures on biodiversity (including resource consumption, invasive alien species, nitrogen pollution, overexploitation, and climate change impacts) showed increases. Despite some local successes and increasing responses (including extent and biodiversity coverage of protected areas, sustainable forest management, policy responses to invasive alien species, and biodiversity-related aid), the rate of biodiversity loss does not appear to be slowing.

Science↗
USGS2011

Analysis of the North American Breeding Bird Survey using hierarchical models

We analyzed population change for 420 bird species from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) using a hierarchical log-linear model and compared the results with those obtained through route-regression analysis. Survey-wide trend estimates based on the hierarchical model were generally more precise than estimates from the earlier analysis. No consistent pattern of differences existed in the magnitude of trends between the analysis methods. Survey-wide trend estimates changed substantially for 15 species between route-regression and hierarchical-model analyses. We compared regional estimates for states, provinces, and Bird Conservation Regions; differences observed in these regional analyses are likely a consequence of the route-regression procedure's inadequate accommodation of temporal differences in survey effort. We used species-specific hierarchical-model results to estimate composite change for groups of birds associated with major habitats and migration types. Grassland, aridland, and eastern-forest-obligate bird species declined, whereas urban—suburban species increased over the interval 1968–2008. No migration status group experienced significant changes, although Nearctic—Neotropical migrant species showed intervals of decline and permanent resident species increased almost 20% during the interval. Hierarchical-model results better portrayed patterns of population change over time than route-regression results. We recommend use of hierarchical models for BBS analyses.

North America↗
USGS2010

Comparative analysis of Mourning Dove population change in North America

Mourning doves (Zenaida macroura) are surveyed in North America with a Call-Count Survey (CCS) and the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). Analyses in recent years have identified inconsistencies in results between surveys, and a need exists to analyze the surveys using modern methods and examine possible causes of differences in survey results. Call-Count Survey observers collect separate information on number of doves heard and number of doves seen during counting, whereas BBS observers record one index containing all doves observed. We used hierarchical log-linear models to estimate trend and annual indices of abundance for 1966–2007 from BBS data, CCS-heard data, and CCS-seen data. Trend estimates from analyses provided inconsistent results for several states and for eastern and central dovemanagement units. We examined differential effects of change in land use and noise-related disturbance on the CCS indices. Changes in noiserelated disturbance along CCS routes had a larger influence on the heard index than on the seen index, but association analyses among states of changes in temperature and of amounts of developed land suggest that CCS indices are differentially influenced by changes in these environmental features. Our hierarchical model should be used to estimate population change from dove surveys, because it provides an efficient framework for estimating population trends from dove indices while controlling for environmental features that differentially influence the indices.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2010

Traffic effects on bird counts on North American Breeding Bird Survey routes

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is an annual roadside survey used to estimate population change in >420 species of birds that breed in North America. Roadside sampling has been criticized, in part because traffic noise can interfere with bird counts. Since 1997, data have been collected on the numbers of vehicles that pass during counts at each stop. We assessed the effect of traffic by modeling total vehicles as a covariate of counts in hierarchical Poisson regression models used to estimate population change. We selected species for analysis that represent birds detected at low and high abundance and birds with songs of low and high frequencies. Increases in vehicle counts were associated with decreases in bird counts in most of the species examined. The size and direction of these effects remained relatively constant between two alternative models that we analyzed. Although this analysis indicated only a small effect of incorporating traffic effects when modeling roadside counts of birds, we suggest that continued evaluation of changes in traffic at BBS stops should be a component of future BBS analyses.

The Auk↗
USGS2010

The 2003-2008 summary of the North American Breeding Bird Survey

Data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey were used to estimate continental and regional changes in bird populations for the 6-yr period 2003-2008 and the 2-yr period 2007-2008. These short-term changes were placed in the context of population trends estimated over the 1966-2008 interval. Across the entire survey area, a higher proportion of species exhibited positive growth during 2003-2008 (64%) than during the long-term (46%) or the more recent 2-yr-term (39%). The 2003-2008 growth occurred relatively evenly across the Western, Central, and Eastern BBS regions, with 59%, 66%, and 61% of all species increasing, respectively. We additionally evaluated the proportion of species with positive trend estimates in each of 12 life-history based groupings at continental and regional levels. Survey-wide, birds in the grassland guild demonstrated the lowest proportion of positive trends over the entire survey period (21% increasing), with significant declines occurring in both the Eastern and Western regions (5% increasing and 18% increasing, respectively). Birds in the wetland breeding guild exhibited the greatest proportion of positive trends, with a significant number of increasing species (between 77-90%) occurring in all three BBS regions during 2003-2008.

Bird Populations↗
USGS2008

An inventory of terrestrial mammals at national parks in the Northeast Temperate Network and Sagamore Hill National Historic Site

An inventory of mammals was conducted during 2004 at nine national park sites in the Northeast Temperate Network (NETN): Acadia National Park (NP), Marsh-Billings-Rockefeller National Historical Park (NHP), Minute Man NHP, Morristown NHP, Roosevelt-Vanderbilt National Historic Site (NHS), Saint-Gaudens NHS, Saugus Iron Works NHS, Saratoga NHP, and Weir Farm NHS. Sagamore Hill NHS, part of the Northeast Coastal and Barrier Network (NCBN), was also surveyed. Each park except Acadia NP was sampled twice, once in the winter/spring and again in the summer/fall. During the winter/spring visit, indirect measure (IM) sampling arrays were employed at 2 to 16 stations and included sampling by remote cameras, cubby boxes (covered trackplates), and hair traps. IM stations were established and re-used during the summer/fall sampling period. Trapping was conducted at 2 to 12 stations at all parks except Acadia NP during the summer/fall period and consisted of arrays of small-mammal traps, squirrel-sized live traps, and some fox-sized live traps. We used estimation-based procedures and probabilistic sampling techniques to design this inventory. A total of 38 species was detected by IM sampling, trapping, and field observations. Species diversity (number of species) varied among parks, ranging from 8 to 24, with Minute Man NHP having the most species detected. Raccoon (Procyon lotor), Virginia Opossum (Didelphis virginiana), Fisher (Martes pennanti), and Domestic Cat (Felis silvestris) were the most common medium-sized mammals detected in this study and White-footed Mouse (Peromyscus leucopus), Northern Short-tailed Shrew (Blarina brevicauda), Deer Mouse (P. maniculatus), and Meadow Vole (Microtus pennsylvanicus) the most common small mammals detected. All species detected are considered fairly common throughout their range including the Fisher, which has been reintroduced in several New England states. We did not detect any state or federal endangered or threatened species.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2006

A review of the population estimation approach of the North American landbird conservation plan

As part of their development of a continental plan for monitoring landbirds (Rich et al. 2004), Partners in Flight (PIF) applied a new method to make preliminary estimates of population size for all 448 species of landbirds present in the continental United States and Canada (Table 1). Estimation of the global population size of North American landbirds was intended to (1) identify the degree of vulnerability of each species, (2) provide estimates of the current population size for each species, and (3) provide a starting point for estimating population sizes in states, provinces, territories, and Bird Conservation Regions (Rich et al. 2004). A method proposed by Rosenberg and Blancher (2005) was used to derive population estimates from available survey data. To enhance the credibility of these estimates, PIF organized a review of the methodology used to estimate North American landbird population sizes. A planning committee selected members from the ornithological and biometrical communities (hereafter “the panel”), with the aim of selecting individuals from academia, state natural-resource agencies, and the U.S. and Canadian federal governments, including the Canadian Wildlife Service, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service. The panel addressed three questions: (1) Were the methods of population estimation proposed by PIF reasonable? (2) What actions could be taken to improve the data or analyses on which the PIF population estimates were based? and (3) How should the PIF population estimates be interpreted?

The Auk↗
USGS2006

Estimating site occupancy and detection probability parameters for meso- and large mammals in a coastal eosystem

Large-scale, multispecies monitoring programs are widely used to assess changes in wildlife populations but they often assume constant detectability when documenting species occurrence. This assumption is rarely met in practice because animal populations vary across time and space. As a result, detectability of a species can be influenced by a number of physical, biological, or anthropogenic factors (e.g., weather, seasonality, topography, biological rhythms, sampling methods). To evaluate some of these influences, we estimated site occupancy rates using species-specific detection probabilities for meso- and large terrestrial mammal species on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA. We used model selection to assess the influence of different sampling methods and major environmental factors on our ability to detect individual species. Remote cameras detected the most species (9), followed by cubby boxes (7) and hair traps (4) over a 13-month period. Estimated site occupancy rates were similar among sampling methods for most species when detection probabilities exceeded 0.15, but we question estimates obtained from methods with detection probabilities between 0.05 and 0.15, and we consider methods with lower probabilities unacceptable for occupancy estimation and inference. Estimated detection probabilities can be used to accommodate variation in sampling methods, which allows for comparison of monitoring programs using different protocols. Vegetation and seasonality produced species-specific differences in detectability and occupancy, but differences were not consistent within or among species, which suggests that our results should be considered in the context of local habitat features and life history traits for the target species. We believe that site occupancy is a useful state variable and suggest that monitoring programs for mammals using occupancy data consider detectability prior to making inferences about species distributions or population change.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2005

Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey as a tool for conservation: A critique of Bart et al. (2004)

Bart et al. (2004) develop methods for predicting needed samples for estimation of long-term trends from Count survey data, and they apply these methods to the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). They recommend adding approximately 40% more survey routes ill the BBS to allow for estimation of long-term (i.e., 20 year) trends for a collection of species. We critique several aspects of their analysis and suggest that their focus on long-term trends and expansion of the present survey design will provide limited benefits for conservation because it fails to either enhance the credibility of the survey or better tie the survey to regional management activities. A primary innovation claimed by Bart et al. (2004) is the incorporation of bias in estimation of study planning. We question the value of this approach, as it requires reliable estimates of range of future bias. We show that estimates of bias used by Bart et al. (2004) are speculative. Failure to obtain better estimates of this bias is likely to compromise the credibility of future analyses of the survey. We also note that the generic analysis of population trends that they provide is of questionable validity and is unlikely to be relevant for regions and species of management concern.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2004

Estimating population trends with a linear model: Technical comments

Controversy has sometimes arisen over whether there is a need to accommodate the limitations of survey design in estimating population change from the count data collected in bird surveys. Analyses of surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) can be quite complex; it is natural to ask if the complexity is necessary, or whether the statisticians have run amok. Bart et al. (2003) propose a very simple analysis involving nothing more complicated than simple linear regression, and contrast their approach with model-based procedures. We review the assumptions implicit to their proposed method, and document that these assumptions are unlikely to be valid for surveys such as the BBS. One fundamental limitation of a purely design-based approach is the absence of controls for factors that influence detection of birds at survey sites. We show that failure to model observer effects in survey data leads to substantial bias in estimation of population trends from BBS data for the 20 species that Bart et al. (2003) used as the basis of their simulations. Finally, we note that the simulations presented in Bart et al. (2003) do not provide a useful evaluation of their proposed method, nor do they provide a valid comparison to the estimating- equations alternative they consider.

Condor↗
USGS2004

A hierarchical spatial model of avian abundance with application to Cerulean Warblers

Surveys collecting count data are the primary means by which abundance is indexed for birds. These counts are confounded, however, by nuisance effects including observer effects and spatial correlation between counts. Current methods poorly accommodate both observer and spatial effects because modeling these spatially autocorrelated counts within a hierarchical framework is not practical using standard statistical approaches. We propose a Bayesian approach to this problem and provide as an example of its implementation a spatial model of predicted abundance for the Cerulean Warbler (Dendroica cerulea) in the Prairie-Hardwood Transition of the upper midwestern United States. We used an overdispersed Poisson regression with fixed and random effects, fitted by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We used 21 years of North American Breeding Bird Survey counts as the response in a loglinear function of explanatory variables describing habitat, spatial relatedness, year effects, and observer effects. The model included a conditional autoregressive term representing potential correlation between adjacent route counts. Categories of explanatory habitat variables in the model included land cover composition and configuration, climate, terrain heterogeneity, and human influence. The inherent hierarchy in the model was from counts occurring, in part, as a function of observers within survey routes within years. We found that the percentage of forested wetlands, an index of wetness potential, and an interaction between mean annual precipitation and deciduous forest patch size best described Cerulean Warbler abundance. Based on a map of relative abundance derived from the posterior parameter estimates, we estimated that only 15% of the species' population occurred on federal land, necessitating active engagement of public landowners and state agencies in the conservation of the breeding habitat for this species. Models of this type can be applied to any data in which the response is counts, such as animal counts, activity (e.g.,nest) counts, or species richness. The most noteworthy practical application of this spatial modeling approach is the ability to map relative species abundance. The functional relationships that we elucidated for the Cerulean Warbler provide a basis for the development of management programs and may serve to focus management and monitoring on areas and habitat variables important to Cerulean Warblers.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2003

Use of North American Breeding Bird Survey data to estimate population change for bird conservation regions

Conservation planning requires information at a variety of geographic scales, and it is often unclear whether surveys designed for other purposes will provide appropriate information for management at various scales. We evaluated the use of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to meet information needs for conservation planning in Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs). The BBS originally was developed to provide regional estimates for states, provinces, physiographic regions, and larger areas. Many analyses have used physiographic regions within states/provinces as strata. We evaluated potential consequences of using BCRs instead of the BBS physiographic regions, testing for spatial differences in sample intensity within states and provinces. We reclassified the BBS survey routes to BCRs and conducted route regression trend (interval-specific population change) analyses for a variety of regions and time intervals. Our results were similar to those based on traditional BBS regions and suggest minimal consequences of the reclassification for the BBS sample. We summarized population change within BCRs and assessed the efficiency of the BBS in estimating population change for 421 species surveyed. As would be expected from an omnibus survey, many species appeared to be poorly monitored by the BBS, with 42% of species encountered at <1 bird per route from the survey, and 28% of trend estimates too imprecise to detect a 3% per year change over 35 years. Our results indicated that the quality of the survey for estimation of population change varied among BCRs. Population trends of species were heterogeneous over space and time, varying among BCRs for 76% of species and over time for 39% of species. Regional heterogeneity also existed in trends of species groups from the BBS. While 49% of all species in the survey had increasing populations, grassland breeding birds showed consistent declines, with only 18% of species having positive trend estimates. Bird Conservation Regions appear to provide reasonable strata for summary of BBS data.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2002

Book review: Bird census techniques, Second edition

Conservation concerns, federal mandates to monitor birds, and citizen science programs have spawned a variety of surveys that collect information on bird populations. Unfortunately, all too frequently these surveys are poorly designed and use inappropriate counting methods. Some of the flawed approaches reflect a lack of understanding of statistical design; many ornithologists simply are not aware that many of our most entrenched counting methods (such as point counts) cannot appropriately be used in studies that compare densities of birds over space and time. It is likely that most of the readers of The Condor have participated in a bird population survey that has been criticized for poor sampling methods. For example, North American readers may be surprised to read in Bird Census Techniques that the North American Breeding Bird Survey 'is seriously flawed in its design,' and that 'Analysis of trends is impossible from points that are positioned along roads' (p. 109). Our conservation efforts are at risk if we do not acknowledge these concerns and improve our survey designs. Other surveys suffer from a lack of focus. In Bird Census Techniques, the authors emphasize that all surveys require clear statements of objectives and an understanding of appropriate survey designs to meet their objectives. Too often, we view survey design as the realm of ornithologists who know the life histories and logistical issues relevant to counting birds. This view reflects pure hubris: survey design is a collaboration between ornithologists, statisticians, and managers, in which goals based on management needs are met by applying statistical principles for design to the biological context of the species of interest. Poor survey design is often due to exclusion of some of these partners from survey development. Because ornithologists are too frequently unaware of these issues, books such as Bird Census Techniques take on added importance as manuals for educating ornithologists about the relevance of survey design and methods and the often subtle interdisciplinary nature of surveys. Review info: Bird Census Techniques, Second Edition. By Colin J. Bibby, Neil D. Burgess, David A. Hill, and Simon H. Mustoe. 2000. Academic Press, London, UK. xvii 1 302 pp. ISBN 0- 12-095831-7.

Condor↗
USGS2002

An evaluation of population index and estimation techniques for tadpoles in desert pools

Using visual (VI) and dip net indices (DI) and double-observer (DOE), removal (RE), and neutral red dye capture-recapture (CRE) estimates, we counted, estimated, and censused Couch's spadefoot ( Scaphiopus couchii ) and canyon treefrog ( Hyla arenicolor ) tadpole populations in Big Bend National Park, Texas. Initial dye experiments helped us determine appropriate dye concentrations and exposure times to use in mesocosm and field trials. The mesocosm study revealed higher tadpole detection rates, more accurate population estimates, and lower coefficients of variation among pools compared to those from the field study. In both mesocosm and field studies, CRE was the best method for estimating tadpole populations, followed by DOE and RE. In the field, RE, DI, and VI often underestimated populations in pools with higher tadpole numbers. DI improved with increased sampling. Larger pools supported larger tadpole populations, and tadpole detection rates in general decreased with increasing pool volume and surface area. Hence, pool size influenced bias in tadpole sampling. Across all techniques, tadpole detection rates differed among pools, indicating that sampling bias was inherent and techniques did not consistently sample the same proportion of tadpoles in each pool. Estimating bias (i.e., calculating detection rates) therefore was essential in assessing tadpole abundance. Unlike VI and DOE, DI, RE, and CRE could be used in turbid waters in which tadpoles are not visible. The tadpole population estimates we used accommodated differences in detection probabilities in simple desert pool environments but may not work in more complex habitats.

Journal of Herpetology↗