Geology topics

Jared S. Laufenberg

Publications and source records attributed to Jared S. Laufenberg.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Spatially explicit capture-mark-recapture to evaluate demographic status of the Louisiana black bear

Louisiana black bears ( Ursus americanus luteolus ) occur in semi-isolated fragments of bottomland hardwood forest in the lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley and were listed as threatened under the United States Endangered Species Act in 1992. A population viability analysis based on radio-telemetry and capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data collected from 2002 to 2012 revealed that the probability of bears persisting in at least 1 subpopulation was >0.999, which prompted the United States Fish and Wildlife Service to remove the Louisiana black bear from the threatened species list in 2016. A post-delisting monitoring plan was developed, which included continued noninvasive CMR surveys to monitor subpopulation trends. We used genetic CMR data based on non-invasively collected hair samples for a post-delisting assessment of the demographic status of the black bear subpopulations in Louisiana, USA. The assessment included primary range in the Tensas River Basin (TRB; 2006–2020), the Upper Atchafalaya River Basin (UARB; 2007–2020), and the Three Rivers Complex (TRC; 2014 and 2021), where bears had been reintroduced beginning in 2001, and adjacent areas of possible range expansion (i.e., secondary range). We used spatially explicit closed-population capture-recapture models to estimate abundance ( N ), density ( D ), and the realized population growth rate ( λ ) for female bears at TRB, UARB, and TRC. Model-averaged estimates of N for primary range at TRB ranged from 135 (95% CI = 121–149) female bears in 2006 to 140 (95% CI = 123–157) in 2020 with mean λ of 1.003 (95% CI = 0.991–1.015), which suggested a stable primary population. An estimated 56 (95% CI = 19–92) additional female bears occurred in secondary range at TRB in 2020. Model-averaged estimates of N for primary range at UARB ranged from 35 (95% CI = 28–43) females in 2007 to 33 (95% CI = 28–43) in 2020, with mean λ = 0.996 (95% CI = 0.972–1.020), again suggesting a stable population. We estimated 3 (95% CI = 0–6) additional female bears occurred in secondary range at UARB during 2020. The estimate of N at TRC was 28 (95% CI = 18–44) females in 2014 and 42 (95% CI = 19–94) in 2021. The number of bears in the secondary ranges suggests some bears may have emigrated from the primary areas and colonized secondary areas, likely facilitated by increases in bottomland hardwood forests adjacent to the core populations. The stable primary populations, the reintroduced population at TRC, and the number of bears in secondary range adjacent to TRB indicate the overall number of Louisiana black bears has increased since monitoring began.

Louisiana↗

USGS2018

Genetic diversity, effective population size, and structure among black bear populations in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley, USA

Multiple small populations of American black bears Ursus americanus , including the recently delisted Louisiana black bear subspecies U. a. luteolus , occupy a fragmented landscape in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley, USA (LMAV). Populations include bears native to the LMAV, bears translocated from Minnesota during the 1960s, and recently reintroduced and colonizing populations sourced from within the LMAV. We estimated population structure, gene flow, and genetic parameters important to conservation of small populations using genotypes at 23 microsatellite markers for 265 bears from seven populations. We inferred five genetic clusters corresponding to the following populations: White River and western Mississippi, Tensas River and Three Rivers, Upper Atchafalaya, Lower Atchafalaya, and Minnesota. Upper Atchafalaya was suggested as the product of Minnesota-sourced translocations, but those populations have since diverged, likely because of a founder effect followed by genetic drift and isolation. An admixture zone recently developed in northeastern Louisiana and western Mississippi between migrants from White River and Tensas River, resulting in a Wahlund effect. However, gene flow among most populations has been limited and considerable genetic differentiation accumulated (global F ST = 0.22), particularly among the three Louisiana black bear populations that existed when federal listing occurred. Consistent with previous bottlenecks, founder effects, and persisting isolation, all LMAV bear populations had low genetic diversity ( A R = 2.08–4.81; H E = 0.36–0.63) or small effective population size ( N E = 3–49). Translocating bears among populations as part of a regional genetic restoration program may help improve genetic diversity and increase effective population sizes.

Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley↗

USGS2018

Estimating population extinction thresholds with categorical classification trees for Louisiana black bears

Monitoring vulnerable species is critical for their conservation. Thresholds or tipping points are commonly used to indicate when populations become vulnerable to extinction and to trigger changes in conservation actions. However, quantitative methods to determine such thresholds have not been well explored. The Louisiana black bear ( Ursus americanus luteolus ) was removed from the list of threatened and endangered species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 2016 and our objectives were to determine the most appropriate parameters and thresholds for monitoring and management action. Capture mark recapture (CMR) data from 2006 to 2012 were used to estimate population parameters and variances. We used stochastic population simulations and conditional classification trees to identify demographic rates for monitoring that would be most indicative of heighted extinction risk. We then identified thresholds that would be reliable predictors of population viability. Conditional classification trees indicated that annual apparent survival rates for adult females averaged over 5 years ( ) was the best predictor of population persistence. Specifically, population persistence was estimated to be ≥95% over 100 years when , suggesting that this statistic can be used as threshold to trigger management intervention. Our evaluation produced monitoring protocols that reliably predicted population persistence and was cost-effective. We conclude that population projections and conditional classification trees can be valuable tools for identifying extinction thresholds used in monitoring programs.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2017

No flood effect on recruitment of a small Louisiana black bear population

A flood event in 2011 had minor impacts on apparent survival and movement probabilities of a small, isolated population of Louisiana black bears ( Ursus americanus luteolus ) in the Upper Atchafalaya River Basin, Louisiana, USA. However, the potential effects of the flood on recruitment of juveniles into the population, then listed as threatened under the United States Endangered Species Act, were not evaluated. We used hair trapping data collected from 2007 to 2015 and Pradel temporal symmetry models in a robust‐design framework to investigate changes in per capita recruitment that could have resulted from the flood. We detected 91 bears (37 M:54 F) within the flooded area during our study period, ranging from 21 to 44 individuals/year. Models that tested for reduced recruitment resulting from the flood were not supported more than models with constant recruitment, and the population growth rate did not decline. Although we documented marginally lower recruitment following the 2011 flood, lag effects and detectability biases complicated our analysis. We suggest that wildlife managers continue monitoring recruitment and survival in this recently delisted black bear population given the potential for heightened flood frequency and severity in the future.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2016

Demographic rates and population viability of black bears in Louisiana

The Louisiana black bear ( Ursus americanus luteolus ) was reduced to a few small, fragmented, and isolated subpopulations in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley by the mid-twentieth century resulting from loss and fragmentation of habitat. In 1992, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) granted the Louisiana black bear threatened status under the United States Endangered Species Act of 1973. Since that time, a recovery plan was developed, a reintroduced population was established, and habitat recovery has occurred. The Recovery Plan states that a minimum of 2 populations must be viable (i.e., persistence probabilities over 100 years >0.95), 1 in the Tensas River Basin and 1 in the Atchafalaya River Basin. Consequently, our objectives were to 1) estimate demographic rates of Louisiana black bear subpopulations, 2) develop data-driven stochastic population projection models, and 3) determine how different projection model assumptions affect population trajectories and predictions about long-term persistence. Our overall goal was to assess long-term persistence of the bear subpopulations in Louisiana, individually and as a whole. We collected data using varying combinations of non-invasive DNA sampling, live capture, winter den visits, and radio monitoring from 2002 to 2012 in the 4 areas currently supporting breeding subpopulations in Louisiana: Tensas River Basin (TRB), Upper Atchafalaya River Basin (UARB), Lower Atchafalaya River Basin (LARB), and a recently reintroduced population at the Three Rivers Complex (TRC). From 2002 to 2012, we radio monitored fates of 86 adult females within the TRB and 43 in the TRC. Mean estimates of annual adult survival for the TRB and TRC were 0.997 and 0.990, respectively, when unknown fates were assumed alive and 0.970 and 0.926 when unknown fates were assumed dead. From 2003 to 2013, we observed 130 cub litters from 74 females in the TRB, and 74 cub litters from 45 females in the TRC. During the same period, we observed 43 yearling litters for 33 females in the TRB and 21 yearling litters for 19 females in the TRC. The estimated number of cubs and number of yearlings produced per breeding adult female was 0.47 and 0.20, respectively, in the TRB and 0.32 and 0.18 in the TRC. On the basis of matrix projection models, asymptotic growth rates ranged from 1.053 to 1.078 for the TRB and from 1.005 to 1.062 for the TRC, depending on how we treated unresolved fates of adult females. Persistence probabilities estimated from stochastic population models based on telemetry data ranged from 0.997 to 0.998 for the TRC subpopulation depending on model assumptions and were >0.999 for the TRB regardless of model assumptions. We extracted DNA from hair collected at baited, barbed-wire enclosures in the TRB, UARB, and LARB to determine individual identities for capture-mark-recapture (CMR) analysis. We used those detection histories to estimate apparent survival ( φ ), per-capita recruitment ( f ), abundance ( N ), realized growth rate ( λ ), and long-term viability, based on Bayesian hierarchical modeling methods that allowed estimation of temporal process variance and parameter uncertainty. Based on 23,312 hair samples, annual N for females in the TRB ranged from 133 to 164 during 2006–2012, depending on year and how detection heterogeneity was modeled. Geometric mean of λ ranged from 0.996 to 1.002. In the UARB, we collected 11,643 hair samples from 2007 to 2012, from which estimates of N for females ranged from 23 to 43 during the study period, depending on detection heterogeneity model. The geometric mean of λ ranged from 1.038 to 1.059. Estimated N for females in LARB ranged from 69 to 96, and annual λ ranged from 0.80 to 1.11 based on 3,698 hair samples collected during 2010–2012, also depending on year and heterogeneity model. Probabilities of persistence over 100 years for the TRC and TRB based on stochastic matrix projection models that used vital rate estimates from telemetry data were >0.95 for all scenarios. Probability of persistence at the TRB and the UARB based on projection models that used vital rate estimates from CMR analyses ranged from 0.928 to 0.954 and from 0.906 to 0.959, respectively, depending on model assumptions. Data from the LARB were insufficient for a viability assessment. Thus, individual persistence probabilities for TRB and UARB did not meet the strict definition of viability (i.e., >0.95) under some model assumptions. However, the joint probability of bears persisting either in the TRB or UARB was >0.993 assuming individual population dynamics were independent and was >0.958 assuming dynamics were perfectly correlated. Furthermore, including the TRC increased the joint probability of bears persisting somewhere in the TRB, UARB, or TRC to >0.999 based on the most pessimistic individual persistence estimates from those subpopulations. Therefore, if the intent of specifying that 2 subpopulations should be viable was to ensure the persistence of Louisiana black bears somewhere within its historical range, then the viability threshold was met. © 2016 The Wildlife Society.

Louisiana↗

USGS2015

Connectivity among subpopulations of Louisiana black bears as estimated by a step selection function

Habitat fragmentation is a fundamental cause of population decline and increased risk of extinction for many wildlife species; animals with large home ranges and small population sizes are particularly sensitive. The Louisiana black bear ( Ursus americanus luteolus ) exists only in small, isolated subpopulations as a result of land clearing for agriculture, but the relative potential for inter-subpopulation movement by Louisiana black bears has not been quantified, nor have characteristics of effective travel routes between habitat fragments been identified. We placed and monitored global positioning system (GPS) radio collars on 8 female and 23 male bears located in 4 subpopulations in Louisiana, which included a reintroduced subpopulation located between 2 of the remnant subpopulations. We compared characteristics of sequential radiolocations of bears (i.e., steps) with steps that were possible but not chosen by the bears to develop step selection function models based on conditional logistic regression. The probability of a step being selected by a bear increased as the distance to natural land cover and agriculture at the end of the step decreased and as distance from roads at the end of a step increased. To characterize connectivity among subpopulations, we used the step selection models to create 4,000 hypothetical correlated random walks for each subpopulation representing potential dispersal events to estimate the proportion that intersected adjacent subpopulations (hereafter referred to as successful dispersals). Based on the models, movement paths for males intersected all adjacent subpopulations but paths for females intersected only the most proximate subpopulations. Cross-validation and genetic and independent observation data supported our findings. Our models also revealed that successful dispersals were facilitated by a reintroduced population located between 2 distant subpopulations. Successful dispersals for males were dependent on natural land cover in private ownership. The addition of hypothetical 1,000-m- or 3,000-m-wide corridors between the 4 study areas had minimal effects on connectivity among subpopulations. For females, our model suggested that habitat between subpopulations would probably have to be permanently occupied for demographic rescue to occur. Thus, the establishment of stepping-stone populations, such as the reintroduced population that we studied, may be a more effective conservation measure than long corridors without a population presence in between.

Louisiana↗

USGS2014

Population viability and connectivity of the Louisiana black bear ( Ursus americanus luteolus )

In 1992, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) granted Ursus americanus luteolus (Louisiana black bear) threatened status under the U.S. Endangered Species Act of 1973, listing loss and fragmentation of habitat as the primary threats. A study was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the University of Tennessee, the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries, and the USFWS to estimate demographic rates and genetic structure of Louisiana black bear populations; evaluate relations between environmental and anthropogenic factors and demographic, genetic, and movement characteristics of Louisiana black bear populations; and develop data-driven stochastic population projection models to assess long-term persistence of individual subpopulations and the overall black bear population in Louisiana. Data were collected with non-invasive DNA sampling, live capture, winter den visits, and radio monitoring from 2002 to 2012 in the four areas supporting breeding subpopulations in Louisiana: Tensas River Basin (TRB), Upper Atchafalaya River Basin (UARB), Lower Atchafalaya River Basin (LARB), and Three Rivers Complex (TRC). Bears were live trapped and radio collared in the TRB and TRC to estimate survival and reproductive rates, deterministic matrix models were used to estimate asymptotic growth rates, and stochastic population models were used to estimate long-term viability. DNA extracted from hair collected at baited, barbed-wire enclosures in the TRB, UARB, and LARB and capture-mark-recapture (CMR) analysis based on Bayesian hierarchical modeling methods were used to estimate apparent survival ( φ ), per capita recruitment ( γ ), abundance ( N ), realized growth rate ( λ ), and long-term viability. From 2002 to 2012, we radio monitored 86 adult females greater than (>) 2 years old within the TRB, and 43 adult females were monitored in the TRC. The mean annual survival rate estimate ranged from 0.97 to 0.99 for the TRB and from 0.93 to 0.97 for the TRC. Fecundity and yearling recruitment in the TRB were 0.47 and 0.15, respectively, whereas estimates for the TRC were 0.37 and 0.18. Depending on estimated carrying capacity, the strength of the density dependence, level of uncertainty, and the treatment of unresolved signals, persistence probabilities for the TRC subpopulation ranged from 0.295 to 0.999. Estimates of N for females in the TRB ranged from 140 to 163 during 2006–12 when detection heterogeneity was assumed to follow a logistic-normal distribution (Model 1) and from 133 to 158 when a 2-point finite mixture distribution was assumed (Model 2). Annual estimates of γ ranged from 0.00 to 0.16 and from 0 to 0.22, depending on the model, and estimates of φ ranged from 0.87 to 0.93 during that period. In the UARB, estimates of N for females ranged from 25 to 44 during the study period, regardless of heterogeneity model. Estimated γ ranged from 0.00 to 0.41, and φ ranged from 0.88 to 0.90 during that period. Estimated N for females in the LARB was from 78 to 97 from 2010 to 2012 based on Model 1 and from 68 to 84 based on Model 2. Estimates of γ were 0.00 for 2010–11 regardless of heterogeneity model and ranged from 0.24 to 0.31 for 2011–12, depending on the model assumptions. We estimated φ as 0.81 for 2010–11, and from 0.84 to 0.85 for 2011–12, depending on model assumptions. We estimated Φ as 0.81 for 2010–11, ranging and from 0.84 to 0.85 for 2011–12, depending on model assumptions. On the basis of vital rate estimates from Model 1 of the CMR analysis, probability of persistence over 100 years for the TRB population was >0.999, 0.975, and 0.958 for process-only, 50-percent (%) credible interval (CI), and 95% CI projections, respectively. Similarly, the probability of persistence based on Model 2 was >0.999, 0.982, and 0.958. For the UARB, probabilities of persistence based on Model 1 were >0.999, 0.971, and 0.958 for process-only, 50% CI, and 95% CI projections, respectively, and 0.993, 0.929, and 0.849 for Model 2. Using the telemetry and reproductive data from the TRC, probabilities of persistence were greater than or equal to 0.95 only for projections based on the most optimistic set of assumptions. Assuming that the dynamics of the TRB, TRC, and UARB populations were independent and using the most pessimistic population-specific persistence probabilities (that is, 0.958, 0.295, and 0.849, respectively), the overall probability of persistence for bears in that population system was 0.996. Genetic methods were used to estimate interchange and structure between subpopulations in Louisiana and in Minnesota (MINN); Mississippi (MISS); and the White River Basin (WRB), Arkansas. Results from the all-population and the WRB–TRB clustering analyses indicate at least five genetically distinct populations. The genetic clustering and migrant analyses combined with capture data provided direct evidence that interchange has occurred from the WRB to the TRB and MISS, from the TRB to MISS, from the UARB to the TRC, and from the TRC to the TRB. Indirect evidence that interchange occurred from the UARB to the TRC and from the UARB to the TRB by way of the TRC was documented. No evidence was found of interchange from any of the subpopulations to the WRB, UARB, or LARB. From April 2010 to April 2012, global positioning system (GPS) radio collars were placed on 8 female and 23 male bears ranging from 1 to 11 years of age to develop a step-selection function model to predict routes and rates of interchange. For both males and females, the probability of a step being selected increased as the distance to natural land cover and agriculture at the end of the step decreased and as distance from roads at the end of a step increased. Of 4,000 correlated random walks, the least potential interchange was between TRB and TRC and between UARB and LARB, but the relative potential for natural interchange between UARB and TRC was high. The step-selection model predicted that dispersals between the LARB and UARB populations were infrequent but possible for males and nearly nonexistent for females. No evidence of natural female dispersal between subpopulations has been documented thus far, which is also consistent with model predictions.

Louisiana↗

USGS2013

Effects of sampling conditions on DNA-based estimates of American black bear abundance

DNA-based capture-mark-recapture techniques are commonly used to estimate American black bear ( Ursus americanus ) population abundance (N). Although the technique is well established, many questions remain regarding study design. In particular, relationships among N, capture probability of heterogeneity mixtures A and B (p A and p B , respectively, or p , collectively), the proportion of each mixture (π), number of capture occasions (k), and probability of obtaining reliable estimates of N are not fully understood. We investigated these relationships using 1) an empirical dataset of DNA samples for which true N was unknown and 2) simulated datasets with known properties that represented a broader array of sampling conditions. For the empirical data analysis, we used the full closed population with heterogeneity data type in Program MARK to estimate N for a black bear population in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee. We systematically reduced the number of those samples used in the analysis to evaluate the effect that changes in capture probabilities may have on parameter estimates. Model-averaged N for females and males were 161 (95% CI = 114–272) and 100 (95% CI = 74–167), respectively (pooled N = 261, 95% CI = 192–419), and the average weekly p was 0.09 for females and 0.12 for males. When we reduced the number of samples of the empirical data, support for heterogeneity models decreased. For the simulation analysis, we generated capture data with individual heterogeneity covering a range of sampling conditions commonly encountered in DNA-based capture-mark-recapture studies and examined the relationships between those conditions and accuracy (i.e., probability of obtaining an estimated N that is within 20% of true N), coverage (i.e., probability that 95% confidence interval includes true N), and precision (i.e., probability of obtaining a coefficient of variation ≤20%) of estimates using logistic regression. The capture probability for the larger of 2 mixture proportions of the population (i.e., p A or p B , depending on the value of π) was most important for predicting accuracy and precision, whereas capture probabilities of both mixture proportions (p A and p B ) were important to explain variation in coverage. Based on sampling conditions similar to parameter estimates from the empirical dataset (p A  = 0.30, p B  = 0.05, N = 250, π = 0.15, and k = 10), predicted accuracy and precision were low (60% and 53%, respectively), whereas coverage was high (94%). Increasing p B , the capture probability for the predominate but most difficult to capture proportion of the population, was most effective to improve accuracy under those conditions. However, manipulation of other parameters may be more effective under different conditions. In general, the probabilities of obtaining accurate and precise estimates were best when p ≥ 0.2. Our regression models can be used by managers to evaluate specific sampling scenarios and guide development of sampling frameworks or to assess reliability of DNA-based capture-mark-recapture studies.

Tennessee↗