J. Doyle | USGS Science

USGS2011

The magnitude distribution of earthquakes near Southern California faults

We investigate seismicity near faults in the Southern California Earthquake Center Community Fault Model. We search for anomalously large events that might be signs of a characteristic earthquake distribution. We find that seismicity near major fault zones in Southern California is well modeled by a Gutenberg-Richter distribution, with no evidence of characteristic earthquakes within the resolution limits of the modern instrumental catalog. However, the b value of the locally observed magnitude distribution is found to depend on distance to the nearest mapped fault segment, which suggests that earthquakes nucleating near major faults are likely to have larger magnitudes relative to earthquakes nucleating far from major faults. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2006

February 2003 marine atmospheric conditions and the bora over the northern Adriatic

A winter oceanographic field experiment provided an opportunity to examine the atmospheric marine conditions over the northern Adriatic. Mean February winds are from a northeasterly direction over most of the Adriatic and a more northerly direction along the western coast. Wind speeds are fastest in jets over the NE coast during bora events and weakest in the mid-northwestern Adriatic. Diurnal air temperature cycles are smallest on the NE coast and largest in the midwestern Adriatic. The maximum sea-air difference is +10??C on the eastern coast and near zero on the midwestern Adriatic. Boras are northeasterly (from) wind events that sweep off Croatia and Slovenia, bringing slightly colder and drier air over the northern Adriatic. The main bora season is December to March. Winter 2002-2003 was normal for bora events. Synoptic-scale temporal variations are correlated over the northern Adriatic. Fastest Bora winds and highest wind stress over the northern Adriatic is concentrated in four topographically controlled jets. The strongest is the Senj Jet, while the Trieste Jet extends across the entire northern Adriatic. Between each two jets is a weak wind zone. The greatest mean net heat loss is in bora jets in the NE Adriatic, where it was -438 W m-2 and is weakest in the midwestern northern Adriatic, where it was near zero. Wind stress is concentrated over the NE half of Adriatic in four bora jets, while wind stress is weak in the NW Adriatic. There is significant variation in wind stress mean and standard deviation structure over the northern Adriatic with each bora event. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

USGS2000

Hydrological Aspects of Weather Prediction and Flood Warnings: Report of the Ninth Prospectus Development Team of the U.S. Weather Research Program

Among the many natural disasters that disrupt human and industrial activity in the United States each year, including tornadoes, hurricanes, extreme temperatures, and lightning, floods are among the most devastating and rank second in the loss of life. Indeed, the societal impact of floods has increased during the past few years and shows no sign of abating. Although the scientific questions associated with flooding and its accurate prediction are many and complex, an unprecedented opportunity now exists - in light of new observational and computing systems and infrastructures, a much improved understanding of small-scale meteorological and hydrological processes, and the availability of sophisticated numerical models and data assimilation systems - to attack the flood forecasting problem in a comprehensive manner that will yield significant new scientific insights and corresponding practical benefits. The authors present herein a set of recommendations for advancing our understanding of floods via the creation of natural laboratories situated in a variety of local meteorological and hydrological settings. Emphasis is given to floods caused by convection and cold season events, fronts and extratropical cyclones, orographic forcing, and hurricanes and tropical cyclones following landfall. Although the particular research strategies applied within each laboratory setting will necessarily vary, all will share the following principal elements: (a) exploitation of those couplings important to flooding that exist between meteorological and hydrological processes and models; (b) innovative use of operational radars, research radars, satellites, and rain gauges to provide detailed spatial characterizations of precipitation fields and rates, along with the use of this information in hydrological models and for improving and validating microphysical algorithms in meteorological models; (c) comparisons of quantitative precipitation estimation algorithms from both research (especially multiparameter) and operational radars against gauge data as well as output produced by meso- and storm-scale models; (d) use of data from dense, temporary river gauge networks to trace the fate of rain from its starting location in small basins to the entire stream and river network; and (e) sensitivity testing in the design and implementation of separate as well as coupled meteorological and hydrologic models, the latter designed to better represent those nonlinear feedbacks between the atmosphere and land that are known to play an important role in runoff prediction. Vital to this effort will be the creation of effective and sustained linkages between the historically separate though scientifically related disciplines of meteorology and hydrology, as well as their observational infrastructures and research methodologies.

Conference Paper↗