Geology topics

J.N. Thomas

Publications and source records attributed to J.N. Thomas.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2015

On a report that the 2012 M 6.0 earthquake in Italy was predicted after seeing an unusual cloud formation

Several recently published reports have suggested that semi-stationary linear-cloud formations might be causally precursory to earthquakes. We examine the report of Guangmeng and Jie (2013), who claim to have predicted the 2012 M 6.0 earthquake in the Po Valley of northern Italy after seeing a satellite photograph (a digital image) showing a linear-cloud formation over the eastern Apennine Mountains of central Italy. From inspection of 4 years of satellite images we find numerous examples of linear-cloud formations over Italy. A simple test shows no obvious statistical relationship between the occurrence of these cloud formations and earthquakes that occurred in and around Italy. All of the linear-cloud formations we have identified in satellite images, including that which Guangmeng and Jie (2013) claim to have used to predict the 2012 earthquake, appear to be orographic – formed by the interaction of moisture-laden wind flowing over mountains. Guangmeng and Jie (2013) have not clearly stated how linear-cloud formations can be used to predict the size, location, and time of an earthquake, and they have not published an account of all of their predictions (including any unsuccessful predictions). We are skeptical of the validity of the claim by Guangmeng and Jie (2013) that they have managed to predict any earthquakes.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗

USGS2009

On the reported magnetic precursor of the 1993 guam earthquake

Using 1-second magnetometer data recorded 67 km from the epicenter of the 1993 M w 7.7 Guam earthquake, Hayakawa et al. (1996) and Miyahara et al. (1999) identify anomalous precursory changes in ultra-low frequency magnetic polarization (the ratio of vertical to horizontal field components). In a check of their results, we compare their data (GAM) with 1-second data from the Kakioka observatory (KAK) in Japan and the global magnetic activity index Kp. We also examine log books kept by USGS staff working on the Guam magnetic observatory. We find (1) analysis problems with both Hayakawa et al. and Miyahara et al., (2) significant correlation between the GAM, KAK, and Kp data, and (3) an absence of identifiable localized anomalous signals occurring prior to the earthquake. The changes we do find in polarization are part of normal global magnetic activity; they are unrelated to the earthquake. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2009

On the reported magnetic precursor of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake

Among the most frequently cited reports in the science of earthquake prediction is that by Fraser-Smith et al. (1990) and Bernardi et al. (1991). They found anomalous enhancement of magnetic-field noise levels prior to the 18 October 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake in the ultra-low-frequency range (0.0110-10.001 Hz) from a ground-based sensor at Corralitos, CA, just 7 km from the earthquake epicenter. In this analysis, we re-examine all of the available Corralitos data (21 months from January 1989 to October 1990) and the logbook kept during this extended operational period. We also examine 1.0-Hz (1-s) data collected from Japan, 0.0167-Hz (1-min) data collected from the Fresno, CA magnetic observatory, and the global Kp magnetic-activity index. The Japanese data are of particular importance since their acquisition rate is sufficient to allow direct comparison with the lower-frequency bands of the Corralitos data. We identify numerous problems in the Corralitos data, evident from both straightforward examination of the Corralitos data on their own and by comparison with the Japanese and Fresno data sets. The most notable problems are changes in the baseline noise levels occurring during both the reported precursory period and at other times long before and after the earthquake. We conclude that the reported anomalous magnetic noise identified by Fraser-Smith et al. and Bernardi et al. is not related to the Loma Prieta earthquake but is an artifact of sensor-system malfunction. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors↗

USGS2008

Rare measurements of a sprite with halo event driven by a negative lightning discharge over Argentina

As part of a collaborative campaign to investigate Transient Lummous Events (TLEs) over South America, coordinated optical, ELF/VLF, and lightning measurements were made of a mesoscale thunderstorm observed on February 22-23, 2006 over northern Argentina that produced 445 TLEs within a ???6 hour period. Here, we report comprehensive measurements of one of these events, a sprite with halo that was unambiguously associated with a large negative cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning discharge with an impulsive vertical charge moment change (??MQv) of -503 C.km. This event was similar in its location, morphology and duration to other positive TLEs observed from this storm. However, the downward extent of the negative streamers was limited to 25 km, and their apparent brightness was lower than that of a comparable positive event. Observations of negative CG events are rare, and these measurements provide fin-ther evidence that sprites can be driven by upward as well as downward electric fields, as predicted by the conventional breakdown mechanism. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Geophysical Research Letters↗