Geology topics

Jennifer F. Moore

Publications and source records attributed to Jennifer F. Moore.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

The functional effects of African lions on co-occurring carnivores differ across species pairs and with changes in resource availability and lion abundance

Apex carnivores are known to regulate ecosystem structure and function, including via interactions with syntopic, competitively inferior carnivores. These effects may be dependent on relative carnivore density and resource availability or productivity. We investigated the functional effect of African lions as an apex carnivore on the presence of co-occurring large carnivore species across two adjoining National Parks that contrast in relative densities of carnivores and prey. We employed two-species occupancy models from track data to test statistical interactions between lions and the other syntopic large carnivore species, while accounting for each species’ habitat selection. We further investigated the influence of anthropogenic and natural variables on these co-occurrence dynamics. Our models revealed that the occurrence of each carnivore species was best predicted by access to their own key resources. We also found significant statistical interactions between lions and cheetahs, lions and leopards, and lions and spotted hyenas in resource-rich landscapes. Finally, we found limited support for the competition exclusion hypothesis between most species, with the exception of lion-African wild dog co-occurrence patterns. Species’ co-occurrence dynamics were all influenced by resource availability, with lion-leopard and lion-cheetah co-occurrence decreasing strongly with increasing resource availability. Most species co-occurrence declined with increasing occurrence of lions. The patterns revealed by this study improves predictions of how changes in resource availability and carnivore occurrence could impact carnivore community dynamics and the functional role of apex carnivores.

Kruger National Park, Limpopo National Park↗

USGS2025

Quantifying the relative importance of survival threats to a long-lived reptile using expert elicitation

Long-term survival of a conservation-reliant species requires understanding the impact of threats on population growth rate and the management actions that can help mitigate these threats. We used a threat assessment with expert-elicited estimates to determine the relative effect of each stage-specific threat on the population growth rate of the wood turtle Glyptemys insculpta . In addition, we offered potential management actions that could mitigate these threats and examined the relative cost and benefit of each. The experts responded that predators had the largest effect on hatchling and juvenile survival and that road mortality had the largest effect on adult survival. The population growth rate of the simulated turtle population increased the most when predators were removed from the system, though the population trajectory remained negative. Finally, we found that predator control had the lowest cost:benefit ratio of the proposed management actions. The process used in this analysis of expert elicitation combined with modeling that accounts for uncertainty proved to be a useful technique that is less expensive and labor intensive than empirical studies and quicker to implement, although it relies on sufficient empirical studies to inform expert responses. This process could be replicated for other species to inform species status assessments.

Endangered Species Research↗

USGS2022

Evaluating the effect of expert elicitation techniques on population status assessment in the face of large uncertainty

Population projection models are important tools for conservation and management. They are often used for population status assessments, for threat analyses, and to predict the consequences of conservation actions. Although conservation decisions should be informed by science, critical decisions are often made with very little information to support decision-making. Conversely, postponing decisions until better information is available may reduce the benefit of a conservation decision. When empirical data are limited or lacking, expert elicitation can be used to supplement existing data and inform model parameter estimates. The use of rigorous techniques for expert elicitation that account for uncertainty can improve the quality of the expert elicited values and therefore the accuracy of the projection models. One recurring challenge for summarizing expert elicited values is how to aggregate them. Here, we illustrate a process for population status assessment using a combination of expert elicitation and data from the ecological literature. We discuss the importance of considering various aggregation techniques, and illustrate this process using matrix population models for the wood turtle ( Glyptemys insculpta ) to assist U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service decision-makers with their Species Status Assessment. We compare estimates of population growth using data from the ecological literature and four alternative aggregation techniques for the expert-elicited values. The estimate of population growth rate based on estimates from the literature (λ mean = 0.952, 95% CI: 0.87–1.01) could not be used to unequivocally reject the hypotheses of a rapidly declining population nor the hypothesis of a stable, or even slightly growing population, whereas our results for the expert-elicited estimates supported the hypothesis that the wood turtle population will decline over time. Our results showed that the aggregation techniques used had an impact on model estimates, suggesting that the choice of techniques should be carefully considered. We discuss the benefits and limitations associated with each method and their relevance to the population status assessment. We note a difference in the temporal scope or inference between the literature-based estimates that provided insights about historical changes, whereas the expert-based estimates were forward looking. Therefore, conducting an expert-elicitation in addition to using parameter estimates from the literature improved our understanding of our species of interest.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2022

Range-wide population projections for Northern Red-Bellied Cooters (Pseudemys rubriventris)

Northern Red-Bellied Cooters ( Pseudemys rubriventris ) have a disjunct distribution with a relictual population in southeastern Massachusetts and a larger range across the mid-Atlantic United States. The relictual population is currently listed with protections under the U.S. Endangered Species Act but the status of the population in the remainder of the species' range has not been assessed, and there is concern that it may be at risk of extinction without protection. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service requires scientific information of the species' status to inform conservation decisions. There is little empirical information available from P. rubriventris populations and, furthermore, the majority of what exists comes from the disjunct northern subpopulation. To fill data gaps in the species' life history and reduce geographic bias, we supplement available data from P. rubriventris with demographic rate estimates from other Pseudemys species to parameterize an age-structured population projection model. Our estimate of mean population growth rate was 0.987 (0.92–1.04), indicating that P. rubriventris populations may be in decline. However, there was considerable uncertainty in our results, with 35% of projections resulting in stable or increasing populations. Additional uncertainty about parameter values, geographic variation, and current threats limit the assessment. We discuss the merits and limitations of our population projection modeling (PPM) approach where other analytical methods are precluded by lack of available data.

Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, North Carolin↗

USGS2021

Optimal allocation of law enforcement patrol effort to mitigate poaching activities

Poaching is a global problem causing the decline of species worldwide. Optimizing the efficiency of ranger patrols to deter poaching activity at the lowest possible cost is crucial for protecting species with limited resources. We applied decision analysis and spatial optimization algorithms to allocate efforts of ranger patrols throughout a national park. Our objective was to mitigate poaching activity at or below management risk targets for the lowest monetary cost. We examined this trade‐off by constructing a Pareto efficiency frontier using integer linear programming. We used data from a ranger‐based monitoring program in Nyungwe National Park, Rwanda. Our measure of poaching risk is based on dynamic occupancy models that account for imperfect detection of poaching activities. We found that in order to achieve a 5% reduction in poaching risk, 622 ranger patrol events (each corresponding to patrolling 1‐km 2 sites) were needed within a year at a cost of US$49,760. In order to attain a 60% reduction in poaching risk, 15,560 patrol events were needed at a cost of US \$ 1,244,800. We evaluated the trade‐off between patrol cost and poaching risk based on our model by constructing a Pareto efficiency frontier and park managers found the solution for a 50% risk reduction to be a practical trade‐off based on funding constraints (comparable to recent years) and the diminishing returns between risk mitigation and cost. This expected reduction in risk required 8,558 patrol events per year at a cost of US \$ 684,640. Our results suggest that optimal solutions could increase efficiency compared to the actual effort allocations from 2006 to 2016 in Nyungwe National Park (e.g., risk reductions of ~30% under recent budgets compared to ~50% reduction in risk under the optimal strategy). The modeling framework in this study took into account imperfect detection of poaching risk as well as the directional and conditional nature of ranger patrol events given the spatial adjacency relationships of neighboring sites and access points. Our analyses can help to improve the efficiency of ranger patrols, and the modeling framework can be broadly applied to other spatial conservation planning problems with conditional, multilevel, site selection.

Nyungwe National Park↗

USGS2021

What is the effect of poaching activity on wildlife species?

Poaching is a pervasive threat to wildlife, yet quantifying the direct effect of poaching on wildlife is rarely possible because both wildlife and threat data are infrequently collected concurrently. In this study, we used poaching data collected through the Management Information System (MIST) and wildlife camera trap data collected by the Tropical Ecology Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) network from 2014 to 2017 in Volcanoes National Park, Rwanda. We implemented co-occurrence multi-season occupancy models that accounted for imperfect detection to investigate the effect of poaching on initial occupancy, colonization, and extinction of 5 mammal species. Specifically, we focused on 2 species of conservation concern (mountain gorilla ( Gorilla beringei beringei ) and golden money ( Cercopithecus mitis kandti )), and 3 species targeted by poachers (black-fronted duiker ( Cephalophus nigrifrons ), bushbuck ( Tragelaphus scriptus ), and African buffalo ( Syncerus caffer )). We found that the probability of local extinction was highest in sites with poaching activity for golden monkey and bushbuck. In addition, the probability of initial occupancy for golden monkey was highest in sites without poaching activity. We only found weak evidence of effects of poaching on parameters governing the occupancy dynamics of the other species. All species showed evidence of poaching presence affecting the probability of detection of the wildlife species. This is the first study to our knowledge to combine direct threat observations from ranger-based monitoring data with camera trap wildlife observations to quantify the effect of poaching on wildlife. Given the widespread collection of ranger-based monitoring and camera trap data, our approach is broadly applicable to numerous protected areas and has the potential to significantly improve conservation management. Specifically, the relationship between poaching activity and wildlife population dynamics (this paper) can be combined with information on the relationship between ranger patrols and poaching activity (Moore et al. 2017) to develop models useful for making wise decisions about ranger patrol deployment.

Volcanoes National Park↗

USGS2019

Factors affecting species richness and distribution spatially and temporally within a protected area using multi-season occupancy models

Exploring trends in species richness and the distribution of individual species over time as well as the factors affecting these trends informs conservation priorities in protecting species and ecosystems as a whole. We used data from 41 park-wide line transect surveys in 2009 and 2014 and multi-season occupancy models with multi-species data to explore trends in species richness and distribution of individual species and factors affecting these trends in Nyungwe National Park (NNP), Rwanda. Mammalian species richness and the distributional range of 5 of the 7 species increased between 2009 and 2014 in NNP. The probability of colonization of a species into a new area in 2014, where it was not present in 2009, was highest in sites with a lower probability of poaching activity, close to tourist trails, and at lower elevations. The probability of colonization with no poaching activity was about 50% but dropped to about 10% with a 100% chance of poaching activity. Duiker species had the largest increase in distribution during the study, while there was a decrease in the distribution of the eastern chimpanzee and blue monkey. Our results suggest that increased patrols should be implemented in areas of the park with low species richness and areas with a low probability of occurrence for species of conservation concern to combat poaching activity and thus increase the probability of a species moving into a new area. Our use of a single multi-season model for multiple species explicitly accounts for imperfect detection and species-specific identities, while allowing for inferences to be made about rarely detected species by sharing covariates with common species. These results can be used to improve conservation planning in NNP for species management and ranger patrol protocols and our modelling framework is broadly applicable to any protected area with presence/absence species field data.

Nyungwe Forest National Park↗

USGS2017

Territory occupancy and breeding success of Peregrine Falcons Falco peregrinus at various stages of population recovery

Organochlorine pesticides disrupted reproduction and killed many raptorial birds, and contributed to population declines during the 1940s to 1970s. We sought to discern whether and to what extent territory occupancy and breeding success changed from the pesticide era to recent years in a resident population of Peregrine Falcons Falco peregrinus in southern Scotland using long-term (1964–2015) field data and multi-state, multi-season occupancy models. Peregrine territories that were occupied with successful reproduction in one year were much more likely to be occupied and experience reproductive success in the following year, compared with those that were unoccupied or occupied by unsuccessful breeders in the previous year. Probability of territory occupancy differed between territories in the eastern and western parts of the study area, and varied over time. The probability of occupancy of territories that were unoccupied and those that were occupied with successful reproduction during the previous breeding season generally increased over time, whereas the probability of occupancy of territories that were occupied after failed reproduction decreased. The probability of reproductive success (conditional on occupancy) in territories that were occupied during the previous breeding season increased over time. Specifically, for territories that had been successful in the previous year, the probability of occupancy as well as reproductive success increased steadily over time; these probabilities were substantially higher in recent years than earlier, when the population was still exposed to direct or residual effects of organochlorine pesticides. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that progressive reduction, followed by a complete ban, in the use of organochlorine pesticides improved reproductive success of Peregrines in southern Scotland. Differences in the temporal pattern of probability of reproductive success between south-eastern and south-western Scotland suggest that the effect of organochlorine pesticides on Peregrine reproductive success and/or the recovery from pesticide effects varied geographically and was possibly affected by other factors such as persecution.

Ibis↗