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Geology topics

J. Barry Grand

Publications and source records attributed to J. Barry Grand.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2013

Structured decision making

Wildlife management is a decision-focused discipline. It needs to integrate traditional wildlife science and social science to identify actions that are most likely to achieve the array of desires society has surrounding wildlife populations. Decision science, a vast field with roots in economics, operations research, and psychology, offers a rich set of tools to help wildlife managers frame, decompose, analyze, and synthesize their decisions. The nature of wildlife management as a decision science has been recognized since the inception of the field, but formal methods of decision analysis have been underused. There is tremendous potential for wildlife management to grow further through the use of formal decision analysis. First, the wildlife science and human dimensions of wildlife disciplines can be readily integrated. Second, decisions can become more efficient. Third, decisions makers can communicate more clearly with stakeholders and the public. Fourth, good, intuitive wildlife managers, by explicitly examining how they make decisions, can translate their art into a science that is readily used by the next generation.

Book chapter↗
USGS2012

Population ecology of breeding Pacific common eiders on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

Populations of Pacific common eiders (Somateria mollissima v-nigrum) on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) in western Alaska declined by 50–90% from 1957 to 1992 and then stabilized at reduced numbers from the early 1990s to the present. We investigated the underlying processes affecting their population dynamics by collection and analysis of demographic data from Pacific common eiders at 3 sites on the YKD (1991–2004) for 29 site-years. We examined variation in components of reproduction, tested hypotheses about the influence of specific ecological factors on life-history variables, and investigated their relative contributions to local population dynamics. Reproductive output was low and variable, both within and among individuals, whereas apparent survival of adult females was high and relatively invariant (0.89 ± 0.005). All reproductive parameters varied across study sites and years. Clutch initiation dates ranged from 4 May to 28 June, with peak (modal) initiation occurring on 26 May. Females at an island study site consistently initiated clutches 3–5 days earlier in each year than those on 2 mainland sites. Population variance in nest initiation date was negatively related to the peak, suggesting increased synchrony in years of delayed initiation. On average, total clutch size (laid) ranged from 4.8 to 6.6 eggs, and declined with date of nest initiation. After accounting for partial predation and non-viability of eggs, average clutch size at hatch ranged from 2.0 to 5.8 eggs. Within seasons, daily survival probability (DSP) of nests was lowest during egg-laying and late-initiation dates. Estimated nest survival varied considerably across sites and years (mean = 0.55, range: 0.06–0.92), but process variance in nest survival was relatively low (0.02, CI: 0.01–0.05), indicating that most variance was likely attributed to sampling error. We found evidence that observer effects may have reduced overall nest survival by 0.0–0.36 across site-years. Study sites with lower sample sizes and more frequent visitations appeared to experience greater observer effects. In general, Pacific common eiders exhibited high spatio-temporal variance in reproductive components. Larger clutch sizes and high nest survival at early initiation dates suggested directional selection favoring early nesting. However, stochastic environmental effects may have precluded response to this apparent selection pressure. Our results suggest that females breeding early in the season have the greatest reproductive value, as these birds lay the largest clutches and have the highest probability of successfully hatching. We developed stochastic, stage-based, matrix population models that incorporated observed spatio-temporal (process) variance and co-variation in vital rates, and projected the stable stage distribution () and population growth rate (λ). We used perturbation analyses to examine the relative influence of changes in vital rates on λ and variance decomposition to assess the proportion of variation in λ explained by process variation in each vital rate. In addition to matrix-based λ, we estimated λ using capture–recapture approaches, and log-linear regression. We found the stable age distribution for Pacific common eiders was weighted heavily towards experienced adult females (≥4 yr of age), and all calculations of λ indicated that the YKD population was stable to slightly increasing (λmatrix = 1.02, CI: 1.00–1.04); λreverse-capture–recapture = 1.05, CI: 0.99–1.11; λlog-linear = 1.04, CI: 0.98–1.10). Perturbation analyses suggested the population would respond most dramatically to changes in adult female survival (relative influence of adult survival was 1.5 times that of fecundity), whereas retrospective variation in λ was primarily explained by fecundity parameters (60%), particularly duckling survival (42%). Among components of fecundity, sensitivities were highest for duckling survival, suggesti

Alaska↗
USGS2012

Estimating tag loss of the Atlantic Horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, using a multi-state model

The Atlantic Horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, is a valuable resource along the Mid-Atlantic coast which has, in recent years, experienced new management paradigms due to increased concern about this species role in the environment. While current management actions are underway, many acknowledge the need for improved and updated parameter estimates to reduce the uncertainty within the management models. Specifically, updated and improved estimates of demographic parameters such as adult crab survival in the regional population of interest, Delaware Bay, could greatly enhance these models and improve management decisions. There is however, some concern that difficulties in tag resighting or complete loss of tags could be occurring. As apparent from the assumptions of a Jolly-Seber model, loss of tags can result in a biased estimate and underestimate a survival rate. Given that uncertainty, as a first step towards estimating an unbiased estimate of adult survival, we first took steps to estimate the rate of tag loss. Using data from a double tag mark-resight study conducted in Delaware Bay and Program MARK, we designed a multi-state model to allow for the estimation of mortality of each tag separately and simultaneously.

Delaware, New Jersey↗
USGS2011

Trap style influences wild pig behavior and trapping success

Despite the efforts of many natural resource professionals, wild pig ( Sus scrofa ) populations are expanding in many areas of the world. Although many creative techniques for controlling pig populations are being explored, trapping has been and still is the most commonly used method of population control for many public and private land managers. We conducted an observational study to examine the efficiency of 2 frequently used trap styles: a small, portable box‐style trap and a larger, semi‐permanent, corral‐style trap. We used game cameras to examine patterns of trap entry by wild pigs around each style of trap, and we conducted a trapping session to compare trapping success between trap styles. Adult female and juvenile wild pigs entered both styles of trap more readily than did adult males, and adult males seemed particularly averse to entering box traps. Less than 10% of adult male visits to box traps resulted in entries, easily the least percentage of any class at any style of trap. Adult females entered corral traps approximately 2.2 times more often per visit than box traps and re‐entered corral traps >2 times more frequently. Juveniles entered and re‐entered both box and corral traps at similar rates. Overall (all‐class) entry‐per‐visit rates at corral traps (0.71) were nearly double that of box traps (0.37). Subsequent trapping data supported these preliminary entry data; the capture rate for corral traps was >4 times that of box traps. Our data suggest that corral traps are temporally and economically superior to box traps with respect to efficiency; that is, corral traps effectively trap more pigs per trap night at a lower cost per pig than do box traps

Georgia↗
USGS2010

Variation in detection among passive infrared triggered-cameras used in wildlife research

Precise and accurate estimates of demographics such as age structure, productivity, and density are necessary in determining habitat and harvest management strategies for wildlife populations. Surveys using automated cameras are becoming an increasingly popular tool for estimating these parameters. However, most camera studies fail to incorporate detection probabilities, leading to parameter underestimation. The objective of this study was to determine the sources of heterogeneity in detection for trail cameras that incorporate a passive infrared (PIR) triggering system sensitive to heat and motion. Images were collected at four baited sites within the Conecuh National Forest, Alabama, using three cameras at each site operating continuously over the same seven-day period. Detection was estimated for four groups of animals based on taxonomic group and body size. Our hypotheses of detection considered variation among bait sites and cameras. The best model (w=0.99) estimated different rates of detection for each camera in addition to different detection rates for four animal groupings. Factors that explain this variability might include poor manufacturing tolerances, variation in PIR sensitivity, animal behavior, and species-specific infrared radiation. Population surveys using trail cameras with PIR systems must incorporate detection rates for individual cameras. Incorporating time-lapse triggering systems into survey designs should eliminate issues associated with PIR systems.

Proceedings of the Annual Conference of the Southe↗
USGS2009

Population dynamics of long-tailed ducks breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

Population estimates for long-tailed ducks in North America have declined by nearly 50% over the past 30 years. Life history and population dynamics of this species are difficult to ascertain, because the birds nest at low densities across a broad range of habitat types. Between 1991 and 2004, we collected information on productivity and survival of long-tailed ducks at three locations on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. Clutch size averaged 7.1 eggs, and nesting success averaged 30%. Duckling survival to 30 days old averaged 10% but was highly variable among years, ranging from 0% to 25%. Apparent annual survival of adult females based on mark-recapture of nesting females was estimated at 74%. We combined these estimates of survival and productivity into a matrix-based population model, which predicted an annual population decline of 19%. Elasticities indicated that population growth rate (λ) was most sensitive to changes in adult female survival. Further, the relatively high sensitivity of λ to duckling survival suggests that low duckling survival may be a bottleneck to productivity in some years. These data represent the first attempt to synthesize a population model for this species. Although our analyses were hampered by the small sample sizes inherent in studying a dispersed nesting species, our model provides a basis for management actions and can be enhanced as additional data become available.

Alaska↗
USGS2007

Variation in northern bobwhite demography along two temporal scales

Quantification and understanding of demographic variation across intra- and inter-annual temporal scales can benefit from the development of theoretical models of evolution and applied conservation of species. We used long-term survey data for northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus) collected at the northern and southern extent of its geographic range to develop matrix population models which would allow investigation of intra- and inter-annual patterns in bobwhite population dynamics. We first evaluated intra-annual patterns in the importance of a seasonal demographic rate to asymptotic population growth rate with prospective perturbation analysis (elasticity analysis). We then conducted retrospective analysis (life table response experiments) of inter-annual patterns in the contribution of observed changes in demography to the observed change in population growth rate. Survival in the earliest age class during the nonbreeding season had the greatest potential influence in both the northern and southern populations. Examination of inter-annual variation in demography indicated that variation in nonbreeding season survival in the earliest age class contributed the most to observed changes in population growth rate in the northern population. In contrast, changes in fertility in the earliest age class in the southern population had the greatest influence on changes in population growth rate. Prospective elasticity analyses highlight the similarities in bobwhite demography throughout different parts of its geographic range, while retrospective life table response experiments revealed important patterns in the temporal differences of bobwhite life history at the northern and southern extent of its geographic range. ?? 2007 The Society of Population Ecology and Springer.

Population Ecology↗
USGS2007

Population inertia and its sensitivity to changes in vital rates and population structure

Because the (st)age structure of a population may rarely be stable, studies of transient population dynamics and population momentum are becoming ever more popular. Yet, studies of "population momentum" are restricted in the sense that they describe the inertia of population size resulting from a demographic transition to the stationary population growth rate. Although rarely mentioned, inertia in population size is a general phenomenon and can be produced by any demographic transition or perturbation. Because population size is of central importance in demography, conservation, and management, formulas relating the sensitivity of population inertia to changes in underlying vital rates and population structure could provide much-needed insight into the dynamics of populations with unstable (st)age structure. Here, we derive such formulas, which are readily computable, and provide examples of their potential use in studies of life history and applied arenas of population study. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology↗
USGS2006

Renesting by dusky Canada geese on the Copper River Delta, Alaska

The population of dusky Canada geese ( Branta canadensis occidentalis ; hereafter duskies) breeding on the Copper River Delta (CRD), Alaska, USA, has been in long-term decline, largely as a result of reduced productivity. Estimates of renesting rates by duskies may be useful for adjusting estimates of the size of the breeding population derived from aerial surveys and for understanding population dynamics. We used a marked population of dusky females to obtain estimates of renesting propensity and renesting interval on the CRD, 1999–2000. Continuation nests, replacement nests initiated without a break in the laying sequence, resulted only after first nests were destroyed in the laying stage with ≤4 eggs laid. Renesting propensity declined with nest age from 72% in mid-laying to 30% in early incubation. Between first nests and renests, mean interval was 11.9 ± 0.6 days, mean distance was 74.5 m (range 0–214 m), and clutch size declined 0.9 ± 0.4 eggs. We incorporated our renesting estimates and available estimates of other nesting parameters into an individual-based model to predict the proportion of first nests, continuation nests, and renests, and to examine female success on the CRD, 1997–2000. Our model predicted that 19–36% of nests each year were continuation nests and renests. Also, through 15 May (the approx. date of breeding ground surveys), 1.1–1.3 nests were initiated per female. Thus, the number of nests per female would have a significant, though relatively consistent, effect on adjusting the relation between numbers of nests found on ground surveys versus numbers of birds seen during aerial surveys. We also suggest a method that managers could use to predict nests per female using nest success of early nests. Our model predicted that relative to observed estimates of nest success, female success was 32–100% greater, due to replacement nests. Thus, although nest success remains low, production for duskies was higher than previously thought. For dusky Canada geese, managers need to consider both continuation nests and renests in designing surveys and in calculating adjustment factors for the expansion of aerial survey data using nest densities.

Alaska↗
USGS2006

Population dynamics of Greater Scaup breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

Populations of greater scaup ( Aythya marila ) remained relatively stable during a period when populations of lesser scaup ( A. affinis ) have declined from historic levels. To assist in describing these differences in population trends, from 1991 through 2000, we studied the survival, nesting ecology, and productivity of greater scaup on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, to develop a model of population dynamics. We located nests, radio-marked females for renesting studies, estimated duckling survival, and leg-banded females to examine nest site fidelity and annual survival. Greater scaup initiated egg laying later than other species, and most clutches (>80%) were initiated over 20 days each year. We located 1,056 nests; nest success ranged from 7 to 61 % among years. Following loss of their first clutch, 51 % of radio-tagged females attempted to renest. Duckling survival to 30 days of age was 37.5%. Our best model suggested that annual survival did not vary among years and averaged 81 %. Survival rate was positively related to structural body size. Only 8 of 214 banded individuals were reported as recovered (1 each in Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Washington, and Alaska and 3 in California). Using a stochastic model, we estimated that, on average, breeding females produced 0.57 young females/nesting season. We combined this estimate of productivity with our annual estimates of adult survival and an assumed population growth rate of 1.0, then solved for an estimate of first-year survival (0.40). Under these conditions the predicted stable age distribution of breeding females (i.e., the nesting population) was 15.1% 1-year-old, 4.1% 2-year-old first-time breeders, and 80.8% 2-year-old and older, experienced breeders. We subjected this stochastic model to perturbation analyses to examine the relative effects of demographic parameters on k. The relative effects of productivity and adult survival on the population growth rate were 0.26 and 0.72, respectively. Thus, compared to productivity, proportionally equivalent changes in annual survival would have 2.8 times the effect on k. However, when we examined annual variation in predicted population size using standardized regression coefficients, productivity explained twice as much variation as annual survival. Thus, management actions focused on changes in survival or productivity have the ability to influence population size; however, substantially larger changes in productivity are required to influence population trends.

Wildlife Monographs↗
USGS1999

Patterns of variation in size and composition of Greater Scaup eggs: Are they related?

We studied egg size variation of Greater Scaup ( Aythya marila ) nesting on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska from 1991-1996. Mean egg size was 64.36±0.03 (SE) ml. Egg size did not vary with clutch size or serve as an index of body size. There was less than 2% overlap in total clutch volumes for clutches of different sizes indicating that phenotypic clutch size-egg size trade-offs are not occurring among individuals. At the population level, Greater Scaup have less variation in egg size than other species of waterfowl. The proportion of variation in egg size caused by differences among females was 0.20, caused by differences within females among years was 0.25, and caused by differences within females and years (i.e., clutches) was 0.56. The proportion of egg lipid decreased with increasing egg size while the proportion of egg protein increased with egg size. Thus, Greater Scaup appear to trade-off lipid for protein as egg size increases. The proportion of variation that was due to differences among females in total egg protein was 0.79 and in total egg lipid was 0.49. We conclude that in the absence of a fitness trade-off between clutch size and egg size, selection has reduced among-individual variation in egg size.

Alaska↗
USGS1998

Effect of lead poisoning on spectacled eider survival rates

Spectacled eider ( Somateria fischeri ) populations on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, declined rapidly through the 1980s, and low adult female survival was suggested as the likely cause of the decline. We used mark-resighting techniques to study annual survival rates of adult female spectacled eiders at 2 sites on the Y-K Delta during 1993-96. Our data suggest survival rates may differ among sites. However, a model fit to a subset of data on females for which we knew lead levels in blood suggests lead exposure influences survival. Adult females exposed to lead prior to hatching their eggs survived at a much lower rate (0.44 ?? 0.10) each year than females not exposed to lead before hatch (0.78 ?? 0.05). We suggest most mortality from lead exposure occurs over winter, and the related reduction in adult survival may be impeding recovery of local populations. We encourage managers to curtail input of lead shot into the environment.

Alaska↗
USGS1998

A model of northern pintail productivity and population growth rate

Our objective was to synthesize individual components of reproductive ecology into a single estimate of productivity and to assess the relative effects of survival and productivity on population dynamics. We used information on nesting ecology, renesting potential, and duckling survival of northern pintails ( Anas acuta ) collected on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, 1991-95, to model the number of ducklings produced under a range of nest success and duckling survival probabilities. Using average values of 25% nest success, 11% duckling survival, and 56% renesting probability from our study population, we calculated that all young in our population were produced by 13% of the breeding females, and that early-nesting females produced more young than later-nesting females. Further, we calculated, on average, that each female produced only 0.16 young females/nesting season. We combined these results with estimates of first-year and adult survival to examine the growth rate (X) of the population and the relative contributions of these demographic parameters to that growth rate. Contrary to aerial survey data, the population projection model suggests our study population is declining rapidly (X = 0.6969). The relative effects on population growth rate were 0.1175 for reproductive success, 0.1175 for first-year survival, and 0.8825 for adult survival. Adult survival had the greatest influence on X for our population, and this conclusion was robust over a range of survival and productivity estimates. Given published estimates of annual survival for adult females (61%), our model suggested nest success and duckling survival need to increase to approximately 40% to achieve population stability. We discuss reasons for the apparent discrepancy in population trends between our model and aerial surveys in terms of bias in productivity and survival estimates.

Alaska↗
USGS1997

Habitat use by nesting and brood rearing northern pintails on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

We studied habitat use by nesting and brood-rearing northern pintails ( Anas acuta ) on the coastal Yukon-Kuskokwim (Y-K) Delta, 1991-93. We used a digital habitat map constructed from color infrared aerial photos to assign habitat types to nest and brood locations and estimate habitat availability. Sixty-nine percent of females nested on slough banks in highly saline, tidally influenced habitats where we observed few mammalian predators. Nesting pintails likely preferred slough banks because they were higher and well drained early in the nesting season. Radiomarked females selected moderately saline habitats that were only occasionally or rarely influenced by tides for brood rearing. Eighty percent of females that nested in saline habitats moved their broods to less saline habitats, and those that nested in preferred brood-rearing habitats never moved to more saline habitats to rear their broods. Managers should be aware that in coastal wetlands the proximity of good-quality nesting and brood rearing habitats is important, and the distribution of nesting pintails may not reflect the distribution of broods and vice versa.

Alaska↗
USGS1997

Survival of spectacled eider adult females and ducklings during brood rearing

We studied survival of adult female and duckling spectacled eiders ( Somateria fischeri ) during brood rearing on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska from 1993 to 1995. Duckling survival to 30 days of age averaged 34% with a 95% confidence interval from 25 to 47%. Half (49%) of radiomarked adult females had lost all their ducklings by 30 days after hatch. Most (74%) duckling mortality occurred in the first 10 days. Adult female survival during the first 30 days of brood rearing was 93 ± 3% (SE). Females died from lead poisoning, as a result of ingesting lead shot, and predation. Mortality of adult females during brood rearing is probably higher than during other times of the year. Low adult female survival during the breeding season may be contributing to the overall population decline of spectacled eiders.

Alaska↗
USGS1996

Survival of northern pintail ducklings on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

We studied survival rates of Northern Pintail ( Anas acuta ; hereafter pintail) broods and ducklings along the lower Kashunuk River on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska. Survival rates were determined for 770 ducklings in 111 broods. Brood sizes at hatch were smaller in 1993 versus 1991 and 1992. Duckling survival rates were lower than those reported in previous studies and differed among years. Survival rates of ducklings declined with hatching date at a rate of 0.6% per day. Most mortality occurred during the first 10 days after hatch. Duckling survival rates were correlated with reported annual and seasonal variation in nesting success. This covariation probably results in large geographic and annual fluctuations in pintail production on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. Early nesting pintails had better nesting success and duckling survival, which may offset higher nutritional costs of early nesting through higher recruitment.

Alaska↗
USGS1996

Variation in egg size of the northern pintail

Egg size is an important determinant of reproductive investment by birds. For many species, total investment in a clutch is limited by the size of stored reserves (Ankney and MacInnes 1978, Esler and Grand 1994a). Egg size determines the unit by which these stored reserves are partitioned. Individual females in most species of waterfowl show a high repeatability for egg size, implying that individual either cannot, or do not, alter their egg size in response to varying environmental conditions (batt and Prince 1979, Duncan 1987, Laurila and Hario 1988, Lessells et al 1989, Flint and Sedinger 1992). Thus differences in egg size appear to represent different reproductive strategies among individuals. Fitness can be measured by the number of offspring an individual contributes to a population. Egg size may be related to fitness in some species fo waterfowl as young from larger eggs are better able to survive extreme conditions (Ankney 1980, Thomas and Brown 1988). Birds laying larger clutches are almost always more fit as they fledge more young (Lessells 1986, Rockwell et al 1987, Flint 1993). These fitness patterns create the potential for a trade-off between clutch size and egg size where females laying large clutches of small eggs have the same fitness as females laying smaller clutches of large eggs. The fact that Northern Pintails ( Anas acuta ) utilize stored reserves (Mann and Sedinger 1993, esler and Grand 1994a) and have a high repeatability for egg size (i.e. egg size is fixed) (Duncan 1987), makes them candidates to engage in clutch size=egg size trade-offs (Rowher 1988, Rowher and Eisenhauer 1989). An inverse relationship between egg size and clutch size would be indicative of a phenotypic trade-off among these fitness components. Our goal in this study was to describe egg size variation in Northern Pintails (hereafter pintails) with regard to female age, body size, clutch size, year, initiation date, and nesting attempt. We compare our results to those from other populations of nesting pintails and discuss whether phenotypic clutch size-egg size tradeoffs exist for pintails.

Alaska↗