Jeremy Giovando | USGS Science

USGS2025

Hydrologic mechanisms for 2022 Yellowstone River flood and comparisons to recent historic floods

In June 2022, a historic flood event occurred in the headwaters of the Yellowstone River Basin. The flood resulted in millions of dollars in damages and substantial interruptions to Yellowstone National Park. The 2022 flood event was substantially higher in magnitude than other high-peak flow events over the last 30 years. The high discharge was primarily due to the combination of hydrologic mechanisms initiated by rain-on-snow, including a high-elevation snowpack that peaked later than average. However, the contributions of each hydrologic driver, rain and snow, have not been quantified and could be important for understanding future flood events in the region. The contribution of snowmelt to the total terrestrial water input (TWI) varied throughout the area, yet was concentrated in the headwaters of the Yellowstone, Stillwater, and Boulder rivers, along with the headwaters of Rock Creek in Wyoming and Montana. The primary atmospheric contributions to the TWI during the 2022 event were precipitation from moisture transported from the Pacific Ocean that converged over the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) and snowmelt from residual snowpack in the northeast part of Yellowstone National Park.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2024

Post-wildfire curve number estimates for the southern Rocky Mountains in Colorado, USA

The curve number method first developed by the US Department of Agriculture Soil Conservation Service (now the Natural Resources Conservation Service) is often used for post-wildfire runoff assessments. These assessments are critical for land and emergency managers making decisions on life and property risks following a wildfire event. Three approaches (i.e., historical event observations, linear regression model, and regression tree model) were used to help estimate a post-wildfire curve number from watershed and wildfire parameters. For the first method, we used runoff events from 102 burned watersheds in Colorado, southern Wyoming, northern New Mexico, and eastern Utah to quantify changes in curve number values from pre- to post-wildfire conditions. The curve number changes from the measured runoff events vary substantially between positive and negative values. The measured curve number changes were then associated with watershed characteristics (e.g., slope, elevation, northness, and eastness) and land cover type to develop prediction models that provide estimates of post-wildfire curve number changes. Finally, we used a regression tree method to demonstrate that accurate predications can be developed using the measured curve number changes from our study domain. These models can be used for future post-wildfire assessments within the region.

Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗