Geology topics

J.P. Runge

Publications and source records attributed to J.P. Runge.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2008

Sources of variation in detection of wading birds from aerial surveys in the Florida Everglades

We conducted dual-observer trials to estimate detection probabilities (probability that a group that is present and available is detected) for fixed-wing aerial surveys of wading birds in the Everglades system, Florida. Detection probability ranged from <0.2 to similar to 0.75 and varied according to species, group size, observer, and the observer's position in the aircraft (front or rear seat). Aerial-survey simulations indicated that incomplete detection can have a substantial effect oil assessment of population trends, particularly river relatively short intervals (<= 3 years) and small annual changes in population size (<= 3%). We conclude that detection bias is an important consideration for interpreting observations from aerial surveys of wading birds, potentially limiting the use of these data for comparative purposes and trend analyses. We recommend that workers conducting aerial surveys for wading birds endeavor to reduce observer and other controllable sources of detection bias and account for uncontrollable sources through incorporation of dual-observer or other calibratior methods as part of survey design (e.g., using double sampling).

The Auk↗

USGS2008

Efficient estimation of abundance for patchily distributed populations via two-phase, adaptive sampling.

Many organisms are patchily distributed, with some patches occupied at high density, others at lower densities, and others not occupied. Estimation of overall abundance can be difficult and is inefficient via intensive approaches such as capture-mark-recapture (CMR) or distance sampling. We propose a two-phase sampling scheme and model in a Bayesian framework to estimate abundance for patchily distributed populations. In the first phase, occupancy is estimated by binomial detection samples taken on all selected sites, where selection may be of all sites available, or a random sample of sites. Detection can be by visual surveys, detection of sign, physical captures, or other approach. At the second phase, if a detection threshold is achieved, CMR or other intensive sampling is conducted via standard procedures (grids or webs) to estimate abundance. Detection and CMR data are then used in a joint likelihood to model probability of detection in the occupancy sample via an abundance-detection model. CMR modeling is used to estimate abundance for the abundance-detection relationship, which in turn is used to predict abundance at the remaining sites, where only detection data are collected. We present a full Bayesian modeling treatment of this problem, in which posterior inference on abundance and other parameters (detection, capture probability) is obtained under a variety of assumptions about spatial and individual sources of heterogeneity. We apply the approach to abundance estimation for two species of voles (Microtus spp.) in Montana, USA. We also use a simulation study to evaluate the frequentist properties of our procedure given known patterns in abundance and detection among sites as well as design criteria. For most population characteristics and designs considered, bias and mean-square error (MSE) were low, and coverage of true parameter values by Bayesian credibility intervals was near nominal. Our two-phase, adaptive approach allows efficient estimation of abundance of rare and patchily distributed species and is particularly appropriate when sampling in all patches is impossible, but a global estimate of abundance is required.

Ecology↗

USGS2007

Estimating species-specific suvival and movement when species identification is uncertain

Incorporating uncertainty in the investigation of ecological studies has been the topic of an increasing body of research. In particular, mark-recapture methodology has shown that incorporating uncertainty in the probability of detecting individuals in populations enables accurate estimation of population-level processes such as survival, reproduction, and dispersal. Recent advances in mark-recapture methodology have included estimating population-level processes for biologically important groups despite the misassignment of individuals to those groups. Examples include estimating rates of apparent survival despite less than perfect accuracy when identifying individuals to gender or breeding state. Here we introduce a method for estimating apparent survival and dispersal in species that co-occur but that are difficult to distinguish. We use data from co-occurring populations of meadow voles (Microtus pennsylvanicus) and montane voles (M. montanus) in addition to simulated data to show that ignoring species uncertainty can lead to biased estimates of population processes. The incorporation of species uncertainty in mark-recapture studies should aid future research investigating ecological concepts such as interspecific competition, niche differentiation, and spatial population dynamics in sibling species.

Ecology↗

USGS2006

The role of local populations within a landscape context: Defining and classifying sources and sinks

The interaction of local populations has been the focus of an increasing number of studies in the past 30 years. The study of source-sink dynamics has especially generated much interest. Many of the criteria used to distinguish sources and sinks incorporate the process of apparent survival (i.e., the combined probability of true survival and site fidelity) but not emigration. These criteria implicitly treat emigration as mortality, thus biasing the classification of sources and sinks in a manner that could lead to flawed habitat management. Some of the same criteria require rather restrictive assumptions about population equilibrium that, when violated, can also generate misleading inference. Here, we expand on a criterion (denoted ?contribution? or Cr) that incorporates successful emigration in differentiating sources and sinks and that makes no restrictive assumptions about dispersal or equilibrium processes in populations of interest. The metric Cr is rooted in the theory of matrix population models, yet it also contains clearly specified parameters that have been estimated in previous empirical research. We suggest that estimates of emigration are important for delineating sources and sinks and, more generally, for evaluating how local populations interact to generate overall system dynamics. This suggestion has direct implications for issues such as species conservation and habitat management.

American Naturalist↗