J. David Allan | USGS Science

USGS2019

Evidence for interactions among environmental stressors in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Co-occurrence of environmental stressors is ubiquitous in ecosystems, but cumulative effects are difficult to predict for effective indicator development. Individual stressors can amplify (synergies) or lessen (antagonisms) each other's impacts or have fully independent effects (additive). Here we use the Laurentian Great Lakes, where a multitude of stressors have been studied for decades, as a case study for considering insights from both a systematic literature review and an expert elicitation (or structured expert judgment) to identify stressor interactions. In our literature search for pairs of stressors and interaction-related keywords, relatively few studies (9%, or 6/65) supported additive interactions with independent stressor effects. Instead, both antagonisms (42%, or 27/65) and synergies (49%, or 32/65) were common. We found substantial evidence for interactions of invasive dreissenid mussels with nutrient loading and between pairs of invasive species (predominantly dreissenids × round goby), yet both sets of records included mixtures of synergies and antagonisms. Complete quantification of individual and joint effects of stressors was rare, but effect sizes for dreissenid mussels × nutrient loading supported an antagonism. Our expert elicitation included discussion in focus groups and a follow-up survey. This process highlighted the potential for synergies of nutrient loading with dreissenid mussels and climate change as seen from the literature review. The elicitation also identified additional potential interactions less explored in the literature, particularly synergies of nutrient loading with hypoxia and wetland loss. To stimulate future research, we built a conceptual model describing interactions among dreissenid mussels, climate change, and nutrient loading. Our case study illustrates the value of considering results from both elicitations and systematic reviews to overcome data limitations. The simultaneous occurrence of synergies and antagonisms in a single ecosystem underscores the challenge of predicting the cumulative effects of stressors to guide indicator development and other management and restoration decisions.

Ecological Indicators↗

USGS2014

Assessing and addressing the re-eutrophication of Lake Erie: central basin hypoxia

Relieving phosphorus loading is a key management tool for controlling Lake Erie eutrophication. During the 1960s and 1970s, increased phosphorus inputs degraded water quality and reduced central basin hypolimnetic oxygen levels which, in turn, eliminated thermal habitat vital to cold-water organisms and contributed to the extirpation of important benthic macroinvertebrate prey species for fishes. In response to load reductions initiated in 1972, Lake Erie responded quickly with reduced water-column phosphorus concentrations, phytoplankton biomass, and bottom-water hypoxia (dissolved oxygen < 2 mg/l). Since the mid-1990s, cyanobacteria blooms increased and extensive hypoxia and benthic algae returned. We synthesize recent research leading to guidance for addressing this re-eutrophication, with particular emphasis on central basin hypoxia. We document recent trends in key eutrophication-related properties, assess their likely ecological impacts, and develop load response curves to guide revised hypoxia-based loading targets called for in the 2012 Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement. Reducing central basin hypoxic area to levels observed in the early 1990s (ca. 2000 km 2 ) requires cutting total phosphorus loads by 46% from the 2003–2011 average or reducing dissolved reactive phosphorus loads by 78% from the 2005–2011 average. Reductions to these levels are also protective of fish habitat. We provide potential approaches for achieving those new loading targets, and suggest that recent load reduction recommendations focused on western basin cyanobacteria blooms may not be sufficient to reduce central basin hypoxia to 2000 km 2 .

Great Lakes;Lake Erie↗