Geology topics

Jan Seibert

Publications and source records attributed to Jan Seibert.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2017

Streamflow characteristics from modelled runoff time series: Importance of calibration criteria selection

Ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics (SFCs) of ungauged catchments are often estimated from simulated runoff of hydrologic models that were originally calibrated on gauged catchments. However, SFC estimates of the gauged donor catchments and subsequently the ungauged catchments can be substantially uncertain when models are calibrated using traditional approaches based on optimization of statistical performance metrics (e.g., Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency). An improved calibration strategy for gauged catchments is therefore crucial to help reduce the uncertainties of estimated SFCs for ungauged catchments. The aim of this study was to improve SFC estimates from modeled runoff time series in gauged catchments by explicitly including one or several SFCs in the calibration process. Different types of objective functions were defined consisting of the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency, single SFCs, or combinations thereof. We calibrated a bucket-type runoff model (HBV – Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning – model) for 25 catchments in the Tennessee River basin and evaluated the proposed calibration approach on 13 ecologically relevant SFCs representing major flow regime components and different flow conditions. While the model generally tended to underestimate the tested SFCs related to mean and high-flow conditions, SFCs related to low flow were generally overestimated. The highest estimation accuracies were achieved by a SFC-specific model calibration. Estimates of SFCs not included in the calibration process were of similar quality when comparing a multi-SFC calibration approach to a traditional model efficiency calibration. For practical applications, this implies that SFCs should preferably be estimated from targeted runoff model calibration, and modeled estimates need to be carefully interpreted.

Tennessee↗

USGS2017

How uncertainty analysis of streamflow data can reduce costs and promote robust decisions in water management applications

Streamflow data are used for important environmental and economic decisions, such as specifying and regulating minimum flows, managing water supplies, and planning for flood hazards. Despite significant uncertainty in most flow data, the flow series for these applications are often communicated and used without uncertainty information. In this commentary, we argue that proper analysis of uncertainty in river flow data can reduce costs and promote robust conclusions in water management applications. We substantiate our argument by providing case studies from Norway and New Zealand where streamflow uncertainty analysis has uncovered economic costs in the hydropower industry, improved public acceptance of a controversial water management policy, and tested the accuracy of water quality trends. We discuss the need for practical uncertainty assessment tools that generate multiple flow series realizations rather than simple error bounds. Although examples of such tools are in development, considerable barriers for uncertainty analysis and communication still exist for practitioners, and future research must aim to provide easier access and usability of uncertainty estimates. We conclude that flow uncertainty analysis is critical for good water management decisions.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2016

Model calibration criteria for estimating ecological flow characteristics

Quantification of streamflow characteristics in ungauged catchments remains a challenge. Hydrological modeling is often used to derive flow time series and to calculate streamflow characteristics for subsequent applications that may differ from those envisioned by the modelers. While the estimation of model parameters for ungauged catchments is a challenging research task in itself, it is important to evaluate whether simulated time series preserve critical aspects of the streamflow hydrograph. To address this question, seven calibration objective functions were evaluated for their ability to preserve ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics of the average annual hydrograph using a runoff model, HBV-light, at 27 catchments in the southeastern United States. Calibration trials were repeated 100 times to reduce parameter uncertainty effects on the results, and 12 ecological flow characteristics were computed for comparison. Our results showed that the most suitable calibration strategy varied according to streamflow characteristic. Combined objective functions generally gave the best results, though a clear underprediction bias was observed. The occurrence of low prediction errors for certain combinations of objective function and flow characteristic suggests that (1) incorporating multiple ecological flow characteristics into a single objective function would increase model accuracy, potentially benefitting decision-making processes; and (2) there may be a need to have different objective functions available to address specific applications of the predicted time series.

Book chapter↗

USGS2015

Accelerating advances in continental domain hydrologic modeling

In the past, hydrologic modeling of surface water resources has mainly focused on simulating the hydrologic cycle at local to regional catchment modeling domains. There now exists a level of maturity among the catchment, global water security, and land surface modeling communities such that these communities are converging toward continental domain hydrologic models. This commentary, written from a catchment hydrology community perspective, provides a review of progress in each community toward this achievement, identifies common challenges the communities face, and details immediate and specific areas in which these communities can mutually benefit one another from the convergence of their research perspectives. Those include: (1) creating new incentives and infrastructure to report and share model inputs, outputs, and parameters in data services and open access, machine-independent formats for model replication or reanalysis; (2) ensuring that hydrologic models have: sufficient complexity to represent the dominant physical processes and adequate representation of anthropogenic impacts on the terrestrial water cycle, a process-based approach to model parameter estimation, and appropriate parameterizations to represent large-scale fluxes and scaling behavior; (3) maintaining a balance between model complexity and data availability as well as uncertainties; and (4) quantifying and communicating significant advancements toward these modeling goals.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2012

Modelling rating curves using remotely sensed LiDAR data

Accurate stream discharge measurements are important for many hydrological studies. In remote locations, however, it is often difficult to obtain stream flow information because of the difficulty in making the discharge measurements necessary to define stage-discharge relationships (rating curves). This study investigates the feasibility of defining rating curves by using a fluid mechanics-based model constrained with topographic data from an airborne LiDAR scanning. The study was carried out for an 8m-wide channel in the boreal landscape of northern Sweden. LiDAR data were used to define channel geometry above a low flow water surface along the 90-m surveyed reach. The channel topography below the water surface was estimated using the simple assumption of a flat streambed. The roughness for the modelled reach was back calculated from a single measurment of discharge. The topographic and roughness information was then used to model a rating curve. To isolate the potential influence of the flat bed assumption, a 'hybrid model' rating curve was developed on the basis of data combined from the LiDAR scan and a detailed ground survey. Whereas this hybrid model rating curve was in agreement with the direct measurements of discharge, the LiDAR model rating curve was equally in agreement with the medium and high flow measurements based on confidence intervals calculated from the direct measurements. The discrepancy between the LiDAR model rating curve and the low flow measurements was likely due to reduced roughness associated with unresolved submerged bed topography. Scanning during periods of low flow can help minimize this deficiency. These results suggest that combined ground surveys and LiDAR scans or multifrequency LiDAR scans that see 'below' the water surface (bathymetric LiDAR) could be useful in generating data needed to run such a fluid mechanics-based model. This opens a realm of possibility to remotely sense and monitor stream flows in channels in remote locations.

Hydrological Processes↗

USGS2004

Scale effects on headwater catchment runoff timing, flow sources, and groundwater‐streamflow relations

The effects of catchment size and landscape organization on runoff generation are poorly understood. Little research has integrated hillslope and riparian runoff investigation across catchments of different sizes to decipher first‐order controls on runoff generation. We investigated the role of catchment sizes on riparian and hillslope dynamics based on hydrometric and tracer data observed at five scales ranging from trenched hillslope sections (55–285 m 2 ) to a 280‐ha catchment at Maimai on the west coast of the South Island, New Zealand. The highly organized landscape is comprised of similar headwater catchments, regular geology, steep highly dissected topography, relatively consistent soil depths, and topographically controlled shallow through flow. We found a strong correlation between riparian zone groundwater levels and runoff for the headwaters, whereas the water tables in the valley bottom of the larger catchments were uncorrelated to runoff for 14 months of record. While there was no clear relationship between catchment size and new water contribution to runoff in the two storms analyzed in detail, lag times of tracer responses increased systematically with catchment size. The combination of hydrometric and tracer data allowed assessment of the runoff contributions from different parts of the landscape. Runoff was generated consistently in headwater riparian zones. This agreed also with the observed variations of tracer ( 18 O and silica) responses for the different catchments. During wetter antecedent conditions or during larger events (>30 mm under dry antecedent conditions) hillslope and valley bottom floodplains did contribute to event runoff directly. We propose that analysis of landscape‐scale organization and the distribution of dominant landscape features provide a structure for investigation of runoff production and solute transport, especially as catchment‐scale increases from headwaters to the mesoscale.

Water Resources Research↗