USGS ScienceSearch

Geology topics

John C. Risley

Publications and source records attributed to John C. Risley.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Precipitation-runoff processes in the Merced River Basin, Central California, with prospects for streamflow predictability, water years 1952–2013

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), has constructed a new spatially detailed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model for the Merced River Basin, California, which is a tributary of the San Joaquin River in California. Operated through an Object User Interface (OUI) with Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and daily climate distribution preprocessing functionality, the model is calibrated primarily to simulate (and eventually, forecast) year-to-year variations of inflows to Lake McClure during the critical April–July snowmelt season. The model is intended to become part of a suite of methods used by DWR for estimating daily streamflow from the Merced River Basin, especially during the snowmelt season. This study describes the results of the application of an analysis tool that simulates responses to climate and land-use variations at a higher spatial resolution than previously available to DWR. A geographic information system was used to delineate the model domain, that is, areas draining to a single outlet at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station 11270900, Merced River below Merced Falls Dam, near Snell, CA (also known as California Data Exchange Center station MRC), and subdrainage areas, including four draining to internal gages used as calibration targets. Using this delineation, three contiguous subbasins were recognized and, along with the model domain and nested calibration targets, are the simulation units evaluated in this report. An auto-calibration tool, LUCA (Let Us CAlibrate), was used for each calibration node, from headwaters to basin outlet, and then parameters were manually adjusted to complete the calibration. The main objective was to match April–July snowmelt seasonal discharge values of simulated streamflow to observed (measured or reconstructed) discharge values. Calibration or validation periods used site-specific streamflows—mostly from October 1, 1988, through September 30, 2013—but differed according to the period-of-record available for the measurements collected at internal gages or reconstructed flows for the single outlet. The accuracy of the Merced PRMS streamflow simulations varied seasonally, as compared to observed values. Based on statistical results, the Merced PRMS model satisfactorily simulated snowmelt seasonal streamflows. April–July calibrations for all areas had small negative bias (not greater than 7 percent) and low relative error (less than 8 percent). Less satisfactory performance for other seasons was attributed to several factors: (1) high uncertainty in low or zero flows in summer and fall, (2) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and anthropogenic water use, (3) unavailability and (or) inaccuracy of observed (measured) meteorological input data, and (4) uncertainty in reconstructed streamflow data. With some additional refinement, the Merced PRMS model may be used for forecasting seasonal and longer-term streamflow variations; evaluating forecasted and past climate and land cover changes; providing water-resource managers with a consistent and documented method for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites within the basin; and aiding environmental studies, hydraulic design, water management, and water-quality projects in the Merced River Basin.

California

Using the precipitation-runoff modeling system to predict seasonal water availability in the upper Klamath River basin, Oregon and California

Accurate forecasts of the streamflow expected during late spring and summer in the Upper Klamath River Basin in southern-central Oregon and northern California are used by water management agencies to balance water allocations for agriculture, aquatic habitat, and hydropower-production needs. Streamflow forecasts are also used by irrigation farmers for planning. The forecasts are typically made twice a month starting as early in the water year as December. Multiple regression equations relating real-time snowpack and precipitation conditions to seasonal streamflow volumes have been used for many years in forecasting. However, with warming temperature trends and lower snowpack, such forecasts based on historical data could become less reliable in the future. If the timing and relation of snowpack and precipitation are outside of the range of the historical data used to create the equations, the forecasts become extrapolations. Statistical forecast equations are also limited in their ability to forecast streamflow in groundwater-dominated basins having inter-annual lag. As an additional method for seasonal streamflow forecasting, a physical-process-based hydrologic model employing the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was developed in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for the Upper Klamath Basin in this study. The model was calibrated for the portion of the basin draining into Upper Klamath Lake. PRMS is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. It simulates daily streamflow, snow, solar radiation, evapotranspiration, surface-water, and groundwater processes within the basin. A model calibration and validation period for water years 2000–15 and water years 1984–99, respectively, was used. The model was calibrated and validated using measured streamflow, snowpack, evapotranspiration, and solar radiation data sets. Interpolated daily precipitation and air temperature data from 32 meteorological stations within and surrounding the Upper Klamath Basin were used as model input. Performance statistics, used to evaluate how well simulated daily streamflow matched with measured streamflow included percent bias, percent relative error, and root-mean-square error. The statistics were computed annually, monthly, for October–March, and for April–September. With the exception of the October–March period, percent bias statistics were all within plus or minus 5-percent for both the calibration and validation periods. Limitations to using the model are error in the precipitation and air temperature input time series data, which include measurement error and error in the spatial interpolation method. Other errors include measured daily streamflow data, which were adjusted for consumptive use losses to make them more closely resemble natural streamflow for calibration. The model developed for the Upper Klamath Basin can be used to forecast streamflow from the Sprague and Williamson River Basins and inflow to Upper Klamath Lake. Reliable forecasts at these locations are needed for managing water for irrigation, ecosystem health, and power production. Using the models in a forecast application requires assembling model input data sets of anticipated daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperature for the period after the date the forecast is made and the end of the forecasted period. These climate data sets can be based on historical or synthetic records, at the discretion of the forecaster. With the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction method, a suite of streamflow scenarios is simulated using multiple years of climate data as model input. The forecasted streamflow is determined from knowing the exceedance probabilities of the simulated streamflows. In this study, the model and the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction method were used to forecast the volume of inflow to Upper Klamath Lake for a 6-month period from April 1, 2015, to September 30, 2015, using a range of climate data sets based on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) criteria. Because 2015 was a warm phase ENSO period, climate data for 10 warm phase ENSO years from 1980 to 2010 were used as input to the model. The simulated April–September 2015 UKL inflow volume based on measured 2015 climate data was 482,000 acre-feet, which was very close to the 50th percent exceedance probability computed from 10 simulated scenarios that used warm phase ENSO climate input data from 1980–2010.

California, Oregon

Simulation of daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, constructed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models to estimate daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa that drain into the Missouri River. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of streamflow and general drainage basin hydrology to various combinations of climate and land use. Calibration periods for each basin varied depending on the period of record available for daily mean streamflow measurements at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations. A geographic information system tool was used to delineate each basin and estimate initial values for model parameters based on basin physical and geographical features. A U.S. Geological Survey automatic calibration tool that uses a shuffled complex evolution algorithm was used for initial calibration, and then manual modifications were made to parameter values to complete the calibration of each basin model. The main objective of the calibration was to match daily discharge values of simulated streamflow to measured daily discharge values. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was calibrated at 42 sites located in the 12 river basins in western Iowa. The accuracy of the simulated daily streamflow values at the 42 calibration sites varied by river and by site. The models were satisfactory at 36 of the sites based on statistical results. Unsatisfactory performance at the six other sites can be attributed to several factors: (1) low flow, no flow, and flashy flow conditions in headwater subbasins having a small drainage area; (2) poor representation of the groundwater and storage components of flow within a basin; (3) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and water use; and (4) limited availability and accuracy of meteorological input data. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models of 12 river basins in western Iowa will provide water-resource managers with a consistent and documented method for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites and aid in environmental studies, hydraulic design, water management, and water-quality projects.

Iowa

Simulation of groundwater and surface-water flow in the upper Deschutes Basin, Oregon

This report describes a hydrologic model for the upper Deschutes Basin in central Oregon developed using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) integrated Groundwater and Surface-Water Flow model (GSFLOW). The upper Deschutes Basin, which drains much of the eastern side of the Cascade Range in Oregon, is underlain by large areas of permeable volcanic rock. That permeability, in combination with the large annual precipitation at high elevations, results in a substantial regional aquifer system and a stream system that is heavily groundwater dominated. The upper Deschutes Basin is also an area of expanding population and increasing water demand for public supply and agriculture. Surface water was largely developed for agricultural use by the mid-20th century, and is closed to additional appropriations. Consequently, water users look to groundwater to satisfy the growing demand. The well‑documented connection between groundwater and the stream system, and the institutional and legal restrictions on streamflow depletion by wells, resulted in the Oregon Water Resources Department (OWRD) instituting a process whereby additional groundwater pumping can be permitted only if the effects to streams are mitigated, for example, by reducing permitted surface-water diversions. Implementing such a program requires understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of effects to streams from groundwater pumping. A groundwater model developed in the early 2000s by the USGS and OWRD has been used to provide insights into the distribution of streamflow depletion by wells, but lacks spatial resolution in sensitive headwaters and spring areas. The integrated model developed for this project, based largely on the earlier model, has a much finer grid spacing allowing resolution of sensitive headwater streams and important spring areas, and simulates a more complete set of surface processes as well as runoff and groundwater flow. In addition, the integrated model includes improved representation of subsurface geology and explicitly simulates the effects of hydrologically important fault zones not included in the previous model. The upper Deschutes Basin GSFLOW model was calibrated using an iterative trial and error approach using measured water-level elevations (water levels) from 800 wells, 144 of which have time series of 10 or more measurements. Streamflow was calibrated using data from 21 gage locations. At 14 locations where measured flows are heavily influenced by reservoir operations and irrigation diversions, so called “ naturalized ” flows, with the effects of reservoirs and diversion removed, developed by the Bureau of Reclamation, were used for calibration. Surface energy and moisture processes such as solar radiation, snow accumulation and melting, and evapotranspiration were calibrated using national datasets as well as data from long-term measurement sites in the basin. The calibrated Deschutes GSFLOW model requires daily precipitation, minimum and maximum air temperature data, and monthly data describing groundwater pumping and artificial recharge from leaking irrigation canals (which are a significant source of groundwater recharge). The calibrated model simulates the geographic distribution of hydraulic head over the 5,000 ft range measured in the basin, with a median absolute residual of about 53 ft. Temporal variations in head resulting from climate cycles, pumping, and canal leakage are well simulated over the model area. Simulated daily streamflow matches gaged flows or calculated naturalized flows for streams including the Crooked and Metolius Rivers, and lower parts of the mainstem Deschutes River. Seasonal patterns of runoff are less well fit in some upper basin streams. Annual water balances of streamflow are good over most of the model domain. Model fit and overall capabilities are appropriate for the objectives of the project. The integrated model results confirm findings from other studies and models indicating that most streamflow in the upper Deschutes Basin comes directly from groundwater discharge. The integrated model provides additional insights about the components of streamflow including direct groundwater discharge to streams, interflow, groundwater discharge to the land surface (Dunnian flow), and direct runoff (Hortonian flow). The new model provides improved capability for exploring the timing and distribution of streamflow capture by wells, and the hydrologic response to changes in other external stresses such as canal operation, irrigation, and drought. Because the model uses basic meteorological data as the primary input; and simulates surface energy and moisture balances, groundwater recharge and flow, and all components of streamflow; it is well suited for exploring the hydrologic response to climate change, although no such simulations are included in this report. The model was developed as a tool for future application; however, example simulations are provided in this report. In the example simulations, the model is used to explore the influence of well location and geologic structure on stream capture by pumping wells. Wells were simulated at three locations within a 12-mi area close to known groundwater discharge areas and crossed by a regional fault zone. Simulations indicate that the magnitude and timing of stream capture from pumping is largely controlled by the geographic location of the wells, but that faults can have a large influence on the propagation of pumping stresses.

Oregon

Hydrogeologic framework and selected components of the groundwater budget for the upper Umatilla River Basin, Oregon

Executive Summary This report presents a summary of the hydrogeology of the upper Umatilla River Basin, Oregon, based on characterization of the hydrogeologic framework, horizontal and vertical directions of groundwater flow, trends in groundwater levels, and components of the groundwater budget. The conceptual model of the groundwater flow system integrates available data and information on the groundwater resources of the upper Umatilla River Basin and provides insights regarding key hydrologic processes, such as the interaction between the groundwater and surface water systems and the hydrologic budget. The conceptual groundwater model developed for the study area divides the groundwater flow system into five hydrogeologic units: a sedimentary unit, three Columbia River basalt units, and a basement rock unit. The sedimentary unit, which is not widely used as a source of groundwater in the upper basin, is present primarily in the lowlands and consists of conglomerate, loess, silt and sand deposits, and recent alluvium. The Columbia River Basalt Group is a series of Miocene flood basalts that are present throughout the study area. The basalt is uplifted in the southeastern half of the study area, and either underlies the sedimentary unit, or is exposed at the surface. The interflow zones of the flood basalts are the primary aquifers in the study area. Beneath the flood basalts are basement rocks composed of Paleogene to Pre-Tertiary sedimentary, volcanic, igneous, and metamorphic rocks that are not used as a source of groundwater in the upper Umatilla River Basin. The major components of the groundwater budget in the upper Umatilla River Basin are (1) groundwater recharge, (2) groundwater discharge to surface water and wells, (3) subsurface flow into and out of the basin, and (4) changes in groundwater storage. Recharge from precipitation occurs primarily in the upland areas of the Blue Mountains. Mean annual recharge from infiltration of precipitation for the upper Umatilla River Basin during 1951–2010 is about 9.6 inches per year (in/yr). Annual recharge from precipitation for water year 2010 ranged from 3 in. in the lowland area to about 30 in. in the Blue Mountains. Using Kahle and others (2011) data and methods from the Columbia Plateau regional model, average annual recharge from irrigation is estimated to be about 2.2 in/yr for the 13 square miles of irrigated land in the upper Umatilla River Basin. Groundwater discharges to streams throughout the year and is a large component of annual streamflow in the upper Umatilla River Basin. Upward vertical hydraulic gradients near the Umatilla River indicate the potential for groundwater discharge. Groundwater discharge to the Umatilla River generally occurs in the upper part of the basin, upstream from the main stem. Groundwater development in the upper Umatilla River Basin began sometime after 1950 (Davies-Smith and others, 1988; Gonthier and Bolke, 1991). By water year 2010, groundwater use in the upper Umatilla River Basin was approximately 11,214 acre-feet (acre-ft). Total groundwater withdrawals for the study area were estimated at 7,575 acre-ft for irrigation, 3,173 acre-ft for municipal use, and 466 acre-ft for domestic use. Total groundwater flow into or from the study area depends locally on geology and hydraulic head distribution. Estimates of subsurface flow were calculated using the U.S. Geological Survey Columbia Plateau regional groundwater flow model. Net flux values range from 25,000 to 27,700 acre-ft per year and indicate that groundwater is moving out of the upper Umatilla River Basin into the lower Umatilla River Basin. Water level changes depend on storage changes within an aquifer, and storage changes depend on the storage properties of the aquifer, as well as recharge to or discharge from the aquifer. Groundwater level data in the upper Umatilla River Basin are mostly available from wells in Columbia River basalt units, which indicate areas of long-term water level declines in the Grande Ronde basalt unit near Pendleton and Athena, Oregon. Groundwater levels in the Wanapum basalt unit do not show long-term declines in the upper Umatilla River Basin. Because of pumping, some areas in the upper Umatilla River Basin have shown a decrease, or reversal, in the upward vertical head gradient. Key data needs are improvement of the spatial and temporal distribution of water-level data collection and continued monitoring of streamflow gaging sites. Additionally, refinement of recharge estimates would enhance understanding of the processes that provide the groundwater resources in the upper Umatilla River Basin.

Oregon

Construction, calibration, and validation of the RBM10 water temperature model for the Trinity River, northern California

We constructed a one-dimensional daily averaged water-temperature model to simulate Trinity River temperatures for 1980–2013. The purpose of this model is to assess effects of water-management actions on water temperature and to provide water temperature inputs for a salmon population dynamics model. Simulated meteorological data, observed streamflow data, and observed water temperatures were used as model inputs to simulate a continuous 34-year time series of historical daily mean water temperature at eight locations along 112.2 river miles from Lewiston Dam near Weaverville, California, downstream to the Klamath River confluence. To demonstrate the utility of the model to inform management actions, we simulated three management alternatives to assess the effects of bypass flow augmentation in a drought year, 1994, and compared those results to the simulated historical baseline, referred to as the “No Action” alternative scenario. Augmentation flows from the Lewiston Dam bypass consist of temperature-controlled releases capable of cooling downstream water temperatures in hot times of the year, which can reduce the probability of disease outbreaks in fish populations. Outputs from the Trinity River water-temperature model were then used as inputs to an existing water-temperature model of the Klamath River to evaluate the effect of augmentation flow releases on water temperatures in the lower Klamath River. We structured the Trinity River water-temperature model in River Basin Model-10 (RBM10), which uses a simple equilibrium flow model, assuming discharge in each river segment on each day is transmitted downstream instantaneously. The model uses a heat-budget formulation to quantify heat flux at the air-water interface. Inputs for the heat budget are calculated from daily mean meteorological data, including net shortwave solar radiation, net longwave atmospheric radiation, air temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and a psychrometric constant needed to calculate the Bowen ratio. The modeling domain was divided into eight reaches ranging in length from 8.8 to 20.6 miles, which were calibrated and validated separately with observed water temperature data collected irregularly from 1980 to 2013. Root mean square errors of observed and simulated water temperatures for the eight reaches ranged from 0.25 to 1.12 degrees Celsius (°C). Mean absolute errors ranged from 0.18 to 0.89 °C. For model validation, a k -fold cross-validation technique was used. Validation root mean square error and mean absolute error for the eight reaches ranged from 0.24 to 1.11 °C and from 0.18 to 0.89 °C, respectively. Augmentation scenarios were based on historical hydrological and meteorological data, combined with prescribed flow and temperature releases from Lewiston Dam provided by the Bureau of Reclamation. Water releases were scheduled to achieve targeted flows of 2,500, 2,800, and 3,200 cubic feet per second in the lower Klamath River from mid-August through late September, coinciding with the upstream migration of adult fall-run Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ). Water temperatures simulated at river mile 5.7 on the Klamath River showed a 5 °C decrease from the No Action historical baseline, which was near or greater than 23 °C when augmentation began in mid-August. Thereafter, an approximate 1 °C difference among augmentation scenarios emerged, with the decrease in water temperature commensurate to the level of augmentation. All augmentation scenarios simulated water temperatures equal to or less than 21 °C from mid-August through late September. Water temperatures equal to or greater than 23 °C are of particular interest because of a thermal threshold known to inhibit upstream migration of salmon. When temperatures exceed this approximate 23 °C threshold, Chinook salmon are known to congregate in high densities in thermal refugias and show extended residence times, which can potentially trigger epizootic outbreaks such as of Ichthyophthirius multifiliis (“Ich”) and Flavobacterium columnare (“Columnaris”) that were the causative factors of the Klamath River fish kill in 2002. A model with the ability to simulate water temperatures in response to management actions at the basin scale is a valuable asset for water managers who must make decisions about how best to use limited water resources, which directly affect the state of fisheries in the Klamath Basin.

California

Simulating future water temperatures in the North Santiam River, Oregon

A previously calibrated two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) of Detroit Lake in western Oregon was used in conjunction with inflows derived from Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic models to examine in-lake and downstream water temperature effects under future climate conditions. Current and hypothetical operations and structures at Detroit Dam were imposed on boundary conditions derived from downscaled General Circulation Models in base (1990–1999) and future (2059–2068) periods. Compared with the base period, future air temperatures were about 2 °C warmer year-round. Higher air temperature and lower precipitation under the future period resulted in a 23% reduction in mean annual PRMS-simulated discharge and a 1 °C increase in mean annual estimated stream temperatures flowing into the lake compared to the base period. Simulations incorporating current operational rules and minimum release rates at Detroit Dam to support downstream habitat, irrigation, and water supply during key times of year resulted in lower future lake levels. That scenario results in a lake level that is above the dam’s spillway crest only about half as many days in the future compared to historical frequencies. Managing temperature downstream of Detroit Dam depends on the ability to blend warmer water from the lake’s surface with cooler water from deep in the lake, and the spillway is an important release point near the lake’s surface. Annual average in-lake and release temperatures from Detroit Lake warmed 1.1 °C and 1.5 °C from base to future periods under present-day dam operational rules and fill schedules. Simulated dam operations such as beginning refill of the lake 30 days earlier or reducing minimum release rates (to keep more water in the lake to retain the use of the spillway) mitigated future warming to 0.4 and 0.9 °C below existing operational scenarios during the critical autumn spawning period for endangered salmonids. A hypothetical floating surface withdrawal at Detroit Dam improved temperature control in summer and autumn (0.6 °C warmer in summer, 0.6 °C cooler in autumn compared to existing structures) without altering release rates or lake level management rules.

Oregon

Assessing potential effects of highway runoff on receiving-water quality at selected sites in Oregon with the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM)

In 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Oregon Department of Transportation began a cooperative study to demonstrate use of the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM) for runoff-quality analyses in Oregon. SELDM can be used to estimate stormflows, constituent concentrations, and loads from the area upstream of a stormflow discharge site, from the site of interest and in the receiving waters downstream of the discharge. SELDM also can be used to assess the potential effectiveness of best management practices (BMP) for mitigating potential effects of runoff in receiving waters. Nominally, SELDM is a highway-runoff model, but it is well suited for analysis of runoff from other land uses as well. This report provides case studies and examples to demonstrate stochastic-runoff modeling concepts and to demonstrate application of the model. Basin characteristics from six Oregon highway study sites were used to demonstrate various applications of the model. The highway catchment and upstream basin drainage areas of these study sites ranged from 3.85 to 11.83 acres and from 0.16 to 6.56 square miles, respectively. The upstream basins of two sites are urbanized, and the remaining four sites are less than 5 percent impervious. SELDM facilitates analysis by providing precipitation, pre-storm streamflow, and other variables by region or from hydrologically similar sites. In Oregon, there can be large variations in precipitation and streamflow among nearby sites. Therefore, spatially interpolated geographic information system data layers containing storm-event precipitation and pre-storm streamflow statistics specific to Oregon were created for the study using Kriging techniques. Concentrations and loads of cadmium, chloride, chromium, copper, iron, lead, nickel, phosphorus, and zinc were simulated at the six Oregon highway study sites by using statistics from sites in other areas of the country. Water‑quality datasets measured at hydrologically similar basins in the vicinity of the study sites in Oregon were selected and compiled to estimate stormflow-quality statistics for the upstream basins. The quality of highway runoff and some upstream stormflow constituents were simulated by using statistical moments (average, standard deviation, and skew) of the logarithms of data. Some upstream stormflow constituents were simulated by using transport curves, which are relations between stormflow and constituent concentrations. Stochastic analyses were done by using SELDM to demonstrate use of the model and to illustrate the types of information that stochastic analyses may provide: 1. An analysis was done to demonstrate use of dilution factors as an initial reconnaissance tool for comparing relative risk among sites. 2. An analysis of hardness-dependent, water-quality criteria was done to illustrate the effects of variations in hardness and flow on the application and interpretation of such criteria. This analysis shows that hardness-dependent criteria can vary by an order of magnitude among storm events because hardness is diluted by stormflows. 3. An analysis of uncertainties in input and output values was done to demonstrate that properly selected robust datasets are needed to represent conditions at a site of interest. This analysis shows that the rate of water-quality exceedances that are measured or simulated may depend on sample size and the luck of the draw. 4. An analysis was done to demonstrate that SELDM and other Monte Carlo models may generate extreme values from input statistics, which may or may not be feasible based on physicochemical or hydrological limits. 5. An analysis of BMP modeling methods was done to demonstrate use of the model for estimating treatment requirements for meeting water-quality objectives. 6. An analysis of the use of grab sampling and nonstochastic upstream modeling methods was done to evaluate the potential effects on modeling outcomes. Additional analyses using surrogate water-quality datasets for the upstream basin and highway catchment were provided for six Oregon study sites to illustrate the risk-based information that SELDM will produce. These analyses show that the potential effects of highway runoff on receiving-water quality downstream of the outfall depends on the ratio of drainage areas (dilution), the quality of the receiving water upstream of the highway, and the concentration of the criteria of the constituent of interest. These analyses also show that the probability of exceeding a water-quality criterion may depend on the input statistics used, thus careful selection of representative values is important.

Oregon

Simulated effects of dam removal on water temperatures along the Klamath River, Oregon and California, using 2010 Biological Opinion flow requirements

Computer model simulations were run to determine the effects of dam removal on water temperatures along the Klamath River, located in south-central Oregon and northern California, using flow requirements defined in the 2010 Biological Opinion of the National Marine Fisheries Service. A one-dimensional, daily averaged water temperature model (River Basin Model-10) developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region 10, Seattle, Washington, was used in the analysis. This model had earlier been configured and calibrated for the Klamath River by the U.S. Geological Survey for the U.S. Department of the Interior, Klamath Secretarial Determination to simulate the effects of dam removal on water temperatures for current (2011) and future climate change scenarios. The analysis for this report was performed outside of the scope of the Klamath Secretarial Determination process at the request of the Bureau of Reclamation Technical Services Office, Denver, Colorado. <!-- New Paragraph in Abstract Text --> For this analysis, two dam scenarios were simulated: “dams in” and “dams out.” In the “dams in” scenario, existing dams in the Klamath River were kept in place. In the “dams out” scenario, the river was modeled as a natural stream, without the J.C. Boyle, Copco1, Copco2, and Iron Gate Dams, for the entire simulation period. Output from the two dam scenario simulations included daily water temperatures simulated at 29 locations for a 50-year period along the Klamath River between river mile 253 (downstream of Link River Dam) and the Pacific Ocean. Both simulations used identical flow requirements, formulated in the 2010 Biological Opinion, and identical climate conditions based on the period 1961–2009. <!-- These next two paragraphs are used as an example to show how super/sub texts show on the webpage --> Simulated water temperatures from January through June at almost all locations between J.C. Boyle Reservoir and the Pacific Ocean were higher for the “dams out” scenario than for the “dams in” scenario. The simulated mean monthly water temperature increase was highest [1.7–2.2 degrees Celsius (°C)] in May downstream of Iron Gate Dam. However, from August to December, dam removal generally cooled water temperatures. During these months, water temperatures decreased 1°C or more between Copco Lake and locations 50 miles or more downstream. The greatest mean monthly temperature decrease was 4°C in October just downstream of Iron Gate Dam. Near the ocean, the effects of dam removal were small (less than 0.2°C) for most months. However, the mean November temperature near the ocean was almost 0.5°C cooler with dam removal.

Open-File Report

An environmental streamflow assessment for the Santiam River basin, Oregon

The Santiam River is a tributary of the Willamette River in northwestern Oregon and drains an area of 1,810 square miles. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates four dams in the basin, which are used primarily for flood control, hydropower production, recreation, and water-quality improvement. The Detroit and Big Cliff Dams were constructed in 1953 on the North Santiam River. The Green Peter and Foster Dams were completed in 1967 on the South Santiam River. The impacts of the structures have included a decrease in the frequency and magnitude of floods and an increase in low flows. For three North Santiam River reaches, the median of annual 1-day maximum streamflows decreased 42&ndash;50 percent because of regulated streamflow conditions. Likewise, for three reaches in the South Santiam River basin, the median of annual 1-day maximum streamflows decreased 39&ndash;52 percent because of regulation. In contrast to their effect on high flows, the dams increased low flows. The median of annual 7-day minimum flows in six of the seven study reaches increased under regulated streamflow conditions between 60 and 334 percent. On a seasonal basis, median monthly streamflows decreased from February to May and increased from September to January in all the reaches. However, the magnitude of these impacts usually decreased farther downstream from dams because of cumulative inflow from unregulated tributaries and groundwater entering the North, South, and main-stem Santiam Rivers below the dams. A Wilcox rank-sum test of monthly precipitation data from Salem, Oregon, and Waterloo, Oregon, found no significant difference between the pre-and post-dam periods, which suggests that the construction and operation of the dams since the 1950s and 1960s are a primary cause of alterations to the Santiam River basin streamflow regime. In addition to the streamflow analysis, this report provides a geomorphic characterization of the Santiam River basin and the associated conceptual framework for assessing possible geomorphic and ecological changes in response to river-flow modifications. Suggestions for future biomonitoring and investigations are also provided. This study was one in a series of similar tributary streamflow and geomorphic studies conducted for the Willamette Sustainable Rivers Project. The Sustainable Rivers Project is a national effort by the USACE and The Nature Conservancy to develop environmental flow requirements in regulated river systems.

Oregon

Hydrological information products for the Off-Project Water Program of the Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement

The Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement (KBRA) was developed by a diverse group of stakeholders, Federal and State resource management agencies, Tribal representatives, and interest groups to provide a comprehensive solution to ecological and water-supply issues in the Klamath Basin. The Off-Project Water Program (OPWP), one component of the KBRA, has as one of its purposes to permanently provide an additional 30,000 acre-feet of water per year on an average annual basis to Upper Klamath Lake through "voluntary retirement of water rights or water uses or other means as agreed to by the Klamath Tribes, to improve fisheries habitat and also provide for stability of irrigation water deliveries." The geographic area where the water rights could be retired encompasses approximately 1,900 square miles. The OPWP area is defined as including the Sprague River drainage, the Sycan River drainage downstream of Sycan Marsh, the Wood River drainage, and the Williamson River drainage from Kirk Reef at the southern end of Klamath Marsh downstream to the confluence with the Sprague River. Extensive, broad, flat, poorly drained uplands, valleys, and wetlands characterize much of the study area. Irrigation is almost entirely used for pasture. To assist parties involved with decisionmaking and implementation of the OPWP, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Klamath Tribes and other stakeholders, created five hydrological information products. These products include GIS digital maps and datasets containing spatial information on evapotranspiration, subirrigation indicators, water rights, subbasin streamflow statistics, and return-flow indicators. The evapotranspiration (ET) datasets were created under contract for this study by Evapotranspiration, Plus, LLC, of Twin Falls, Idaho. A high-resolution remote sensing technique known as Mapping Evapotranspiration at High Resolution and Internalized Calibration (METRIC) was used to create estimates of the spatial distribution of ET. The METRIC technique uses thermal infrared Landsat imagery to quantify actual evapotranspiration at a 30-meter resolution that can be related to individual irrigated fields. Because evaporation uses heat energy, ground surfaces with large ET rates are left cooler as a result of ET than ground surfaces that have less ET. As a consequence, irrigated fields appear in the Landsat images as cooler than nonirrigated fields. Products produced from this study include total seasonal and total monthly (April-October) actual evapotranspiration maps for 2004 (a dry year) and 2006 (a wet year). Maps showing indicators of natural subirrigation were also provided by this study. "Subirrigation" as used here is the evapotranspiration of shallow groundwater by plants with roots that penetrate to or near the water table. Subirrigation often occurs at locations where the water table is at or above the plant rooting depth. Natural consumptive use by plants diminishes the benefit of retiring water rights in subirrigated areas. Some agricultural production may be possible, however, on subirrigated lands for which water rights are retired. Because of the difficulty in precisely mapping and quantifying subirrigation, this study presents several sources of spatially mapped data that can be used as indicators of higher subirrigation probability. These include the floodplain boundaries defined by stream geomorphology, water-table depth defined in Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) soil surveys, and soil rooting depth defined in NRCS soil surveys. The two water-rights mapping products created in the study were "points of diversion" (POD) and "place of use" (POU) for surface-water irrigation rights. To create these maps, all surface-water rights data, decrees, certificates, permits, and unadjudicated claims within the entire 1,900 square mile study area were aggregated into a common GIS geodatabase. Surface-water irrigation rights within a 5-mile buffer of the study area were then selected and identified. The POU area was then totaled by water right for primary and supplemental water rights. The maximum annual volume (acre-feet) allowed under each water right also was calculated using the POU area and duty (allowable annual irrigation application in feet). In cases where a water right has more than one designated POD, the total volume for the water right was equally distributed to each POD listed for the water right. Because of this, mapped distribution of diversion rates for some rights may differ from actual practice. Water-right information in the map products was from digital datasets obtained from the Oregon Water Resources Department and was, at the time acquired, the best available compilation of water-right information available. Because the completeness and accuracy of the water-right data could not be verified, users are encouraged to check directly with the Oregon Water Resources Department where specific information on individual rights or locations is essential. A dataset containing streamflow statistics for 72 subbasins in the study area was created for the study area. The statistics include annual flow durations (5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 95-percent exceedances) and 7-day, 10-year (7Q10) and 7-day, 2-year (7Q2) low flows, and were computed using regional regression equations based on measured streamflow records in the region. Daily streamflow records used were adjusted as needed for crop consumptive use; therefore the statistics represent streamflow under more natural conditions as though irrigation diversions did not exist. Statistics are provided for flow rates resulting from streamflow originating from within the entire drainage area upstream of the subbasin pour point (referring to the outlet of the contributing drainage basin). The statistics were computed for the purpose of providing decision makers with the ability to estimate streamflow that would be expected after water conservation techniques have been implemented or a water right has been retired. A final product from the study are datasets of indicators of the potential for subsurface return flow of irrigation water from agricultural areas to nearby streams. The datasets contain information on factors such as proximity to surface-water features, geomorphic floodplain characteristics, and depth to water. The digital data, metadata, and example illustrations for the datasets described in this report are available on-line from the USGS Water Resources National Spatial Data Infrastructure (NSDI) Node Website http://water.usgs.gov/lookup/getgislist or from the U.S. Government website DATA.gov at http://www.data.gov with links provided in a Microsoft&reg; Excel&reg; workbook in appendix A.

California;Oregon

Integrated watershed-scale response to climate change for selected basins across the United States

A study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) evaluated the hydrologic response to different projected carbon emission scenarios of the 21st century using a hydrologic simulation model. This study involved five major steps: (1) setup, calibrate and evaluated the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model in 14 basins across the United States by local USGS personnel; (2) acquire selected simulated carbon emission scenarios from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; (3) statistical downscaling of these scenarios to create PRMS input files which reflect the future climatic conditions of these scenarios; (4) generate PRMS projections for the carbon emission scenarios for the 14 basins; and (5) analyze the modeled hydrologic response. This report presents an overview of this study, details of the methodology, results from the 14 basin simulations, and interpretation of these results. A key finding is that the hydrological response of the different geographical regions of the United States to potential climate change may be different, depending on the dominant physical processes of that particular region. Also considered is the tremendous amount of uncertainty present in the carbon emission scenarios and how this uncertainty propagates through the hydrologic simulations.

Scientific Investigations Report

Simulating potential structural and operational changes for Detroit Dam on the North Santiam River, Oregon, for downstream temperature management

Detroit Dam was constructed in 1953 on the North Santiam River in western Oregon and resulted in the formation of Detroit Lake. With a full-pool storage volume of 455,100 acre-feet and a dam height of 463 feet, Detroit Lake is one of the largest and most important reservoirs in the Willamette River basin in terms of power generation, recreation, and water storage and releases. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers operates Detroit Dam as part of a system of 13 reservoirs in the Willamette Project to meet multiple goals, which include flood-damage protection, power generation, downstream navigation, recreation, and irrigation. A distinct cycle in water temperature occurs in Detroit Lake as spring and summer heating through solar radiation creates a warm layer of water near the surface and isolates cold water below. Controlling the temperature of releases from Detroit Dam, therefore, is highly dependent on the location, characteristics, and usage of the dam's outlet structures. Prior to operational changes in 2007, Detroit Dam had a well-documented effect on downstream water temperature that was problematic for endangered salmonid fish species, releasing water that was too cold in midsummer and too warm in autumn. This unnatural seasonal temperature pattern caused problems in the timing of fish migration, spawning, and emergence. In this study, an existing calibrated 2-dimensional hydrodynamic water-quality model [CE-QUAL-W2] of Detroit Lake was used to determine how changes in dam operation or changes to the structural release points of Detroit Dam might affect downstream water temperatures under a range of historical hydrologic and meteorological conditions. The results from a subset of the Detroit Lake model scenarios then were used as forcing conditions for downstream CE-QUAL-W2 models of Big Cliff Reservoir (the small reregulating reservoir just downstream of Detroit Dam) and the North Santiam and Santiam Rivers. Many combinations of environmental, operational, and structural options were explored with the model scenarios. Multiple downstream temperature targets were used along with three sets of environmental forcing conditions representing cool/wet, normal, and hot/dry conditions. Five structural options at Detroit Dam were modeled, including the use of existing outlets, one hypothetical variable-elevation outlet such as a sliding gate, a hypothetical combination of a floating outlet and a fixed-elevation outlet, and a hypothetical combination of a floating outlet and a sliding gate. Finally, 14 sets of operational guidelines for Detroit Dam were explored to gain an understanding of the effects of imposing different downstream minimum streamflows, imposing minimum outflow rules to specific outlets, and managing the level of the lake with different timelines through the year. Selected subsets of these combinations of operational and structural scenarios were run through the downstream models of Big Cliff Reservoir and the North Santiam and Santiam Rivers to explore how hypothetical changes at Detroit Dam might provide improved temperatures for endangered salmonids downstream of the Detroit-Big Cliff Dam complex. Conclusions that can be drawn from these model scenarios include: *The water-temperature targets set by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for releases from Detroit Dam can be met through a combination of new dam outlets or a delayed drawdown of the lake in autumn. *Spring and summer dam operations greatly affect the available release temperatures and operational flexibility later in the autumn. Releasing warm water during midsummer tends to keep more cool water available for release in autumn. *The ability to meet downstream temperature targets during spring depends on the characteristics of the available outlets. Under existing conditions, although warm water sometimes is present at the lake surface in spring and early summer, such water may not be available for release if the lake level is either well below or well above the spillway crest. *Managing lake releases to meet downstream temperature targets depends on having outlet structures that can access both (warm) lake surface water and (cold) deeper lake water throughout the year. The existing outlets at Detroit Dam do not allow near-surface waters to be released during times when the lake surface level is below the spillway (spring and autumn). *Using the existing outlets at Detroit Dam, lake level management is important to the water temperature of releases because it controls the availability and depth of water at the spillway. When lake level is lowered below the spillway crest in late summer, the loss of access to warm water at the lake surface can result in abrupt changes to release temperatures. *Because the power-generation intakes (penstocks) are 166 feet below the full-pool lake level, imposing minimum power production requirements at Detroit Dam limits the amount of warm surface water that can be expelled from the lake in midsummer, thereby postponing and amplifying warm outflows from Detroit Lake into the autumn spawning season. *Likewise, imposing minimum power production requirements at Detroit Dam in autumn can limit the amount of cool hypolimnetic water that is released from the lake, thereby limiting cool outflows from Detroit Lake during the autumn spawning season. *Model simulations indicate that a delayed drawdown of Detroit Lake in autumn would result in better control over release temperatures in the immediate downstream vicinity of Big Cliff Dam, but the reduced outflows necessary to retain more water in the lake in late summer are more susceptible to rapid heating downstream. *Compared to the existing outlets at Detroit Dam, floating or sliding-gate outlet structures can provide greater control over release temperatures because they provide better access to warm water at the lake surface and cooler water at depth. These conclusions can be grouped into several common themes. First, optimal and flexible management and achievement of downstream temperature goals requires that releases of warm water near the surface of the lake and cold water below the thermocline are both possible with the available dam outlets during spring, summer, and autumn. This constraint can be met to some extent with existing outlets, but only if access to the spillway is extended into autumn by keeping the lake level higher than called for by the current rule curve (the typical target water-surface elevation throughout the year). If new outlets are considered, a variable-elevation outlet such as a sliding gate structure, or a floating outlet in combination with a fixed-elevation outlet at sufficient depth to access cold water, is likely to work well in terms of accessing a range of water temperatures and achieving downstream temperature targets. Furthermore, model results indicate that it is important to release warm water from near the lake surface during midsummer. If not released downstream, the warm water will build up at the top of the lake as a result of solar energy inputs and the thermocline will deepen, potentially causing warm water to reach the depth of deeper fixed-elevation outlets in autumn, particularly when the lake level is drawn down to make room for flood storage. Delaying the drawdown in autumn can help to keep the thermocline above such outlets and preserve access to cold water. Although it is important to generate hydropower at Detroit Dam, minimum power-production requirements limit the ability of dam operators to meet downstream temperature targets with existing outlet structures. The location of the power penstocks below the thermocline in spring and most of summer causes the release of more cool water during summer than is optimal. Reducing the power-production constraint allows the temperature target to be met more frequently, but at the cost of less power generation. Finally, running the Detroit Dam, Big Cliff Dam, and North Santiam and Santiam River models in series allows dam operators to evaluate how different operational strategies or combinations of new dam outlets might affect downstream temperatures for many miles of critical endangered salmonid habitat. Temperatures can change quickly in these downstream reaches as the river exchanges heat with its surroundings, and heating or cooling of 6 degrees Celsius is not unusual in the 40–50 miles downstream of Big Cliff Dam. The results published in this report supersede preliminary results published in U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2011-1268 (Buccola and Rounds, 2011). Those preliminary results are still valid, but the results in this report are more current and comprehensive.

Oregon

Preliminary assessment of channel stability and bed-material transport along Hunter Creek, southwestern Oregon

This preliminary assessment of (1) bed-material transport in the Hunter Creek basin, (2) historical changes in channel condition, and (3) supplementary data needed to inform permitting decisions regarding instream gravel extraction revealed the following: Along the lower 12.4 km (kilometers) of Hunter Creek from its confluence with the Little South Fork Hunter Creek to its mouth, the river has confined and unconfined segments and is predominately alluvial in its lowermost 11 km. This 12.4-km stretch of river can be divided into two geomorphically distinct study reaches based primarily on valley physiography. In the Upper Study Reach (river kilometer [RKM] 12.4-6), the active channel comprises a mixed bed of bedrock, boulders, and smaller grains. The stream is confined in the upper 1.4 km of the reach by a bedrock canyon and in the lower 2.4 km by its valley. In the Lower Study Reach (RKM 6-0), where the area of gravel bars historically was largest, the stream flows over bed material that is predominately alluvial sediments. The channel alternates between confined and unconfined segments. The primary human activities that likely have affected bed-material transport and the extent and area of gravel bars are (1) historical and ongoing aggregate extraction from gravel bars in the study area and (2) timber harvest and associated road construction throughout the basin. These anthropogenic activities likely have varying effects on sediment transport and deposition throughout the study area and over time. Although assessing the relative effects of these anthropogenic activities on sediment dynamics would be challenging, the Hunter Creek basin may serve as a case study for such an assessment because it is mostly free of other alterations to hydrologic and geomorphic processes such as flow regulation, dredging, and other navigation improvements that are common in many Oregon coastal basins. Several datasets are available that may support a more detailed physical assessment of Hunter Creek. The entire study area has been captured in aerial photographs at least once per decade since the 1940s. This temporally rich photograph dataset would support quantitative analyses of changes in channel planform as well as vegetation cover. Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) data collected in 2008 would facilitate hydraulic and sediment-transport modeling and characterization of bar elevations throughout most of the study area. Few studies describing channel morphology and sediment transport exist for the Hunter Creek basin. The most detailed study reported channel incision and bank instability as well as the loss of point bars and pools in the lower 3.9 km of Hunter Creek from slightly downstream of its confluence with Yorke Creek to its mouth (EA Engineering, Sci-ence, and Technology, 1998). Repeat channel cross-sections collected from 1994 to 2010 at four bridges indicate that Hunter Creek is dynamic and subject to channel shifting, aggradation, and incision. Despite this dynamism, the channel at three bridge crossings showed little net change in thalweg elevation during this period. However, the channel thalweg aggraded 0.55 m from 2004 to 2008 near the bridge at RKM 3.5. Systematic delineation of gravel bars from aerial photographs collected in 1940, 1965, 2005, and 2009 indicates a 52-percent reduction in the area of bed-material sediment throughout the study area from 1940 to 2009. Net bar loss was greatest in the Lower Study Reach from RKM 1-4 and mainly is associ-ated with the encroachment of vegetation onto upper-bar surfaces lacking apparent vegetation in 1940. Bar-surface material was approximately equal in size to bar-subsurface material at Conn Creek Bar, whereas it was distinctly coarser than the subsurface material at Menasha Bar. Armoring ratios, which indicate the coarseness of the bar surface relative to the bar subsurface, were calculated as 0.97 for Conn Creek Bar and 1.5 for Menasha Bar. These ratios tentatively show that

Oregon

Simulating daily water temperatures of the Klamath River under dam removal and climate change scenarios

A one-dimensional daily averaged water temperature model was used to simulate Klamath River temperatures for two management alternatives under historical climate conditions and six future climate scenarios. The analysis was conducted for the Secretarial Determination on removal of four hydroelectric dams on the Klamath River. In 2012, the Secretary of the Interior will determine if dam removal and implementation of the Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement (KBRA) (Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement, 2010) will advance restoration of salmonid fisheries and is in the public interest. If the Secretary decides dam removal is appropriate, then the four dams are scheduled for removal in 2020. Water temperature simulations were conducted to compare the effect of two management alternatives: the no-action alternative where dams remain in place, and the action alternative where dam removal occurs in 2020 along with habitat restoration. Each management alternative was simulated under historical climate conditions (1961-2010) and six 50-year (2012-2061) climate scenarios. The model selected for the study, River Basin Model-10 (RBM10), was used to simulate water temperatures over a 253-mile reach of the Klamath River located in south-central Oregon and northern California. RBM10 uses a simple equilibrium flow model, assuming discharge in each river segment on each day is transmitted downstream instantaneously. The model uses a heat budget formulation to quantify heat flux at the air-water interface. Inputs for the heat budget were calculated from daily-mean meteorological data, including net shortwave solar radiation, net longwave atmospheric radiation, air temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and a psychrometric constant needed to calculate the Bowen ratio. The modeling domain was divided into nine reaches ranging in length from 10.8 to 42.4 miles, which were calibrated and validated separately with measured water temperature data collected irregularly from 1961 to 2010. Calibration root mean square errors of observed versus simulated water temperatures for the nine reaches ranged from 0.8 to 1.5 degrees C. Mean absolute errors ranged from 0.6 to 1.2 degrees C. For model validation, a k-fold cross-validation technique was used. Validation root mean square error and mean absolute error for the nine reaches ranged from 0.8 to 1.4 degrees C and 0.8 to 1.2 degrees C, respectively. Input data for the six future climate scenarios (2012-2061) were derived from historical hydrological and meteorological data and simulated meteorological output from five Global Circulation Models. Total Maximum Daily Loads or other regulatory processes that might reduce future water temperatures were not included in the simulations. Under the current climate conditions scenario, impacts of dam removal on water temperatures were greatest near Iron Gate Dam (near Yreka, California) and were attenuated in the lower reaches of the Klamath River. May and October simulated mean water temperatures increased and decreased by approximately 1-2 degrees C and 2-4 degrees C, respectively, downstream of Iron Gate Dam after dam removal. Dam removal also resulted in an earlier annual temperature cycle shift of 18 days, 5 days, and 2 days, near Iron Gate Dam, Scott River, and Trinity River, respectively. Although the magnitude of precipitation and air temperature change predicted by the five Global Circulation Models varied, all five models resulted in progressive incremental increases in water temperatures with each decade from 2012 to 2061. However, dam removal under KBRA appeared to delay the effects of climate change to some extent near Iron Gate Dam. With dam removal under KBRA, annual-mean water temperatures exceeded the 49-year historical mean temperature beginning in 2045; whereas with dams, annual-mean temperatures exceeded the historical mean beginning in 2025. Potential changes in seasonal water temperatures resulting from dam removal, with or without future climat

Open-File Report

Channel change and bed-material transport in the Umpqua River basin, Oregon

The Umpqua River drains 12,103 square kilometers of western Oregon; with headwaters in the Cascade Range, the river flows through portions of the Klamath Mountains and Oregon Coast Range before entering the Pacific Ocean. Above the head of tide, the Umpqua River, along with its major tributaries, the North and South Umpqua Rivers, flows on a mixed bedrock and alluvium bed, alternating between bedrock rapids and intermittent, shallow gravel bars composed of gravel to cobble-sized clasts. These bars have been a source of commercial aggregate since the mid-twentieth century. Below the head of tide, the Umpqua River contains large bars composed of mud and sand. Motivated by ongoing permitting and aquatic habitat concerns related to in-stream gravel mining on the fluvial reaches, this study evaluated spatial and temporal trends in channel change and bed-material transport for 350 kilometers of river channel along the Umpqua, North Umpqua, and South Umpqua Rivers. The assessment produced (1) detailed mapping of the active channel, using aerial photographs and repeat surveys, and (2) a quantitative estimation of bed-material flux that drew upon detailed measurements of particle size and lithology, equations of transport capacity, and a sediment yield analysis. Bed-material transport capacity estimates at 45 sites throughout the South Umpqua and main stem Umpqua Rivers for the period 1951-2008 result in wide-ranging transport capacity estimates, reflecting the difficulty of applying equations of bed-material transport to a supply-limited river. Median transport capacity values calculated from surface-based equations of bedload transport for each of the study reaches provide indications of maximum possible transport rates and range from 8,000 to 27,000 metric tons per year (tons/yr) for the South Umpqua River and 20,000 to 82,000 metric tons/yr for the main stem Umpqua River upstream of the head of tide; the North Umpqua River probably contributes little bed material. A plausible range of average annual transport rates for the South and main stem Umpqua Rivers, based on bedload transport capacity estimates for bars with reasonable values for reference shear stress, is between 500 and 20,000 metric tons/yr. An empirical bed-material yield analysis predicts 20,000-50,000 metric tons/yr on the South Umpqua River and main stem Umpqua River through the Oregon Coast Range, decreasing to approximately 30,000 metric tons/yr at the head of tide. Surveys of individual mining sites in the South Umpqua River indicate minimum local bed-material flux rates that are typically less than 10,000 metric tons/yr but range up to 30,600 metric tons/yr in high-flow years. On the basis of all of these analyses, actual bedload flux in most years is probably less than 25,000 metric tons/yr in the South Umpqua and main stem Umpqua Rivers, with the North Umpqua River probably contributing negligible amounts. For comparison, the estimated annual volume of commercial gravel extraction from the South Umpqua River between 2001 and 2004 ranged from 610 to 36,570 metric tons, indicating that historical in-stream gravel extraction may have been a substantial fraction of the overall bedload flux.

Oregon

Effects of upstream dams versus groundwater pumping on stream temperature under varying climate conditions

The relative impact of a large upstream dam versus in‐reach groundwater pumping on stream temperatures was analyzed for humid, semiarid, and arid conditions with long dry seasons to represent typical climate regions where large dams are present, such as the western United States or eastern Australia. Stream temperatures were simulated using the CE‐QUAL‐W2 water quality model over a 110 km model grid, with the presence or absence of a dam at the top of the reach and pumping in the lower 60 km of the reach. Measured meteorological data from three representative locations were used as model input to simulate the impact of varying climate conditions on streamflow and stream temperature. For each climate condition four hypothetical streamflow scenarios were modeled: (1) natural (no dam or pumping), (2) large upstream dam present, (3) dam with in‐reach pumping, and (4) no dam with pumping, resulting in 12 cases. Dam removal, in the presence or absence of pumping, resulted in significant changes in stream temperature throughout the year for all three climate conditions. From March to August, the presence of a dam caused monthly mean stream temperatures to decrease on average by approximately 3.0°C, 2.5°C, and 2.0°C for the humid, semiarid, and arid conditions, respectively; however, stream temperatures generally increased from September to February. Pumping caused stream temperatures to warm in summer and cool in winter by generally less than 0.5°C because of a smaller pumping‐induced alteration in streamflow relative to the dam. Though the presence or absence of a large dam led to greater changes in stream temperature than the presence or absence of pumping, ephemeral conditions were increased both temporally and spatially because of pumping.

Water Resources Research

Channel change and bed-material transport in the Umpqua River basin, Oregon

The Umpqua River drains 12,103 km 2 of western Oregon, heading in the Cascade Range and draining portions of the Klamath Mountains and Coast Range before entering the Pacific Ocean. Above the head of tide, the Umpqua River, along with its major tributaries, the North and South Umpqua Rivers, flows on a mixed bedrock and alluvium bed, alternating between bedrock rapids and intermittent, shallow gravel bars composed of gravel to cobble-sized clasts. These bars have been a source of commercial aggregate since the mid-twentieth century. Below the head of tide, the Umpqua River contains large bars composed of mud and sand. Motivated by ongoing permitting and aquatic habitat concerns related to instream gravel mining on the fluvial reaches, this study evaluated spatial and temporal trends in channel change and bed-material transport for 350 km of river channel along the Umpqua, North Umpqua, and South Umpqua Rivers. The assessment produced (1) detailed mapping of the active channel, using aerial photographs and repeat surveys and (2) a quantitative estimation of bed-material flux that drew upon detailed measurements of particle size and lithology, equations of transport capacity, and a sediment yield analysis. Bed-material transport capacity estimates at 45 sites throughout the South Umpqua and mainstem Umpqua Rivers for the period 1951–2008 result in wide-ranging transport capacity estimates, reflecting the difficulty of applying equations of bed-material transport to a supply-limited river. Median transport capacity values calculated from surface-based equations of bedload transport for each of the study reaches provide indications of maximum possible transport rates and range from 8,000 to 27,000 metric tons/yr for the South Umpqua River and 20,000 to 82,000 metric tons/yr for the mainstem Umpqua River upstream of the head of tide; the North Umpqua River probably contributes little bed material. A plausible range of average annual transport rates for the South and mainstem Umpqua Rivers, based on bedload transport capacity estimates for bars with reasonable values for reference shear stress, is between 500 and 20,000 metric tons/yr. An empirical bed-material yield analysis predicts 20,000–50,000 metric tons/yr on the South Umpqua River and mainstem Umpqua River through the Coast Range, decreasing to approximately 30,000 metric tons/yr at the head of tide. Surveys of individual mining sites in the South Umpqua River indicate minimum local bed-material flux rates that are typically less than 10,000 metric tons/yr but that range up to 30,600 metric tons/yr in high-flow years. On the basis of all of these analyses, actual bedload flux in most years is probably less than 25,000 metric tons/yr in the South Umpqua River and Umpqua Rivers, with the North Umpqua River probably contributing negligible amounts. For comparison, the estimated annual volume of commercial gravel extraction from the South Umpqua River between 2001 and 2004 ranged from 610 to 36,570 metric tons, indicating that historical instream gravel extraction may have been a substantial fraction of the overall bedload flux.

Oregon