Geology topics

John M. Plumb

Publications and source records attributed to John M. Plumb.

35 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2018

Emigration and transportation stress of juvenile Chinook salmon relative to their reintroduction upriver of Shasta Dam, California, 2017–18

The Bureau of Reclamation supports the Shasta Dam Fish Passage Evaluation (SDFPE; Yip, 2015) program, and in 2016 set out to determine the feasibility of reintroducing winter-run and spring-run Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and steelhead ( O. mykiss ) to tributaries upstream of Shasta Dam. Ideally, reintroduction strategy includes trapping naturally produced downstream-migrating juvenile fish at the head of Lake Shasta (upstream of Shasta Dam), or near the mouth of the tributaries where they flow into the lake. However, evaluations of a juvenile collection system in one of the target tributaries (McCloud River) was delayed because of concerns about the fish source to be used as surrogate for winter-run Chinook salmon and the location and impact of the trap-and-haul operations. In 2017, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was contracted to evaluate the reintroduction of winter-run salmon into tributaries upstream of Shasta Dam, and the McCloud River, having the most suitable spawning and rearing habitat for salmon adjacent to Shasta Reservoir (Lake) was the chosen study area. The first stage of the project was to assess the feasibility using a head-of-reservoir fish trap to collect juvenile salmon, but these efforts were delayed, so efforts were used to assess how juvenile Chinook salmon would distribute within the McCloud River and Shasta Reservoir and help determine the feasibility of collecting fish at Shasta Dam. Importantly, NOAA fisheries was also conducting an acoustic telemetry project through the Sacramento River, and they provided the additional acoustic detection data on our tagged fish to San Francisco Bay. These data were collected beyond original study goals, but added a large contribution to the findings and inferences from this study.

California↗

USGS2018

A bioenergetics evaluation of temperature‐dependent selection for the spawning phenology by Snake River fall Chinook salmon

High water temperatures can increase the energetic cost for salmon to migrate and spawn, which can be important for Snake River fall‐run Chinook salmon because they migrate great distances (>500 km) at a time when river temperatures (18–24°C) can be above their optimum temperatures (16.5°C). Average river temperatures and random combinations of migration and spawning dates were used to simulate fish travel times and determine the energetic consequences of different thermal experiences during migration. An energy threshold criterion (4 kJ/g) was also imposed on survival and spawning success, which was used to determine how prevailing temperatures might select against certain migration dates and thermal experiences, and in turn, explain the selection for the current spawning phenology of the population. Scenarios of tributary use for thermal refugia under increasing water temperatures (1, 2, and 3°C) were also run to determine which combinations of migration dates, travel rates, and resulting thermal experiences might be most affected by energy exhaustion. As expected, when compared to observations, the model under existing conditions and energy use could explain the onset, but not the end of the observed spawning migration. Simulations of early migrants had greater energy loss than late migrants regardless of the river temperature scenario, but higher temperatures disproportionately selected against a larger fraction of early‐migrating fish, although using cold‐water tributaries during migration provided a buffer against higher energy use at higher temperatures. The fraction of simulated fish that exceeded the threshold for migration success increased from 58% to 72% as average seasonal river temperatures over baseline temperatures increased. The model supports the conclusion that increases in average seasonal river temperatures as little as 1°C could impose greater thermal constraints on the fish, select against early migrants, and in turn, truncate the onset of the current spawning migration.

Columbia River, Snake River↗

USGS2018

Model structure of the stream salmonid simulator (S3)—A dynamic model for simulating growth, movement, and survival of juvenile salmonids

Fisheries and water managers often use population models to aid in understanding the effect of alternative water management or restoration actions on anadromous fish populations. We developed the Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) to help resource managers evaluate the effect of management alternatives on juvenile salmonid populations. S3 is a deterministic stage-structured population model that tracks daily growth, movement, and survival of juvenile salmon. A key theme of the model is that river flow affects habitat availability and capacity, which in turn drives density dependent population dynamics. To explicitly link population dynamics to habitat quality and quantity, the river environment is constructed as a one-dimensional series of linked habitat units, each of which has an associated daily time series of discharge, water temperature, and usable habitat area or carrying capacity. The physical characteristics of each habitat unit and the number of fish occupying each unit, in turn, drive survival and growth within each habitat unit and movement of fish among habitat units. The purpose of this report is to outline the underlying general structure of the S3 model that is common among different applications of the model. We have developed applications of the S3 model for juvenile fall Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in the lower Klamath River. Thus, this report is a companion to current application of the S3 model to the Trinity River (in review). The general S3 model structure provides a biological and physical framework for the salmonid freshwater life cycle. This framework captures important demographics of juvenile salmonids aimed at translating management alternatives into simulated population responses. Although the S3 model is built on this common framework, the model has been constructed to allow much flexibility in application of the model to specific river systems. The ability for practitioners to include system-specific information for the physical stream structure, survival, growth, and movement processes ensures that simulations provide results that are relevant to the questions asked about the population under study.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2018

A laboratory-calibrated model of coho salmon growth with utility for ecological analyses

We conducted a meta-analysis of laboratory- and hatchery-based growth data to estimate broadly applicable parameters of mass- and temperature-dependent growth of juvenile coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ). Following studies of other salmonid species, we incorporated the Ratkowsky growth model into an allometric model and fit this model to growth observations from eight studies spanning ten different populations. To account for changes in growth patterns with food availability, we reparameterized the Ratkowsky model to scale several of its parameters relative to ration. The resulting model was robust across a wide range of ration allocations and experimental conditions, accounting for 99% of the variation in final body mass. We fit this model to growth data from coho salmon inhabiting tributaries and constructed ponds in the Klamath Basin by estimating habitat-specific indices of food availability. The model produced evidence that constructed ponds provided higher food availability than natural tributaries. Because of their simplicity (only mass and temperature are required as inputs) and robustness, ration-varying Ratkowsky models have utility as an ecological tool for capturing growth in freshwater fish populations.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2018

Research, monitoring, and evaluation of emerging issues and measures to recover the Snake River fall Chinook salmon ESU

The portion of the Snake River fall Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ESU that spawns upstream of Lower Granite Dam transitioned from low to high abundance during 1992–2017 in association with U.S. Endangered Species Act recovery efforts and other federally mandated actions. This annual report focuses on (1) numeric and habitat use responses by natural- and hatchery-origin spawners, (2) phenotypic and numeric responses by natural-origin juveniles, (3) USGS use of a small unmanned aerial system (sUAS) to search for fall Chinook salmon redds and carcasses, and (4) the detection of 8-mm PIT tags at Lower Granite Dam. Spawners have located and used most of the available spawning habitat and that habitat is gradually approaching redd capacity. Timing of spawning and fry emergence has been relatively stable; whereas the timing of parr dispersal from riverine rearing habitat into Lower Granite Reservoir has become earlier as apparent abundance of juveniles has increased. Growth rate (g/d) and dispersal size of parr also declined as apparent abundance of juveniles increased. Passage timing of smolts from the two Snake River reaches has become earlier and downstream movement rate faster as estimated abundance of fall Chinook Salmon smolts in Lower Granite Reservoir has increased. These findings coupled with stock-recruitment analyses presented in this report provide evidence for density-dependence in the Snake River reaches and in Lower Granite Reservoir that was influenced by the expansion of the recovery program. The long-term goal is to use the information covered here in a comprehensive modeling effort to conduct action effectiveness and uncertainty research and to inform Fish Population, Hydrosystem, Harvest, Hatchery, and Predation and Invasive Species Management RM&E. In 2017, the USGS searched 15 shallow water spawning sites in conjunction with the Idaho Power Company (IPC). Redd counts agreed with those of IPC for a little more than half the sites suggesting that we need more training in redd counting. We recovered 67 carcasses, and tissue samples are currently being analyzed for parentage to ultimately determine the percentage of hatchery-origin spawners on the spawning grounds. Redd fading was examined to determine the frequency at which aerial surveys should be conducted. Most redds surveyed through time were visible for at least 4 weeks after the redd was initially constructed. Redd fading was variable amongst sites and depended on location. In 2017, we conducted a second year of evaluating detection efficiency of 8-mm PIT tags in the Lower Granite Dam juvenile fish collection system. Groups of 75–78 fish were tagged with 8-mm Biomark, 8-mm Oregon RFID, 9-mm Biomark, and 12-mm Biomark PIT tags and released into the bypass upstream of the upwell. From 97.4 to 100% (depending on tag type) of tagged fish were detected on at least one antenna in the Lower Granite Dam bypass system. Mean detection efficiency within the predominant passage route (i.e., diversion river exit) exceeded 0.98 for all tag types in both years. These results suggest that fish tagged in the field with 8-mm PIT tags should be detected at rates similar to larger tags at main-stem hydroelectric dams.

Snake River Basin↗

USGS2017

Research, monitoring, and evaluation of emerging issues and measures to recover the Snake River Fall Chinook Salmon ESU, 1/1/2016 - 12/31/2016

The portion of the Snake River fall Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ESU that spawns upstream of Lower Granite Dam transitioned from low to high abundance during 1992–2016 in association with U.S. Endangered Species Act recovery efforts and other federally mandated actions. This annual report focuses on (1) numeric and habitat use responses by natural- and hatchery-origin spawners, (2) phenotypic and numeric responses by natural-origin juveniles, and (3) predator responses in the Snake River upper and lower reaches as abundance of adult and juvenile fall Chinook Salmon increased. Spawners have located and used most of the available spawning habitat and that habitat is gradually approaching redd capacity. Timing of spawning and fry emergence has been relatively stable; whereas the timing of parr dispersal from riverine rearing habitat into Lower Granite Reservoir has become earlier as apparent abundance of juveniles has increased. Growth rate (g/d) and dispersal size of parr also declined as apparent abundance of juveniles increased. Passage timing of smolts from the two Snake River reaches has become earlier and downstream movement rate faster as estimated abundance of fall Chinook Salmon smolts in Lower Granite Reservoir has increased. In 2016, we described estimated the consumption rate and loss of subyearlings by Smallmouth Bass before, during, and after four hatchery releases. Before releases, Smallmouth Bass consumption rates of subyearling was low (0–0.36 fish/bass/d), but the day after the releases consumption rates reached as high as 1.6 fish/bass/d. Bass consumption in the upper portion of Hells Canyon was high for about 1–2 d before returning to pre-release levels, but in the lower river consumption rates were reduced but took longer to return to pre-release levels. We estimated that most of the subyearlings consumed by bass were of hatchery origin. Smallmouth Bass predation on subyearlings is intense following a hatchery release, but the predation pressure is relatively short-lived as subyearlings quickly disperse downstream. This information will allow us to better estimate subyearling loss to predation from our past efforts at time intervals less than 2 weeks. These findings coupled with stock-recruitment analyses presented in this report provide evidence for density-dependence in the Snake River reaches and in Lower Granite Reservoir that was influenced by the expansion of the recovery program. The long-term goal is to use the information covered here in a comprehensive modeling effort to conduct action effectiveness and uncertainty research and to inform Fish Population, Hydrosystem, Harvest, Hatchery, and Predation and Invasive Species Management RM&E.

Snake River basin↗

USGS2016

Development of a study design and implementation plan to estimate juvenile salmon survival in Lookout Point Reservoir and other reservoirs of the Willamette Project, western Oregon

Survival estimates for juvenile salmon and steelhead fry in reservoirs impounded by high head dams are coveted data by resource managers. However, this information is difficult to obtain because these fish are too small for tagging using conventional methods such as passive-integrated transponders or radio or acoustic transmitters. We developed a study design and implementation plan to conduct a pilot evaluation that would assess the performance of two models for estimating fry survival in a field setting. The first model is a staggered-release recovery model that was described by Skalski and others (2009) and Skalski (2016). The second model is a parentage-based tagging N -mixture model that was developed and described in this document. Both models are conceptually and statistically sound, but neither has been evaluated in the field. In this document we provide an overview of a proposed study for 2017 in Lookout Point Reservoir, Oregon, that will evaluate survival of Chinook salmon fry using both models. This approach will allow us to test each model and compare survival estimates, to determine model performance and better understand these study designs using field-collected data.

Oregon↗

USGS2015

An evaluation of fish behavior upstream of the water temperature control tower at Cougar Dam, Oregon, using acoustic cameras, 2013

This report describes the initial year of a 2-year study to determine the feasibility of using acoustic cameras to monitor fish movements to help inform decisions about fish passage at Cougar Dam near Springfield, Oregon. Specifically, we used acoustic cameras to measure fish presence, travel speed, and direction adjacent to the water temperature control tower in the forebay of Cougar Dam during the spring (May, June, and July) and fall (September, October, and November) of 2013. Cougar Dam is a high-head flood-control dam, and the water temperature control tower enables depth-specific water withdrawals to facilitate adjustment of water temperatures released downstream of the dam. The acoustic cameras were positioned at the upstream entrance of the tower to monitor free-ranging subyearling and yearling-size juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ). Because of the large size discrepancy, we could distinguish juvenile Chinook salmon from their predators, which enabled us to measure predators and prey in areas adjacent to the entrance of the tower. We used linear models to quantify and assess operational and environmental factors—such as time of day, discharge, and water temperature—that may influence juvenile Chinook salmon movements within the beam of the acoustic cameras. Although extensive milling behavior of fish near the structure may have masked directed movement of fish and added unpredictability to fish movement models, the acoustic-camera technology enabled us to ascertain the general behavior of discrete size classes of fish. Fish travel speed, direction of travel, and counts of fish moving toward the water temperature control tower primarily were influenced by the amount of water being discharged through the dam.

Oregon↗

USGS2015

Diel activity patterns of juvenile late fall-run Chinook salmon with implications for operation of a gated water diversion in the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta

In the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, California, tidal forces that reverse river flows increase the proportion of water and juvenile late fall-run Chinook salmon diverted into a network of channels that were constructed to support agriculture and human consumption. This area is known as the interior delta, and it has been associated with poor fish survival. Under the rationale that the fish will be diverted in proportion to the amount of water that is diverted, the Delta Cross Channel (DCC) has been prescriptively closed during the winter out-migration to reduce fish entrainment and mortality into the interior delta. The fish are thought to migrate mostly at night, and so daytime operation of the DCC may allow for water diversion that minimizes fish entrainment and mortality. To assess this, the DCC gate was experimentally opened and closed while we released 2983 of the fish with acoustic transmitters upstream of the DCC to monitor their arrival and entrainment into the DCC. We used logistic regression to model night-time arrival and entrainment probabilities with covariates that included the proportion of each diel period with upstream flow, flow, rate of change in flow and water temperature. The proportion of time with upstream flow was the most important driver of night-time arrival probability, yet river flow had the largest effect on fish entrainment into the DCC. Modelling results suggest opening the DCC during daytime while keeping the DCC closed during night-time may allow for water diversion that minimizes fish entrainment into the interior delta.

California↗

USGS2015

Re-estimating temperature-dependent consumption parameters in bioenergetics models for juvenile Chinook salmon

Researchers have cautioned against the borrowing of consumption and growth parameters from other species and life stages in bioenergetics growth models. In particular, the function that dictates temperature dependence in maximum consumption ( C max ) within the Wisconsin bioenergetics model for Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha produces estimates that are lower than those measured in published laboratory feeding trials. We used published and unpublished data from laboratory feeding trials with subyearling Chinook Salmon from three stocks (Snake, Nechako, and Big Qualicum rivers) to estimate and adjust the model parameters for temperature dependence in C max . The data included growth measures in fish ranging from 1.5 to 7.2 g that were held at temperatures from 14°C to 26°C. Parameters for temperature dependence in C max were estimated based on relative differences in food consumption, and bootstrapping techniques were then used to estimate the error about the parameters. We found that at temperatures between 17°C and 25°C, the current parameter values did not match the observed data, indicating that C max should be shifted by about 4°C relative to the current implementation under the bioenergetics model. We conclude that the adjusted parameters for C max should produce more accurate predictions from the bioenergetics model for subyearling Chinook Salmon.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2015

Using a laboratory-based growth model to estimate mass- and temperature-dependent growth parameters across populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon

To estimate the parameters that govern mass- and temperature-dependent growth, we conducted a meta-analysis of existing growth data from juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that were fed an ad libitum ration of a pelleted diet. Although the growth of juvenile Chinook Salmon has been well studied, research has focused on a single population, a narrow range of fish sizes, or a narrow range of temperatures. Therefore, we incorporated the Ratkowsky model for temperature-dependent growth into an allometric growth model; this model was then fitted to growth data from 11 data sources representing nine populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon. The model fit the growth data well, explaining 98% of the variation in final mass. The estimated allometric mass exponent (b) was 0.338 (SE = 0.025), similar to estimates reported for other salmonids. This estimate of b will be particularly useful for estimating mass-standardized growth rates of juvenile Chinook Salmon. In addition, the lower thermal limit, optimal temperature, and upper thermal limit for growth were estimated to be 1.8°C (SE = 0.63°C), 19.0°C (SE = 0.27°C), and 24.9°C (SE = 0.02°C), respectively. By taking a meta-analytical approach, we were able to provide a growth model that is applicable across populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon receiving an ad libitum ration of a pelleted diet.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2014

Performance of a surface bypass structure to enhance juvenile steelhead passage and survival at Lower Granite Dam, Washington

An integral part of efforts to recover stocks of Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. and steelhead O. mykiss in Pacific Northwest rivers is to increase passage efficacy and survival of juveniles past hydroelectric dams. As part of this effort, we evaluated the efficacy of a prototype surface bypass structure, the removable spillway weir (RSW), installed in a spillbay at Lower Granite Dam, Washington, on the Snake River during 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2006. Radio-tagged juvenile steelhead were released upstream from the dam and their route of passage through the turbines, juvenile bypass, spillway, or RSW was recorded. The RSW was operated in an on-or-off condition and passed 3–13% of the total discharge at the dam when it was on. Poisson rate models were fit to the passage counts of hatchery- and natural-origin juvenile steelhead to predict the probability of fish passing the dam. Main-effect predictor variables were RSW operation, diel period, day of the year, proportion of flow passed by the spillway, and total discharge at the dam. The combined fish passage through the RSW and spillway was 55–85% during the day and 37–61% during the night. The proportion of steelhead passing through nonturbine routes was <88% when the RSW was off during the day and increased to >95% when the RSW was on during the day. The ratio of the proportion of steelhead passed to the proportion of water passing the RSW was from 6.3:1 to 10.0:1 during the day and from 2.7:1 to 5.2:1 during the night. Steelhead passing through the RSW exited the tailrace about 15 min faster than fish passing through the spillway. Mark–recapture single-release survival estimates for steelhead passing the RSW ranged from 0.95 to 1.00. The RSW appeared to be an effective bypass structure compared with other routes of fish passage at the dam.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2013

Evidence for density-dependent changes in growth, downstream movement, and size of Chinook salmon subyearlings in a large-river landscape

We studied the growth rate, downstream movement, and size of naturally produced fall Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha subyearlings (age 0) for 20 years in an 8th-order river landscape with regulated riverine upstream rearing areas and an impounded downstream migration corridor. The population transitioned from low to high abundance in association with U.S. Endangered Species Act and other federally mandated recovery efforts. The mean growth rate of parr in the river did not decline with increasing abundance, but during the period of higher abundance the timing of dispersal from riverine habitat into the reservoir averaged 17 d earlier and the average size at the time of downstream dispersal was smaller by 10 mm and 1.8 g. Changes in apparent abundance, measured by catch per unit effort, largely explained the time of dispersal, measured by median day of capture, in riverine habitat. The growth rate of smolts in the reservoir declined from an average of 0.6 to 0.2 g/d between the abundance periods because the reduction in size at reservoir entry was accompanied by a tendency to migrate rather than linger and by increasing concentrations of smolts in the reservoir. The median date of passage through the reservoir was 14 d earlier on average, and average smolt size was smaller by 38 mm and 22.0 g, in accordance with density-dependent behavioral changes reflected by decreased smolt growth. Unexpectedly, smolts during the high-abundance period had begun to reexpress the migration timing and size phenotypes observed before the river was impounded, when abundance was relatively high. Our findings provide evidence for density-dependent phenotypic change in a large river that was influenced by the expansion of a recovery program. Thus, this study shows that efforts to recover native fishes can have detectable effects in large-river landscapes. The outcome of such phenotypic change, which will be an important area of future research, can only be fully judged by examining the effect of the change on population viability and productivity.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2013

Comparing effects of transmitters within and among populations: application to swimming performance of juvenile Chinook salmon

The sensitivity of fish to a transmitter depends on factors such as environmental conditions, fish morphology, life stage, rearing history, and tag design. However, synthesizing general trends across studies is difficult because each study focuses on a particular performance measure, species, life stage, and transmitter model. These differences motivated us to develop simple metrics that allow effects of transmitters to be compared among different species, populations, or studies. First, we describe how multiple regression analysis can be used to quantify the effect of tag burden (transmitter mass relative to fish mass) on measures of physiological performance. Next, we illustrate how the slope and intercept parameters can be used to calculate two summary statistics: θ, which estimates the tag burden threshold above which the performance of tagged fish begins to decline relative to untagged fish; and k, which measures the percentage change in performance per percentage point increase in tag burden. When θ = 0, k provides a single measure of the tag's effect that can be compared among species, populations, or studies. We apply this analysis to two different experiments that measure the critical swimming speed (U crit) of tagged juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha. In both experiments, U crit declined as tag burden increased, but we found no significant threshold in swimming performance. Estimates of θ ranged from −0.6% to 2.1% among six unique treatment groups, indicating that swimming performance began to decline at a relatively low tag burden. Estimates of k revealed that U crit of tagged fish declined by −2.68% to −4.86% for each 1% increase in tag burden. Both θ and k varied with the tag's antenna configuration, tag implantation method, and posttagging recovery time. Our analytical approach can be used to gain insights across populations to better understand factors affecting the ability of fish to carry a transmitter.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2013

Review of a model to assess stranding of juvenile salmon by ship wakes along the Lower Columbia River, Oregon and Washington

Long period wake waves from deep draft vessels have been shown to strand small fish, particularly juvenile Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tschawytcha, in the lower Columbia River (LCR). The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is responsible for maintaining the shipping channel in the LCR and recently conducted dredging operations to deepen the shipping channel from an authorized depth of 40 feet(ft) to an authorized depth of 43 ft (in areas where rapid shoaling was expected, dredging operations were used to increase the channel depth to 48 ft). A model was developed to estimate stranding probabilities for juvenile salmon under the 40- and 43-ft channel scenarios, to determine if channel deepening was going to affect wake stranding (Assessment of potential stranding of juvenile salmon by ship wakes along the Lower Columbia River under scenarios of ship traffic and channel depth: Report prepared for the Portland District U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Portland, Oregon). The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers funded the U.S. Geological Survey to review this model. A total of 30 review questions were provided to guide the review process, and these questions are addressed in this report. In general, we determined that the analyses by Pearson (2011) were appropriate given the data available. We did identify two areas where additional information could have been provided: (1) a more thorough description of model diagnostics and model selection would have been useful for the reader to better understand the model framework; and (2) model uncertainty should have been explicitly described and reported in the document. Stranding probability estimates between the 40- and 43-ft channel depths were minimally different under most of the scenarios that were examined by Pearson (2011), and a discussion of the effects of uncertainty given these minimal differences would have been useful. Ultimately, however, a stochastic (or simulation) model would provide the best opportunity to illustrate uncertainty within a given set of model predictions, but such an approach would require a substantial amount of additional data collection. Several review questions focused on the accuracy and precision of the model estimates, but we were unable to address these questions because of the limited data that currently exists regarding wake stranding in the LCR. Additional field studies will be required to validate findings from Pearson (2011), if concerns regarding accuracy and precision remain a priority. Although the Pearson (2011) model provided a useful examination of stranding under pre-construction and post-construction conditions, future research will be required to better understand the effects of wake stranding on juvenile salmonids throughout the entire LCR. If additional information on wake stranding is desired in the future, the following topics may be of interest: (1) spatial examination of wake stranding throughout the entire LCR; (2) additional evaluation of juvenile salmonid behavior and population dynamics; (3) assessing and integrating predicted changes in ship development; and (4) assessing and integrating predicted changes in climate on environmental factors known to cause stranding.

Oregon;Washington↗

USGS2012

Estimating and predicting collection probability of fish at dams using multistate modeling

Dams can be equipped with a bypass that routes a portion of the fish that enter the turbine intakes away from the powerhouse into flumes, where they can be counted. Daily passage abundance can be estimated by dividing the number of fish counted in the bypass by the sampling rate and then dividing the resulting quotient by the collection probability (i.e., the proportion of the fish population passing the dam that is bypassed). We used multistate mark–recapture modeling to evaluate six candidate models for predicting the collection probabilities of radio-tagged subyearling fall Chinook salmon (n = 3,852) as a function of 1–2-d time periods (general model), four different combinations of outflow (i.e., the total volume of water passing the dam) and turbine allocation (i.e., the proportion of outflow directed through the turbines), and a null (intercept only) model. The best-fit model was the additive combination of turbine allocation and outflow, which explained 71% of the null deviance. Cross validation of the best-fit model accounted for the variation that may arise from different data sets and the ensuing parameter values on the collection probability estimates and yielded a standard error of 0.613 that can be used to construct approximate 95% prediction intervals in nonstudy years. Such estimates have been unavailable and will be useful anywhere estimates of daily passage abundance at dams with bypasses are needed to manage migratory fishes.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2005

Survival and migration behavior of juvenile salmonids at McNary Dam, 2004, Final report of research

During 2004, the USGS Columbia River Research Laboratory conducted a study at McNary Dam using radio telemetry to estimate passage and survival parameters of juvenile salmonids. Our primary objective was to estimate these parameters under ambient environmental and operational conditions, and thus project-wide treatments were not implemented. The primary dam operation consisted of “biop” spill, where spill occurred at night between 1800 and 0600 hours, and no spill occurred between 0600 and 1800 hours for the majority of our study period. During the spring study period, we radio-tagged and released 1,896 yearling Chinook salmon and 1,888 juvenile steelhead. During the summer study period, we radio-tagged and released 1,919 subyearling Chinook salmon. All fish were tagged using gastric techniques to implant transmitters weighing 1.58 g for yearling Chinook salmon, 1.93 g for juvenile steelhead, and 0.96 g for subyearling Chinook salmon. Minimum fish sizes were based on a 6.5% tag:fish weight ratio, and the size of tagged fish represented about 91%, 100%, and 17% of the population, respectively for yearling Chinook salmon, juvenile steelhead, and subyearling Chinook salmon. About 60% of radio-tagged fish were released 10 km upstream of McNary Dam at Hat Rock State Park, Oregon, with the remainder released as control groups 400 m downstream of the dam.

Oregon, Washington↗