J.C. Stepp | USGS Science

USGS2001

Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses for ground motions and fault displacement at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses were conducted to estimate both ground motion and fault displacement hazards at the potential geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The study is believed to be the largest and most comprehensive analyses ever conducted for ground-shaking hazard and is a first-of-a-kind assessment of probabilistic fault displacement hazard. The major emphasis of the study was on the quantification of epistemic uncertainty. Six teams of three experts performed seismic source and fault displacement evaluations, and seven individual experts provided ground motion evaluations. State-of-the-practice expert elicitation processes involving structured workshops, consensus identification of parameters and issues to be evaluated, common sharing of data and information, and open exchanges about the basis for preliminary interpretations were implemented. Ground-shaking hazard was computed for a hypothetical rock outcrop at -300 m, the depth of the potential waste emplacement drifts, at the designated design annual exceedance probabilities of 10-3 and 10-4. The fault displacement hazard was calculated at the design annual exceedance probabilities of 10-4 and 10-5.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS1980

Seismic hazard study of the western portion of the Garlock fault [California]

Investigations of the western segment of the Garlock fault were conducted at Castac Lake, Twin Lakes and Oak Creek Canyon. Studies were concentrated on the youngest fault trace as delineated by Clark (1973). Seismic refraction surveys, topographic surveys and geologic mapping provided positive evidence for fault offsets in Quaternary deposits at Twin Lakes and Oak Creek Canyon. Investigations at Castac Lake were concentrated on the fault segment north of the lake. Previous investigations south of the lake and across the dry lake bottom exposed unbroken strata dating back 8050 +300 years B.P. No evidence of offset of young deposits was found north of the lake from surface investigations or seismic refraction data. Trenching of sag pond deposits at Twin Lakes revealed fault traces representing 2 events confined to a zone 3 meters wide. The stratigraphy at Twin Lakes consists of alternating units of clay and sand allowing measurements of vertical offsets. Based on radiocarbon dates of detrital charcoal, the most recent movement occurred less than 890 +195 years B.P. and the proceeding event occurred greater than 2,800 +165 years B.P. Total vertical offset was 80 to 100 cm for the most recent movement and 55-60 cm for the proceeding event. Geomorphic analysis of offset alluvial stream channels at Oak Creek Canyon provided an estimate of 1.6 to 3.3 mm per year of left lateral movement during Holocene and late Pleistocene times. This estimate is based on correlation of soil profile development with dated soil stratigraphy in the San Joaquin Valley. Scarp heights and lack of definitive evidence for recent left-lateral offset in Oak Creek Canyon indicates a significant and perhaps predominant vertical component of movement with: 1) a comparatively long recurrence interval and/or 2) a small component of left-lateral movement. Arching of late Pleistocene deposits in Oak Creek Canyon is consistent with right-lateral rather than left-lateral wrench faulting, suggesting a fluctuation in stresses along this part of the fault since late Pleistocene time.

Open-File Report↗