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J. C. Risley

Publications and source records attributed to J. C. Risley.

6 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2009

Reducing streamflow forecast uncertainty: Application and qualitative assessment of the upper klamath river Basin, Oregon

The accuracy of streamflow forecasts depends on the uncertainty associated with future weather and the accuracy of the hydrologic model that is used to produce the forecasts. We present a method for streamflow forecasting where hydrologic model parameters are selected based on the climate state. Parameter sets for a hydrologic model are conditioned on an atmospheric pressure index defined using mean November through February (NDJF) 700-hectoPascal geopotential heights over northwestern North America [Pressure Index from Geopotential heights (PIG)]. The hydrologic model is applied in the Sprague River basin (SRB), a snowmelt-dominated basin located in the Upper Klamath basin in Oregon. In the SRB, the majority of streamflow occurs during March through May (MAM). Water years (WYs) 1980-2004 were divided into three groups based on their respective PIG values (high, medium, and low PIG). Low (high) PIG years tend to have higher (lower) than average MAM streamflow. Four parameter sets were calibrated for the SRB, each using a different set of WYs. The initial set used WYs 1995-2004 and the remaining three used WYs defined as high-, medium-, and low-PIG years. Two sets of March, April, and May streamflow volume forecasts were made using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). The first set of ESP simulations used the initial parameter set. Because the PIG is defined using NDJF pressure heights, forecasts starting in March can be made using the PIG parameter set that corresponds with the year being forecasted. The second set of ESP simulations used the parameter set associated with the given PIG year. Comparison of the ESP sets indicates that more accuracy and less variability in volume forecasts may be possible when the ESP is conditioned using the PIG. This is especially true during the high-PIG years (low-flow years). ?? 2009 American Water Resources Association.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS1995

Effects of selective forest clearing fertilization, and liming on the hydrology and water quality of a small tributary to the Quabbin Reservoir, central Massachusetts

Effects of selective forest clearing on water yield and water quality were investigated in a 308-hectare basin that drains to Quabbin Reservoir Watershed in central Massachusetts. The experimental basin and a nearby 280-hectare control basin were studied together for comparison. Streamflow was measured continuously and water-quality samples were collected biweekly in both basins from February 1985 through September 1989. During the same period, measurements of precipitation quantity and ground- water levels were made and samples were collected for determination of precipitation and ground-water quality. After an initial monitoring period to establish baseline hydrology and water quality in both basins, an area of red pine and white pine forest in the experimental basin was cleared. From October 1986 until April 1987, 23.8 percent of the total basal area was removed by clearcutting and thinning. Part of the cleared area was converted to rye and other field grasses, and the remainder was allowed to regrow naturally. Fertilizer and lime were applied to part of the cleared area. An additional 8.3 percent of basal area was cleared in fall 1988. Despite differences in bedrock geology, topography, and amount of wetland area, pre- treatment hydrology and chemistry of the two basins were similar. Biogeochemical reactions of the dilute mixture of sulfuric and nitric acids in precipitation with soils and rocks in the basins resulted in moderately buffered calcium-magnesium bicarbonate-type streamwater. During high flows, sulfate concentrations increased and alkalinity decreased. Selective forest clearing resulted in a slight increase in water yield during the year in which the clearing took place, particularly during the spring high-flow period, but flows returned to normal thereafter. Concurrent increases in solute flux were primarily a function of the increased water flux. No major alterations to biogeochemical processes were induced by the forest clearing, nor were any effects from the fertilizer or liming activity observed. The minimal effect observed from the clearing was attributed primarily to the limited area that was cleared, and the location of the cleared area in the headwaters of the basin (away from the riparian zone).

Massachusetts↗
USGS1994

Use of a precipitation-runoff model for simulating effects of forest management on streamflow in 11 small drainage basins, Oregon Coast Range

The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model of the U.S. Geological Survey was used to simulate the hydrologic effects of timber management in 11 small, upland drainage basins of the Coast Range in Oregon. The coefficients of determination for observed and simulated daily flow during the calibration periods ranged from 0.92 for the Flynn Creek Basin to 0.68 for the Priorli Creek Basin; percent error ranged from -0.25 for the Deer Creek Basin to -4.49 for the Nestucca River Basin. The coefficients of determination during the validation periods ranged from 0.90 for the Flynn Creek Basin to 0.66 for the Wind River Basin; percent error during the validation periods ranged from -0.91 for the Flynn Creek Basin to 22.3 for the Priorli Creek Basin. In addition to daily simulations, 42 storms were selected from the time-series periods in which the 11 basins were studied and used in hourly storm-mode simulations. Sources of simulation error included the quality of the input data, deficiencies in the PRMS model-algorithms, and the quality of parameter estimation. Times-series data from the Flynn Creek and Needle Branch Basins, collected during an earlier U.S. Geological Survey paired-watershed study, were used to evaluate the PRMS as a tool for predicting the hydrologic effects of timber-management practices. The Flynn Creek Basin remained forested and undisturbed during the data-collection period, while the Needle Branch Basin had been clearcut 82 percent at a midpoint during the period of data collection. Using the PRMS, streamflow at the Needle Branch Basin was simulated during the postlogging period using prelogging parameter values. Comparison of postlogging observed streamflow with the simulated data showed an increase in annual discharge volume of approximately 8 percent and a small increase in peak flows of from 1 to 2 percent. The simulated flows from the basins studied were generally insensitive to the number of hydrologic-response units used to replicate basin surface detail. The average number of hydrologic-response units used in the storm-period simulations was one-half the average number of hydrologic-response units used in the daily period simulations. With the exception of one basin, however, the coefficient of determination between observed and simulated daily flow differed by only 3 percent. Calibration and validation of the PRMS for 11 basins--that encompass a variety of forest, soil, and topographic conditions--provided regionalized parameter values. The parameter values assist the PRMS hydrologic simulations of other gaged and ungaged basins in the Coast Range with landscape conditions similar to those of the basins studied.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1994

Effects of storm paths on precipitation chemistry, and variations of within-storm chemistry during selected storms in central Massachusetts, 1986-87

Samples of precipitation from 31 storms were collected from October 1986 through December 1987 at a site near Quabbin Reservoir in central Massachusetts and were analyzed for pH, specific conductance, and concentrations of common chemical constituent. Twenty-four storms followed a conti- nental path west of the Appalachian Mountains. The remaining seven storms followed a coastal path east of the Appalachian Mountains along the Atlantic Coast. Precipitation from the continental storms was more acidic than precipitation from the coastal storms according to a nonparametric statistical com- parison. Because the continental storms had less volume, the loads of hydrogen ions and other common chemical constituents from both groups were not statistically different. The variability of within- storm precipitation chemistry was evaluated for 8 of the 31 storms. Seven of the storms showed evidence of suspended-particulate removal at levels between the cloud layer and the land surface during their early stages. The remaining storm, also the most acidic, showed evidence of suspended- particulate removal within the cloud layer as indicated by a relatively constant pH throughout the storm. Surface-air concentrations of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide before, during, and after each of the eight storms were compared to within-storm values of pH and precipitation. Seven of the storms were accompanied by decreased atmospheric concen- trations of both sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide in the early stages of the storm. For three of the storms, atmospheric concentrations of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide were higher during the 24-hour period after the storm than the 24-hour period pre- ceding the storm. Particulates in precipitation samples were analyzed for three storms. Biotite was the predominant mineral in two of the storms. Other minerals detected were garnet, quartz, gypsum, hematite, epidote, ilmenite, eggonite, halite, rutile, and organic ash.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1994

Estimating the magnitude and frequency of low flows of streams in Massachusetts

The report presents techniques used for estimating 7-day 2-year (7Q2) and 7-day 10-year (7Q10) flows at continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations, partial-record stations, and ungaged sites on streams in Massachusetts. A two-parameter log-normal probability distribution was used to compute low flows at 31 continuous-record stream-flow-gaging stations. Graphical and mathematical techniques were used to estimate low flows at partial-record stations. Regional regression techniques commonly are used to estimate 7Q2 and 7Q10 flows at ungaged stream sites. The development and application of a low-flow regression model is described. The model contains two parameters, mean and standard deviation, computed from separate regression equations that use total drainage area and basin relief as independent variables. The coefficients of determination of the mean and standard deviation regression equations are 0.964 and 0.960, respec- tively; the percentage of standard error of the regression of each equation are 35 and 34, respec- tively. The model is applicable for basins in Massachusetts having a drainage area of 5 to 150 square miles, a slope of less than 4 percent, and an area of stratified drift greater than 4 percent of the total drainage area. A computer program is presented that can be used to compute 7Q2 and 7Q10 flows and the 95-percent intervals of confidence and prediction for a given basin.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗