USGS ScienceSearch

Geology topics

Jennifer M. Mullinax

Publications and source records attributed to Jennifer M. Mullinax.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

Expanding national-scale wildlife disease surveillance systems with research networks

Efficient learning about disease dynamics in free-ranging wildlife systems can benefit from active surveillance that is standardized across different ecological contexts. For example, active surveillance that targets specific individuals and populations with standardized sampling across ecological contexts (landscape-scale targeted surveillance) is important for developing a mechanistic understanding of disease emergence, which is the foundation for improving risk assessment of zoonotic or wildlife-livestock disease outbreaks and predicting hotspots of disease emergence. However, landscape-scale targeted surveillance systems are rare and challenging to implement. Increasing experience and infrastructure for landscape-scale targeted surveillance will improve readiness for rapid deployment of this type of surveillance in response to new disease emergence events. Here, we describe our experience developing and rapidly deploying a landscape-scale targeted surveillance system for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in two free-ranging deer species across their ranges in the United States. Our surveillance system was designed to collect data across individual, population, and landscape scales for future analyses aimed at understanding mechanisms and risk factors of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, evolution, and persistence. Our approach leveraged partnerships between state and federal public service sectors and academic researchers in a landscape-scale targeted surveillance research network. Methods describe our approach to developing the surveillance network and sampling design. Results report challenges with implementing our intended sampling design, specifically how the design was adapted as different challenges arose and summarize the sampling design that has been implemented thus far. In the discussion, we describe strategies that were important for the successful deployment of landscape-scale targeted surveillance, development and operation of the research network, construction of similar networks in the future, and analytical approaches for the data based on the sampling design.

Ecology and Evolution

Avian influenza infection and antibodies not identified in eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) sampled on the Delmarva Peninsula

Although highly pathogenic avian influenza presents a notable threat to domestic turkeys ( Meleagris gallopavo domesticus ), there have been minimal infections identified in wild turkeys ( Meleagris gallopavo ) across the United States. Indeed, recent infections in wild turkeys have either been linked back to or suspected to be the result of spillback from nearby infected domestic turkeys. This study presents avian influenza sampling data for Eastern wild turkeys ( Meleagris gallopavo silvestris ) across the Maryland portion of the Delmarva Peninsula, in the winter of 2023–2024, with an objective of identifying any circulating influenza A viruses (IAVs), as well as determining the extent of previous exposure to IAVs in this population. We collected swab samples from 36 female wild turkeys. No IAV viral RNA was detected in any sample, based on real-time reverse transcriptase PCR. We collected sera from 31 of the 36 sampled individuals, all of which had biomimetic enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (bELISA) S/N values >0.7 (range: 0.79–1.29) indicating a lack of antibodies to IAVs. Although our sample size is limited, these results indicate no evidence of current or recent previous IAV infection in sampled birds.

Maryland

A practical decision tool for marine bird mortality assessments

Given the rise in anthropogenic, environmental, and disease events contributing to marine bird mortality, there is a critical need to improve the rigor of mortality assessments. Deficits in data collection and mortality estimation can hinder a manager’s ability to document event scales and inform population level impacts. Therefore, to inform decisions required during activities such as conservation status assessments or harvest management, organizations may choose to incorporate mortality assessments into response plans. Resources, capacity, and assets to assess mortality vary across jurisdictions (federal, state, Indigenous, local, etc.), and clear guidance to support mortality assessments is often unavailable or not clearly addressed. Here, we present a decision support tool to help managers identify and evaluate survey options to assess bird mortality in a diverse array of scenarios. The objective of the decision tool is to improve data collection and availability which will increase the ability to robustly estimate mortality, given situation-specific attributes and constraints. This decision tool is designed to guide the response when a mortality event is initially encountered and offers suggestions for assessment and reporting procedures in the absence of other guidance or to complement existing protocols. The decision tool is also meant to inform decision making for response determination and resource allocation. The tool facilitates examination of options for further assessment and monitoring which users determine by examining questions pertaining to species prioritization, mortality spatial extent, and the potential magnitude of impacts on affected species. Finally, identification of appropriate survey methods, that address imperfect detection when a complete census is not possible, are determined by exploring location, spatial and temporal extent, and the type of species affected. Ultimately, this tool aims to facilitate and improve the standardization of mortality assessments, equipping managers with a practical resource to navigate the decision-making process for marine bird mortality estimation.

EcoEvoRxiv

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 in double-crested cormorants (Nannopterum auritum) of the Chesapeake Bay, USA

Double-crested Cormorants ( Nannopterum auritum ) have historically exhibited low levels of infection and antibodies to avian influenza virus (AIV). The recent global expansion of clade 2.3.4.4b A/goose/Guangdong/1/1996 highly pathogenic (HP) avian influenza virus H5N1 (HPAI H5N1) has resulted in large-scale mortalities across diverse waterbird taxa including cormorants. We sampled 32 and 29 Double-crested Cormorants breeding in the Chesapeake Bay, US, during the summers of 2023 and 2024, respectively, to assess HPAI H5N1 infection and AIV antibodies. Although no mortality was observed in the area, one bird sampled in 2023 was infected with HPAI H5N1. Additionally, 21/31 individuals in 2023 and 10/25 individuals in 2024 for which sera were collected had AIV antibodies. Based on additional testing using hemagglutination inhibition, virus neutralization, and an enzyme-linked lectin assay, 94 and 100% (2023 and 2024, respectively) of the seropositive birds tested positive for antibodies to both H5 and N1, suggesting previous infection with HPAI H5N1. These results are consistent with survival and limited clinical effects related to HPAI H5N1 infections. Furthermore, these results suggest that population immunity to HPAI H5N1 within the Chesapeake Bay might reduce future infections and potential population impacts should HP H5N1 remain on the landscape, though immunity may be waning across time. Because results are based on a single population, additional testing for both infection and antibodies as well as continued monitoring could enhance understanding of antibody persistence.

Maryland, Virginia

A systematic review of laboratory investigations into the pathogenesis of avian influenza viruses in wild avifauna of North America

The lack of consolidated information regarding the response of wild bird species to infection with avian influenza virus (AIV) is a challenge to both conservation managers and researchers alike, with related sectors also impacted, such as public health and commercial poultry. Using two independent searches, we reviewed published literature for studies describing wild bird species experimentally infected with avian influenza to assess host species’ relative susceptibility to AIVs. Additionally, we summarize broad-scale parameters for elements such as shedding duration and minimum infectious dose that can be used in transmission modelling efforts. Our synthesis shows that waterfowl (i.e. Anatidae) compose the vast majority of published AIV pathobiology studies, whereas gulls and passerines are less represented in research despite evidence that they also are susceptible and contribute to highly pathogenic avian influenza disease dynamics. This study represents the first comprehensive effort to compile available literature regarding the pathobiology of AIVs in all wild birds in over a decade. This database can now serve as a tool to all researchers, providing generalized estimates of pathobiology parameters for a variety of wild avian families and an opportunity to critically examine and assess what is known and identify where further insight is needed.

Proceeding of the Royal Society B

Using an adaptive modeling framework to identify avian influenza spillover risk at the wild-domestic interface

The wild to domestic bird interface is an important nexus for emergence and transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses. Although the recent incursion of HPAI H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b into North America calls for emergency response and planning given the unprecedented scale, readily available data-driven models are lacking. Here, we provide high resolution spatial and temporal transmission risk models for the contiguous United States. Considering virus host ecology, we included weekly species-level wild waterfowl (Anatidae) abundance and endemic low pathogenic avian influenza virus prevalence metrics in combination with number of poultry farms per commodity type and relative biosecurity risks at two spatial scales: 3 km and county-level. Spillover risk varied across the annual cycle of waterfowl migration and some locations exhibited persistent risk throughout the year given higher poultry production. Validation using wild bird introduction events identified by phylogenetic analysis from 2022 to 2023 HPAI poultry outbreaks indicate strong model performance. The modular nature of our approach lends itself to building upon updated datasets under evolving conditions, testing hypothetical scenarios, or customizing results with proprietary data. This research demonstrates an adaptive approach for developing models to inform preparedness and response as novel outbreaks occur, viruses evolve, and additional data become available.

contiguous United States

Reframing wildlife disease management problems with decision analysis

Contemporary wildlife disease management is complex because managers need to respond to a wide range of stakeholders, multiple uncertainties, and difficult trade-offs that characterize the interconnected challenges of today. Despite general acknowledgment of these complexities, managing wildlife disease tends to be framed as a scientific problem, in which the major challenge is lack of knowledge. The complex and multifactorial process of decision-making is collapsed into a scientific endeavor to reduce uncertainty. As a result, contemporary decision-making may be oversimplified, rely on simple heuristics, and fail to account for the broader legal, social, and economic context in which the decisions are made. Concurrently, scientific research on wildlife disease may be distant from this decision context, resulting in information that may not be directly relevant to the pertinent management questions. We propose reframing wildlife disease management challenges as decision problems and addressing them with decision analytical tools to divide the complex problems into more cognitively manageable elements. In particular, structured decision-making has the potential to improve the quality, rigor, and transparency of decisions about wildlife disease in a variety of systems. Examples of management of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, white-nose syndrome, avian influenza, and chytridiomycosis illustrate the most common impediments to decision-making, including competing objectives, risks, prediction uncertainty, and limited resources.

Conservation Biology

No long-term effect of black bear removal on elk calf recruitment in the southern Appalachians

In 2001 and 2002, 52 elk ( Cervus canadensis ; 21 males, 31 females), originally obtained from Elk Island National Park, Alberta, Canada, were transported and released into Cataloochee Valley in the northeastern portion of Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM, Park), North Carolina, USA. The annual population growth rate ( λ ) was negative (0.996, 95% CI = 0.945–1.047) and predation by black bears ( Ursus americanus ) on elk calves was identified as an important determinant of population growth. From 2006 to 2008, 49 bears from the primary elk calving area (i.e., Cataloochee Valley) were trapped and translocated about 70 km to the southwestern portion of the Park just prior to elk calving. Per capita recruitment (i.e., the number of calves produced per adult female that survive to 1 year of age) increased from 0.306 prior to bear translocation (2001–2005) to 0.544 during years when bears were translocated (2006–2008) and λ increased to 1.118 (95% CI = 1.096–1.140). Our objective was to determine whether per capita calf recruitment rates after bear removal (2009–2019) at Cataloochee were similar to the higher rates estimated during bear removal (i.e., long-term response) or if they returned to rates before bear removal (i.e., short-term response), and how those rates compared with recruitment from portions of our study area where bears were not relocated. We documented 419 potential elk calving events and monitored 129 yearling and adult elk from 2001 to 2019. Known-fate models based on radio-telemetry and observational data supported calf recruitment returning to pre-2006 levels at Cataloochee (short-term response); recruitment of Cataloochee elk before and after bear relocation was lower (0.184) than during bear relocation (0.492). Recruitment rates of elk outside the removal area during the bear relocation period (0.478) were similar to before and after rates (0.420). In the Cataloochee Valley, cause-specific annual calf mortality rates due to predation by bears were 0.319 before, 0.120 during, and 0.306 after bear relocation. In contrast, the cause-specific annual mortality rate of calves in areas where bears were not relocated was 0.033 after the bear relocation period, with no bear predation on calves before or during bear relocation. The mean annual population growth rate for all monitored elk was 1.062 (95% CI = 0.979–1.140) after bear relocation based on the recruitment and survival data. Even though the effects of bear removal were temporary, the relocations were effective in achieving a short-term increase in elk recruitment, which was important for the reintroduction program given that the elk population was small and vulnerable to extirpation.

North Carolina

Waterfowl show spatiotemporal trends in influenza A H5 and H7 infections but limited taxonomic variation

Influenza A viruses in wild birds pose threats to the poultry industry, wild birds, and human health under certain conditions. Of particular importance are wild waterfowl, which are the primary reservoir of low pathogenicity influenza viruses that ultimately cause high pathogenicity outbreaks in poultry farms. Despite much work on the drivers of influenza A virus prevalence, the underlying viral subtype dynamics are still mostly unexplored. Nevertheless, understanding these dynamics, particularly for the agriculturally significant H5 and H7 subtypes, is important for mitigating the risk of outbreaks in domestic poultry farms. Here, using an expansive surveillance database, we take a large-scale look at the spatial, temporal, and taxonomic drivers in the prevalence of these two subtypes among influenza A positive wild waterfowl. We document spatiotemporal trends that are consistent with past work, particularly an uptick in H5 viruses in late autumn and H7 viruses in spring. Interestingly, despite large species differences in temporal trends in overall influenza A virus prevalence, we document only modest differences in the relative abundance of these two subtypes and little, if any, temporal differences among species. As such, it appears that differences in species' phenology, physiology, and behaviors that influence overall susceptibility to influenza A viruses play a much lesser role in relative susceptibility to different subtypes. Instead, species likely freely pass viruses among each other regardless of subtype. Importantly, despite the similarities among species documented here, individual species still may play important roles in moving viruses across large geographic areas or sustaining local outbreaks through their different migratory behaviors.

Ecological Applications

A multi-level modeling approach to guide management of female feral hogs in Great Smoky Mountains National Park

We trapped, anesthetized, and fit 16 female feral swine ( Sus scrofa ) with Global Positioning System (GPS) collars in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM) to develop predictive summer and winter models for more effective population control efforts. Given the highly diverse habitat and topography in GRSM and the spatial extent of our dataset, we employed Step Selection Function (SSF) to evaluate resource selection at the 3 rd -order level and Resource Selection Function (RSF) models at the 2 nd -order level for both summer and winter seasons. The summer SSF and RSF models suggested relatively similar levels of selection, whereas the winter models differed by method. We created a straightforward consensus model to better visualize the agreement and constraints of each set of models. In summer, feral swine used lower slopes regardless of elevation, especially those closer to human-dominated spaces such as along paved and gravel roadways. In winter, feral swine maintained preference for lower slopes but preferred oak-dominated forest areas and selection for human development was less than in summer. Wildlife managers can use these models to better focus feral swine surveillance and management in GRSM. Managers can identify areas of high use by season and plan control activities that are both accessible and highly efficient. The combination and consensus framework presented here can be applied to other systems where species’ habitat selection may result in incongruous results across different levels of selection or seasons of interest.

Tennessee

The changing dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1: Next steps for management & science in North America

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 was introduced in North America in late 2021 through trans-Atlantic pathways via migratory birds. These introductions have resulted in an unprecedented epizootic, a widespread disease event in animals, heavily affecting poultry, wild birds, and recently mammals. The North American incursions occurred during the largest epidemic season (2021–2022) in Europe where H5N1 may now be endemic (i.e., continuously present). The continuing outbreak includes expansion into Mexico, Central and South America beginning in late 2022. Here, we provide an overview of the Eurasian origin H5N1 introduction to the Americas, including a significant shift in virus dynamics and severe disease in wild birds. Then, to investigate the global changes in confirmed detections in wild birds and poultry across time and geographic regions, we analyzed FAO's EMPRES-i + database. To examine the 2021 introduction and spread in North American wild birds and poultry, we collated publicly available data across USA and Canadian federal sources. Based on our assessment, the unique magnitude of the North American H5N1 spread indicates the need for effective decision framing to prioritize management needs and scientific inquiry, particularly for species at risk and interface areas for wildlife, poultry, and humans. We illustrate the rapidly occurring and likely increasing detrimental effects that this One Health issue has on wildlife, agriculture, and potentially human health, and we offer a reframing of HPAIV disease response towards a decision analytical context to guide scientific prioritization as a potentially valuable change in focus.

Biological Conservation

Spatiotemporal changes in influenza A virus prevalence among wild waterfowl inhabiting the continental United States throughout the annual cycle

Avian influenza viruses can pose serious risks to agricultural production, human health, and wildlife. An understanding of viruses in wild reservoir species across time and space is important to informing surveillance programs, risk models, and potential population impacts for vulnerable species. Although it is recognized that influenza A virus prevalence peaks in reservoir waterfowl in late summer through autumn, temporal and spatial variation across species has not been fully characterized. We combined two large influenza databases for North America and applied spatiotemporal models to explore patterns in prevalence throughout the annual cycle and across the continental United States for 30 waterfowl species. Peaks in prevalence in late summer through autumn were pronounced for dabbling ducks in the genera Anas and Spatula , but not Mareca . Spatially, areas of high prevalence appeared to be related to regional duck density, with highest predicted prevalence found across the upper Midwest during early fall, though further study is needed. We documented elevated prevalence in late winter and early spring, particularly in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. Our results suggest that spatiotemporal variation in prevalence outside autumn staging areas may also represent a dynamic parameter to be considered in IAV ecology and associated risks.

Scientific Reports

A comparison of methods for the long-term harness-based attachment of radio-transmitters to juvenile Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica)

Background While the period from fledging through first breeding for waterbird species such as terns (e.g., genus Sterna, Sternula) is of great interest to researchers and conservationists, this period remains understudied due in large part to the difficulty of marking growing juveniles with radio transmitters that remain attached for extended periods. Methods In an effort to facilitate such research, we examined the impact of various combinations of harness types (backpack, leg-loop, and 3D-printed harnesses), harness materials (Automotive ribbon, Elastic cord, and PFTE ribbon), and transmitter types (center-weighted and rear-weighted) on a surrogate for juvenile terns, 28-day-old Japanese quail ( Coturnix japonica; selected due to similarities in adult mass and downy feathering of juveniles ), in a 30-day experiment. We monitored for abrasion at points of contact and tag gap issues via daily exams while also recording mass and wing cord as indices of growth. This study was designed to serve as an initial examination of the impacts of marking on the growth and development of young birds and does not account for any impacts of tags on movement or behavior. Results While we found that treatment (the specific combination of the transmitter type, harness type, and harness material) had no impact on bird growth relative to unmarked control birds ( P ≥ 0.05), we did observe differences in abrasion and tag gap between treatments ( P ≤ 0.05). Our results suggest that leg-loop harnesses constructed from elastic cord and backpack harnesses from PFTE ribbon are suitable options for long-term attachment to growing juveniles. Conversely, we found that automotive ribbon led to extensive abrasion with these small-bodied birds, and that elastic cord induced blisters when used to make a backpack harness. Conclusions While these results indicate that long-term tagging of juvenile birds is possible with limited impacts on growth, this work does not preclude the need for small-scale studies with individual species. Instead, we hope this provides an informed starting point for further exploration of this topic.

Animal Biotelemetry

The spatial-temporal relationship of blue-winged teal to domestic poultry: Movement state modeling of a highly mobile avian influenza host

1. Migratory waterfowl facilitate long distance dispersal of zoonotic pathogens and are increasingly recognized as contributing to the geographic spread of avian influenza viruses (AIV). AIV are globally distributed and have the potential to produce highly contagious poultry disease, economically impact both large-scale and backyard poultry producers, and raise the specter of epidemics and pandemics in human populations. 2. Because migratory waterfowl behavior varies across multiple spatial and temporal scales, the timing and distribution of wild bird AIV introductions to poultry are also heterogeneous in time and space. To help reduce economic impacts to the poultry industry and enable poultry producers to better anticipate when and where poultry outbreaks may occur, it is critically important to consider the movement ecology of the waterfowl species transporting and transmitting AIV. 3. We used telemetry for a geographically widespread and common AIV host, blue-winged teal ( Spatula discors ; BWTE), to model reservoir host movement states with respect to backyard and commercial poultry facilities in the United States. Our modeling framework enabled us to estimate wild bird proximity to poultry facilities while concurrently assessing the influence of poultry facilities on BWTE movement state transition. Our primary objective was to estimate the likelihood of duck and poultry overlap by estimating when and where BWTE were geographically closest to poultry. 4. Synthesis and applications . Migratory waterfowl facilitate dispersal of the avian influenza viruses that cause highly contagious poultry disease. Movement analysis of blue-winged teal indicates that spatio-temporal overlap between wild birds and poultry facilities varies by season, the poultry type produced (e.g., turkey, chicken), and if the facility is a commercial or backyard operation. These findings are broadly applicable to disease ecology research and can be applied by poultry producers to improve bio-security, enhance poultry management, and prioritize disease surveillance efforts.

Journal of Applied Ecology

Assessing nest attentiveness of Common Terns via video cameras and temperature loggers

While nest attentiveness plays a critical role in the reproductive success of avian species, little nest attentiveness data with high temporal resolution is available for many species. However, improvements in both video monitoring and temperature logging devices present an opportunity to improve our understanding of this aspect of avian behavior. To investigate nest attentiveness behaviors and evaluate the ability of these technologies to record the needed data we monitored 13 nests across two Common Tern (Sterna hirundo) breeding colonies with a paired video camera - temperature logger approach, while monitoring 63 additional nests with temperature loggers alone. We examined data respective to four times of day: Morning (civil dawn-11:59), Peak (12:00-16:00), Cooling (16:01-civil dusk), and Night (civil dusk-civil dawn). Our results show that while successful nests had mostly short duration off-bouts and maintained consistent nest attentiveness throughout the day, failed nests had dramatic reductions in nest attentiveness during the Cooling and Night periods (p < 0.05) with one colony experiencing repeated nocturnal abandonment due to predation pressure from a Great Horned Owl (Bubo virginianus). Incubation appeared to ameliorate ambient temperatures during Night, as nests were significantly warmer during Night when birds were on versus off the nest (p < 0.05). Meanwhile, off bouts during the Peak period occurred during higher ambient temperatures, perhaps due to adults leaving the nest during the hottest periods to perform belly soaking. Unfortunately, temperature logger data alone had limited ability to predict nest attentiveness status, with results highly dependent on time of day and bout duration. While our methods did not affect hatching success (p > 0.05) video-monitored nests did have significantly lower clutch sizes (p < 0.05). Despite the high-quality data recorded in this study, the logistical and potential biological complications reported suggest that careful planning is needed before these devices can be utilized.

Avian Research

Waterfowl occurrence and residence time as indicators of H5 and H7 avian influenza in North American Poultry

Avian influenza (AI) affects wild aquatic birds and poses hazards to human health, food security, and wildlife conservation globally. Accordingly, there is a recognized need for new methods and tools to help quantify the dynamic interaction between wild bird hosts and commercial poultry. Using satellite-marked waterfowl, we applied Bayesian joint hierarchical modeling to concurrently model species distributions, residency times, migration timing, and disease occurrence probability under an integrated animal movement and disease distribution modeling framework. Our results indicate that migratory waterfowl are positively related to AI occurrence over North America such that as waterfowl occurrence probability or residence time increase at a given location, so too does the chance of a commercial poultry AI outbreak. Analyses also suggest that AI occurrence probability is greatest during our observed waterfowl northward migration, and less during the southward migration. Methodologically, we found that when modeling disparate facets of disease systems at the wildlife-agriculture interface, it is essential that multiscale spatial patterns be addressed to avoid mistakenly inferring a disease process or disease-environment relationship from a pattern evaluated at the improper spatial scale. The study offers important insights into migratory waterfowl ecology and AI disease dynamics that aid in better preparing for future outbreaks.

Scientific Reports

Assessing beach and island habitat loss in the Chesapeake Bay and Delmarva coastal bay region, USA, through processing of Landsat TM and OLI imagery: A case study

Beaches and islands provide economic value to humans and critical habitat for breeding and foraging wildlife. These ecosystems, however, are being severely impacted by global climate change and sea level rise through increased erosion and frequency of inundation. The case study presented here aimed to document island loss in the Chesapeake Bay and Delmarva coastal bay region of the United States using image processing techniques within a GIS from 1986 to 2016. Satellite imagery from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Operational Land Imager (OLI) sensors were processed within ArcMap 10.5 to determine spatial and temporal trends in island and beach habitat. Calculation of unweighted Cohen’s Kappa showed that classified scenes were, on average, within the range of moderate agreement between the classified Landsat scenes and the validation imagery within Google Earth (0.539). Recommendations regarding existing beach habitat management and future supplementation were created based on these results. From 1986 to 2016, island area declined by over 1,200 hectares (ha) with agriculture/open field (all open vegetated spaces) declining by nearly 82% and beach, surprisingly, increasing nearly 2%. This study was the first to document Chesapeake Bay region-wide island loss beyond the mid-2000s. The accuracy of this study was limited slightly by the 30 m spatial resolution of the imagery used. This technique may be best suited for documenting trends on large islands and along the mainland coastline.

Maryland, Virginia