Geology topics

Jeremy N. Thomas

Publications and source records attributed to Jeremy N. Thomas.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2013

Insignificant solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes

We examine the claim that solar-terrestrial interaction, as measured by sunspots, solar wind velocity, and geomagnetic activity, might play a role in triggering earthquakes. We count the number of earthquakes having magnitudes that exceed chosen thresholds in calendar years, months, and days, and we order these counts by the corresponding rank of annual, monthly, and daily averages of the solar-terrestrial variables. We measure the statistical significance of the difference between the earthquake-number distributions below and above the median of the solar-terrestrial averages by χ 2 and Student's t tests. Across a range of earthquake magnitude thresholds, we find no consistent and statistically significant distributional differences. We also introduce time lags between the solar-terrestrial variables and the number of earthquakes, but again no statistically significant distributional difference is found. We cannot reject the null hypothesis of no solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2012

On the reported ionospheric precursor of the 1999 Hector Mine, California earthquake

Using Global Positioning System (GPS) data from sites near the 16 Oct. 1999 Hector Mine, California earthquake, Pulinets et al. (2007) identified anomalous changes in the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) starting one week prior to the earthquake. Pulinets (2007) suggested that precursory phenomena of this type could be useful for predicting earthquakes. On the other hand, and in a separate analysis, Afraimovich et al. (2004) concluded that TEC variations near the epicenter were controlled by solar and geomagnetic activity that were unrelated to the earthquake. In an investigation of these very different results, we examine TEC time series of long duration from GPS stations near and far from the epicenter of the Hector Mine earthquake, and long before and long after the earthquake. While we can reproduce the essential time series results of Pulinets et al., we find that the signal they identify as anomalous is not actually anomalous. Instead, it is just part of normal global-scale TEC variation. We conclude that the TEC anomaly reported by Pulinets et al. is unrelated to the Hector Mine earthquake.

California↗

USGS2008

Lightning‐driven electric fields measured in the lower ionosphere: Implications for transient luminous events

Transient luminous events above thunderstorms such as sprites, halos, and elves require large electric fields in the lower ionosphere. Yet very few in situ measurements in this region have been successfully accomplished, since it is typically too low in altitude for rockets and satellites and too high for balloons. In this article, we present some rare examples of lightning‐driven electric field changes obtained at 75–130 km altitude during a sounding rocket flight from Wallops Island, Virginia, in 1995. We summarize these electric field changes and present a few detailed case studies. Our measurements are compared directly to a 2D numerical model of lightning‐driven electromagnetic fields in the middle and upper atmosphere. We find that the in situ electric field changes are smaller than predicted by the model, and the amplitudes of these fields are insufficient for elve production when extrapolated to a 100 kA peak current stroke. This disagreement could be due to lightning‐induced ionospheric conductivity enhancement, or it might be evidence of flaws in the electromagnetic pulse mechanism for elves.

Journal of Geophysical Research A: Space Physics↗